Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Northern Star Resources, Evolution Mining, Amerigo Resources , Amaero, Lincotrade & Associates, Rubber Future SGX TSR20, Sri Trang Agro-Industry, Thunder Gold Corp, Allegiant Gold and more

• In January this year, Northern Star Resources (NST AU) cut its FY26 guidance. Then again in March 2026, leading to a ~19% single-day share price fall on the second cut.
• The downgrades pivots off persistent processing issues at its super pit, KCGM, including a legacy primary crusher failure taking out ~25% of a quarter’s processing capacity earlier this year.
• The underperformance and operational issues were/are not lost on activist Elliott (holding 6.24%). Northern Star has made concessions, (temporarily?) avoiding a proxy fight. Still work to do, but a start.

• Multiple index families rebalance at the close today, driving huge flows across Australian stocks. Estimates indicate over A$5bn to trade from passive trackers.
• Among index adds, we see large flows in EQ Resources (EQR AU), Codan (CDA AU), Sunrise Energy Metals (SRL AU) and Core Lithium Ltd (CXO AU). 
• Among index deletes, the largest flows are in Evolution Mining (EVN AU), Atlas Arteria (ALX AU), Cochlear (COH AU), Graincorp (GNC AU) and Event Hospitality and Entertainment (EVT AU). 

• The single-asset tolling model at El Teniente provides copper price leverage without exploration, reserve replacement, or growth capex; the contract runs to 2037.
• Debt-Free balance sheet and a rules-based capital return strategy sweep cash above a US$30m floor: US$41.7m returned in H1 2026 versus US$20.4m in FY25.
• 13.4x P/E, 6.4x EV/EBITDA, 8.6% yield; ROCE 75%; net cash US$50 mn, based on a copper price of USD 14,000/ton. 

• Amaero Inc. is a leading U.S.-based producer of high-value refractory and titanium alloy spherical metal powders for additive manufacturing and a pioneer in PM-HIP manufacturing.
• The U.S. addressable market is projected to grow to $1,496.1 million by 2030, supported by a $15.3 million backlog and 680 metric tons capacity.
• As of June 30, 2026, total assets were $88,568, with a net loss of $(13,433) and substantial doubt about going concern.

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• Record FY26 delivery, in line with guidance.
• Lincotrade closed FY26 with revenue up 75.8% YoY to S$129.5 million, led by commercial revenue rising 84.0% to S$121.6 million as a record order book was billed out.
• Net profit attributable to shareholders more than tripled, rising 215.3% to S$8.1 million, as gross profit climbed 87.1% to S$17.3 million and gross margin expanded 0.8 percentage points to 13.3% on a richer commercial mix.

Highlights

• MRF reports a 10% increase in revenue but a 6.52% decline in net profit 

• Apollo records strongest YoY quarterly growth in 14 quarters, at 15.6%

• JK Tyre and CEAT see profitability contract sharply despite continued demand momentum

• Activists Force Governance Overhaul: Elliott Management’s build-up of a 5.35% economic interest via cash-settled swaps has successfully dismantled Northern Star’s historically insular board. The appointments of Mark Cutifani and Peter Rozenauers (effective October 1, 2026) signal a major pivot toward stricter capital discipline and rigorous oversight of the incoming CEO.
• Fragile Executive Bench and Leadership Exodus: While incoming CEO Suresh Vadnagra (commencing October 5, 2026) brings heavy-duty operational pedigree from Glencore and Newcrest, he inherits an empty corporate treasury. The departures of long-serving CFO Ryan Gurner (leaving November 30, 2026), Chief Development Officer Michael Mulroney, and KCGM GM Nick Strong present significant operational integration risks during the critical commissioning of the KCGM mill expansion.
• Elevated Cost Structure Masked by Gold Price: Despite reporting an underlying EBITDA of A$4.27 billion for FY26, Northern Star’s operational execution has been poor, missing its original FY26 production guidance twice to finish at 1.54 million ounces. Rising structural inflation, labor tight-loops in Western Australia, and mill tie-in disruptions have pushed FY27 AISC guidance to a high of A$3,050 – 3,450/oz, placing the company’s asset base in the third quartile of the global cost curve.

• Sri Trang Agro-Industry (STA) is the world’s leading fully integrated natural rubber (NR) producer, controlling approximately 10-12% of global natural rubber supply across upstream plantations, midstream primary processing (TSR, RSS, Concentrated Latex), and downstream finished goods via its subsidiary Sri Trang Gloves (STGT).
• Following cyclical margin compression across FY23-FY25 driven by raw material price volatility and post-pandemic glove destocking, STA has demonstrated a clear operational turnaround in 1H26, with 2Q26 gross margin expanding to 11.97% and quarterly net profit recovering to THB 895.00m, supported by early leadership and premium realizations in European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) compliant rubber.
• Trading at an attractive valuation with a top-tier Smartkarma Value score (5/5) and Dividend score (5/5), STA offers a resilient 4.65% dividend yield backed by robust normalized free cash flow generation (THB 11.85bn in FY25 and THB 9.94bn in 1H26), presenting an attractive risk-reward profile for institutional investors seeking cyclical commodity exposure with ESG-driven pricing upside.

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• GOL reported assays for 7 holes drilled at the Bench Target from its 2026 Drill Program at the Tower Mountain Project.
• Drilling intersected new mineralization ~200m east of the current pit with 0.38 g/t over 121.5m, which remains open in all directions.
• All holes returned above cut-off mineralization in areas currently estimated as waste, presenting potential to enhance the strip ratio.

• A2Gold reported first-phase RC results from the McIntosh Target at Eastside, highlighting a new gold mineralization zone ~370m southwest of the current resource (Hole ES-347: 0.23 g/t Au over 65.5m).
• A second hole extended known McIntosh mineralization ~86m to the southeast (Hole ES-342: 0.20 g/t Au over 32.0m).
• Both intercepts sit on the margins of magnetic-low anomalies, the same signature that hosts the existing resource, supporting the Company’s geophysical targeting model for finding new structures across the district.