Australia

• In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 300, 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the December 2025 index rebal event.
• We expect two changes for ASX 50, two changes for ASX 100, and five changes for ASX 200.
• The official index changes will be announced after the close on Friday 5th December 2025.

• In Friendshoring Aussie Rare Earths, I expected some critical mineral deals would be struck when Aussie PM Albanese and Trump met. And that is what unfolded.
• The US and Australia will each “provide at least US$1bn in investments towards an US$$8.5bn pipeline of critical minerals projects in Australia and the U.S. over the next six months“
• Separately, Albanese announced two priority projects in Australia, including Arafura Resources (ARU AU). 

• Back on the 18th August, Apiam Animal Health (AHX AU), Australia’s largest rural and regional veterinary group, announced a A$0.88/share non-binding indicative Offer from PE outfit Adamantem Capital.
• That was a 64.5% premium to last close. If terms were firmed, shareholders would also be afforded a partial scrip option.
• Apiam and Adamantem have now firmed terms at A$0.87/share, including a permitted fully franked dividend up to A$0.10/share. Mix & match options available, including 100% scrip.

• Back on the 20th August, Lynch Group (LGL AU), an integrated wholesale floral play, entered into a Scheme with Hasfarm Holdings and Darwin Aus Bidco – both are TPG entities.
• TPG offered A$2.245/share, a 28.3% premium to last close, including a A$0.09/share fully franked dividend. 38.5% of shareholders were supportive. TPG held a call option for 19.9% of shares out.
• The Scheme Booklet is now out, with a Scheme Meeting on the 21st November, and expected implementation on the 9th December. The IE (KPMG) says “fair & reasonable”. Clean deal.

• The Lynch Group Holdings (LGL AU) IE considers TPG Inc (TPG US)’s A$2.155 offer fair and reasonable as it is within its A$1.93 to A$2.27 valuation range.
• The offer is conditional on shareholder approval. The vote remains low-risk as the majority of substantial shareholders are supportive.   
• The offer is attractive compared to historical trading ranges. At the last close and for a 9 December payment, the gross/annualised spread is 0.7%/5.1%.

• Bel Fuse’s Class A and B shares have a price gap, with BELFB trading 18% above BELFA, suggesting potential arbitrage.
• Mayne Pharma’s court ruling favors MYX in the A$7.40/share takeover by Cosette, pending FIRB approval by October 31.
• STAAR Surgical’s Q3 sales rose 7% YoY, driven by China demand recovery, amid proxy advisory opposition to Alcon’s offer.

• Provaris Energy Ltd (ASX.PV1) represents an unique investment opportunity as a leveraged play on the growing shift globally to alternative energy and carbon reduction, but particularly in Europe.
• With the imminent recommencement of prototype tank fabrication commercial progress could accelerate from this point with testing and certification of its proprietary hydrogen ‘storage tank’ design underpinning two hydrogen supply, offtake and shipping agreements becoming unconditional and material progress of the CO2 FEED evaluation in partnership with Yinson.
• Class approval for the tank design would be the anchor point from which the dual business streams crystallise.

• FNArena’s Treasure Chest reports on money making ideas from stockbrokers and other experts.
• Today’s idea is REA Group.
• -History suggests there is too much concern around Co-Star’s entry into the Australian market -RBC Capital suggests ACCC probe is likely to have a negligible outcome -REA’s competitive position, network effects and pricing model place remain robust -The stock’s valuation looks compelling within historical context

• Larvotto Resources (LRV AU) has disclosed a non-binding proposal from United States Antimony (UAMY US) (USAC) at 6 USAC shares for every 100 Larvotto shares.
• The offer is unattractive as the current implied offer value is 20% below the last close price and undervalues the core Hillgrove Mine based on the DFS’s NPV analysis.
• USAC’s share price meteoric rise YTD amplifies the risk of the all-scrip offer. The Board should push for better terms or outright reject the NBIO. 

