Equity Bottom-Up

• We believe the boycott against JD.com benefited Alibaba’s Taobao and Tmall Group in 3Q25 results. 
• We believe 3Q25 results will not reflect the benefits of the disposal of Intime and Sun Art despite that Alibaba may not revise its financial data in 3Q25 results.
• We set a stock upside of 42% for the next twelve months.

• BHP plans for a small increase in uranium production at Olympic Dam, with speculation on the impact
• Interview with Grant Isaac from Cameco sheds light on the uranium market trends

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• SMIC’s 1Q25 guidance is for revenue to increase by 6% to 8% QoQ, and the gross margin to range from 19% to 21%.   
• Client revenue contribution from China/Europe/US has changed from 80.8%/15.7%/3.5% in 4Q23 to 89.1%/8.9%/2% in 4Q24. These numbers indicate that SMIC is gradually becoming independent from Europe and the US. 
• SMIC’s guidance for the year 2025 is that revenue growth is expected to be higher than the industry average in the same markets.

• Qualcomm reported a strong financial performance in its latest quarter, with revenue increasing 17% year-over year to $11.67 billion, surpassing analyst expectations.
• Growth was primarily driven by increased sales in its handset and automotive segments.
• Despite a broader market slowdown, Qualcomm’s handset revenue rose 13%, benefiting from higher premium-tier smartphone sales and design wins with major manufacturers like Samsung and Chinese OEMs. The company also reported a 61% increase in automotive revenue to $961 million, reflecting strong demand for its Snapdragon Digital Chassis solutions.

• Advanced Micro Devices reported fourth-quarter revenue of $7.7 billion, a 24% increase year-over-year, driven by strong growth in the data center and client segments.
• The data center segment, which includes AI accelerators and server processors, delivered $3.9 billion in revenue, up 69% year-over-year but missing analyst expectations of $4.09 billion.
• The company gained market share in CPUs, securing key wins with hyperscalers like Microsoft, Meta, and Google.

• Alphabet Inc. has faced a significant market correction, with its stock declining by 5% over the past week, leading to a $200 billion reduction in its market capitalization.
• This sell-off followed the release of the company’s latest financial results, which, despite reporting revenue growth, highlighted structural challenges that have raised concerns among investors.
• The primary issues stem from Alphabet Inc.’s substantial capital expenditure on artificial intelligence, slowing momentum in cloud computing, and increasing competitive pressures from more agile AI players such as OpenAI and DeepSeek.

• LVC continues to increase its holdings in Henlius, indicating that LVC remains optimistic about Henlius as its internationalization process significantly accelerated. We are interested to see Lin Lijun’s next move. 
• In the short to medium term, based on our conservative forecast on peak sales of HANQUYOU/HANSIZHUANG in overseas markets and domestic product sales, Henlius’ market value could reach RMB13-16 billion.
• Considering other candidates(e.g. HLX15, HLX11, HLX14), indication expansion, drug combination, etc., revenue of Henlius could reach about RMB8-9 billion in the long term, with market value to reach RMB24-27 billion.

• Toyota Motor Corporation’s financial results for the second quarter of fiscal year 2025 reveal a period of cautious resilience amidst both internal challenges and external pressures.
• The company’s operating income for the first half of the fiscal year was recorded at JPY 2.4642 trillion, closely matching the figures from the same period last year, despite hurdles including production halts due to certification issues and the incremental costs associated with addressing these disruptions.
• Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

• Long China Communications Construction (1800 HK), short China Railway Group Ltd H (390 HK) is a good strategy to capitalise on the recent underperformance of CCCC.
• CCCC has a stronger contract momentum than CRG – its FY24 new contracts were up 7.3%, but CRG was down 12.4%. CCCC is also better positioned for urban construction growth.
• In terms of dividend yield, CCCC is higher at 6.8% for FY25, yet CRG is only 6.3%. CCCC’s performance should pick up in the rest of 2025.

• Q4 Risks Remain: Market conditions deteriorated in late 2024, and key data points suggest a potential miss on Q4 earnings expectations.
• Focus on 2025 Outlook: Investors should shift attention to Shimano’s guidance, capital allocation strategy, and potential shareholder return initiatives in the coming year.
• Long-Term Value: Despite short-term uncertainties, Shimano’s strong fundamentals and disciplined strategy position it well for sustainable growth and high returns.

• OpenAI Joins the AI Chip Race — Partnering with TSMC and Broadcom to Reduce Nvidia Reliance
• TSMC January Revenue Rises 35.9% — But Reduces 1Q25E Expectations Due to Quake Impact
• Hon Hai Guides for 1Q25E Growth to Be Above Average and ‘Strong’

• Borosil Renewables (BRSL IN) is India’s largest solar glass manufacturer having c apacity of 1000TPD in India and 350TPD in Germany. 
• With the rising demand and government anti-dumping duty support company is increasing 50% capacity in India to 1500TPD in the upcoming 18 Months. 
• Company also raised INR 700Crs of funds via preferential, 100Crs via equity from promoter and 600Crs via warrants from HNIs and family offices for capex and loan repayment.

