Equity Bottom-Up

• Alibaba sells 100% equities in Intime Department Store to Youngor.
• Meituan plans to shorten delivery workers’ work hours due to sudden death cases.
• Mixue, the lowest price fresh drink provider, began to raise its prices.

• Micron’s Latest Outlook Disappoints & Shares Fall; Decoupling Trade Between SK Hynix & Nanya Tech Has Worked However
• Smartphone AI Insights — On-Device Local Search & Context-Aware Interfaces Emerging as Key Local AI Needs
• Conclusion — Consider Swapping In MICRON as the Long Side of the Memory Decoupling Trade

• Insiders are selling more than buying, especially in the technology sector
• Spin-offs like Western Digital and Lionsgate Studios are of interest to insiders
• Public Brook is a hotel company where insiders are buying stock and preferred shares, signaling potential value unlocking opportunities. Insiders are expected to start returning capital to shareholders, but the question remains if they will follow through.

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• Isetan-Mitsukoshi has gone from being the most cautious forecaster among the big department store retailers to the most optimistic.
• This is largely on the back of previously unimaginable sales records at its main stores, especially Isetan Shinjuku.
• All of which is bringing in piles of profit, with projections of exceeding its previous average profit by four times.

• Rapidus vs. TSMC: Can Japan’s Newcomer Compete in the 2nm Race?
• Memory Monitor: The Emerging Mass-Market Edge AI Need for Mobiles; Long Micron Vs. Short Nanya Tech 
• Hon Hai Pauses Nissan Pursuit Amid Honda Talks — A Japanese Savior for Nissan is Likely But This Confirms Hon Hai’s EV Ambitions Remain High

• TSMC’s new wafer manufacturing technology is changing the advanced packaging industry, causing a forecasted slump in general-purpose memory for Samsung and SK Hynix.
• Micron is leading the way in HBM4 development, aiming for mass production by 2026, while India’s semiconductor growth is highlighted by Marvell ahead of VLSI conference.
• China’s chip crackdown escalates as global semiconductor landscape evolves, with Tesla Shanghai factory head resigning and Xiaomi denying poaching rumors. Dixon partners with Vivo to boost local production in India.

• TSMC: +25.4% Premium; At Historical Highs, Good Level to Short the Spread
• UMC: +2.1% Premium; Upper Level of Historical Range, Short Level
• ASE: +5.4% Premium; Near-Term High However Likely Best to Wait for Higher Levels

• Top Glove Corp (TOPG MK) achieved 80% YoY revenue growth in 1QFY25 and returned to profitability with a net profit of RM5M.
• With robust demand outlook, Top Glove expects the ASP to further strengthen. The company aims to recover its EBITDA margin to pre-pandemic levels of 15% by FY26 from 10% now.
• Import alert and expected tariff increase on Chinese manufacturers, may help shift the focus from China to Malaysia, as the preferred sourcing destination, thereby helping Top Glove.

• Information Services Corporation (TSX:ISV) is a technology services provider in Canada, founded in 2000 to manage registries in Saskatchewan
• Strong Q2 results reported, market capitalization of CAD 530 million
• Ambitious plan for expansion, operates in a high-quality “monopoly” business with Registry Operations accounting for 70% of EBITDA

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• MLKN posted 2QFY25 adjusted EPS of $0.55 on better-than- expected revenue (+$15 million versus our estimate), with Americas Contract and Global Retail both showing strength despite industry headwinds, while the normally ‘lumpier’ International Contract was affected by uneven demand across regions.
• We reviewed the quarterly results in our summary note.
• In the critical Americas Contract segment, leading indicators continue to suggest an improving demand picture.

• Solar power will be cheaper than fossil fuels and EVs will be cheaper than ICE vehicles, but you can’t make either without the parts that Rohme excels in. 
• Tesla is up 201% on speculation about its FSD, but Taiyo Yuden, which makes critical parts in FSD systems is down systems, is down 43%.
• Kose is down 49%, largely on China woes, but China is no longer big enough to be a problem, and Japan and other regions growth should start to take over. 

• DFI Retail Group Holdings (DFI SP), a leading retail player in Asia, is navigating sector headwinds through strategic pivots and cost cuts to drive superior margins and returns.
• After hitting a 10-year low in early August, DFI Retail’s stock rebounded, driven by strong 1H2024 earnings that reflected the impact of management’s initiatives.
• With an attractive dividend yield, strong cash flow, and a positive earnings growth outlook, DFI Retail offers a low-risk, high-return opportunity for investors in 2025.

