Australia

• In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the June 2025 index rebal event.
• We expect one change for ASX 50, one change for ASX 100, and two changes for ASX 200. 
• The official index changes will be announced after the close on Friday 6th June 2025.

• Domain Holdings Australia (DHG AU) announced a final non-binding proposal from Costar Group (CSGP US) at A$4.43, a 5.5% premium to the previous A$4.20 offer.
• The scheme vote is low-risk as Nine Entertainment Co Holdings (NEC AU) seems supportive. Nine suggested that the revised price would result in after-tax cash proceeds of A$1.4 billion.
• While attractive to precedent transaction multiples, the revised offer remains light compared to peer multiples. Nevertheless, expect a binding proposal to be forthcoming. 

• Verbrec Limited (ASX:VBC) provides engineering, asset management, infrastructure services and training to the energy, mining, infrastructure and defence industries in Australia, New Zealand, PNG and the Pacific Islands.
• The company has announced that its wholly-owned subsidiary StacksOn Operations Pty Ltd has entered into a Software Reseller Agreement with Datamine for Verbrec’s stockpile digital twin product StacksOn.
• The product was developed in-house by Verbrec and commercialised in 2021 and is currently utilised by BHP at its iron ore mines and ports in Western Australia.

• Gold Road Resources (GOR AU) has rejected a non-binding proposal from Gold Fields (GFI US). The offer is A$2.27 plus value per share of Gold Road’s shareholding in De Grey.
• The Board has rejected the offer mainly due to opportunistic timing and no value attributed to the potential underground expansion of the Gruyere mine (Gold Road/Gold Fields are JV partners).
• The proposal is a logical consolidation to eliminate dis-synergies. The offer is reasonable compared to peer multiples, precedent transactions and historical trading ranges. 

• Gold Road Resources (GOR AU) has rejected an unsolicited offer from Gold Fields Ltd (GFI SJ), 
• In a bid to secure control over the Gruyere JV mine in WA, Gold Roads offered A$2.27/share, “plus … Gold Road’s interest in .. De Grey Mining (DEG AU).“
• To spice things up Gold Road countered with a proposal to acquire Gold Fields’ interest in Gruyere, which was also rejected by Gold Fields.

• Mixed data from China shows property prices down 5-7% YoY and lower land sales YTD, while weaker U.S. consumer sentiment has also negatively impacted overall commodity prices.
• China’s total social financing (TSF) for Jan-Feb reached 9.29 trillion RMB (Vs. consensus 9.75 trillion RMB). However, this figure is +16.6% YoY, signaling that substantial stimulus measures are in effect.
• We expect iron ore prices to remain rangebound between 95-120 USD/ton over the next few months as cost support is strong at the 100 USD/ton level. 

• Back on the 28th January, Dropsuite Ltd (DSE AU), a backup, recovery and protection software company, entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed with Texas-based IT automation outfit NinjaOne.
• NinjaOne’s A$5.90/share Offer was a 34.1% premium to last close. The Offer has the backing of Dropsuite’s largest shareholder, Topline Capital (31%). Board & management hold a further 9%. 
• Done & dusted no? Then Topline sold down to 19.7% on the 28th Jan, then 10.5% on the 28th Feb. The Takeover Panel now orders Topline to stop selling. 

• Unification could unlock $27-32B in value, driven by cost synergies, franking credit release, and index upweighting, enhancing Rio Tinto’s market positioning and shareholder returns.
• $2.88B in franking credits are lost annually due to the DLC structure; unification enables full utilization via higher franked dividends and strategic off-market buybacks.
• Increased ASX200 and FTSE100 weighting post-unification could drive $5-7B in passive fund inflows, improving liquidity, stock valuation, and institutional investor appeal.

• Bain and GIC looking to raise US$130m by selling their remaining stake in Judo Capital (JDO AU).
• The deal will be a large one to digest at 30.8 days of the stock’s three month ADV, representing 9.2% of its shares outstanding.
• In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

• After being outbid for Karora Resources (KRR CN) and rebuffed by Westgold Resources (WGX AU), Ramelius Resources (RMS AU)has inked a merger with Spartan Resources (SPR AU).
• The cash scrip merger – with Ramelius shareholders holding 60.5% of MergeCo – combines operations around the Mount Magnet and Dalgaranga region in Western Australia.
• Spartan shareholder will receive A$0.25/share in cash and 0.6957 new Ramelius, or an implied price of A$1.78/share at the time of the merger, and a 27.5% premium to 30-day VWAP. 

• On 17 March, Spartan Resources (SPR AU) entered a binding scheme with Ramelius Resources (RMS AU). Spartan shareholders will receive A$0.25 cash + 0.6957 RMS shares per SPR share. 
• The scheme vote is low risk as Ramelius has secured irrevocable commitments from Tembo Capital, 1832 Asset Management, and Fourth Sail Capital (18.89% of outstanding shares). 
• The offer is attractive compared to peer multiples, precedent transactions and historical trading ranges. The scheme meeting is targeted for mid-July. 