• On Sunday 9th of February, the people of Ecuador headed to the polls to elect a new president. The first round was narrowly won by incumbent Noboa.
• A run-off between Noboa and Gonzalez is planned for April 13th. A victory for either candidate is bullish Ecuador mining companies as both have a pro-mining stance.
• Solaris Resources has been often targeted by anti-mining protestors in the past but a new stable government and a new Solaris CEO could catapult stock higher.

• Cirrus Logic recently reported its financial performance for the third quarter of the fiscal year 2025, revealing both opportunities and challenges.
• The company announced revenues of $555.7 million, surpassing the upper limit of its guidance range due to stronger-than-anticipated demand in the smartphone sector.
• However, this quarter represented a 10% decline in sales year-over-year, attributed largely to a decrease in smartphone volumes and adjustments in the fiscal calendar.

• VET is undervalued, trading at a price target of C$26.00/share with a 20% yield on 2025E levered free cash flow
• The company plans to grow production and sustain cash flow for another decade, with a strong balance sheet and attractive reinvestment opportunities
• VET has exposure to European gas pricing, high netbacks, and slow decline rates, with management committed to returning 50% of free cash flow to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)’s shares were up 3.5% (55,600 won) while KOSPI was down 0.3% today. We believe there were two major reasons for this.
• First, there was a recent meeting among Lee Jae Yong (Samsung Electronics), Masayoshi Son (Softbank), and Sam Altman (Open AI) regarding a potential alliance regarding the new Stargate Project.
• Second, there has been increased speculation regarding additional total shareholder returns measures by Samsung Electronics that could be announced in the coming weeks. 

• Columbia Sportswear Company’s fourth quarter and full-year financial performance for 2024 presented a mixed picture rooted in market dynamics and strategic initiatives.
• On the earnings call, the company leadership, including CEO Tim Boyle, highlighted achievements in inventory management, cost savings, and international market growth, while acknowledging challenges faced in North American market conditions.
• Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

• M3 Inc (2413 JP) reported 3QFY03/2025 earnings today. Both revenue and OP grew YoY as well as beat consensus estimates. Most of revenue growth came from the ELAN acquisition.
• Medical Platform’s earnings have continued to decline as a result of spending cuts by pharmaceutical companies while there has been a slight improvement in Overseas earnings during the quarter.
• Though the overall declining trend in m3’s earnings has eased, we expect the earnings growth to remain weak. ELAN’s margins have continued to deteriorate.

• We present our outlook for Taste Gourmet’s (8371 HK) FY25 earnings, which will be announced in mid-June. We estimate revenue growth of 21% and net profit growth of 13%.
• The mainboard listing catalyst is still in play with the company at the query stage with the SFC Taste Gourmet (8371 HK): GEM to Mainboard Listing Catalyst in Play.
• Based on our earnings preview, the stock trades at 5.5x FY25PE, 2x EV-EBITDA, with 35% of the market cap in cash and a 10% dividend yield. 

• DXC Technology showed promising third-quarter fiscal year 2025 results, driven by effective operational changes and strategic initiatives.
• The company reported revenue, adjusted EBIT margin, and non-GAAP EPS above its forecast expectations.
• Revenue declined by 4.2% year-over-year on an organic basis, while the adjusted EBIT margin increased to 8.9%, reflecting a year-over-year expansion.

• We forecast Q4 consolidated revenue of ¥9.7bn (+27% YoY); Operating profit (OP) is expected to grow +129% YoY to ¥1.0bn in Q4
• For FY25, we expect the company to guide for +25% revenue growth and OP +160% to ¥5.7bn, significantly ahead of the street estimate of ¥4.8bn.
• Appier’s AI-powered solutions operate on top of generative AI models, utilizing proprietary data and analytics to enhance corporate online advertising efficiency.

• Smartphone revenues increased by 31% in 2024 and will increase by 15-20% in 2025 in my view: small volume growth (5%), ASP increase (AI in chips), share gains in premium.  
• MTK multiple bets in Automotive, AI, ARM CPU are starting to pay off. Nvidia GB100 revenues mid-25, AI Accelerator revenue start mid-26, Nvidia Auto revenue in 2H26 – my estimates.
• Consensus forecasts revenues increasing +35% from 2024 to 2026, Net Income +30%. That should be the low-end of the range. The stock is trading at 21.1x 2025 EPS, 17.6x 2026.