• Vesync (2148 HK)‘s suspension may suggest privatisation by the Yang family (68.8% stake). With US$192m public float and US$216m net cash, out-of-pocket cash needed is limited. 
• 1H24 is decent with a 37.5% earnings growth and 3.3pp margin expansion. The consensus forecast of 4.8% growth in 2H24 is conservative, providing a good opportunity for privatisation.
• Benchmarking the take-out price to the 3-year average P/B will mean a 33% upside while the sector’s average PER multiple implies ~70% higher than the pre-suspension price.

• RaaS interviewed Ricegrowers Group CFO Dimitri Courtelis following the company’s H1 FY25 results.
• This is a full transcript of the interview.

• RaaS has published an update on and interview with FMCG agri-group Ricegrowers which trades as SunRice (ASX:SGLLV) following the release of its interim report last week in which it delivered RaaS-adjusted EBITDA of $67.9m (+10%) in line with our forecasts and NPAT of $31.2m (+4%), below our forecasts due to a higher than expected tax rate (28% vs our 22%).Branded sales represent ~70% of total SGLLV sales, with the benefits of new brands, brand extensions and increased ranging evident in the H1 FY25 result.
• Across Rice Food, Riviana and CopRice EBITDA growth far outpaced revenue growth, with EBITDA margins for Rice Food +400bps, +330bps for CopRice and +140bps for Riviana.
• SGLLV added SavourLife and Simply Delish to the portfolio over the half and can be expected to add and extend further brands in pursuit of its 2030 revenue target of $3.0b.

• RaaS has published a flash comment on NT-focused gas explorer/producer Empire Energy Group (ASX:EEG) following the recently released findings of the Independent Expert Scientific Committee (IESC) on unconventional gas in the Beetaloo which has assessed the potential environmental impact and risk on water resources to be ‘minor’ if appropriate mitigation strategies are implemented.
• The article published on the NT News website, also references comments from the Federal Department of Climate Change, Energy, Environment and Water (DCEEW) which concluded that exploration work (to date) did not meet the legal threshold of being a matter of national environmental significance to be assessed under national environmental law.
• In our view, these findings from both assessments are positive for operators with respect to current gas development plans and potential future phases of gas expansion.

• Volume growth & price declines both moderated in November vs preceding months
• We believe most express companies should be experiencing margin expansion in Q424
• We finish with a review 2024’s winners and losers in China’s ecomm fulfillment space

• As HCG’s scale is growing and as its emerging centers are maturing, profitability is improving. Adjusted EBITDA crossed INR 100cr mark for the first time ever.
• EBITDA grew by 21% YoY in Q2FY25 with EBITDA margin improving to 18.8% vs 17.8% YoY. Q2FY25 revenue also grew healthy at 14% YoY to reach INR 550cr+.
• HCG also announced acquisition of a cancer hospital in Vizag that is margin accretive. Including this acquisition, EBITDA margin is 19% and proforma revenue growth is 20% YoY.

• Regardless of the circumstances, Intel Corp (INTC US) must select a new CEO and hope that a new strategy will turn the situation around.  
• A possible decision to spin off Altera could signal the possibility of Intel further breaking into several parts.
• For the near term, Intel must overcome financial and management challenges, and laying off 1/10 of its workforce is a short-term and necessary step.  

• November’s pricing weakness vs Summer peak is among the sharpest declines in 10+ years
• A work stoppage at some US ports could hit in January, but impact likely muted
• Share prices under pressure as investors begin pricing in softer conditions in 2025

• 2025 could be thorny for Asian equities. The main themes – “Trump turmoil”, a slower Fed and a “stronger for longer” Dollar and continued AI boom – have mixed implications.
• China’s policy articulation to support consumption departing from earlier supply-side measures, would be an important investment driver. India, though expensive, has a few “unloved” sectors that investors should focus on.
• Based on our five investment themes, we identify five high quality liquid top picks in Asia – two listed in Hong Kong and one each in Taiwan, India and Korea. 

