Australia

• In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the December 2025 index rebal event.
• We expect one change for ASX 50, one change for ASX 100, and four changes for ASX 200. 
• The official index changes will be announced after the close on Friday 5th December 2025.

• Northern Star Resources (NST AU) is looking to raise around US$725m in a secondary placement.
• The proceeds will be used to pay down Gold Fields.
• In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.

• While FY25 results for Myer revealed resilient sales, a step-up in costs was cause for concern though analysts generally believe management’s strategy reset remains on track.
• -Myer’s FY25 result disappoints on costs, shares weaken -Analysts posit it is still early in management’s multi-year transformation plan -Step-up in CODB costs is structural, cautions Ord Minnett -If all goes well, shareholders can expect significant step-up in dividends

• Aureka Limited (ASX:AKA) is a junior gold exploration company with four projects spread across key current and historical gold-producing regions in the state of Victoria, Australia.
• The company was “rebooted” from the administration of Navarre Minerals Ltd (ASX:NML), with a new board and management team reviving the original gold projects in late 2024.
• These projects retain significant exploration potential upon which AKA is committed to testing with ongoing exploration planned throughout CY25.

• Cochlear Ltd (COH AU) expects to report FY26 underlying net profit of $435–460M, an 11–17% increase on FY25, up 5–11% on a comparative (cloud adjusted) basis.
• The Nucleus Nexa System has been launched in Europe and Asia Pacific in mid-June 2025 and will be launched in the U.S. by the end of Q1FY26.
• The company expects strong FY26 revenue growth in developed markets from the launch of the new Nucleus Nexa implant, with overall revenue and earnings growth weighted to the second half.

• Nanosonics is poised for significant growth with the upcoming US launch of its new Coris® endoscope cleaning system in Q1 FY26, targeting a substantial new market segment beyond its established Trophon® franchise.
• The company operates a highly attractive ‘razor and blade’ business model, with a large installed base of its Trophon® ultrasound probe disinfection units driving recurring high-margin consumable sales.
• While the growth outlook is strong, the stock trades at premium valuation multiples, and faces key risks including competition, execution on the Coris® launch, and potential reliance on partners for new product success.

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• Following another unsuccessful bid for Santos, analysts review the company’s outlook with a focus on valuation and dividend support.
• -Santos’ takeover bid scuppered for the third time -Share price premium eases, focus returns to company fundamentals -Analysts review valuation and dividend support -Macquarie sees “extraordinary value” for long-term investors

• Press reports indicated that China could temporarily suspend purchases of BHP’s iron ore from Jimblebar, which could account for a mid-single digit percentage of revenue
• The UK press reported Geraldine Slattery will likely be BHP’s new CEO, who currently heads BHP’s Australian operations and has over three decades with the company
• BHP is 4% above our DCF, its 2.8x P/B is not clearly excessive or attractive, and we see risks to iron ore, copper and coal prices from a broad slowdown

• Cash Converters International (ASX:CCV) is a consumer finance company operating as a service provider, owner and franchisor of second-hand goods and financial services stores in Australia and internationally.
• CCV is currently executing a clearly stated growth strategy involving the reshaping of its personal finance business complemented by growing its corporately-owned store network through acquisition.
• The recent FY25 result was a strong representation of a business that is successfully transitioning and a good leading indicator of the changing business mix which should ultimately result in a business that is geographically broadened yet operating a simplified lending business, with a lower risk profile and improved growth funding optionality.

• As previously forecasted, the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) ended its rally at the end of August/early September.
• The index has corrected for the past 3 weeks and is now very oversold according to our models.
• In the last 3 days the index has been showing some momentum, this insight will try to target potential profit targets for the next 2-3 weeks.

• Canyon Resources (CAY AU) is looking to raise around US$132m in a primary placement.
• The company will use the proceeds to fund capital expenditures, as well as increase its stake in the railway line serving its mine in Central Africa’s Cameroon.
• In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.

• Market Leader with Strong Brands: IAG is the largest general insurer in Australia and New Zealand, possessing a portfolio of trusted brands such as NRMA, CGU, and NZI, which provides a significant competitive advantage and customer loyalty.
• Favorable Pricing Environment: The company is benefiting from a favorable pricing cycle, with premium rate increases driving top-line growth and improved insurance margins, which is expected to continue supporting profitability.
• Significant Catastrophe Risk Exposure: IAG’s earnings are inherently volatile due to its high exposure to natural peril events, such as floods, storms, and bushfires, which can lead to substantial claims costs and pressure on profitability.