• Growing Signs That ARM-Based Chips Are Set to Disrupt the PC Market
• Qualcomm’s Earnings Call Insights — Snapdragon’s ARM-Based Push into PCs Successfully Taking Significant Market Share
• Mediatek Earnings Call Highlights — Reiterates ARM-Based Entry into PC Market with AI Supercomputer CPU in Collaboration with NVIDIA

• Q125 revenues of $11.7 billion, up 18% YoY, up 15% QoQ and marginally above the high end of the guided range. This represented the company’s highest ever quarterly revenue
• In December, Snapdragon X Series had more than 10% share of the greater than $800 Windows laptops in U.S. retail.
• A recent hire suggests Qualcomm has an ace up their sleeve and that they are poised to launch yet another diversification gambit

• Tam Jai Intl (2217 HK)‘s suspension has led to speculation about a privatisation or takeover. Its huge net cash, equal to 115% of market capitalisation, makes it appealing. 
• Its controlling shareholder Toridoll Holding Limited owns a 74.61% stake and there is no shareholder with more than a 5% interest. This makes a deal seemingly simple.
• Assuming priced at the average P/B of 1.63x, this means HK$1.90, or 110% premium to the latest close, which is costly to the major shareholder.

• Yum China Holdings (9987 HK) posted robust year-over-year operating profit growth in 4Q2024 on the back of low single digit sales increase and operating efficiencies.
• Despite significant sector headwinds, Yum China has managed to outperform peers and grow ahead of sector in 2024 by swiftly adapting  to shifting consumer preferences.
• Yum China’s value-for-money QSR model with mid-tier pricing amidst tough sector outlook implies limited margin upside, a likely single-digit sales growth outlook, and a modest dividend yield for 2025.

• Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP) has revised revenue guidance for 2024 to ¥2,320B from previous ¥2,310B. Pharmaceutical business and nutraceutical business performed strongly.
• 2024 operating profit guidance have been revised slightly upwards to ¥323B. Due to the impact of temporary tax adjustment in U.S., net profit guidance raised by 43% to ¥343B.
• Otsuka shares have rallied 40% in the last one year. With multiple growth drivers at play Otsuka is poised for accelerated growth.

• Revenue increased by 4.4% YoY to JPY75.1bn; net income rose 86.3% YoY due to investment gains.
• Publishing printing revenue declined YoY; operating loss narrowed by JPY138mn YoY, but price pass-through was slower than expected.
• Revenue from business forms rose 8.8% YoY; operating profit exceeded expectations due to cost reductions despite weak BPO performance.

• Sales decreased by 13.6% YoY to JPY11.9bn, with operating profit and recurring profit declining by 38.7% and 37.5% respectively.
• Pachinko and pachislot machine market showed deceleration; company focused on AI business expansion and graphics LSI sales.
• New Businesses segment reported an operating loss of JPY377mn, with sales declining by 8.1% YoY to JPY340mn.

• Revenue increased by 10.9% YoY to JPY26.1bn, driven by higher demand for temporary engineers and staffing rates.
• Cumulative Q3 pre-tax profit rose 43.3% YoY to JPY3.5bn, with significant contributions from Cognavi Staffing and staffing rate increases.
• Cognavi India recorded JPY15mn revenue and JPY279mn operating loss in cumulative Q3 FY03/25 due to upfront investments.

• TSMC implements restrictions on Chinese IC firms to follow US semiconductor controls, limiting access to advanced chip technologies.
• Estonian defense delegation seeks collaboration with Taiwan on drones, highlighting growing partnership between the two countries.
• ASE faces leadership uncertainty after chairman’s heir tragically passes away, impacting the future direction of the semiconductor giant.

• Clean Science and Technology (CLEAN IN) is one of the leading chemical manufacturers globally of functionally critical specialty chemicals, Pharmaceutical Intermediates, and FMCG Chemicals.
• It has embarked on a massive expansion by commissioning a new plant to manufacture HALS and is also spending additional capex to manufacture new products.
• With forensics, we pay attention to excessive remuneration being paid to promoters, concentration risk from top customers, and increase in attrition of permanent employees.

• Sify Technologies Ltd is planning to tap into the burgeoning demand for data centers in the India via a INR3,000 crore IPO
• Sify has aggressive expansion plans in place with the aim to triple its data center capacity to more than 350 MW in the coming years.
• We expect the value of standalone data center business to be more than the current market cap of Sify. In our view, IPO will unlock value for existing Sify shareholders.

• Relevant departments are discussing the promotion of drugs included in VBP scope to enter retail pharmacies. However, the new business model will be detrimental to valuation performance for retail pharmacies.
• The gap in the distribution of funds among biotech companies is rapidly widening. We suggest investors focus on leading biotech rather than take risks in areas with higher uncertainties.
• Vesync is a good company. Due to the low liquidity, the Proposal presents a good opportunity for shareholders to exit. Considering its future growth potential, Share Alternative can be considered.

• Spotify Technology S.A., a leading global audio streaming service, reported a strong conclusion to its fiscal year 2024, highlighted by record metrics across multiple fronts.
• The company achieved its highest-ever fourth-quarter addition of Monthly Active Users (MAUs) and a substantial increase in premium subscribers, reflecting positively on its growth strategies and customer engagement efforts.
• Positives from the performance include the notable growth in Spotify’s MAUs, adding 35 million users to reach 675 million, alongside 11 million new subscribers bringing the total to 263 million.

