In today’s briefing:
- Asian Equities: Foreigners Are Buying Korea and Taiwan Again; India and Thailand Being Sold
- ECB: No-Brainer Hike Is Not The Last
- CTA Trend Picks in Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan
- CX Daily: AI Anxiety in China Fuels a Gold Rush in Job Training
- Indian Economy – August 21, 2026
- Morning Market Notes: Military Strikes Rule for Now, But Waning Demand To Rule Down the Road
Asian Equities: Foreigners Are Buying Korea and Taiwan Again; India and Thailand Being Sold
- Recent spike in oil prices and US yields is not deterring foreigners from buying Asian equities. After buying US$4.8bn of Asian Equities in August, FIIs have bought US$1.8bn in September.
- In August FIIs bought Taiwan (US$11bn) and India (US$3.1bn) and sold Korea (-US$8.5bn). In September they have bought Taiwan (US$2bn) and Korea (US$1bn) and have sold India (-US$1.25bn).
- We believe foreign buying shall bounce back in tech-heavy Korea and Taiwan. FIIs would likely buy India too, but in smaller measure than North Asia. We are cautious about ASEAN.
ECB: No-Brainer Hike Is Not The Last
- The ECB’s unsurprising unanimous 25bp rate hike was dubbed a no-brainer by President Lagarde amid upside news on both activity and pipeline inflation pressures.
- Staff forecasts settle above target through the medium term, with upside risks and news since the forecast’s cut-off, signalling a strong case for another hike in December.
- Stale neutral rate estimates aren’t restraining the ECB like they are at the BoE, so its three hikes can achieve the target while the BoE’s one perpetuates its policy failure.
CTA Trend Picks in Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan
- CTAs are positioned in Asia uptrends, but the stocks that support it are losing momentum.
- We uncovered stocks that sit outside the CTA trade that may be less vulnerable to outflows.
- Tech uptrends remain intact, just lower their weight and make room for less volatile trends in financials.
CX Daily: AI Anxiety in China Fuels a Gold Rush in Job Training
- In Depth: AI Anxiety in China Fuels a Gold Rush in Job Training Inside a cramped classroom in an office tower, more than 40 young people sat glued to a projector screen.
- For nearly the entire session, the instructor cycled through dry summaries of AI history that anyone could easily find with a quick online search.
- But nobody left.
Indian Economy – August 21, 2026
- India’s economic outlook remains positive, with real GDP growth projected at 6.48% in 2026 and 6.53% in 2027.
- Over the medium term, growth is expected to stabilize at around 6.50% by 2028, with a broadly similar trajectory anticipated for GDP per capita.
- Investment and gross national savings are also expected to remain relatively stable, at approximately 34% and 32% of GDP, respectively.
Morning Market Notes: Military Strikes Rule for Now, But Waning Demand To Rule Down the Road
- In the market battle between geopolitical risk and fundamentals, thus far geopolitical risk is obviously winning, with the prompt NYMEX crude oil contract trading well above $100 per barrel.
- However, given the latest weekly EIA data, we must now monitor underlying fundamentals more closely than ever for signs that fundamentals may begin to overtake supply risk.
- At the same time, we keep a close eye on the Houthi-Saudi conflict, since any major strike on Saudi energy assets will elicit a response from Pakistan and Turkey.
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