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• Pivoting to a Pure-Play Insurer: Following the sale of its banking arm to ANZ, Suncorp is now a dedicated trans-Tasman insurer, simplifying its business model and focusing on its core competencies in general insurance across Australia and New Zealand.
• Strong Market Position vs. Headwinds: Suncorp is the second-largest non-life insurer in Australia and New Zealand, boasting strong brands like AAMI and GIO. However, it faces significant challenges from increasing natural hazard costs due to climate change, rising reinsurance costs, and growing competition.
• Capital Management and Shareholder Returns: The bank sale has unlocked significant capital, with a large portion intended for shareholder returns through buybacks and special dividends. Future profitability and dividend stability will heavily depend on disciplined underwriting, managing claims inflation, and navigating the volatile weather environment.

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• Established Market Leader with Resilient Earnings Power: Westpac is one of Australia’s ‘Big Four’ banks, commanding a significant market share in mortgages, business lending, and deposits. This entrenched position, supported by a multi-brand strategy, provides a stable customer base and consistent revenue streams. Despite regulatory headwinds and competitive pressures, the bank has demonstrated robust financial performance and an ability to generate returns above its cost of equity through the economic cycle.
• Focus on Digital Transformation and Cost Management to Drive Future Growth: In response to evolving customer preferences and the rise of fintech, Westpac is making substantial investments in digital technologies to enhance customer experience and operational efficiency. A key strategic priority is a cost-cutting initiative aimed at improving its cost-to-income ratio, which is crucial for sustaining profitability in a competitive market.
• Navigating a Challenging Macroeconomic and Regulatory Environment: The bank’s performance is closely tied to the health of the Australian and New Zealand economies, including interest rate fluctuations, inflation, and the housing market. The highly regulated nature of the financial sector presents ongoing compliance costs and the risk of penalties. Navigating these external pressures while managing credit quality will be critical for future success.

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• Woodside Energy is a leading global energy provider, significantly strengthened by its 2022 merger with BHP’s petroleum business, making it a top-10 global independent energy company and the largest on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX).
• The company’s strategy is heavily focused on the development of major Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) projects, particularly Scarborough in Western Australia, to meet the growing long-term demand for natural gas in Asia and other global markets.
• While committed to shareholder returns through dividends, Woodside faces significant risks from volatile commodity prices, substantial capital expenditure on growth projects, and increasing pressure from investors and regulators regarding its climate strategy and emissions.

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• • The Upper Austrian State Administrative Court has rejected objections from environmental activist groups regarding drilling and testing at Welchau.
• The court confirmed that Environmental Clearances were issued in full compliance with applicable regulations.
• • ADX is now authorized to resume operations at the Welchau-1 site during the winter drilling window, spanning 1 October to 31 March.

• Global LNG Powerhouse with a Diversified Portfolio: Woodside is a leading global energy provider, and Australia’s largest independent oil and gas company, with a strong portfolio of assets in Australia, the Americas, and Africa. The company’s recent acquisition of Louisiana LNG has positioned it as a global LNG powerhouse, complementing its established Australian LNG business.
• Commitment to Growth and Shareholder Returns: Woodside is actively pursuing a number of major growth projects, including the Scarborough Energy Project, Trion, and Louisiana LNG, which are expected to significantly increase production and cash flow in the coming years. The company has a strong track record of returning value to shareholders through dividends, with a payout of over US$9.7 billion since the merger with BHP’s petroleum business in 2022.
• Navigating the Energy Transition: Woodside is focused on developing a low-cost, lower-carbon, and diversified portfolio to thrive through the energy transition. The company is investing in new energy projects, such as hydrogen and ammonia, while also working to reduce emissions from its existing operations.

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• Context: The Westpac Banking (WBC AU) vs. VanEck Australian Banks (MVB AU) price-ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average.
• Highlights: The dislocation highlights the recent outperformance of Westpac vs. some of its peers, pointing to a potential underweight in a portfolio context.
• Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.

DUG Technology has received the first purchase order associated with the contract award from Petronas earlier this month, for the first year of the three-year contract. The total net value of the contract is now expected to be $12m higher than originally disclosed, at c $30m. We have updated our forecasts to reflect the higher value, with FY26 EPS upgraded by 3.3% and FY27 by 6.0%.

