In today’s briefing:
- China & HK: The Long Road Back
- Mandatory Tender Offer for All Remaining Shares in Korea – Lawmakers Trying to Make This Into Law
- Mergers in Korea to Be Completed Based on Fair Valuation Method Rather Than Average Market Prices
- Elliot Wave Calms on SGX IODEX: Monetizing the Iron Ore Curve Amidst Middle East Shipping Frictions
- Cambodia Rubber Sector Grows in May-June as Production and Industrial Demand Advance
- US Treasuries: Panic Creeps In as Bessent Starts Dancing!!
- The First-Mile View on Commodities Making News (20 Aug 2026)
- CX Daily: Game Studios Have Bought Into AI, but Players Still Aren’t Sold
- Oil futures: Crude extends rally as Iran tightens grip on Hormuz
- Middle East FX, August 20th 2026
China & HK: The Long Road Back
- China & HK positioning is turning. Relative positioning is strengthening, flows have turned positive and more managers are moving overweight.
- Buying is highly selective. Managers are rotating towards AI infrastructure, semiconductor equipment and advanced technology, while reducing exposure to recent consumer and platform winners.
- The EM Big 4 has been reshaped. China now carries similar weight to Taiwan and South Korea, but offers a far more diversified range of underlying exposures.
Mandatory Tender Offer for All Remaining Shares in Korea – Lawmakers Trying to Make This Into Law
- I believe the mandatory tender offer for all remaining shares is likely to be passed into law sometime in 2H 2026/1H 2027.
- If this is finally made into law, it will have a positive impact on the entire Korean stock market (reduced corporate governance concerns related to M&A tender offers).
- Democratic Party lawmaker Park Hong-bae has proposed a Capital Markets Act amendment requiring a mandatory tender offer for all remaining shares.
Mergers in Korea to Be Completed Based on Fair Valuation Method Rather Than Average Market Prices
- An amendment to Capital Markets Act (mergers in Korea to be completed on fair valuation basis rather than average market prices) was passed at the National Assembly’s plenary session.
- It is likely that this amendment will be made into law by the end of this year.
- This is clearly a step in the right direction and takes Korea another step closer to reducing corporate governance problems that have persistently impacted lower relative valuations versus global peers.
Elliot Wave Calms on SGX IODEX: Monetizing the Iron Ore Curve Amidst Middle East Shipping Frictions
- Iron ore has been relatively steady in the last three years after a highly volatile seven years before that. Market forces currently pushing IODEX in different directions.
- Major drivers include declining profitability in the Chinese Steel Sector, and the global oil price situation, mainly driven by geopolitical risks and war.
- We discuss a DEC26 options strategy aimed at monetizing iron ore volatility in the current range.
Cambodia Rubber Sector Grows in May-June as Production and Industrial Demand Advance
- June rubber production surged 36% month-on-month to 38,500 tonnes.
- Natural rubber exports jumped 32.29% month-on-month in June.
- Tire exports rose 44.22% YoY to over US$630 million during Jan-April 2026.
US Treasuries: Panic Creeps In as Bessent Starts Dancing!!
- On August 19th, Secretary Bessent implemented the most significant intervention in the US long-end bond market in decades by doubling off-schedule buybacks in 10-to-30-year sector to at least $4 billion.
- This approach compresses long-end yields by reducing duration supply rather than relying on outright Federal Reserve purchases. However, as Japan’s experience shows, it also entails significant long-term consequences.
- The United States faces a trilemma: it cannot simultaneously suppress long-end yields, maintain dollar credibility, and control inflation. The current administration is prioritizing yield management over the other objectives.
The First-Mile View on Commodities Making News (20 Aug 2026)
- This edition centers on two shocks arriving in the same week: USDA’s 12 August WASDE delivered a bigger-than-expected corn yield cut alongside a wheat trim, compounding a Black Sea supply disruption, while a faltering Indian monsoon and Vietnamese dry spells point to a separate El Nino pattern building into the fourth quarter across sugar and coffee.
- Novorossiysk’s two disabled terminals remove roughly 15.6 million tons of annual Russian wheat export capacity, arriving as Treefera’s US winter wheat model had already tracked harvested area down to 9.81 million hectares for the season just completed.
- Treefera’s US Corn model reads 12 August yield at 185.9 bushels per acre, 5.2 bu/ac above USDA’s post-WASDE figure, a gap that has narrowed toward Treefera’s estimate in each of the last six seasons.
CX Daily: Game Studios Have Bought Into AI, but Players Still Aren’t Sold
- In Depth: Game Studios Have Bought Into AI, but Players Still Aren’t Sold In early August, sweltering heat in Shanghai did little to keep visitors away from ChinaJoy, China’s largest gaming expo.
- Crowds packed the halls, queuing for demos, collecting merchandise and posing with cosplayers.
- Most were in their 20s.
Oil futures: Crude extends rally as Iran tightens grip on Hormuz
- Crude oil futures were higher for a fifth session on Thursday as benchmarks cemented solid monthly gains amid growing concerns of a renewed supply crunch.
- Oct26 ICE Brent futures were 2.2% higher at $93.59/b (2040 BST), while Sep26 NYMEX WTI was at $86.66/b , up 2.7% versus Wednesday’s settle.
- The Strait of Hormuz remains the driving factor for oil and while the US claims that the narrow waterway is open, Iran continues to throttle tanker shipments with the threat of attacks.
Middle East FX, August 20th 2026
- Saudi’s industrial production rises in June. SAMA’s half-year data showing deposit growth outpacing credit’s.
- Fitch affirms Kuwait’s sovereign credit rating.
- Trump threatens again Oman. And..Bahrain’s 5-year yield above Egypt.
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