In today’s briefing:
- Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) — the 3-For-1 Split Fixes a Real Problem for Retailers
- HDFC Bank: Anatomy of a Mini Exodus
- Micron Technology (MU US) FQ4-26 Results: Beat on Every Line, FQ1 Guide ~8% Above the Street
- Nesco: Leveraging Strengths to Get Into Adjacencies like Wayside Amenities
- Hitachi Construction (6305 JP) Vs Komatsu (6301 JP): Stat Arb Signals 7% Return in Japan Machinery
- Kyoto Financial Group (5844 JP) – Much More Upside Beyond Equity Monetization
- Suzuki Motor (7269 JP): Comparing Technology Focus Across 2024–26
- JD Logistics H1/Q2 Results | Momentum, Profitability Show Mixed Signals | Shares Drained Of Optimism
- NAURA Technology: From China Champion to Global Contender
- Heiwa Real Estate (8803.T): The Ultimate TSE Mean-Reversion & Activist Catalyst Trade
Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) — the 3-For-1 Split Fixes a Real Problem for Retailers
- Kioxia’s 3-for-1 split is effective today; the shares closed 30 September at ¥18,095, up 1.2%. Retail held just 5% at March 2026, down from 6%.
- Kioxia’s 3-for-1 split is effective today; the shares closed 30 September at ¥18,095, up 1.2%. Retail held just 5% at March 2026, down from 6%.
- BULLISH maintained, fair value ¥24,000 post-split on 12x FY2027E EPS of ¥2,000; the split changes who can own the shares, not what they are worth.
HDFC Bank: Anatomy of a Mini Exodus
- HDFC Bank ownership has fallen from 51.4% to 40.6% of active funds since December, with $3.2bn of outflows and holdings halving to $9.3bn.
- The selling spans every mandate: Asia ex-Japan and ACWI ex-USA ownership both fell 17.3 points, with net sellers dominating GEM and Global funds too.
- A cooling on India amid the AI trade likely triggered it, but investors staying in India are switching to ICICI Bank and SBI.
Micron Technology (MU US) FQ4-26 Results: Beat on Every Line, FQ1 Guide ~8% Above the Street
- Micron FQ4-26 revenue of US$54.2bn beat the US$50bn guide by 8.5%; gross margin 87.0%, EPS US$33.42 versus US$31 guided. FQ4 had 14 weeks: per-week revenue growth was ~21%, not 31%.
- FQ1-27 guide of US$61.5bn revenue and US$38.15 EPS is ~8-9% above Street. SCAs rose to 26, RPO to ~US$150bn, coverage >35% of revenue to 2030. 86.25% gross margin guide.
- BULLISH, TP US$1,375 held (11x FY27E EPS US$125): +28.5% upside. The FQ1 guide annualises to US$153, so the anchor is conservative and the bias is up.
Nesco: Leveraging Strengths to Get Into Adjacencies like Wayside Amenities
- With 100% occupancy in Tower 3 and Tower 4, Nesco continues to generate steady revenue of INR 98cr+ and EBIT of INR 80cr+ per quarter.
- Q1 tends to be seasonally weak for exhibitions (BEC), thus QoQ comparison is not relevant. YoY BEC revenue and EBIT grew 10% YoY to INR 44cr+ and INR 22cr+, respectively.
- The Foods business continues to maintain its growth momentum with revenue up 20%+. Work has commenced on 4 sites on Hyderabad-Vishakapatnam expressway for wayside amenities.
Hitachi Construction (6305 JP) Vs Komatsu (6301 JP): Stat Arb Signals 7% Return in Japan Machinery
- Context: The Komatsu Ltd (6301 JP) vs. Hitachi Construction Machinery (6305 JP) price ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
- Highlight: Going long Hitachi Construction Machinery (6305 JP) and short Komatsu Ltd (6301 JP) targets a 7% return.
- Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.
Kyoto Financial Group (5844 JP) – Much More Upside Beyond Equity Monetization
- A long tail of earnings growth – Although investor attention on Kyoto FG centers on its significant equity holdings in Kyoto-based companies and the unwinding of those positions we believe the more important story is the improving operating trend at the underlying bank which we think is underappreciated and offers a long tail of earnings growth that is unique among Japan’s regional banks as its fixed-rate loan book gradually reprices.
- The equity portfolio is an additional kicker, providing shareholder return optionality well above peers as it is monetized, and together we think they warrant a premium valuation for what the Bank offers.
- Conservative targets, strong start – The new MTP targets net income of ¥90bn+ by FY3/29 (~2x FY3/26 excluding the gain on Nintendo shares), alongside ROE of 8%+, OHR in the 40% range, ¥300bn+ of shareholding reduction, and a total payout of 50%+.
Suzuki Motor (7269 JP): Comparing Technology Focus Across 2024–26
- In this insight we discuss about how Suzuki Motor (7269 JP) technology focus has evolved from 2024 to 2026
- We highlight key theme changes in each year and operational developments.
- Finally, we summarize what to look forward in coming years.
JD Logistics H1/Q2 Results | Momentum, Profitability Show Mixed Signals | Shares Drained Of Optimism
- In H1 and Q2 this year, JD Logistics’ top-line growth remained strong, growing by 20%+
- But margins have continued to erode in recent periods, probably due to changes in mix
- Down close to HK$10 per share, we believe lots of negativity is “baked in” to price
NAURA Technology: From China Champion to Global Contender
- NAURA ownership has surged seven-fold since 2023: 18.3% of active funds now hold it, with $2.4bn invested and holders running a committed 1.86% average position.
- The register is built on emerging markets: owned by 63% of China A-Share funds and 22% of GEM funds, with GEM investors leading 2026’s buying.
- Global and ACWI ex-USA funds hold nearly $15bn in NAURA’s listed peers but under $100m in NAURA itself. Breaking into global portfolios is the next leg.
Heiwa Real Estate (8803.T): The Ultimate TSE Mean-Reversion & Activist Catalyst Trade
- Prime Target: Heiwa’s JPY 171bn market cap perfectly fits activist accumulation parameters, unlocking trapped capital to force aggressive balance sheet reallocation and robust ROE expansion.
- TSE Reform Tailwind: Mandated capital efficiency has already driven a massive JPY 1bn buyback and 6.7m share cancellation, propelling ROE to 9.0% and signaling further unwinds.
- De-Risked Entry: A surging JPY 98 per share dividend floor offsets macroeconomic rate hike risks, offering a highly asymmetric risk-reward profile ahead of imminent governance catalysts.
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