Australia

• Back on the 21st Feb 2025, Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), a leader in dermatology and women’s health, entered into a Scheme with US-based pharmaceutical outfit, Cosette Pharmaceuticals, at A$7.40/share. 
• The transaction is progressing – the HSR Act condition was satisfied last week. A Scheme Booklet should be issued shortly, with an expected vote mid-June and late-June/early-July implementation. 
• Shares declined 3.1% yesterday over concerns a MAC could be triggered on the back of the Trump’s executive order on pharma. The impact is likely mixed, but leans neutral.

• On Monday, President Trump signed an executive order requiring drugmakers to start offering US patients the lowest price for a drug in a peer country (the Most Favoured Nation price).
• Mayne Pharma (MYX AU) is exposed as US accounts for 84% of revenue. I estimate that the average price reduction should be <16% so that the MAC is not triggered.  
• However, the MAC is not triggered if it arises “from any change in any law, regulation or rule of a Government Agency”, which should capture the Trump order.

• Webjet Group (WJL AU) disclosed a non-binding offer from BGH to acquire a controlling interest at A$0.80 per share, a 10.1% discount to the last close.
• BGH was also disclosed as the mystery buyer of the 5% stake on 8 May. BGH currently represents 10.76% of outstanding shares. 
• The offer will likely be structured as a takeover offer with a 50.1% minimum acceptance condition. It is unattractive, and the Board should negotiate better terms. 

• ReadCloud Limited (ASX:RCL) services the education and training sectors through the provision of digital learning content, proprietary interactive technology, and support for students and educators.
• The company released a trading update and its 4C quarterly activities report for the March quarter (Q2 FY25 – September year-end).
• The update contained numerous positive developments indicating continued momentum in FY25 and de-risks the financial performance for the balance of the year.

• In Betr’s “Superior Offer” For PointsBet (PBH AU) Is Questionable, I surmised, on balance, PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU) would afford Betr Entertainment (BBT AU) due diligence. That is now confirmed.
• PointsBet initial focus will be on Betr’s scrip as it comprises 43% of the funding mix.
• Separately, Mixi Inc (2121 JP)‘s Scheme Booklet was dispatched on the 8th May, with a shareholder vote on the 12th June. Mixi has matching rights under its SID.

• Jan-Mar 2025 shipments for Australian miners RIO AU, BHP AU, and FMG AU  were sluggish, registering -9.3%,-4.3%, and 0.4% YoY, respectively, due to inclement weather.
• Vale (VALE US) shipments were comparatively better, up 3.6% YoY to 66.1 mn tons. The big four kept their annual production guidance intact. 
• Positive news came from Vales China clients, as blast furnace utilization passed 90%, and some mills are now making cash profits of 200 RMB/ton. 

As promised, on 5 May, Barton announced the results of its optimised scoping study on its Tunkillia project in South Australia. Relative to its initial scoping study (July 2024), capex was down 8.0%, while unit oxide and sulphide processing costs were 24.4% and 18.0% lower, respectively, as more realistic ore hardnesses were considered for grinding purposes. The life of the operation has been extended from 7.7 to 10 years, with the result that the amount of payable gold produced has increased by 13.1%. In conjunction with a 42.9% increase in the gold price to A$5,000/oz (c US$3,333/oz), these changes (among others) resulted in an increase in pre-tax project NPV7.5 of 176.6% to A$1,416m and an 33.2 percentage point increase in the internal rate of return to 73.2% (A$781m and 48.3% at A$4,000/oz Au, respectively). Using the same inputs, our financial model generates an NPV7.5 within 6% of Barton’s, from which we estimate a post-tax project NPV7.5 of A$895.9m, or A$4.09/share.

• The shareholder vote failed, but momentum builds: Despite only 19.35% support, institutional backing signals growing pressure on Rio Tinto’s board to revisit the dual-listed company structure in future.
• Valuation gap widens, thesis strengthens: With RIO Ltd trading at a 23.2% premium over RIO plc, the economic case for unification — and the relative value trade — becomes increasingly compelling.
• Not statistical arbitrage, but event-driven optionality: The long plc / short Ltd setup lacks persistent mean reversion but offers asymmetric upside if governance shifts, tax changes, or structural catalysts force convergence.