• Pending Acquisition by Cosette Pharma: Mayne Pharma‘s future is largely defined by a pending acquisition by Cosette Pharmaceuticals, which aims to create a leading entity in the U.S. Women’s Health and Dermatology sectors. However, the deal is subject to a legal dispute initiated by Cosette, creating significant uncertainty around its completion.
• Strategic Focus and Turnaround: Following a period of financial distress and a major asset sale in 2022, management has refocused the company on its core specialty areas of Women’s Health and Dermatology. This strategy has led to significant improvements in recent financial performance, with strong revenue growth and a return to positive operating cash flow.
• Highly Competitive Landscape: The company operates in the intensely competitive generic and specialty pharmaceutical markets. While it possesses a portfolio of branded products, it faces constant pricing pressure from larger competitors and other generic manufacturers, necessitating strong commercial execution.

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• In Friendshoring Aussie Rare Earths, I flagged the possibility of the US taking equity stakes in Australian processing projects, as a means towards securing a supply of critical minerals. 
• Larvotto Resources (LRV AU), an explorer/evaluator/developer of gold and antimony, has now announced a NBIO from United States Antimony (UAMY US) (USAC) @ A$1.40/share, a 87.67% premium to undisturbed.
• USAC has also declared a 10% holding.  An independent board committee is assessing the approach. Due diligence has not yet been granted. That should be forthcoming.

• A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
• ECM developments: JST Group (6687 HK) and FineToday Holdings (420A JP) IPOs; Sany Heavy Industry (600031 CH) H Share listing.
• Event-Driven developments: Mayne Pharma (MYX AU),Soft99 Corp (4464 JP), Hangzhou Kangji Medical Instrument Co., Ltd. (9997 HK), Mandarin Oriental International (MAND SP), Genting Malaysia (GENM MK). 

• Wrkr Ltd (ASX:WRK) offers compliance solutions for Australian superannuation contributions and payroll including member onboarding, super payments, messaging and employee validation.
• We have taken the opportunity to incorporate the recent $15m capital raise into our numbers and fine tune client migration timing, which has resulted in reductions to our FY26 estimates, but an increase to our FY27 revenue forecasts as AustralianSuper (set to migrate between February and June 2026) is larger than our previous user assumptions.
• We also take a more aggressive view on near-term cost growth relative to revenue.

• Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.
• Highlights: Currently elevenpair trade opportunities across three markets and seven sectors persist.
• Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.

• Context: The Scentre Group (SCG AU) vs. Stockland (SGP AU) price-ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
• Highlights: Going long Scentre Group (SCG AU) and short Stockland (SGP AU) targets a 3% return.
• Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.

• Fenix Resources (FEX AU) reported a substantial increase in shipments, up 155%YoY/17%QoQ, to 885k tons, guiding a further ramp beyond 1 million tons in the December quarter. 
• The substantial numbers were followed by yet another share purchase by Chairman Jon Welborn, taking his holding in the company to ~3%. 
• Strong operating cashflows of over 43.9 million AUD for the quarter (175 million AUD annualized on a 350 million AUD market cap) could ramp further as Beebyn-W11 shipments increase.

• Trade call: Long the 2022 SL hybrid. Price in a likely SPT 1 miss, capture optionality around 101% redemption and the post-disclosure vendor lag.
• Miss risk: F&I intensity must fall about 5.4% from 2024 to meet the 2021 minus 5% SPT. Operational mix makes that hard.
• Catalyst path: Two windows. Pre-disclosure, trade miss probability. Post-disclosure, arbitrage the convergence until data vendors update.

• The Q3/25 production update was taken well by the market, with iron ore output near flat yoy, copper jumping 10%, and moderate growth for aluminum, alumina and bauxite
• Some reorganization has started under new CEO Simon Trott, with IOC reported with the core iron ore segment, and two divisions, Borates and Iron and Titanium, placed under review 
• We see risks from major iron ore market shifts and a potential cyclical downturn hitting copper and aluminum, and it could be fully valued on our below-consensus metal price estimates 

• As discussed in my April note Know Your Rare Earth Elements As China Restricts Exports, China escalated restrictions on the export of rare earths – to all countries.
• Last week, China ramped up export controls on five additional rare earths; in tandem with related technologies.
• The US recently struck a deal MP Materials (MP US) on light rare earths. The possibility of the US taking equity stakes in Australian processing projects could become a reality.