• Realize Volatility is a cause, not an effect, and can lead to inaction
• Options on iBit, the Bitcoin ETF, are becoming a critical industry risk management tool
• IBIT options have seen stunning volumes and substantial open interest, leading to price discovery and a growing liquidity ecosystem

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• DAM Capital (930970Z IN) is the fastest growing merchant banker in last 3 years between 2022-24. 
• DAM Capital is pure-play merchant banker and institutional equity business, delivering high growth and margins compared to its peers. 
• Since 2019, DAM completed  27 IPOs, 16 QIPs, 6 OFS, 6 Preferential issues, 4 rights issues, 8 buybacks, 4 open offers, and 1 REIT IPO.

• The automotive world is abuzz with speculation following reports that Honda Motor Co. and Nissan Motor Co. are exploring a potential merger.
• This development comes amid mounting industry pressures, including surging competition from Chinese electric vehicle (EV) makers and the relentless expansion of Tesla.
• The possibility of a Honda-Nissan tie-up has sparked market reactions, with Nissan’s shares skyrocketing while Honda’s stock faced a decline.

MoneyHero’s Q324 results show revenues up 6% y-o-y (9M24 +18%) and a smaller adjusted EBITDA loss, as expected. The important element of the narrative, though, is the emphasis on driving revenues in higher-margin product areas and increasing operating efficiency within the business. Group CFO Hao Qian has resigned to return to China, with the group FD, Danny Leung, stepping up on an interim basis. The market opportunity remains substantial, and with customer data now on a unified platform, MoneyHero is well placed to deliver improved outcomes for both providers and end consumers. Our forecasts are updated to show more moderate top-line growth through FY26e, generating stronger margins.

• Honeywell International has recently become the center of investor attention following mounting pressure from activist investor Elliott Investment Management.
• With a massive $5 billion stake, Elliott has called for the separation of Honeywell’s aerospace business, pushing the industrial giant toward a portfolio realignment.
• Honeywell’s board announced that it is actively considering a potential aerospace spin-off, signaling a possible strategic transformation.

• Microsoft’s aggressive acquisition of nearly half a million Nvidia AI chips underscore the tech giant’s all-in commitment to artificial intelligence (AI).
• As AI reshapes industries, Microsoft has found itself playing catch-up against Google, Amazon, and Meta, all of whom have already developed custom AI chips.
• By investing heavily in Nvidia’s cutting-edge Hopper GPUs, Microsoft has managed to build out a formidable AI infrastructure but at a significant cost.

• MIRA Pharmaceuticals(MIRA) Company Sponsored Research Report

• Unum Group has reported its third-quarter 2024 financial performance, accentuating a strong overall operational landscape with both prospects and challenges.
• On the positive side, adjusted earnings per share (EPS) were reported at $2.13, contributing to over $1 billion in statutory earnings year-to-date.
• This performance aligns with Unum Group’s objective of achieving EPS growth of 10% to 15% for the full year, surpassing initial estimates.

OPAP enjoys a leading and growing position in the Greek and Cypriot gaming markets. The majority of its revenue, from land-based activities, is supported by exclusive prepaid licences. To complement these activities, OPAP has developed a strong presence in the regulated online markets, where, by definition, there is greater competition. Management’s strategy is to grow its customer interactions in both the online and offline worlds, through a combination of rejuvenating its older games and developing new games that appeal to broader demographics, while maintaining its leading corporate and social responsibility credentials.

• Shimano, the Japanese maker of bicycle components and fishing equipment, is in need of a strategic gear change
• A significant -25% decline in FY23 net sales highlights Shimano’s struggles. Revenues dropped a further -11% in the first nine months of 2024
• For investors seeking opportunity at the bottom of the cycle, Shimano presents a compelling case. The stock is trading at 2.3x book value

• Tempus AI reported its third-quarter 2024 financial results, reflecting positive revenue growth but continuing to face profitability challenges.
• Revenue rose by 33%, reaching $180.9 million, driven by growth in the Genomics and Data and Services segments.
• Notably, the Genomics unit growth accelerated to 23.9%, which shows a significant uptick from the previous quarter.

• Nextage is a prominent player in Japan’s fragmented used car dealer market
• The company is looking to grow through suburban superstores, similar to CarMax in the US
• Despite recent scandal involving competitors, Nextage is positioned for growth with potential for expansion in Japan’s used vehicle market

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• Global aviation supply continues to suffer from various supply chain disruptions, driving up lease rates and aircraft values and benefiting aircraft lessors, such as BOC Aviation (BOCA) 
• Although BOCA’s interim results were disappointing due to delayed aircraft deliveries, I expect its momentum to recover in 2025, driven by incoming aircraft and lower interest costs. 
• Stock is trading at 0.9x PB, nearing its historical trough of 0.8x, and offering a decent 5% dividend yield.