• Bank Syariah Indonesia Tbk PT (BRIS IJ) reported 11% QoQ net profit in 4Q24
• Credit costs are down nearly 75% QoQ and annually, there are improving figures
• Fee income growth is relatively new, ROA expansion can continue, to even >3% from this

• Amgen Inc. highlighted substantial achievements and growth potential for 2024 while outlining some challenges and strategies moving forward.
• The company’s financial results reflected its success across various therapeutic areas, despite facing pricing pressures and patent expirations.
• Revenue for the full year of 2024 reached $33.4 billion, reflecting a significant 19% increase year-over-year, driven mainly by a 23% volume increase across products.

• Chipotle Mexican Grill’s fourth-quarter 2024 results present a mixed picture of robust growth and operational challenges.
• The company saw a 13% increase in sales, reaching $2.8 billion for the quarter, driven by a 5.4% increase in comparable sales and a notable 4% increase in transaction growth.
• For the full fiscal year 2024, sales grew by 15% to $11.3 billion, with a 7.4% increase in comparable sales including over 5% transaction growth.

• Allegheny Technologies Inc. (ATI) reported robust financial results for the fourth quarter of 2024 and the full year.
• Its performance highlights include a sequential revenue increase of 12% in the fourth quarter, reaching $1.2 billion, and adjusted EBITDA surpassing guidance at $210 million.
• For the full year, ATI achieved nearly $4.4 billion in revenue, marking its highest since 2012, with a 5% year-over-year increase despite industry challenges.

• Electronic Arts Inc. (EA) had a mixed third-quarter fiscal 2025 performance, which presented both challenges and positive developments.
• On the downside, the company faced a financial performance below expectations, notably with its key franchises.
• The newly launched “Dragon Age: The Veilguard,” despite being well-received critically, did not perform as expected due to the competitive nature of the single-player RPG market.

• Introduction to the Odd Lots Podcast with hosts Jill Wiesenthal and Tracy Alloway
• Discussion with guest Sean Sham Sankar, CTO of Palantir, about defense spending and technology
• Focus on the importance of data integration and human decision-making in the defense industry

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• CP ALL (CPALL TB) has seen a rout in its share price as investors worry that it may be drawn into investing in Seven & I Holdings.
• Indications suggest that if it was to invest, the stake would be much smaller than previously reported and it would likely come with some beneficial concessions.
• CP ALL (CPALL TB) continues to see a strong recovery in both sales and profitability, with a positive outlook for FY2025, whilst valuations have been compressed to attractive levels.

• Sify Technologies (SIFY US) is planning a Rs. 3,000 crore IPO for its data centre subsidiary, Sify Infinite Spaces, aiming to unlock significant hidden value and realign its market valuation.
• The IPO underscores rapid growth in India’s data centre market, driven by Digital India and 5G, offering a strategic edge with lower capital costs versus global peers.
• Investors can capitalize on a notable valuation arbitrage, as Sify’s data centre arm is vastly undervalued compared to the parent’s market cap, promising long-term upside.

• 1Q25 outlook is NT$140.8-151.8 billion, up 2-10% QoQ and up 6-14% YoY, with a GM of 47% ± 1.5%, beating consensuses. 
• Smartphone sales are +59% from 4Q24, increasing 14% QoQ but decreasing 1% YoY, attributed to the successful launch of the D9400, with healthy demand for smartphones and subsidy stimulation from China.
• GAI will continue to drive innovative changes in the industry, while MediaTek is evaluating the phenomenon’s effect on resource allocation. 

• Bank Mandiri saw a slower finish to the year despite strong loan growth and solid CASA growth, as expenses rose in 4Q2024 and slower recoveries impacted non-interest income.  
• Strong loan growth was driven by corporate and commercial lending with diverse sector exposure, as it continues to exploit wholesale relationships rather than increase risk, supported by CASA growth.
• The recent correction looks overdone given the outlook for 2024 looks positive, with loans expected to follow deposit growth in 2025, with credit costs under control. Valuations below historic levels.

• Amazon faced ~900 Mn FX headwind in 4Q’24 which was ~700 mn higher than assumed.
• For the third consecutive quarters, AWS grew 19% YoY. Ads grew by +18% YoY, and revenues in other segments increased by mostly High Single Digit (HSD) rate.
• I’ll discuss more about AWS later, but let’s talk more about Amazon ex-AWS first.

• ExxonMobil reported earnings of $34 billion for the year, marking its third-highest result over the past decade, despite facing softer market conditions.
• This financial outcome underscores ExxonMobil’s robust operational efficiency and strategic agility.
• The five-year average return on capital employed (ROCE) stands at an industry leading 11%.

• KKR and Gaw are in talks for a $660M sale of Hyatt Regency Tokyo to Japan Hotel REIT, potentially reshaping the hospitality market.
• Singapore worker housing rents have surged by 10.8% in the second half of 2024, attributed to a significant increase in labor influx.
• Despite falling rent trends in APAC office markets, Australia and Japan have shown resistance, according to Knight Frank’s report.