• Ramelius and Spartan announce a transformational combination deal
• Deal includes 25 cents cash kicker and 0.6957 Ramelius shares for Spartan shareholders
• Top three Spartan shareholders, excluding Ramelius, support deal with combined 19% ownership stake

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• Following the February 2025 reporting season, we look at key changes to consensus estimates, share price movements and outlook commentary relevant to Ricegrowers Limited, trading as SunRice (ASX:SGLLV).
• Across our selected peer group there have been four consensus EPS upgrades (SHV, LGL, EBRO and BGA) and four downgrades (GNC, TWE, RIC and ELD) since December 2024.
• The average peer share price has declined 6% over the past three months against a similar decline in the ASX200 and 2% decline for SGLLV.

• There are 7 adds for the VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ US) in March. There are plenty of float and capping changes too.
• Estimated one-way turnover is 5.3% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$610m. There are 11 stocks with over 1x ADV to trade from passive trackers.
• Spartan Resources /Australi (SPR AU) and Ora Banda Mining (OBM AU) will be added to some of the S&P/ASX indices at the same time, increasing flow and impact.

• Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU) and Technology One (TNE AU) will be added to the VanEck Vectors Australian Equal Weight ETF (MVW AU) at the close on 21 March.
• Surprisingly, there are no deletions from the index. The two inclusions, float changes and capping changes result in a one-way turnover of 5.6% leading to a round-trip trade of A$288m.
• There will be huge buying of A$1.2bn in Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU) at the same time from S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) and related index trackers.

• Ramelius Resources (RMS AU) and Spartan Resources /Australi (SPR AU) have signed a binding Transaction Implementation Deed to enter into a ‘Transformational Combination’.
• For each share of Spartan Resources (SPR AU) held, shareholders will receive A$0.25 in cash and 0.6957 Ramelius Resources (RMS AU) shares, implying a value of A$1.78/share for Spartan Resources.
• The merger is expected to complete late July/ early August, and the merged entity could be added to the S&P/ASX 100 Index in September.

• The AFR reports that Ramelius Resources (RMS AU) and Spartan Resources /Australi (SPR AU) are in advanced talks about a low-premium merger through a scheme of arrangement. 
• A merger will result in synergies due to more significant gold production and lower costs. By adding ore to Mount Magnet, Spartan could fix Ramelius’ near-term production gap. 
• My analysis suggests an exchange ratio of around 0.82x (0.82x RMS share per SPR share). This implies an SPR price of A$1.80, a 12.8% premium to the last close.

• A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
• ECM developments: JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) to list on 19 March.
• Event-Driven developments: Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU), De Grey Mining (DEG AU), HKBN Ltd (1310 HK), ESR Group (1821 HK), Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP), Tenma Corp (7958 JP).

• On the 27th Feb 2025, online trading player SelfWealth Ltd (SWF AU entered into Scheme with Singaporean-based wealth manager Svava.
• Svava tabled a A$0.28/share Offer, in cash, by way of a Scheme, trumping Bell Financial (BFG AU)‘s A$0.25/share earlier bid. Svava also has a 18.83% stake.
• The Scheme Booklet is now out, with a Scheme Meeting on the 22nd April. Expected implementation on the 7th May. The IE (Grant Thorton) says fair & reasonable.

• Standard Lithium (SLI US) will be deleted from the VanEck Rare Earth/Strategic Me (REMX US) at the close of trading on 21 March.
• The constituent change, float changes and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 8.9% and in a round-trip trade of US$61m.
• The largest inflows will be in Pilbara Minerals (PLS AU) and Albemarle (ALB US) while there will be outflows from MP Materials (MP US) and Lynas Corp (LYC AU).

• An independent appraisal repot supports Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU) unifying its dual-listed structure. Shareholders will get their say on the 3rd April. 
• Proto Corp (4298 JP)‘s MBO is the wrong price. The solution here is a really bump or a broken deal if investors keep the share price above the TOB price.
• CK Hutchison Holdings (1 HK)gives back some of the recent gains as pro-Beijing media said CK Hutch “should think twice about which side it wants to stand with”.

• Boss Energy has acquired a stake in Laramide, filling a gap in their listed investments
• Laramide’s flagship asset is the Westmoreland Uranium project in Queensland, with potential in New Mexico as well
• Boss Energy’s acquisitions suggest a shift in narrative towards exploring potential projects beyond just production

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• Waypoint REIT (WPR AU) will be deleted from the Vaneck Vectors Australian Property ETF (MVA AU) next week. There are float changes and capping changes too.
• Estimated one-way turnover is 4.3% and will result in a round-trip trade of A$49m. There are 3 stocks with over 0.5x ADV to trade from passive trackers.
• We had Waypoint REIT (WPR AU) as a delete in December, but the stock was not deleted from the index. We had it as a close delete this time.