• Broadcom Inc.’s financial results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year 2024 reveal a year marked by significant growth driven by strategic acquisitions and advancements in AI technologies.
• The company’s consolidated revenue for the fiscal year reached $51.6 billion, showcasing a 44% year-over-year increase.
• This growth was bolstered not only by strong organic growth of over 9% but also by the strategic acquisition and integration of VMware, which contributed notably to Broadcom’s financial achievements.

• Temu, the Chinese cross-border e-commerce platform owned by PDD Holdings Inc. has suffered its first major setback since launching in 2022 after Vietnam banned its operations citing regulatory non-compliance only two months after it entered the market.
• Temu was ordered by the Ministry of Industry and Trade to stop using the Vietnamese language on its website and app, to notify customers that its e-commerce registration was under review, and to halt all marketing activities in the country, according to a report by Vietnam News Agency on Dec.
• The suspension is Temu’s first since expanding into more than 80 countries around the world.

• Nicola Tangen and Adena Friedman discuss the importance of integrity, transparency, and trust in the financial system
• Nasdaq’s vision is to be the trusted fabric for the world’s financial system, focusing on technology and partnerships
• Adena shares her leadership journey, emphasizing the importance of empowerment, curiosity, and kindness in leadership. She also highlights the lessons learned from Korean kickboxing, pottery, and pickleball in relaxation and personal growth.

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• The H share market continues to be the top performing market in Asia in 2024.  The HSCEI has outperformed all Asian markets on a USD basis.
• China Longyuan Power (916 HK) was rated a BUY at JP Morgan with the company hosting a roadshow to discuss its future growth strategy. 
• China Resources Beverage (2460 HK) was initiated as a BUY at CMB International as the company rapidly expands into the ready-to-drink category with teas and sports drinks.

• Investors are disappointed with Citigroup’s lackluster profitability compared to other large US banks, leading to a low valuation of 0.65x TBV
• Potential for improvement as the company has excess capital and may be able to increase profitability to reach a 10% ROTE in the next two years
• Predictions suggest that if Citigroup reaches its targets, there could be a significant increase in share value, with TBV/share reaching $100 and EPS of $10 by 2026, presenting a compelling investment opportunity for those willing to take a risk on the bank’s future performance.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• Berli Jucker (BJC TB) has started to see better performance from Big C SSSG from 3Q2024, with strong performance in October and November, with an expected strong finish to FY2024. 
• The company continues to focus on expanding its fresh food offering, introducing more private labels into its modern retail segment, and using AI to improve logistics performance. 
• Berli Jucker‘s packaging business is benefitting from raw material lower input costs coupled with active hedging as well as a switch to Aluminium cans from PET. Valuations remain attractive. 

• Synopsys reported a strong performance for its fourth quarter and fiscal year 2024, achieving record revenue and earnings.
• The company crossed the $6 billion revenue mark, with a 15% year over-year increase, driven by its strategic focus on high-growth segments like AI, silicon proliferation, and software-defined systems.
• Synopsys has expanded its bottom line significantly, with EPS growing at a 24% CAGR over the past five years.

• GM announced it will no longer continue to fund its loss making Cruise subsidiary, effectively ending its RoboTaxi ambition. Market reaction? Nothing.
• Microsoft has already announced it will write off its $800 million investment made back in 2021 when Cruise was valued at $30 billion
• Root cause? The tsunami that was triggered by Cruise’s botched response to an accident in October 2023. 

• S&P500 is up 27.7% YTD, outperforming KOSPI which is down 6.9% YTD. Global fund flow continues to pour into top quality US stocks such as Palantir, Tesla, and NVIDIA.
• The top 20 best performing stocks in KOSPI 200 are up on average 106.8% YTD. However, the remaining 180 stocks in KOSPI 200 are down on average 9.2% YTD. 
• There is no large Palantir-like company that deals with AI/data analytics in Korea. However, large cap IT services and telcos in Korea are increasingly expanding their AI/data analytics related business.

