In today’s briefing:
- Asian Equities: A Stupendous Earnings Quarter; Asia Matching US in Upgrades
- Morning Market Notes: For Crude Oil Prices, a Slow and Steady Rise, or Extreme Volatility?
- Oil futures: Brent pulls back on reports of US-Iran deal
- CX Daily: How a Ponzi Scheme Fleeced China’s Elderly
- CX Daily: China Hunts for a New Auto Engine
- CX Daily: At WAIC, China’s AI Boom Runs Into Commercial Reality
- US: Data Deferring Action
- Thanks for the Memory..
Asian Equities: A Stupendous Earnings Quarter; Asia Matching US in Upgrades
- As the April-June quarter earnings season winds down, positive surprises outnumber disappointments. Consensus earnings estimates keep getting upgraded in Asia and the US. Asian EPS upgrade has lately outpaced US’s.
- Over the last month, consensus 2026 EPS estimate of Asia-ex-Japan has been upgraded 4.4%, driven by Korea (12.8%), Taiwan (5.8%), Thailand (5.5%). 105 of 162 market-sectors have seen EPS upgrades.
- The encouraging signs are: breadth across a wide range of sectors and not driven by AI capex only. Sectors not directly linked to AI exuberance are among top earnings gainers.
Morning Market Notes: For Crude Oil Prices, a Slow and Steady Rise, or Extreme Volatility?
- Oil market participants are now trying to decide if the prompt NYMEX crude oil contract can challenge the upper end of our previously delineated trading range.
- We will see over the next few days whether traders are anticipating “duration,” i.e. a further tightening of the market, or renewed strikes if President Trump’s patience runs out again.
- We will be so bold to suggest that the “duration” scenario would imply a slow and progressive rise in oil prices, whereas the military scenario would imply increased volatility.
Oil futures: Brent pulls back on reports of US-Iran deal
- Crude oil futures pared earlier gains Tuesday on reports a US-Iran peace deal was close, after fresh attacks on shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Oman pushed benchmarks higher.
- Oct26 ICE Brent futures were up 1.3% from Monday’s close at $88.89/b at 2022 BST, having earlier topped $90/b, while Sep26 NYMEX WTI was 1.4% higher at higher at $83.24/b .
- Benchmarks softened after Pakistan signalled progress on an Iran-US deal that could see commercial shipping return to the Strait of Hormuz.
CX Daily: How a Ponzi Scheme Fleeced China’s Elderly
- TOP STORIES In Depth: How a Ponzi Scheme Fleeced China’s Elderly In early August 2023, a 69-year-old retiree named Li Chunlin made what he believed was a shrewd financial decision.
- A “little steward” — the term used by sales representatives at Dalian Shanhaihui Development Group Co. Ltd.
CX Daily: China Hunts for a New Auto Engine
- TOP STORIES In Depth: China Hunts for a New Auto Engine For years, China’s booming automotive market served as a primary engine propelling the nation’s retail growth.
- But as the calendar turned to 2026, that once-dependable engine suddenly stalled.
- FINANCE & ECONOMY Exclusive: China Widens Tax Net to Offshore Insurance Chinese mainland tax authorities have started levying personal income tax on the returns of offshore insurance policies, closing a longstanding regulatory loophole as global financial data sharing improves, Caixin has learned.
CX Daily: At WAIC, China’s AI Boom Runs Into Commercial Reality
- TOP STORIES In Depth: At WAIC, China’s AI Boom Runs Into Commercial Reality The World Artificial Intelligence Conference (WAIC) in Shanghai opened this year with the buzz of a trade fair at full tilt — and the unease of an industry under pressure to show it can turn technical advances into durable businesses.
- FINANCE & ECONOMY Caixin Explains: How China’s New Offshore Trust Rules Close Tax Loopholes China’s wealth management industry is scrambling to assess the impact of new regulations that target longstanding loopholes for offshore trusts.
- China’s Entrusted Local Pension Funds Post 5.8% Annual Return The portion of China’s local pension funds entrusted to a state-backed council for investment generated a 5.76% return last year, marking the ninth consecutive year of gains despite market volatility.
US: Data Deferring Action
- US payrolls and CPI should determine whether the Fed hikes in September, but neither release for July signalled an immediate need, so action should be deferred.
- The latest inflation impulse is around a target-consistent level, although the sticky-price rate is 3.5% saar. We doubt the problem is solved, but it seems uncompelling.
- A high evidential hurdle needs clearing to break dovish assumptions. We doubt the Fed will clear it, even as the ECB prepares its second and the BoE belatedly goes once.
Thanks for the Memory..
- July was a month of market mean reversion; stocks that were up more than 100% in the first half, fell back an average of 25% in July, while stocks that were down more than 50% rallied by an average of 11%.
- In most cases, this still left the longer term themes intact, but for those who live and die by monthly returns it is fair to say it was a tough month.
- The biggest hits came in the crowded tech hardware stocks, where we discovered at the end of the month one particularly large and heavily leveraged fund was forced into a dramatic unwind.
💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma
Sign Up for Free
The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network
- ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
- ✓ Personalised Alerts
- ✓ Custom Watchlists
- ✓ Company Data and News
- ✓ Events & Webinars