• On the 1st April, Avjennings Ltd (AVJ AU), a widely recognised home builder in Australia/New Zealand, entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed with AVID at A$0.655/share. 
• A special dividend – included in the Scheme consideration – could add A$0.072/share in franking credits (to those shareholders who can take advantage), or ~11% of the consideration. That’s chunky.
• The Scheme Booklet is now out, with a Scheme Meeting on the 11th July, and expected payment on or before the 14th August. The IE (Kroll) says “fair & reasonable“.

• Iron ore prices remain around $97/ton, down 0.5% WoW, staying within a long-term range of $95-$130/ton over the past four years, indicating sustained price stability at the lower end.
• With weather conditions improving in Australia, we expect iron ore shipments to start increasing and China to import more than 100 million tons/month.  
• We like Fenix Resources (FEX AU). The company recently presented at the RIU Resources Round-up Conference in Sydney on 7 May 2025. 

• On the 30th September 2024, B2C-player Webjet Group (WJL AU) demerged from (now) B2B-player WEB Travel Group (WEB AU). This was discussed in Thoughts On Webjet (WEB AU)’s Demerger. 
• Webjet is up 34% this week, on decent volume. The word on the street is that an undisclosed buyer with ~5% was seeking to add an additional 5% (19.6mn shares). 
• Webjet announced after market yesterday it had became aware of such a buyer. That’s all the information at hand.

• The Avjennings Ltd (AVJ AU) IE considers AVID’s A$0.655 offer fair and reasonable as it is above its A$0.54-0.61 valuation range.
• The offer is conditional on shareholder and regulatory approvals (FIRB and OIO). The vote is low-risk, as SC Global (54.02% of outstanding shares) will vote in favour. 
• The attractive offer represents a 98.5% premium to the undisturbed price. At the last close and for a 14 August payment, the gross/annualised spread is 0.8%/2.8%.  

• Domain Holdings Australia (DHG AU) entered a scheme implementation deed with Costar Group (CSGP US) at A$4.43 per share, a 42.0% premium to the undisturbed price.
• As CoStar is a US entity, FIRB approval should be forthcoming. The scheme vote is low-risk, as Nine (60.05% of outstanding shares) will vote in favour of it. 
• While attractive to precedent transaction multiples, the offer remains light compared to peer multiples. At the last close and for an end-of-August payment, the gross/annualised spread is 1.1%/3.6%. 

• On the 27th March 2025, Domain Holdings Australia (DHG AU)  announced a $4.43/share NBIO from Costar, and subsequently entered into an exclusivity and process deed.
• Domain has now entered into a Scheme with CoStar on the same terms. Including any dividends paid. Curiously, terms were not declared “best & final” as stated in the NBIO.
• Apart from the standard Scheme vote – expected mid-August, this needs FIRB to sign off. Potential implementation late-August. Nine Entertainment Co Holdings (NEC AU) (60.1% shareholder) is supportive.

• Fluence Corporation (ASX:FLC) specialises in the delivery of water and wastewater solutions in industrial, municipal and commercial industries across the globe.
• The company has released its quarterly 4C cash-flow statement and a Q1FY25 financial and operating update (December year-end).
• The Q1 result showed a continuation of momentum from Q4FY24 and sets the company up for the remainder of the year.

• Chinese officials unveiled a broad set of economic support actions, including rate reductions and substantial liquidity infusions, as part of intensified efforts to cushion the economy from U.S. trade tensions. 
• Top U.S. and Chinese officials will meet in Switzerland from May 9–12 to ease trade tensions, boosting investor sentiment and driving iron ore futures to a near two-week high. 
• China’s factory output contracted in April, with both the official NBS and Caixin PMI reports showing a decline in manufacturing activity amid weakening foreign demand.

• RaaS interviews EEG CEO Alex Underwood to discuss the federal election outcome and expected impact on the gas sector and EEG, an update on the Beetaloo drilling programme and discussion on the timeline to first production.