• China New Higher Education (2001 HK) has rebounded by 40% from its post-result trough but was still down by 34% from the pre-FY24 result level, despite healthy FY24 results.
• Net profit is healthy, but it is the all-scrip final dividends that dragged on the share price. Concerns are on higher gearing, but at 69.9%, this is still acceptable. 
• The consensus earnings forecast of a 6% growth in FY25 and FY26 seems not excessive. At 2.2x PER and 22% yield for FY25, it seems worthy of the risks.

• Oracle Corporation’s recent earnings for the second quarter of fiscal year 2025 highlighted a strong performance driven by significant growth in their cloud services segment.
• Total revenue reached $14.1 billion, reflecting a 9% increase from the previous year, while non-GAAP earnings per share were reported at $1.47, marking a 10% growth year-over-year.
• Such results slightly surpassed expectations, given the challenging currency fluctuations owing to a strengthening U.S. dollar.

• Bank OZK (OZK US) has more CRE loans to total loans of any US bank at 72% in 3Q24
• Risks of CRE loans are real now and historically, they have high loss rates, in bad times
• The bank is seeing a surge in NPAs , but its credit costs are lagging – make up in 4Q24?

• C3.ai reported its second-quarter fiscal year 2025 results, reflecting a continuation of strong performance with several noteworthy highlights and challenges.
• The company posted total revenue of $94.3 million, representing a 29% year-over-year increase, which exceeded the high end of their revenue guidance.
• Notably, subscription revenue rose by 22% to $81.2 million, making up 86% of total revenue, while professional services revenue was $13.2 million.

• Adobe’s recent earnings release reflects a period of consistent growth and innovation, demonstrating both strengths and challenges.
• For the fiscal year 2024, Adobe achieved record revenue of $21.51 billion, marking an 11% year-over-year increase.
• This growth was fueled by robust performance across its business segments, most notably within its Digital Media and Digital Experience divisions.

• IMMR reported fiscal Q2 (October) after having changed its fiscal year end to April. IMMR changed its fiscal year end after the purchase of approximately 11 million shares of BNED.  
• The quarter was continuation of IMMR reporting increased revenue from fixed rate royalties while per unit royalties declined slightly from the prior year.   
• IMMR reported revenue of $14.1 million compared to our estimate of $10.1 million. We were not expecting a large bump in fixed royalties like IMMR reported in the quarter.  

• XPeng and Nio abandon Nvidia Thor chip over delays, impacting production schedules and development timelines.
• Wistron set to establish new plant in Vietnam in 2025, with potential expansion of current facilities, boosting local economy.
• MSI launches made-in-India notebooks as part of market expansion strategy, tapping into growing demand for tech products in the region.

• DiDi Global (DIDI US) has begun to generate positive EBITDA after several challenging years post-IPO.  With a high degree of operating leverage, the company is poised to grow quickly.
• Didi which maintains a 70% market share in the ride-hailing industry in China is expanding into Tier 3 cities where there is a large untapped opportunity.
• The company has indicated that it wants to list in Hong Kong in 2025 providing a catalyst for share price re-rating next year.

• Bitcoin has reached a new all-time high, surpassing $107,000 and steadily moving toward $110,000, as we predicted in Crypto Moves #55.
• That note remains highly relevant.
• Among the three most notable developments of the past week, MicroStrategy has been “QQQ’d.” Find out what that entails below, along with the other two standout pieces of news and the key charts shaping the market as we head into one of the last weeks of 2024.

• It is difficult for Fosun Tourism (1992 HK) to return to its peak and IPO share prices over the next two years. The buyback proposal represents a good exit opportunity.
• Net profit is unlikely to go back to FY19 level even in FY26F. The derating of the Chinese equities and Fosun Group, as well as its high gearing, are barriers.
• Its PER multiples have already aligned back to the sector average from the extremely depressed level previously. Relative to global names, it is now only at slight discounts.

• In this insight, we review the share price performances of the 18 companies/insights on the Asian Dividend Gems in 2024.
• The 18 stocks in the Asian Dividend Gems published in 2024 are up on average 4.5% from the date of publishing the insight to current price.
• The 18 companies included in the Asian Dividend Gems series this year currently have an average dividend yield of 7.1% and average SmartScore of 4.0 (out of 5.0).