Created through a merger of equals between Sayona Mining and Piedmont Lithium, Elevra Lithium (ELV) provides unparalleled exposure to the North American hard rock lithium market. The largest regional pure play spodumene producer, Elevra has a strong pipeline of advanced development projects, offering flexible growth, and is well positioned to benefit from the growing localisation of the lithium supply chain in the US. Trading at a large discount to peers on sales multiples, we see the potential for a meaningful value uplift once the company achieves profitability.

• Context: The National Australia Bank (NAB AU) vs. VanEck Australian Banks ETF (MVB AU) price-ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average.
• Highlights: The dislocation highlights the recent outperformance of NAB vs. some of its peers, pointing to a potential underweight in a portfolio context.
• Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.

• Back on the 23rd June, eftpos terminal provider SmartPay Holdings (SMP AU/NZ) entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed withShift4 Payments (FOUR US).
• Shift4 is offering NZ$1.20, a 90.5% premium to undisturbed. The Offer has the unanimous backing of both boards. Microequities with 13.3% of shares out, is supportive.
• The Scheme Booklet is now out, with a Scheme Meeting on the 14th October, and expected implementation on or before the 4th November. The IE (Calibre) says “fair & reasonable“.

• Mitsubishi Motors (7211 JP) has aggressively built a 19.93% position in FleetPartners (FPR AU), an Aussie provider of fleet leasing services, paying up to $3.10/share for a ~15% stake.
• Earlier this year, Sydney PE outfit Pacific Equity Partners privatised Sg Fleet (SGF AU), one of FleetPartners key competitors.
• MMC said it has no current intention to acquire control or a make a takeover offer. Mmm. I wouldn’t be so sure. 

• Broadwood Partners opposes Alcon’s $28/share offer for STAAR, citing opportunistic timing and a flawed sale process.
• Alcon seeks STAAR to fill a portfolio gap in phakic intraocular lenses, potentially enhancing US market penetration.
• STAAR’s China sales decline attributed to inventory issues, with management predicting recovery by H2 2025.

• D3 Energy Limited (ASX:D3E) represents a compelling investment case leveraged play on natural gas and helium projects in South Africa.
• The association of natural gas with globally significant helium concentrations gives the company a material point of differentiation compared to its listed upstream peers.
• D3E has delivered significantly positive results through its first stage drilling and testing activity supporting an independent certification of initial reserves and resources underpinning a Production Right Area (PRA) application that could see the company at a project sanction stage by end-2026.

Percheron Therapeutics is an emerging immuno-oncology-focused biotech with a business case anchored on its recent in-licensing of HMBD-002, a Phase II-ready, potentially first-in-class anti-VISTA immune checkpoint inhibitor. HMBD-002’s prospects are underpinned by wide expression of VISTA on tumour cells and a mechanistically distinct IgG4 backbone, allowing for non-depleting VISTA inhibition, overcoming a key limitation of other IgG1 anti-VISTA antibodies. Supported by encouraging preclinical and Phase I data, management plans to commence Phase II trials in CY26, a key upcoming catalyst for a share price re-rating. We view Percheron as high-risk, high-reward, with potentially sizeable upside optionality from broad labelling potential. Cash reserves of A$10.2m should provide a runway into FY27. We initiate coverage with a valuation of A$66.7m or 6.1c/share.

• JSE indices are due for rebalancing in the closing auction on Friday.
• GLN will enter the Top 40, with APN falling out (projections sent out on 26 Aug, confirmed by the JSE on Wednesday 3 Sep).
• There is quite a bit on the go on the economic calendar this week – FOMC on Wednesday evening, BOE and SARB on Thursday. 

• Iron ore prices rose 1.3% WoW to 106 USD/ton but underperformed the solid performance of the commodities complex, which grew close to 2% WoW.
• With the investigation into the 13 deaths at Rio’s Simandou project construction and suspension of operations since August 24th, supply concerns surrounding its commencement are deepening (read details in insight). 
• We like Fenix Resources (FEX AU) and are pounding the table on the name. Read our recent update, Fenix Resources (FEX AU): Exciting Value-Adding Catalyst Can Triple Production Again. 

Actinogen’s FY25 results highlighted the company’s progress in advancing its lead candidate, Xanamem, through its pivotal XanaMIA Phase IIb/III study in patients with biomarker-positive Alzheimer’s disease (AD). With the recruitment of the 100th patient in the study on 30 June, Actinogen remains on track to report a pre-planned interim efficacy (futility) analysis in early Q126. We expect a successful outcome would strengthen confidence in the AD programme. Financial results were in line with expectations and Actinogen reiterated that it remains funded into mid-late CY26. Our valuation is largely unchanged, at A$720.2m, or A$0.23/share.

