In today’s briefing:
- SHEIN (625 HK): Round-Trip to Flat on IPO Debut; 95% Locked Up; Accumulate at HK$43–49, FV HK$70
- MiniMax (100 HK): The Unlock Is Today. Take Profit Now, Reload Ahead of November’s Passive Bid
- Montage (6809 HK): 2Q26, Financials Up with Capacities, No Concern About Korea Probe
- Water Oasis: Six Years Later, the Value Trap Never Arrived
- Intel @ Deutsche Bank Technology Conference. Key Takeaways & Full Transcript
- Korea Small Cap Gem #69: Mezoo
- Haier Smart Home (6690 HK): No Fireworks for Now; Searching for Growth Everywhere
- Toyobo (3101 JP) – Absorbing the Impact of Rising Naphtha Costs
- Cathay Pacific (293 HK): Synthetic Expert Call Transcript (02 Sep 2026)
- Aspial Lifestyle Limited – Shining Brighter
SHEIN (625 HK): Round-Trip to Flat on IPO Debut; 95% Locked Up; Accumulate at HK$43–49, FV HK$70
- SHEIN’s round-trip debut to flat is a float signal, not a price signal. With 95% of shares locked up, near-term price action reflects flow, not fundamentals.
- Three post-listing developments reset the risk picture: a US$494m earnings reversal, France’s live garment levy, and a US$3.5bn recapitalisation outflow.
- ACCUMULATE, FV HK$70 (US$38bn) on ~0.9× LTM EV/Sales — a H&M-level discount reflecting tariff drag, governance concentration, and a 5% free float.
MiniMax (100 HK): The Unlock Is Today. Take Profit Now, Reload Ahead of November’s Passive Bid
- Southbound investors accumulated 32.8m shares — 9.4% of the company — in four weeks following Stock Connect inclusion, validating our demand thesis and absorbing the July placing overhang entirely.
- The 1H26 interim result delivered revenue up 3.8 times year on year, with the half-year alone exceeding FY2025 full-year revenue; gross margin cleared our 29.7% pre-committed discipline line.
- We maintain BULLISH with FV HK$340 — 18x FY2028E EV/sales of US$700m plus net cash — trim at spot, reload below HK$300, position ahead of the November global index add.
Montage (6809 HK): 2Q26, Financials Up with Capacities, No Concern About Korea Probe
- In 2Q26, Revenue growth accelerated due to the start of Shanghai testing center and TSMC contract.
- We believe the packaging and testing in Singapore will raise revenue in 2027.
- However, we consider the gross margins in the first two quarters to be unrepresentative.
Water Oasis: Six Years Later, the Value Trap Never Arrived
- Beauty services now exceed 90% of revenue, validating the service-led thesis while recent growth suggests the model is still economically relevant.
- Our concerns around moat, disclosure and management remain partly valid, but the accounting deterioration and value-trap outcomes we feared never materialized.
- The biggest lesson is valuation: Water Oasis did not need to become exceptional; it only needed to remain durable enough at a deeply discounted price.
Intel @ Deutsche Bank Technology Conference. Key Takeaways & Full Transcript
- Intel 18A progressing past internal yield milestones and 14A defect-density yields tracking at levels unseen since Intel’s 22nm era. Not entirely sure that latter comparison is a good thing!
- Formal commitment to high-volume manufacturing (HVM) for the 14A process node in 2028, backed by the release of the 0.9 Process Design Kit (PDK) in October 2026.
- The EMIB-T Advanced packaging business is on track to generate multi-billion dollars per customer annually by 2028–2029 at 40% gross margins and 30% operating margins.
Korea Small Cap Gem #69: Mezoo
- Mezoo, which provides wearable medical devices and software, is experiencing exploding sales and profit growth.
- Mejoo generated sales of 9.6 billion won (up 216% YoY) in 1H 2026. Operating margin improved materially from -47.5% in 1H 2025 to 19.1% in 1H 2026.
- Despite surging sales and profits, valuations are dirt cheap. It is trading at P/E of 5.4x based on 2027 consensus earnings estimates.
Haier Smart Home (6690 HK): No Fireworks for Now; Searching for Growth Everywhere
- No Fireworks: In this insight we discuss about Haier Smart Home (6690 HK) ‘s H1 FY2026 financial performance and why there were no fireworks.
- Searching for Growth Everywhere : Given the weak demand in its domestic market, the company is searching for growth in every geography globally.
- Finally, we discuss and conclude our view on H2FY2026 performance of the company.
Toyobo (3101 JP) – Absorbing the Impact of Rising Naphtha Costs
- Toyobo delivered a solid Q1 FY3/27, consistently buoyed by Industrial Films, with particular strength in MLCC mold-release films and SRF.
- Concurrently, OP in the Resins & Chemicals segment (within Environmental & Functional Materials) surged 90.2% YoY.
- While elevated naphtha prices stemming from Middle East tensions have led management to guide for a 17.6% YoY decline in FY OP, robust underlying fundamentals and strategic price pass- throughs should keep operating cash flow resilient.
Cathay Pacific (293 HK): Synthetic Expert Call Transcript (02 Sep 2026)
- Resilient Underlying Profitability Amid Fuel Volatility: Excluding a HK$1 billion one-off gain largely driven by the dilution of its Air China stake, Cathay Group’s underlying H1 2026 net profit of HK$6.24 billion demonstrates robust premium travel and specialized cargo demand. However, a major second-quarter fuel price spike has compressed regional margins, exposing the limits of their 30% fuel hedging strategy.
- The 3RS Capacity Double-Edged Sword: While the Three-Runway System (3RS) expansion raises HKIA’s passenger target to 120 million annually, it threatens to dilute passenger yields over the next 18–36 months if GBA intermodal integration does not scale rapidly enough to absorb the new capacity.
- Optimized Capital Structure and Dividend Resumption: Following the total redemption of the HKSAR government’s HK$19.5 billion preference shares in mid-2024 and the completed HK$6.97 billion Qatar Airways buyback in February 2026, Cathay has shifted focus to shareholder returns. This is evidenced by a HK$0.26 per share interim dividend alongside a HK$7 billion capital reduction designed to restore distributable reserves.
Disclaimer: The following transcripts are synthetic, AI-generated on demand, and compiled exclusively from public data sources; no real-word experts were actually interviewed. This content is designed to highlight potential market mispricings, explore compelling lines of inquiry, and suggest strategic questions rather than present verified facts. All specific financial metrics and data points, including market shares, TAM, margins, and growth rates, are AI-estimated approximations. They may be inaccurate and must be independently verified.
Aspial Lifestyle Limited – Shining Brighter
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Aspial Lifestyle delivered a strong set of 1H2026 results, with revenue rising 26.4% YoY to a record S$464.2 million, while net profit surging 88.7% to S$55.0 million, demonstrating that earnings continued to grow materially faster than the top line.
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The earnings improvement was broad-based across pawnbroking, retail and secured lending, with retail delivering the strongest operating leverage.
- Retail emerges as the biggest earnings driver, while pawnbroking remains resilient.
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