• Edelweiss Financial Services Ltd. is a financial services firm in India with a market cap of $1.2 billion USD
• The company includes the largest private credit and private real assets fund manager in the country
• Management plans to sell a strategic minority stake in the Edelweiss Alts business unit and IPO the Alts unit to distribute shares directly to shareholders, potentially creating value for investors as seen in a previous div-en-specie transaction with Nuvama

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• Rio doubles down on lithium investment in Rincon, with a US $2.5 billion expansion plan
• BHP and Rio have historically had differing views on commodities, with examples in Potash, aluminium, and mineral sands
• Rincon project aims to expand production to 60,000 tonnes per annum, with heavy reliance on DLE technology for extraction and processing

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• ATNI, a telecom company, has been overlooked due to industry setbacks
• Company’s businesses are healthy and poised for growth in revenue and EBITDA in 2025 and beyond
• Expected free cash flow inflection point could lead to increased dividends, stock repurchases, and debt reduction, potentially doubling stock value in two years based on projected 2026 estimates

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• TSM is upbeat on the AI demand and remains confident that the cycle has just begun with long a runway for growth ahead.
• TSM’s primary competitors, Intel and Samsung Electronics, are currently facing challenges within their foundry operations, placing TSM in a favorable position to expand its market share
• The Company anticipates a strong closing for FY:24 and has guided for nearly 35% YOY revenue growth in Q4 2024. We believe the momentum will continue in 2024E-2026E.

• Astronics Corporation is an aerospace components manufacturer specializing in electrical power systems, seat motion systems, and automated test systems.
• The company presents a low-risk investment opportunity at 6x normalized EBITDA, despite challenges in the commercial aerospace sector.
• With a focus on Aerospace and Test Systems products, Astronics remains an attractive investment option in the aerospace and defense industry.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• The disparity between the leading footwear retailers continues to widen.
• ABC Mart is pulling so far ahead that it has the market almost to itself. 
• Chiyoda may have finally turned the corner but G-Foot may need further financial support from Aeon.

• BYD Electronics benefits from two key growth drivers in 2025: a cyclical upswing in its legacy EMS business, and sustained strong growth in auto electronics and AI data cooling devices.
• Earnings momentum is expected to pick up in 4Q, with key segments entering an earning upcycle. Expect bottomline growth to accelerate to 45% in 2025 from 9% in 2024.
• The 13x 2025 PE multiple does not capture BYDE’s transformation from a low-end, cyclical EMS to a leading high-precision manufacturer with a more diverse and balanced set of growth drivers.

• Infrastructure is crucial for the transition to a low carbon economy and the advancement of the economy, requiring urgent repairs to aging infrastructure such as roads, bridges, and airports.
• Private capital plays a key role in investing in infrastructure assets, with a focus on operational improvements and creating value for investors.
• The growing demand for investment in infrastructure, especially in the areas of AI and data centers, presents significant opportunities for private sector funding and operational enhancements.

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• Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOGL) has been consistently undervalued in the market despite strong revenue and earnings growth
• The company’s average forward P/E multiple over the past 15+ years has been just 21.7x, even though it has consistently outperformed the S&P 500
• Currently trading at a discounted valuation of around 17x 2025E EPS, Alphabet has been mispriced for most of its 20-year history

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• The paint industry experienced significant challenges in Q2FY24, with most companies reporting subdued performance.
• Asian Paints reported typical fluctuations in market share of 1-1.5%, while Berger Paints and AkzoNobel both reported gains in their respective market positions.
• Asian Paints’ current market share reduction and increased competitive pressure stem from its size and the slowing macro environment.

• Following on from our previous note, we now identify inexpensive consistent compounders from the small and mid-cap universe in Asia ($1 – $5 bn in market capitalization).
• 28 stocks are on our list – 18 from onshore China, 5 from India, 2 each from Japan and Taiwan and 1 from Hong Kong.
• Industrials, technology, healthcare and financials dominate the list. The list of large and mid-cap compounders shall largely form the backbone of our top stock choices for 2025.

• UiPath reported its financial results for the third quarter of fiscal 2025, surpassing its guidance on all crucial financial metrics.
• The company concluded the quarter with an Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) of $1.607 billion, marking a 17% increase driven by a net new ARR of $56 million.
• Quarterly revenue reached $355 million, and the company achieved a non-GAAP operating income of $50 million.

• A conversation with Indosat (ISAT IJ) managment revealed a stabilisation in the pricing environment following Telkomsel’s recent data price hikes and a more positive outlook for 2025 with market consolidation. 
• 2025 will see the four-player market move to a three-player market which should be positive for data pricing following the XL/FREN merger, with ex-Java expansion also potentially boosting ISAT ARPUs. 
• Indosat‘s move into the AI sphere through its exclusivity in providing NVIDIA Corp‘s GPUs in Indonesia should be an additional growth driver in 2025. Valuation remains appealing.