• Palantir Technologies Inc. saw a significant surge in its stock price following a robust earnings report that surpassed analyst expectations.
• The company projected full-year 2025 revenue of approximately $3.75 billion, exceeding the $3.54 billion consensus estimate.
• Adjusted operating income is anticipated to be around $1.56 billion, highlighting Palantir’s continued momentum in artificial intelligence and government contracts.

• Occidental’s Q4 revenue and EPS are expected to drop 2.6% and 9.5% YoY, with full-year 2024 declines of 3.8% and 10%, respectively.
• Occidental’s average realised worldwide oil price dropped by 7.4% QoQ and 11.6% YoY to USD 69.73/b. Conversely, its average realised global NGL price rose by 6.5% QoQ and 4.2% YoY.
• The STRATOS plant, one of the largest DAC projects globally, will begin operations by mid-2025. It is expected to capture up to 500,000 tonnes of carbon dioxide annually.

• Yesterday, Yamaha Corp (7951 JP) announced Q3 earnings (results, presentation, metrics), a change in full-year guidance (revs unch’d, OP -10.8%, NP -25%), and a large buyback. 
• 9M Revenue up yoy but China sales slower OP up yoy (audio business, SG&A cuts), but FY revised lower due to restructuring (impairment, retirement expenses). Looks worse than it is.
• The buyback is interesting, and large. And investors should be aware of the modalities. 

• Jack Henry is a best in class operator within the vertical market software space
• They sell operating system software for small and mid-sized banks
• Jack Henry focuses on organic growth and their core product

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• ASML produces lithography systems for printing electronic circuits on chips
• ASML is the only company in the world producing EUV lithography printers
• EUV lithography involves generating light with a very small wavelength and requires complex technology and optics, with challenges in light generation and guiding the light to print circuits on wafers

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• Cautious 2025 outlook: SEAJ and other Japanese SPE firms have toned down 2025 expectations. TEL mentions a flat total end-demand.
• In 2024, spending was concentrated in leading edge (AI) and China. In 2025, Intel and Samsung Logic Capex declines, China should decline. The bright spots are TSMC and HBM Capex.
• Consensus expectations are low, but rightly so. The stock is at average PEx. Neutral territory.

• Received US FDA Approval for both Tarapur & Baddi Facility & moving to regulated market.
• Increase in revenues & margins with the US FDA approvals & Many products are backward integration or import substitution which is expected to boost demand
• US entry to allow product & bottomline expansion and would also focus on increasing market presence from semi-regulated markets along with regulated markets

• The upcoming 1Q25 could be relatively flat or slightly higher than 4Q24, which represents a better start than usual due to seasonal effects.  
• The Dimistry 8400/9400 models have been successful sellers, and a new Dimistry 9500 is expected to be launched after the first half of 2025. (link)
• The China electronic household subsidy program, including smartphone, has resulted in over 8 million sales in shipments within 4 days on Jan 25.

• Top Chinese cloud platforms are supporting DeepSeek as AI changes the landscape of cloud intelligence.
• Meta and Google are pushing forward with smart glasses development, overcoming obstacles in the Asian supply chain.
• SiPh progress is exceeding TSMC’s expectations, heating up the optical communication CPO market earlier than anticipated.

• Record Margins: Q2 OP surged 82% YoY to ¥7.1b, with Japan profitability up and losses narrowing in Fintech and the US.
• US Breakeven Play: Aggressive cost-cutting led to 12ppt margin improvement; if growth stalls, a sale or exit could boost margins by 200bps.
• Fintech Upside: Losses peaked last year, with 16ppt OPM improvement; breaking even could add 400bps to group margins.

• Pretty good Dec-24 quarter (1Q25), ~10% above expectations. Decent Mar-25 (2Q25) guidance, ~5% above expectations. The stock is down after hours, because?
• FY25, I estimate Mobile revenues up ~10% YoY, Auto ~30%, IoT ~20%. QCOM said that Licensing revenues will be flat. Total revenue growth ~12% YoY, I expect similar for FY26.
• Conclusion: nothing exciting, management reiterates big non-mobile revenue targets by 2029 (US$22bn) but downside from Apple Modem ending in 2027. In the meantime the stock is properly valued.

• Ramkrishna Forgings (RMKF IN) reported Q3 FY25 revenue growth of 8% and volume up 13.9%, alongside new capacity expansions and Rs. 697 crore in new orders.
• These robust results and strategic capacity boosts underscore RKFL’s resilience, positioning it for sustainable growth amid raw material and market headwinds.
• Investors should see the mixed Q3 performance as a sign of proactive investments that could translate into significant long-term value.

