In today’s briefing:
- Copper in Focus: US Tariff Risks Fuel Stockpiling; VBM IPO Hits Roadblock
- Supply Squeeze Meets Speculative Momentum as Rubber Prices Accelerate
- Energy Weekly (W/E 4/Sep): WTI Surges on Hormuz, Options Calm, Cheniere’s Tollbooth Holds
- Global Base Oils Supply Falls To 16-Month Low In June
- Oracle Reports This Week, UK GDP Numbers. Remember, September Is Always Volatile …
- CX Daily: The School at the Edge of China’s Education Dream
- TAC Index Weekly Air Cargo Bulletin 07 September 2026
Copper in Focus: US Tariff Risks Fuel Stockpiling; VBM IPO Hits Roadblock
- Record US copper imports point to aggressive stockpiling, while Congo’s rising cathode shipments signal growing competition for physical demand outside COMEX channels.
- Copper options retain a clear bullish tilt, with OI PCR at 0.55 and volume PCR at 0.30 signaling strong upside demand, while the easing CVOL points to lower volatility expectations.
- Political pushback puts VBM’s IPO on hold, while Vale plans to double its copper business, keeping its growth strategy firmly focused on expanding production.
Supply Squeeze Meets Speculative Momentum as Rubber Prices Accelerate
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Persistent rainfall across Thailand and reported raw material shortages in Vietnam continue to disrupt tapping and constrain availability, while El Niño raises the risk of further production losses during the critical October–November period.
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Physical fundamentals are firm, but speculative activity is amplifying the rally.
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Buyers are becoming increasingly cautious as they are hesitant to chase the rapid rally widening bid-offer gaps and reducing liquidity despite firm producer expectations.
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Near-term outlook remains bullish but vulnerable to correction
Energy Weekly (W/E 4/Sep): WTI Surges on Hormuz, Options Calm, Cheniere’s Tollbooth Holds
- WTI gained 9.7% last week as Hormuz tensions drove a sharp geopolitical risk premium, while speculative positioning turned more bullish through fresh long additions and short covering.
- Options markets moved from panic to acceptance, with IV and skew dropping as WTI held above USD 90, though put demand remained elevated for downside protection.
- Cheniere’s contracted model continues to deliver strong growth, but the 2027 to 2028 LNG supply wave could pressure the uncontracted margins behind recent earnings beats.
Global Base Oils Supply Falls To 16-Month Low In June
- Europe’s supply held relatively steady at more than 370,000 tonnes, close to where it has stood for most of the past six months.
- Americas supply dipped as plant maintenance in Brazil combined with US output falling to a 14-month low.
- Middle East supply fell to its lowest level in more than seven years, with a slump in Group III shipments outweighing a rise in flows from Saudi Arabia.
Oracle Reports This Week, UK GDP Numbers. Remember, September Is Always Volatile …
- A quiet week ahead overall, though for UK investors there’s a key number to watch at the end of the week: UK GDP data.
- The consensus estimates for UK monthly GDP (July) is for flat growth (0.0% month-on-month), following June’s surprise 0.3% jump (which had itself beaten the 0% consensus, helped by World Cup-related spending and a summer heatwave, effects economists expect to fade quickly).
- On a year-on-year basis, the consensus is around +1.0%, easing slightly from June’s 1.1% YoY pace.
CX Daily: The School at the Edge of China’s Education Dream
- Cover Story: The School at the Edge of China’s Education Dream
- For Feng Hongxia, the journey to secure an elite education for her son was arduous.
- From her home in northern China’s Inner Mongolia region, she traveled more than 10 hours to the tropical southern province of Yunnan, then boarded a train to the border town of Mohan.
TAC Index Weekly Air Cargo Bulletin 07 September 2026
- Global air freight rates edged up again last week according to the latest data from TAC Index, the leading price reporting agency on air freight markets and calculating agent for the Baltic Air Freight indices.
- The global Baltic Air Freight Index (BAI00) gained +0.6% over the seven days to September 7 as the normally quiet late summer period continued
- With rates little changed over the last four weeks but still at elevated levels of +19.0% year-on-year following this year’s disruption through the Middle East and repeated surges in jet fuel prices.
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