• Context: The GPT Group (GPT AU) vs. Stockland (SGP AU) price-ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
• Highlights: Going long The GPT Group (GPT AU) and short Stockland (SGP AU) targets a 5% return.
• Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.

• The NSW court has dismissed all Cosette claims relating to terminating its scheme implementation deed with Mayne Pharma (MYX AU).  
• While Cosette can appeal, the chances that the judgment will be overturned are low due to the comprehensive judgment. 
• The ruling will provide more certainty regarding the interpretation of MACs. The scheme is subject to FIRB approval, which should be forthcoming. At the last close, the spread was 30.7%.

• In a watershed decision, the Supreme Court of NSW ruled Cosette cannot terminate its Scheme for Mayne Pharma (MYX AU).
• The hearings were the first time a material adverse change clause had been considered by an Australian court under such circumstances.
• The transaction still requires FIRB signing off. Concerns linger over whether Cosette intends to close a South Australian plant. Mayne has previously dispelled these concerns. 

• The Chartist reports shares in Mineral Resources have seen their low, with risk now shifting to more upside.

• Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX AU) reported 3Q25 revenue of $206M, up 53% YoY and 1% QoQ.  Mainstay PSMA imaging revenue increased 17% YoY and 1% QoQ to $155M, driven by Illuccix.
• Telix has raised 2025 revenue guidance to $800–820M from $770–800M. During 9M25, the company recorded revenue of $512M, indicating 4Q25 revenue of $288–308M, up 45% QoQ.
• We are positive on the long-term growth prospect. With strong commercialization of existing products, rich pipeline, and localized manufacturing prowess, Telix is well-positioned to become a global radiopharmaceutical powerhouse.

• Cryosite Limited (ASX:CTE) is an Australian company specialising in temperature-controlled storage and logistics solutions for the life sciences and pharmaceutical industries, in particular for clinical trials and biological materials.
• CTE has released a Q1 FY26 trading update which demonstrated strong financial and operational performance for the quarter.
• The customer base seems to be increasing with existing clients expanding their work with CTE while new clients have been onboarded in recent months.

• Shares in DigiCo Infrastructure REIT have been re-invigorated following new contract wins and updated FY26 guidance by management.
• New contract wins for DigiCo Infrastructure REIT Inaugural FY26 guidance boosts market confidence Shares still trading at relative discounts to valuation and industry peers Debt levels high by infrastructure standards, highlights Ord Minnett

• RPMGlobal Holdings Limited (RUL AU) entered a scheme implementation deed with Caterpillar Inc (CAT US) at A$5.00 per share, a 32.6% premium to the undisturbed price.
• The key scheme conditions are RPM shareholder, FIRB and ACCC approval. RPM’s benign shareholder structure facilitates completion.
• The offer is attractive. At the last close and for an 18 February 2026 payment, the gross/annualised spread is 2.7%/7.8%.  

• BHP shares retesting the August low, then rallying to a recent high suggests the stock is poised to move higher, Fairmont Equities’ Michael Gable reports.

• Forrestania Resources is a junior exploration company with a diversified portfolio of gold, lithium, nickel, and copper projects strategically located in the well-endowed mineral belts of Western Australia.
• The company is actively advancing its key projects through exploration drilling, resource definition, and strategic acquisitions, with a recent focus on consolidating gold assets in the Forrestania and Southern Cross regions.
• As a pre-revenue exploration company, Forrestania is reliant on capital markets to fund its activities, making its financial performance and future prospects intrinsically linked to exploration success and commodity market sentiment.