• TSMC Expands 2nm & Advanced Packaging in Taiwan, Advances 1nm “GIGAFAB” in the South — Despite U.S. Tariff Risks
• Japan’s Semiconductor Gamble: Can Rapidus Challenge TSMC? — Maintain Structural Long for TSMC.
• Apple Supply Chain Monitor — Why Zhen Ding and Kinsus Interconnect Could Be in a Favorable Position Relative to Apple’s AI Trajectory

• Rapidus Corporation — The Japan-based semiconductor startup has emerged as a key part of the country’s ambition to reclaim a foothold in the advanced semiconductor manufacturing space.
• How Rapidus Compares to TSMC — Rapidus’s challenge is not only in catching up with TSMC’s leading-edge process nodes but also in ensuring manufacturing maturity and cost competitiveness.
• Maintain Structural Long rating for TSMC — Accumulate on market weakness. TSMC is partially insulated from U.S. tariff risks thanks to its position producing the most advanced chips.

• Q424 revenues of $7.7. billion, up 12% QoQ, up 27% YoY and $200 million above the guided midpoint. This marked the company’s highest ever quarterly revenue
• AMD forecasted Q125 revenues of $7.1 billion at the midpoint, up 30% YoY but down ~7% sequentially. This caused the share price to decline by ~9% in after hours trading
• H125 is a reset period for AMD’s Data Center GPU roadmap. ROCm simply isn’t mature enough to compete effectively with NVIDIA. AMD must do better, and I believe they will.

• Trane Technologies reported robust financial results for the fourth quarter of 2024, reflecting strong execution across its business segments and demonstrating the benefits of its purpose-driven strategy focused on innovation and sustainability.
• The company achieved 10% organic revenue growth, expanded adjusted EBITDA margins by 110 basis points, and increased adjusted earnings per share (EPS) by 20%.
• For the full year, Trane Technologies reported 12% organic revenue growth and 24% adjusted EPS growth, affirming its ability to outperform peer groups in these critical financial metrics.

• 4Q24: just inline, flattish AI GPU revenue, recovery in Server and PC. Not impressive but ok. What matters is: accelerating GPU launch in 2025, the open-source software platform gains traction.
• Please take this literally, from CEO: Data Center AI (revenue will increase) from US$5bn in 2024 to tens of billions of dollars of annual revenue over the coming years.
• Stock has corrected by -32% since Oct-24. It’s trading at -1 standard deviation on forward EPS or 23x 2025EPS. Time to Buy.

• TSMC: +20.8% Premium; Wait for More Extreme Level vs. Relative Range; Comments from Morris Chang on Premium
• ASE: +0.5% Premium; Good Level to Go Long the Premium
• ChipMOS: 1.9% Premium; Can Consider Shorting Premium at Current Level

• Now that Lee Jae-Yong’s legal problems appear to have finally have been resolved, it could positively impact Samsung C&T, Samsung Electronics, and Samsung Biologics.
• Given the fact that Samsung Electronics and Samsung Biologics are the two most important drivers of Samsung C&T, this could positively benefit the valuation of Samsung C&T. 
• Our NAV analysis of Samsung C&T suggests NAV of 38.7 trillion won or NAV per share of 217,747 won which is 84% higher from current levels.

• Since the start of 2025, Arras has released two batches of drill results from its exploration activities in Kazakhstan. Early results look very promising and the stock has reacted accordingly.
• 2025 is going to be a very busy year of newsflow for Arras with a lot of optionality to drive a further re-rating.
• Arras remains a high risk/reward junior exploration company with a market cap of only 33M USD. Arras is targeting both copper and gold.

• Alphabet maintained their low double digit revenue growth. For the 10th consecutive quarters, Google network’s revenue went down.
• Cloud revenue growth decelerated from 35.0% YoY in 3Q’24 to 30.1% in 4Q’24.
• I will note, however, that Google usually discloses every quarter that GCP grew at higher rate than overall Cloud, but in this call, they mentioned “GCP grew at a rate that was much higher than cloud overall”. 

• Predictive Discovery receives a strategic investment of $69 million from Lundeen and Zejin, leading to a 13% increase in stock price
• The funds will be used for advancing the DFS at the Bankhan gold project in Guinea and other development activities
• Predictive’s Bankan project has a 5.4 million ounce resource and a 3 million ounce reserve, with an average production profile of 269,000 ounces per annum over 12 years at an AISC of $1,100 per ounce

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• Press reports suggest that a merger between GoTo Gojek Tokopedia and Grab is back on the table, which is ironic given the progress of both companies towards profitability. 
• Any merger may encounter anti-trust issues in Indonesia, with some fallout for drivers and potentially merchants, which may encounter resistance from the government and even potential demonstrations but not insurmountable.
• Grab should book a net profit in 2025 plus higher growth, as its barbell strategy gains traction, but a GoTo merger could move the dial towards much higher profitability.

• Switch slowdown: Nintendo’s Q3 revenue and profit fell sharply as the ageing console nears the end of its cycle, missing hardware sales expectations.
• Guidance cut: Full-year revenue and profit forecasts were lowered, but investors remain focused on the upcoming Switch 2 launch.
• Muted upside: Switch 2 is an incremental upgrade, unlikely to expand the market significantly or boost Nintendo’s valuation beyond its current fair value of ¥9,000 per share.

