In today’s briefing:
- This Week in AI (Sep 13-19): OpenAI Delays IPO Hopes; AI Slowdown Debate Hits Markets
- SEMICONDUCTOR MEMORY CYCLE MONITOR — Issue #12 | 13-19 Sep 2026
- HK Strategy: The Forthcoming Black October?
- Ohayo Japan | Tech Leads
This Week in AI (Sep 13-19): OpenAI Delays IPO Hopes; AI Slowdown Debate Hits Markets
- OpenAI’s private funding and burn disclosures reset IPO timing, while Anthropic added Nasdaq, profitability and revenue markers ahead of listing.
- China labs shipped faster domestic-chip inference, cheaper multimodal pricing, coding-agent tools and Kimi distribution on AWS Bedrock.
- AI infrastructure financing stayed active across data centers, power equipment, custom chips, memory and startup funding.
SEMICONDUCTOR MEMORY CYCLE MONITOR — Issue #12 | 13-19 Sep 2026
- AI-Safety and a 25bp Fed hike drove memory into its sharpest selloff since July; by Friday, SanDisk, Micron and SK Hynix had recovered to weekly gains.
- No hyperscaler cut capex. Three AI sentiment shocks in nine months have cleared within four sessions — suggesting volatility, not a broken memory earnings thesis.
- Both trades remain in profit: SK Hynix +7.3% MTM and Kioxia +0.5%. Kioxia’s 1 Oct split and potential $10bn US ADR add 2027 positioning catalysts.
HK Strategy: The Forthcoming Black October?
- October has been a poor month in the last five years, with an average return of -6.5%. This highlights the risk for the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) next month.
- Factors including higher interest rates, the US mid-term election, elevated crude oil prices, and concerns about the AI investment outlook are negative issues.
- November and December are, interestingly, the good months in the last five years. Aggressive players may buy back after a possible plunge in October.
Ohayo Japan | Tech Leads
- US stock market closed mixed on Friday wrapping up a volatile week that included the Federal Reserve’s first interest rate hike in three years
- Tech strength (especially semiconductors) helped the Nasdaq and S&P 500 finish higher
- Japanese markets closed for national holidays. Resume trading on Thursday
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