• Back on the 24th March, Gold Road (GOR AU) rejected an unsolicited offer from Gold Fields (GFI SJ) of $2.27/share cash plus GOR’s effective interest in De Grey Mining (DEG AU).
• GFI has now bumped the cash terms to $2.52/share or an all-in price of ~A$3.40/share, a 43% premium to undisturbed. This includes a A$0.35/share fully franked dividend (if paid).
• Conditions include the standard Scheme vote plus FIRB. 7.5% of shares out are supportive. Implementation is expected in October 2025.

• Gold Road Resources (GOR AU) has entered a scheme with Gold Fields Ltd (GFI SJ). The consideration is A$2.52 cash + value per share of Northern Star Resources (NST AU) stake.
• The proposal is a logical consolidation to eliminate dissynergies between the JV partners. The offer is attractive compared to peer multiples, precedent transactions and historical trading ranges. 
• The vote is low-risk, with irrevocables representing 7.51% of the outstanding shares. At the last close and for an early October payment, the gross/annualised spread was 4.1%/10.0%.

• On the 17th March, eftpos terminal provider Smartpay (SPY NZ/SMP AU) announced the receipt of two NBIOs
• One from Tyro (TYR AU) (@ NZ$1.00/share) and one from a third party (believed to be Shift4 (FOUR US)). Both parties were granted a limited period of commercial due diligence. 
• After Shift4 (if indeed them) bumped terms to NZ$1.20/share/A$1.12/share, it was granted exclusivity on the 2nd May. Tyro has now walked. 

• Deep Yellow Limited(DYLLF) Company Sponsored Research Report

• Airtasker Limited (ASX:ART) is an online marketplace for local services, connecting people and businesses who need work done with people who want to work.
• ART has reported its Q3 FY25 trading update with key RaaS KPIs all heading in the right direction.
• Another quarter of positive cash flow was achieved, resulting in a stable net cash position of $18.3m.

• Amaero Ltd (ASX:3DA) is a global specialist in advanced materials manufacturing for the defence, aerospace and other industrial sectors, developing a critical metals alloy powder manufacturing facility in Tennessee, USA.
• The company has announced it has signed a five-year, exclusive supply agreement with US-based metal additive manufacturing technology company Velo3D (OTC:VLDX) for mission-critical parts in the defence, space and aviation industries (ASX release 29 April).
• Amaero said, based on demand estimates from Velo3D, revenue from C103 and titanium alloy powder sales over the five-year agreement are expected to equal approximately US$22m (A$35m).

• Over the past three weeks, the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) has staged one of the strongest rebounds since the early April Trump-tariff shock, rallying approximately +15% from its 16-month low.
• Several factors are driving the rally: recent passive flow activity, as highlighted by Brian Freitas but also broad-based sector strength, with notable gains in energy, healthcare, and consumer staples.
• Despite a positive outlook, our models indicate the index is currently OVERBOUGHT. This insight breaks down the key details.

• SGX Iron Ore Futures fell 4.3% WoW to $95.85/ton, closing just above S2 support as bearish momentum strengthened
• Prices are trading below all key moving averages, with a recent death cross and RSI at 38.17, indicating continued downside risk
• Managed Money and Physicals turned net short, while total futures and options open interest rose 4.2% WoW, reflecting rising bearish positioning

Canyon Resources has received an approval that grants it land access at the established port of Douala. With rail access already secured through the investment in Camrail, this is the final infrastructure agreement required for the development of the Minim Martap project. It also paves the way for the company’s majority shareholder, Eagle Eye Asset Holdings (EEA), to exercise its 500m options that will bring in A$35m. Access to rail and port significantly de-risks the project, supporting Canyon’s target of first shipment in H126. We maintain our project level NPV at US$566m (A$889m).

• Pureprofile Ltd (ASX:PPL) is a data analytics and consumer insights company underpinned by proprietary technology, servicing business decision makers in brands and media companies as well as market researchers.
• On April 30, Pureprofile reported a 16% increase in Q3 FY25 revenue to $12.7m and a 16% increase in Q3 EBITDA to $0.6m versus the previous corresponding period (pcp).
• Australia/New Zealand (ANZ) revenue grew 10% on the pcp to $6.6m while Rest of World (RoW) jumped 24% to $6.1m, or 48% of total revenue.

• • 1Q25 net production was 246 boe/d.
• This is in line with our expectations.
• ADX held A$6.7 mm in cash at the end of March.