Canyon Resources has released a definitive feasibility study (DFS) on the Minim Martap bauxite project in Cameroon, confirming its attractive economics. The study provides up-to-date operating and capital cost estimates, as well as the revised staged ramp up to an expanded capacity of 10Mtpa. The project has been largely de-risked, with funds secured to commence production in Q1 CY26. This puts the company in a strong position to capitalise on the attractive bauxite market fundamentals.

• Friday post-close the MarketVector™️ Global Gold Miners Index announced its rebalance changes and as a result, the flows for the VanEck Gold Miners ETF are known.
• As per the expectations of our Quiddity Index PS, the MVGDX added only Ramelius Resources (RMS AU) resulting in 8 ADDs and 24 DELs for the VanEck benchmark change.
• The significant move in gold prices the last month have more than doubled the deletion/capping flow total to $12.6bn. There are some REALLY big flows here. 

• Reportedly, heavy earthmoving equipment play Emeco Holdings (EHL AU) is in the crosshairs.  
• Local media are indicating that Emeco has been testing the water on possible domestic suitors, and this has spurred interest from overseas. 
• The share price is up 27% YTD and 58% over the past year, and currently trading around a four-year high. 

• ADX has released further details on its C.R 150.AU permit; located in shallow waters offshore western Sicily, ~50 km from a potential onshore tie-in to the TransMed pipeline, which transports Algerian gas to Europe.
• While initial efforts centred on the Nilde oil field, ADX has shifted its strategic focus toward gas, reflecting the evidence of high quality gas from historic oil exploration in the permit, Europe’s growing demand for domestic supply and the recent offshore development of nearby Argo-Cassiopea—the largest greenfield gas project in Italy (~350 bcf).
• Italy’s current regulatory and political environment remains supportive of upstream activity, with continued exploration across the Sicily Channel.

• There is 1 add for the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index but the VanEck Gold Miners ETF will buy 8 stocks and sell 24 stocks due to a benchmark change.
• Estimated one-way turnover is 26.8% and the round-trip trade for the ETF is US$12.7bn. There are 23 stocks with over 5x ADV to trade.
• The ETF adds have underperformed the ETF sells in the last month, but a basket of ETF upweights has outperformed a basket of ETF downweights.

• There are 13 adds, 2 deletes and 1 listing change for the VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ US) in September. There are capping and float changes too.
• Estimated one-way turnover is 14.5% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$2.5bn. There are 12 stocks with over 3x ADV to trade from passive trackers.
• There are multiple stocks that will have same-way flows from other index trackers at the same time, and the impact will be amplified.

• I summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
• Highest spreads: Soft99 Corp (4464 JP), Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), Smart Share Global (EM US), Shengjing Bank Co Ltd H (2066 HK), Dongfeng Motor (489 HK), ENN Energy (2688 HK).
• Lowest spreads: Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK), Pacific Industrial (7250 JP), Humm Group (HUM AU), Mandom Corp (4917 JP), Ainsworth Game Technology (AGI AU), PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU).

• PolyNovo Ltd (PNV AU) reported 29% YoY growth in FY25 revenue to A$119M, driven by 29% YoY growth in U.S. sales to A$88M. RoW sales grew 30% YoY to AS$30M.
• PolyNovo expects continued sales growth as multiple products received relevant regulatory clearance. Leveraging on proven track record in full thickness burn procedures, PolyNovo is driving adoption in additional surgical areas.
• Strong FY25 result enhances conviction on the growth prospects. Broader rollout of NovoSorb MTX across multiple regions and increasing demand from plastic and reconstructive procedures are expected drive growth.

• Verbrec Limited (ASX:VBC) provides engineering, asset management, operations and maintenance, and training to the energy, mining, infrastructure and defence industries in Australia, New Zealand, PNG and the Pacific Islands.
• The company operates two divisions in Engineering (~90% of FY25 revenue) and Competency Training (~10% of FY25 revenue).
• The company has announced that it has signed an agreement to sell Competency Training to RelyOn Australia Pty Ltd for a headline purchase price of $11.5m, payable full in cash on completion, but subject to adjustments for working capital and net cash/debt at completion.