In today’s briefing:
- Regarding Next Monday’s SOL AI Semis TOP 2 Plus Rebalance
- October 7 MTD Reply: A Paradoxical Setup for Hynix
- Cleanaway (CWY AU): EQT Deal on Track, but the Vote Won’t Be a Formality
- BASE (4477 JP): Maki-San Forces SBI’s Hand, but the Upside Is Largely Priced In
- Jio Platforms IPO: Index Entry Timeline & Flow for India’s (Possibly) Largest IPO
- Quiddity Leaderboard PSEi Feb27 Rebal: First Review Under New Methodology; 3 ADDs/DELs Likely
- [Japan Partial Tender] Maki-San Threatens BASE (4477 JP) Tender – Financial Engineering Risk Rises
- HSCI / HK Connect Dec 2026 Index Rebalance Forecast
- HSCI Index Rebalance Preview: Southbound Stock Connect Additions; Momenta Needs a Moment
- Aequitas: AP Memory Technology GDR Offering – Well Flagged US$422m GDR
Regarding Next Monday’s SOL AI Semis TOP 2 Plus Rebalance
- Jusung and Hanmi Semiconductor remain mcap Top 4, but weak momentum Z scores keep both low probability inclusion candidates for Monday’s 0167A0 rebalance.
- Samsung and Hynix stay Top 2; Samsung E-M, Square, Isu and Daeduck hold Top 4. TES stays, with Simmtech, Fadu and Hana Micron likely replacing PSK, VM and Wonik IPS.
- Simmtech is the strongest inclusion candidate, with ~KRW 200bn passive inflow, over 4% of float and ~1x recent DTV, making it a key name to watch Monday.
October 7 MTD Reply: A Paradoxical Setup for Hynix
- The MTD Reply may help Hynix secure dismissal, but its arguments on quarterly pricing upside and HBM’s outsized margins could reinforce peak out concerns and increase antitrust risk.
- Chey appears to be pushing back against HBM peak out concerns by accelerating capex and reinforcing management’s confidence in sustained HBM and AI demand.
- Hynix may accelerate ADR expansion ahead of the Solidigm IPO, using deeper US market ties as a shield against regulatory risk.
Cleanaway (CWY AU): EQT Deal on Track, but the Vote Won’t Be a Formality
- EQT has reconfirmed its A$3.13 offer (A$3.095 net of dividend) for Cleanaway Waste Management (CWY AU) three times. Financing is well covered, and a SID looks likely.
- Shares fell 3.6% to A$2.66 today, likely reflecting sell-the-news profit-taking, a third exclusivity extension, growing institutional opposition and the 22 October AGM overhang.
- The scheme vote should pass, as confirmed dissent (10.3%) is insufficient to block it, but industry funds (14%) joining and the AGM spill risk make it contested, not a formality.
BASE (4477 JP): Maki-San Forces SBI’s Hand, but the Upside Is Largely Priced In
- Maki-San likely holds around 28% of BASE Inc (4477 JP), targets over 30% via tender and no longer backs SBI. With shares 17% above terms, SBI cannot succeed at JPY340.
- SBI likely needs JPY420–440 to beat a potential Maki tender. A token bump won’t work, so a small fill or walk-away may make more economic sense.
- At the last close (JPY399), the risk/reward is unattractive. Based on a scenario analysis of the estimated prorated value, the upside is about 6% against a 12–20% downside.
Jio Platforms IPO: Index Entry Timeline & Flow for India’s (Possibly) Largest IPO
- Jio Platforms is looking to list later this month by selling 270m shares at up to INR 1119/share, raising INR 302bn (US$3.1bn) and valuing the company at INR 10,305bn (US$106.5bn).
- The small float (2.93% of shares out) will result in the stock missing Fast Entry to global indices. The pre-IPO lock-up expiry in April could result in global index inclusion.
- Jio Platforms Ltd (1797135D IN) will be added to some local indices in March, though inclusion in the headline indices will need to wait till at least June.
Quiddity Leaderboard PSEi Feb27 Rebal: First Review Under New Methodology; 3 ADDs/DELs Likely
- The PSEi is the main benchmark of the Philippine Stock Exchange comprising a fixed basket of 30 companies selected on the basis of market capitalization and liquidity thresholds.
- In this insight, we look at the potential ADDs/DELs for the PSEi index for the February 2027 index rebal event.
- We expect 3 changes based on latest data. However, the reference period is not complete yet and our expectations can change.
[Japan Partial Tender] Maki-San Threatens BASE (4477 JP) Tender – Financial Engineering Risk Rises
- On Friday 9 October, largest BASE Inc (4477 JP) shareholder MAKI Hiroyuki who is also President and CEO Melco Holdings (6676 JP) (a.k.a. Buffalo Inc), announced his new larger stake.
- Or part of it. He got to 23.32% by 2 October. I expect it’s 26-27% as of now, but could be slightly higher. He also released a change in purpose.
- That change suggests substantial disagreement with and distrust of management. It threatens a Tender Offer to get over 30% (which he says he intends). Interesting times lie ahead.
HSCI / HK Connect Dec 2026 Index Rebalance Forecast
- We screen third-quarter listings ahead of the HSCI fast-entry result, due on 20 Nov 2026 after market close.
- Unlike September, the December cycle adds only third-quarter listings, by market value coverage within the HSCI.
- Three stocks are screened as high-conviction ADD candidates this cycle.
HSCI Index Rebalance Preview: Southbound Stock Connect Additions; Momenta Needs a Moment
- There were 31 new listings on the Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (388 HK) in Q3, of which 14 were A/H listings.
- We forecast 5 additions to the HSCI in December and 2 of those additions will then be added to Southbound Stock Connect. SHEIN was already added to the index earlier.
- As a stock with Weighted Voting Rights (WVR), Momenta Global (6880 HK) will need to wait till early February to be added to Southbound Stock Connect.
Aequitas: AP Memory Technology GDR Offering – Well Flagged US$422m GDR
- AP Memory Technology (6531 TT) is raising around US$422m, selling 14.8m shares via a GDR offering. Proceeds will be used to procure raw materials overseas and fund working capital.
- Similar to previous GDR listings, the firm has undergone a long drawn out process prior to launching the deal, having to jump through a number of board/shareholder/regulatory approval loops.
- In this note, we run the deal through our ECM framework and comment on deal dynamics.
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