• Exhibiting a robust growth profile – Solid topline growth and a marked improvement in profitability YoY were the key highlights of Q1 FY7/24 results, demonstrating that INTLOOP’s growth strategy encompassing M&A and business investment is beginning to yield positive outcomes.
• Sales growth of 63.3% YoY was driven primarily by the acquisitive impact of DICS Holdings, and margin enhancement YoY was said to be driven by obtaining high-margin projects, which we believe also stems from raised pricing and improving consultant productivity.
• Management continues to invest in the business primarily via recruitment and building business alliances that should strengthen its network and selling activities.

• Signet Jewelers’ third quarter fiscal 2025 earnings report presents a nuanced outlook on the company’s current standing and its future trajectory.
• The company has demonstrated a mixed performance, showing improvements in certain areas while encountering challenges in others.
• One of the notable positives from the report is Signet’s continued sales momentum, as indicated by the sixth consecutive quarter of sequential same-store sales improvement, despite an overall decline of 0.7% in same store sales.

• Coinbase has managed to weather the crypto winter well by reporting net profits consecutively for 4 quarters.
• Its share price has shot up recently as the whole crypto market became exuberant, thanks to Trump’s re-election, but still below the IPO debut price of $381.
• Our thesis remains the same as when the stock was trading as low as ~$68 in May 2022: Coinbase to become an indispensable platform for Web 3, esp. first-time users.

• Shipping the first water-based cooling systems for servers equipped with Nvidia’s new Blackwell GPUs and building two new motor factories in India.
• Moving beyond excessive dependence on China while restructuring operations to reduce costs. Sales short of 1H guidnce, but operating profit up. 
• Share price down 30% since May and close to its 52-week low. Selling at 17.5x this fiscal year’s EPS guidance, the lowest P/E multiple in a decade. 

• Laser focus, transparency and adoption of a “say do” approach to measuring success are now the order of the day at Intel
• Data Center roadmap not in good shape and if IFS can’t deliver, MJ won’t hesitate to outsource DC products to TSMC alongside existing Client products.
• Gaudi is not a mass market product, Falcon Shores won’t be great either but we will listen, learn, iterate and fail quickly. Watch out NVIDIA !

• TSMC: 22.7% Premium; Good Level to Short the Spread Given Historical Trading Range
• UMC: +0.2% Premium; Middle of Historical Trading Range; Short Interest Rises to New High
• CHT: +0.5% Premium; Major Spike in Short Interest for the Local Taiwan Shares

• A long-short strategy with HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, and State Bank Of India outperformed the NSE Nifty Bank Index by 2.1% from 21 November to present.
• The trade is supported by strong fundamentals, institutional and systemic aspects, and favorable technical factors.
• The strategy is market-neutral with zero correlation to the Nifty Bank Index, enhanced by the yield pick-up from shorting the futures in a contango market.

• Lots of Jobs eliminated by Large Tech firms. Stable Mediatek-Qualcomm market share in Mobile. Foundry Top-10: 5-4-3nm still booming, Mature nodes still lagging.
• Samsung multiple troubles. HBM3e still not qualified, losing iPhone OLED share, US CHIPS Act subsidies gone, Exynos 2500 delayed, Smartphone forecasts lower  
• Intel new CEOs admit they don’t have an AI roadmap – Gaudi 3 failed, next-gen Falcon Shores is a learning opportunity… but 18A process on track (for 2027?).

• Apple’s 2nm Power Move with TSMC — Beating Samsung Yet Again
• Why TSMC’s 2nm Will be Huge — Extending Tech Lead vs. Samsung & Major AI/Power Consumption Benefits for Customers
• The Memory Decoupling Trade is Working — Nanya Tech Underperforms SK Hynix

• We anticipate Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR (TSM US) can achieve a 25% growth in 2025.  
• It is unsurprising for TSMC to dominate in AI, including the assembly and testing segments.  
• Chinese companies are also involved in AI, but there hasn’t been a recent spread as a result of U.S. sanctions.  