• LVC increased its holding of Henlius by 1,110,900 shares on January 23, reflecting its high recognition of the Company and optimism on its prospects, despite the biosimilar VBP headwinds.
• Even with concerns, LVC still repeatedly invested in Henlius at a valuation far higher than its actual value, offering support with real money during pre-IPO stage.
• Lin Lijun’s dissenting vote was a deliberate decision. We are interested to see Lin’s next move. Lin should have a very clear understanding of the true value of Henlius.

• Religare Enterprises (RELG IN)’s saga intensifies as CEO Rashmi Saluja sues her own company amid takeover bids by the Burman family, amid insider trading allegations.
• The battle, initially a takeover bid, has evolved into an ED probe, halting shareholder meetings and raising serious governance concerns.
• Everything lies in the hands of Religare’s shareholder since to gain the helm again Rashmi needs more than 50% votes in the upcoming meeting on 7-Feb.

• Multi Bintang Indonesia (MLBI IJ)  saw significant inflection in Q3 FY24, with revenue and net profit growth of 21.9% and 35%, respectively. Strong growth is anticipated in Q4’s high season.
• Our confidence in MLBI’s Q4 stems from Bali’s impressive tourism statistics, registering a 17% YoY increase in Q3 FY24 and 19% YoY in Q4 FY24 (up to November).
• With a 10.4x FY24e PE valuation, over 9% dividend yield, and historical ROCEs surpassing 80%, we believe the share price is at a turning point.

• Excel Industries (EXL IN) faced severe financial declines in FY24 but showed early Q2 FY25 improvement through higher export revenues and better margins amid strategic capacity expansion and new partnerships.
• Its diversified product portfolio, especially DETC, and proactive R&D investments are key to overcoming volatility, making Excel Industries pivotal in sustaining India’s chemical innovation despite market headwinds.
• Investors should note that despite recent downturns, targeted expansion and strategic partnerships could reverse performance trends, revealing potential long-term value if operational challenges are resolved.

• IWG is the largest co working flex office company in the world, with brands like Regus, Spaces, HQ signature and The Lights
• The company has been profitable and has grown through a capital light strategy of managed and franchise models
• The stock is currently undervalued, with potential for significant growth in earnings and free cash flow from the managed business in the upcoming years

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• Revenue increased 31.1% YoY to JPY2.5bn, with HENNGE One revenue at JPY2.3bn and Professional Service at JPY175mn.
• Operating profit rose 37.3% YoY to JPY529mn, with a margin of 21.1% and SG&A expenses at JPY1.6bn.
• Gross profit reached JPY2.1bn, gross margin at 85.5%, and advertising expenses increased 68.8% YoY to JPY157mn.

• Gaw Capital secures $260M investment for Hong Kong CSI Properties, demonstrating confidence in the real estate market.
• CapitaLand Ascott Trust makes significant acquisition with purchase of 2 Japanese hotels worth $140M, expanding their portfolio.
• Hines JV embarks on condo complex development on Delhi’s Birla Mills site, reflecting growing investment interest in India’s real estate sector.

• Market value of stocks close to 2 trillion, including Nvidia at 600 billion
• Author missed opportunity to short Nvidia despite strong case outlined in article
• Concerns about competition, margins, and custom chips impacting Nvidia’s growth potential

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• Stifel is a leading middle market investment bank with a large equity research franchise
• Stifel has won the J.D. Power Award for Employee Advisor satisfaction two years in a row
• The Odd Lots podcast discusses topics like MicroStrategy’s perpetual motion machine and leveraged bitcoin investments

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• Didi Global Inc. is a prominent mobility technology platform offering ride hailing, taxi hailing, and ride sharing services
• The company dominates the market in China and Latin America, especially in Brazil and Mexico
• Didi also has other initiatives including E-bike sharing, energy and vehicle services, intra-city freight, autonomous driving, and financial services.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• After 2 very poor quarters (revenue decline YoY), 2Q25 revenue increase 93% YoY, net income 137%. The painfully high volatility will not go away. 
• But Lasertec maintains its FY25 guidance which means that the blowout 2Q25 does not indicate higher growth
• The expectation bubble should have completely deflated (SiC for EV, Intel, Samsung). The stock is trading at 18x, at the bottom of its trading range and valuations. Attractive.

• We reviewed Lever Style’s (1346 HK)  positive profit alert and project a final dividend of 7-7.5 cents, an increase from 3 cents per share in H1 FY24.
• The overall dividend of 10-10.5 cents indicates a yield over 9%, with positive remarks on new customer additions and increased penetration within the existing customer base.
• Our top sector picks include JNBY Design Ltd (3306 HK) and Pacific Textiles (1382 HK), with a favorable mention of Nameson Holdings (1982 HK)  due to its attractive dividend yield.

• Pulmuone has benefited from improved sales and profitability of its US subsidiary, driven by higher demand for Korean foods and plant based/non-meat based foods such as tofu.
• The company has nearly 70% market share in the tofu segment in the US. It has gained meaningful economies of scale of its tofu product in the United States. 
• Pulmuone currently has a market cap of 390 billion won. Using the consensus net profit estimate of 37.6 billion won, this would suggest a P/E of 10.3x.

