Daily Brief China: MiniMax, Eoptolink Technology , Lotus Horizon, ANTA Sports, Plover Bay Technologies, Junlebao Dairy Group, Ligent Technologies, XtalPi, Zhejiang IPLUSMOBOT Technology and more

• The post-lock-up liquidity overhang on MiniMax was cleared through a coordinated dual-tranche HKD 16 billion fundraise on July 10, 2026, which provided arbitrageurs the necessary stock borrow to delta-hedge the concurrent HKD 6.5 billion convertible bond, followed by a massive short squeeze driven by the Southbound Stock Connect inclusion.
• MiniMax’s revenue mix has aggressively shifted to B-end enterprise and API services, which accounted for 63.4% of H1 2026 revenue. Despite an ARR reaching US$800 million by late August, gross margins remain constrained at 17.9% due to high GPU compute costs.
• CEO Yan Junjie’s total salary sacrifice and the transfer of 5% of his personal equity stake serve as a crucial governance mechanism to align employee KPIs away from unhedged ARR growth and toward architectural efficiency and path-to-profitability.

• Eoptolink Technology (300502 CH) one of the world’s largest optical transceiver manufacturers, aims to raise over >US$3bn in its H-share listing.
• Eoptolink was one of the global leaders in 2025 in optical modules, with its products being in high demand for data centers.
• In this note, we look at its past performance and other deal dynamics that might impact the listing.

• Construction subcontractor Lotus Horizon (6063 HK) is suspended pursuant to the Hong Kong Code on Takeovers and Mergers.
• I expect Lotus will follow in WK Group (2535 HK) and Superland Group Holdings (368 HK)‘s footsteps, whereby the controlling family exits, triggering an unconditional takeunder. 
• Loss-Making Lotus is a total bubble stock, up 457% since Feb , 750%+ in 12 months, and trading at 20x P/B. Are shell companies and reverse takeovers making a comeback?

• We have to admit that brand acquisitions are a sustainable path forward.
• Domestically, the ANTA brand is placing increasing emphasis on online retail.
• Internationally, Anta plans to open 1,000 stores in Southeast Asia.

• Plover Bay compounded because a specialist technology capability, mission-critical customer problem and capital-light model reinforced one another far beyond the original 5G thesis.
• Its less visible advantage was organizational: long-tenured technical leadership, small independent teams and rapid customer feedback enabled adaptation across successive connectivity technologies.
• The next Plover Bay may emerge from any industry where a small, overlooked company combines niche leadership, superior learning speed, attractive economics and a long reinvestment runway.

• Junlebao, a formerly Mengniu-backed Chinese dairy producer, has filed its prospectus with the HKEX. CICC and MS are the joint sponsors.
• We look at the company’s core segments, liquid dairy products and formula.
• We then look at the company’s financial profile, margin pressure, pre-IPO valuation and investor backing.

• Ligent, a Hisense-controlled optical transceiver and optical network terminal maker, has passed the HKEX listing hearing and is seeking a Main Board listing. Citi and CITIC are the joint sponsors.
• We look at the company’s core segments: optical transceivers and optical network terminals.
• We then look at the company’s financial profile, profit rebound, pre-IPO valuation and investor backing.

• Ligent Technologies (LGT HK) is an optical communication and connectivity products provider. It is seeking to raise US$800 million.     
• In 2025, among all specialised optical transceiver manufacturers globally, Ligent ranked 5th in global optical transceiver revenue, with a market share of 4.0%.
• The investment case is bullish as Ligent is a business executing well (share gains, strong growth, improving margins) in an industry benefiting from a structural growth theme.   

• XtalPi (2228 HK) is a pioneer in TechBio and automated scientific research, integrating quantum physics algorithms, artificial intelligence, and high-throughput robotic wet laboratories to accelerate discovery in biopharmaceuticals and advanced materials.
• The company demonstrated a sharp operational inflection in FY2025, with revenue expanding to RMB 870.46M (a >4.5x increase compared to FY2023), gross margins shifting from negative territory to 55.27%, and reported net income reaching RMB 134.21M.
• Trading at a Price-to-Book multiple of 3.1x relative to an industry peer group averaging 4.0x to 6.0x, XtalPi provides institutional investors with a differentiated, high-growth play on industrial-scale laboratory automation and AI-driven scientific discovery.

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• Backlog-Driven Growth Illusion: Zhejiang IPLUSMOBOT’s massive 131.2% revenue growth in 2025 is structurally deceptive. While revenue spiked to 265.5 million RMB, new order growth was nearly flat, growing only 10.2% from 288 million RMB to 318 million RMB. This indicates the business was primarily clearing out a long-standing backlog of unaccepted, historical projects rather than winning new market demand.
• Working Capital & “Circular Trade” Vulnerabilities: The company’s working capital is severely strained by customer concentration and highly unfavorable commercial terms. Its top five customers contribute over 55% of revenue. Most notably, its relationship with Customer F (who is also Supplier F) involves a circular trade where IPLUSMOBOT grants a massive 180-day credit period on sales but is forced to accept a 30-day credit period on procurement, draining cash.
• The 18C Valuation Gap: To successfully list on the HKEX under the Chapter 18C specialist technology rules, IPLUSMOBOT needs to achieve a minimum market capitalization of 4 billion HKD (approximately 3.7 billion RMB). Its last C++ private round in January 2026 valued the company at 2.13 billion RMB, meaning it must secure a 62% valuation markup in a highly skeptical market, all while carrying 3.95 billion RMB in cumulative net losses over the past three and a half years and an ongoing cash-burning operating model.