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• Beetaloo Energy Australia Limited (ASX:BTL) is a gas development company, with onshore Northern Territory (NT) gas exploration and development assets.
• BTL has the largest tenement position in the highly prospective Greater McArthur Basin, which includes the Beetaloo Sub-basin.
• The Carpentaria-5H (C-5H) is in its testing phase with IP30 data expected in October.

• Context: The Fisher & Paykel Health (FPH AU) vs. ResMed Inc (RMD AU) price-ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
• Highlights: Going long Fisher & Paykel Health (FPH AU) and short ResMed Inc (RMD AU) targets a 7% return. However, ResMed is more attractively valued on PEG ratio basis.
• Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.

• Lynas Corp Ltd (LYC AU)‘s stock price has more than doubled in the last few months as equity markets rally, the rare earth boom continues, and export restrictions are imposed.
• The significant increase in market cap and free float market cap should result in the stock being added to a global index in November.
• There will be positioning for the inclusion (and that partly explains the recent run-up in the stock). But with export controls continuing, there could be further upside.

• Context: Friday’s sell-off occurred after the Australian market closed, but several ASX-listed companies were swept up in the decline through dual listings or U.S.-traded ADRs.
• This Insight looks at the impact on prominent S&P/ASX 200 constituents — including BHP, CSL, and major banks. While some companies showed limited movement, others, such as BHP, experienced sharper declines.
• Why Read: Understand where the Australian market might be headed when trading resumes after the weekend.

• Innovative Niche Player: CleanSpace is a designer and manufacturer of advanced Powered Air Purifying Respirators (PAPRs), distinguished by its patented, compact, and ergonomic all-in-one design that eliminates the need for cumbersome belt-and-hose units common among competitors.
• Financial Turnaround in Progress: The company is demonstrating a significant operational recovery, with strong revenue growth of 26% in FY25, expanding gross margins to nearly 75%, and achieving positive EBITDA and operating cash flow in the second half of FY25. It is on a trajectory to reach sustained breakeven.
• Strategic Growth Focus: Having pivoted from a pandemic-driven healthcare focus back to its core industrial market, CleanSpace is pursuing growth through geographic expansion in the US, Europe, and Asia, alongside new product launches and growing its recurring revenue from consumables, which now account for 47% of sales.

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• EQ Resources is repositioning itself as a key Western tungsten producer by restarting and expanding its flagship Mt Carbine mine in Queensland, Australia, aiming to capitalize on a tightening global market.
• The company is currently in a high-growth, high-spend phase, evidenced by significant revenue increases from a low base, alongside substantial net losses and negative operating cash flows as it invests in ramping up production.
• Favorable market dynamics, including strong demand from the aerospace, defense, and electronics sectors and China’s dominance and export restrictions on tungsten, provide a strong tailwind for EQR’s strategy to become a reliable ex-China supplier.

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• Context: The ANZ (ANZ AU) vs. Macquarie (MQG AU) price-ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity. 
• Highlights: Long Macquarie, short ANZ targets a 6% return. Friday’s U.S. sell-off and today’s ANZ’s strategy update could drive early trading volatility in the pair.
• Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.

• RPMGlobal Holdings Limited (RUL AU), a mining software technology provider, has entered into a Scheme with Caterpillar Inc (CAT US).
• Caterpillar, which currently holds no shares in RPMGlobal, is offering A$5/share (the same as in the NBIO), a 32.8% premium to undisturbed. Terms have not been declared final.
• FIRB and ACCC approvals are conditions. FIRB won’t be an issue. The key ACCC question is whether the combo has significant direct market overlap that triggers substantial competition concerns.

• Earlier this year, Genesis Capital secured ~89..27% in Pacific Smiles (PSQ AU), an operator of dental centers, via a A$1.90/share tendering Offer. Co-founder Alison Hughes resolutely maintained her 10.01% stake.
• PSQ has now announced Genesis has returned to the well with a A$2.20/share unconditional Offer. 
• That’s a solid 37.5% premium to last close. And within the IE’s revised fair value range of A$2.13-A$2.56/share, who declared termns fiar and reasonable.