This weekly newsletter pulls together summaries of the top ten most-read Insights across Event-Driven and Index Rebalance on Smartkarma.
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1. [Japan Partial Tender] BASE (4477 JP) – Maki-San Bought, Will Buy More – Prepare For Launch
- BASE Inc (4477 JP) released a statement during the lunch break on 5 October 2026.
- It says, in short, that Maki-san, who was wary of SBI/management, had not bought during the Tender Offer Period, but once extended, started to buy.
- He bought Friday and will try to get to 30%. He bought a chunk of that Friday. He’s in today. There’s more to buy.
2. [Japan Partial Tender] BASE (4477 JP) – We Needed Bumpity We Got Bumpitrage So What Now?
- SBI Holdings (8473 JP) extended their tender on BASE Inc (4477 JP) at ¥340 despite the tender having no minimum threshold. They obviously didn’t get what they wanted. Not close.
- That opened them up to expectations of a bump. For me, those expectations were the original base case but the stock didn’t act that way. Partial tender situations are funny.
- The next day, shares traded higher but still below ¥340. On Friday, things got more exciting. A successful tender needs to be higher (but SBI could attempt a backdoor trade).
3. Clarifying the Confusion Around Chey’s SK Holdings Stake Sale Disclosure
- These are all indicative numbers. Both the per share price and the total deal value can be adjusted on the actual execution date
- The November 2 to December 1 window reflects disclosure rules, not a 30 day sell down. Given the block plus PRS structure, base case is November 2.
- November 2 is the settlement date, implying October 29 execution via pre market block trade, with October 28 close as the pricing reference.
4. Taiyo Holdings (4626 JP): Bump Pressure Builds, but KKR Holds the Cards
- Since KKR’s JPY4,750 preconditional offer was announced, Taiyo Holdings (4626 JP) shares have traded above terms on 75% of days, with the offer due to open in late October.
- Pressure for a bump: Results beat guidance, peers have rerated, the offer lacks a control premium compared to peer multiples, IFA valuations look stale and competing-offer clauses.
- However, KKR can likely close without a bump: minimum acceptance is within reach and could be lowered, no activist has emerged, an interloper looks unlikely, and the price is defensible.
5. Jardine Matheson Southeast Asia (JCNC SP) Pops On Toyota In-Specie & Special Div
- Jardine Matheson Southeast Asia (JCNC SP) (formerly known as Jardine Cycle & Carriage (JCNC SP), popped ~10% today ahead of the Toyota Motor (7203 JP) in-specie-distribution and special dividend.
- The record date for both is the 9th October, with payment on (or before) 2nd December.
- JMSEA’s implied stub value is around its highest-ever level. As is the simple ratio of JMSEA/Astra International (ASII IJ). Neither are sustainable. Borrow is (reportedly) non-existent.
6. Merger Arb Mondays (05 Oct) – Kadoya, Kakaku, Leopalace21, Taiyo, Ingenia, Peet, OFX, Cleanaway
- I summarise the latest spreads and newsflow for the merger arb situations covered across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Chinese ADRs.
- Highest spreads: Skyworth (751 HK), OFX Group (OFX AU), Z Fin (1168 HK), Peet Ltd (PPC AU), Atlantic Lithium (A11 AU), Tourism Holdings (THL NZ).
- Lowest spreads: Kadoya Sesame Mills (2612 JP), Kakaku.com Inc (2371 JP), Accent Group (AX1 AU), Leopalace21 Corp (8848 JP), Taiyo Holdings (4626 JP), FleetPartners Group (FPR AU).
7. Mynt (GCASH PM): No Quick Index Inclusion to Absorb Float
- GCash (Mynt) (GCASH PM) is looking to raise up to US$972m by selling shares at ₱6.6/share, valuing the company at ₱442bn (US$7bn).
- The offer period runs from 6-12 October and the stock is expected to start trading on 20 October. Demand is said to be multiples of the offer size.
- The earliest global index inclusion will come in June 2027, followed by a possible Philippines Stock Exchange PSEi Index (PCOMP INDEX) inclusion in July.
8. PHC Holdings (6523 JP): Corporate Selling Tilts the Risk/Reward to the Downside
- Toho Holdings (8129 JP)‘s rumoured JPY200bn proposal for PHC Holdings (6523 JP) implies about JPY1,571. Mitsubishi Chemical and Mitsui sold 3.4m shares on-market near that level, signalling little faith.
- Their selling weakens the deal’s risk/reward: it signals lower deal certainty, and there would be a large overhang of about 20% of the shares if Toho walks away.
- My fair value range remains JPY1,800–2,030, but at the last close, JPY1,595, the risk/reward is skewed to the downside.
9. BASE (4477 JP): Maki’s Return Leaves SBI to Bump Big or Bargain
- BASE Inc (4477 JP) disclosed a “difference of views” with Maki-san, who says management ignored the cost of his trading restrictions; he would resume buying from 2 October, targeting over 30%.
- With Maki buying at JPY370+, shares trading above terms and the 25% listing floor limiting supply, SBI faces a shortfall at JPY340, and a bump looks inevitable.
- SBI likely needs about JPY420 to beat a potential Maki tender, but negotiating with Maki or accepting a small fill (SBI has no minimum) may make more sense.
10. Ingenia (INA AU) Engages With Warburg. That’s The Right Outcome
- Third time’s a charm as Ingenia Communities (INA AU) extends due diligence to Warburg Pincus on a non-exclusive basis.
- The DD access arrives after Warburg initially pitched a A$4.75/share NBIO on the 7th September (rejected); then A$5.05/share on the 21st September (also rejected), then A$5.25/share on the 28th September.
- As with the two previous bids, Warburg’s last proposal is conditional on Ingenia terminating the Peet Ltd (PPC AU) Scheme: Peet Ltd (PPC AU): Ingenia Communities (INA AU)’s Clean Scheme.