• Management of China Tobacco International (HK) (6055 HK) is bullish on earnings in the next two years, with tobacco leaf import and cigarette export being the key drivers.
• Elevated tobacco leaf price is positive to CTI while more re-opening of duty-free shops (currently only 50% of pre-COVID level) will add to revenue momentum.
• A light gearing of just 2% and potentially more parent asset injection are CTI’s strengths. The company plans to maintain a steady uptrend on absolute DPS annually. 

• The decline of new home sales was narrowed in the past ten months.
• New home, rental, and furnishing businesses grew strongly in 3Q24.
• We believe the operating margin will improve in 2025 and 2026.

• NEV retail volume increased by 51% YoY in November and 41% YoY for first eleven months.
• Jiyue Auto, as a car maker subsidiary of Baidu, is dismissing employees.
• Hisense, a home appliance producer, lays off 30,000 employees of its total 110,000.

• Alibaba Group’s September Quarter 2024 results reveal a balance of positive developments and ongoing challenges.
• The company has shown resilience in its core business segments, leveraging an AI-driven strategy to enhance user engagement and operational efficiency.
• Steady growth has been noted in both domestic and international e-commerce segments, with Alibaba International Digital Commerce recording a substantial 29% revenue growth.

• Restaurant Brands International’s (RBI) Q3 2024 earnings show a nuanced performance across its diverse portfolio, which includes brands like Tim Hortons, Burger King, Popeyes, and Firehouse Subs.
• The company navigated a challenging macroeconomic landscape, yet managed to exhibit both stability and strategic growth in certain areas.
• The company reported flat comparable sales growth at 0.3%, alongside a net restaurant growth of 3.8%, culminating in a system-wide sales growth of 3.2%.

• Alphabet Inc., the parent company of Google, has long been a dominant force in the tech world, leveraging its search, cloud, and AI capabilities.
• Recent announcements, including the development of its custom quantum computing chip “Willow,” the launch of Gemini 2.0 AI models, and its partnership with Samsung for mixed-reality headsets, have spurred investor optimism.
• These developments come against the backdrop of an earnings call highlighting impressive revenue growth and expanding AI applications across search, cloud services, and autonomous driving.

• Arcos Dorados Holdings, the world’s largest independent McDonald’s franchisee, reported its third quarter 2024 results showcasing both strengths and challenges.
• The quarter revealed resilience in Arcos Dorados’ business model with strong sales driven by its digital platforms and off-premise channels such as delivery and drive-thru.
• However, the company’s performance also faced hurdles due to economic conditions and currency devaluations.

• Sinopharm will benefit from the strong expected growth in China’s healthcare spend.
• There is scope to increase its distribution which will continue to shield the company from short-term volatility.
• Pricing pressure in drug prices creates opportunity to optimise range and improve profitability.

• DocuSign recently reported its third-quarter fiscal 2025 results, reflecting both promising advancements and ongoing challenges.
• The company delivered an 8% year-over-year growth in revenue, reaching $755 million, driven primarily by improvements in its core business.
• Subscription revenue mirrored this at $735 million.

• Cogent Communications Holdings reported its third-quarter 2024 financial results marked by efforts to optimize costs and streamline operations following the acquisition of Sprint Global Markets.
• A substantial achievement of $165 million in cost savings out of a target of $220 million was noted, attributed to synergies between the merged entities.
• Revenue for the quarter stood at $257.2 million.

• GitLab’s recent quarterly results reveal a complex, yet promising landscape for the company.
• GitLab reported arevenue increase of 31% year-over-year, reaching $196 million for the third quarter of fiscal year 2025.
• The company exceeded profitability guidance with a non-GAAP operating margin of 13.2%, up more than 1,000 basis points from the prior year.

• Foot Locker’s third-quarter financial performance fell short of the company’s expectations, resulting in a more conservative full-year outlook.
• The company reported a modest increase in comparable sales of 2.4% for the quarter, driven primarily by gains in Foot Locker and Kids Foot Locker banners, along with a return to positive territory for Champs Sports and WSS banners.
• However, this progress did not translate as strongly as anticipated into overall sales growth, leading to an adjustment in earnings guidance.

• Dollar General’s third quarter results for fiscal 2024 present a mixed picture of operational resilience amid challenging external conditions and internal initiatives aimed at enhancing financial and operational metrics.
• The company’s performance during the quarter was impacted by several hurricanes in the Southeast, which the management noted as significant in terms of employee deployment and store operations, though the overall sales impact was minimal.
• Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.