• India aims to create its own foundational model by 2025, showing its commitment to technological development and innovation.
• DeepSeek’s founder’s journey from stock prodigy to AI disruptor highlights the potential for growth and success in the tech industry.
• Cadence’s focus on expanding in India’s data center industry shows the increasing importance of this sector in the global economy.

• Celestica’s fourth-quarter 2024 financial performance illustrates a complex landscape with both impressive achievements and areas of strategic caution.
• The company reported strong revenue growth, reaching $2.55 billion, aligning with the high end of its guidance.
• Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) surpassed expectations, recording $1.11, reflecting the company’s robust operational capabilities.

• Sumitomo Pharma (4506 JP) reported 25% YoY revenue growth during 9MFY25, driven by North America.
• Restructuring and streamlining efforts help curb expenses and post a core operating profit of ¥21B during 9MFY25 compared to an operating loss of ¥96B in same period last year.
• Sumitomo is now expecting FY25 revenue to be ¥381B, up by ¥43B from the previous forecast and a core net profit of ¥16B.

• Daiichi Sankyo (4568 JP) reported mixed Q3FY25 result, with revenue increasing 8% YoY to ¥484.8M and net profit decreasing 7% YoY to ¥61.9M. Enhertu revenue increased 39% YoY to ¥143B.
• The company has raised FY25 net profit guidance by 7% to ¥240B (up 20% YoY), to reflect an increase in financial income due to an improvement in foreign exchange gains.
• As Daiichi Sankyo enters the final year of its current five-year business plan, the company has appointed Hiroyuki Okuzawa as Chief Executive Officer effective April 1, 2025.

• Lixil increased operating profit by 15.7% YoY, to ¥20.6bn, compared to consensus estimates for an 18% decline. The stock trades at 80% of book value.
• TEPCO earned ¥112bn compared to a consensus forecast of a ¥3bn loss. It trades at 35% of book value.
• Lasertec increased EBIT by 122% to ¥47.7bn compared to consensus estimates for ¥27bn, and the stock trading at the lowest multiples relative to Topix in seven years.  

• Fosun Tourism (1992 HK)‘s profit warning suggested a significant deterioration in profitability in 2H24, fading any near-term recovery hope. 
• With losses enlarged 89-126% YoY in 2H24, it is more difficult to return to its peak and IPO share prices. This makes the buyback proposal even more attractive.
• We take the inability to introduce the Potential Share Alternative Option as a lack of confidence by the existing shareholders in Fosun Tourism’s medium-term outlook.

• Big Dec-24 due to China. Mar-25 will be weaker. FY26 growth will come only from TSMC and HBM. After a strong FY25 (~30% growth), FY26 should see growth at 10-15%.
• Accounting concerns  should be over after the publication of the audit report on Jan 14 2025. The stock has started appreciating since early Jan 2025.
• Valuations are low. The stock is trading at ~11x FY26 EPS. A muted Mar-25 could limit the upside short-term, let’s wait.

• HK Alpha Portfolio returned -1.29% in December and outperformed the benchmark by 0.34%. The portfolio has outperformed Hong Kong indexes by 7.93% to 9.64% since its inception on 10/01/24. 
• About 75% of the portfolio’s excess returns have been from alpha generation. The portfolio had no exposure to Real Estate, Energy or Materials.
  
• At month-end we sold China Cinda Asset Management (1359 HK) , Citic Ltd (267 HK) , China Galaxy Securities (H) (6881 HK) and GDS Holdings (9698 HK) . 

• RaaS has published an update report on NT-focused gas explorer/producer Empire Energy Group (ASX:EEG) following its recent quarterly report and operational update.
• The company is poised to commence the last phases of activity on the path to project startup.
• Having successfully cased and cemented the Carpentaria-5H (C-5H) well above expectation on time and horizontal section, securing debt financing and NT environmental approvals, we await the commencement of testing post the wet season and the granting of the ‘Beneficial Use of Test Gas’ agreement, with the traditional owners, which formally approves commercial gas sales.

• Sales reached JPY178.0bn, a 7.0% YoY increase, with directly managed stores contributing 98.9% of total sales.
• Operating profit rose 16.9% YoY to JPY13.2bn, while net income increased 18.3% YoY to JPY8.9bn.
• The company opened 84 directly managed stores and closed 49, totaling 2,056 stores by end-Q3 FY03/25.

• Yellow Hat’s cumulative Q3 FY03/25 sales increased 4.9% YoY to JPY119.1bn, with operating profit up 9.6% YoY.
• The medium-term plan targets FY03/28 revenue of JPY180.0bn, operating profit of JPY16.8bn, and net income of JPY11.8bn.
• Planned investment of JPY33.0bn from FY03/26 to FY03/28 includes JPY28.0bn in capex and JPY5.0bn for M&A.