Credit

In today’s briefing:

YPF 3Q25: Strong Operating Results as Shale Expansion Reduces Cost Base
Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

YPF 3Q25: Strong Operating Results as Shale Expansion Reduces Cost Base

We maintain our Overweight on YPF, supported by lower lifting costs, mature-field divestments, and a strategic shift toward higher-margin unconventional production and key midstream and export projects.
Improving macro conditions, stronger sovereign credit prospects, and reduced political risk post-elections should support investment, market access, and YPF’s medium-term credit profile.
At current spreads, we find the 2029s and 2031s most attractive, offering compelling yields with limited duration risk and trading wide to peers despite tighter historical averages.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Health and Happiness (H&H), West China Cement, China Hongqiao, Xiaomi Corp
UST yields declined yesterday, led by the front end, following soft data from the ADP’s weekly employment gauge. The UST curve bull steepened, with the yields on the 2Y UST and 10Y UST decreasing 4 bps to 3.57% and 3 bps to 4.11%, respectively. Equities slumped on a sell-off in large tech stocks. The S&P 500 fell for a fourth straight day, dropping 0.8% to 6,617.
Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin (who is a non-voting member this year) said that the labour market may be weaker than the data suggested, adding that he believes “inflation remains somewhat elevated but isn’t likely to increase much”.

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Nov 19

Daily Brief Credit: Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia and more

In today’s briefing:

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
Suzano 3Q25: Results Soft but Broadly In Line with Expectations

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

UST yields were little changed at the close yesterday, as earlier yield declines were pared after Amazon announced a USD 15 bn sixpart notes offering.
The yield on the 2Y UST remained at 3.61%, while the yield on the 10Y UST declined 1 bp to 4.14%.
Equities slumped, ahead of Nvidia Corp’s widely anticipated earnings release tomorrow and amid market concerns over high AI valuations.

Suzano 3Q25: Results Soft but Broadly In Line with Expectations

Suzano’s 3Q25 results were soft but broadly in line, with pulp volumes and prices weighing on margins. Healthier pricing and cost discipline should support gradual margin recovery.
We upgrade the 2031 notes to Overweight after spreads widened 21 bps, creating more attractive relative value versus LatAm BBB peers and Suzano’s own curve.
We expect improving pulp prices, Ribas cost efficiencies, and disciplined capital allocation to strengthen margins, liquidity, and deleveraging capacity over the next 9–12 months.

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Nov 18

Daily Brief Credit: Minerva 3Q25: Stronger Credit as Integration Completes and more

In today’s briefing:

Minerva 3Q25: Stronger Credit as Integration Completes, Margins Under Pressure

Minerva 3Q25: Stronger Credit as Integration Completes, Margins Under Pressure

We maintain our Overweight on Minerva, favoring the 2033s for superior carry-to-duration despite limited upside, supported by strong liquidity, improving leverage, and integration-driven efficiencies
We see room for further spread compression over 9–12 months as operating conditions remain favorable, tariff mitigation continues, and synergies from acquired plants strengthen the credit profile
Relative value remains constructive, with Minerva notes still wide to key benchmarks and peers even after tightening, while rising cattle prices and weak interest coverage remain the main risks

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Nov 15

Daily Brief Credit: Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia and more

In today’s briefing:

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Tata Steel, Rakuten Group
Fed policymakers are uncertain, due to a lack of crucial data caused by the US government shutdown. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said he did not support the central bank’s latest interest-rate cut.
He noted that “the anecdotal evidence and the data we got just implied to me underlying resilience in economic activity, more than I had expected”, and stated that he can make a case to lower or hold rates in December. Mr Kashkari joins other Fed officials who have expressed scepticism over the need for another rate decrease in December, with some arguing for holding rates steady to balance inflation and weaker hiring in the labour market.

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Nov 14

Daily Brief Credit: DTE Energy Reinvents Its Growth Story: Data Centers and more

In today’s briefing:

DTE Energy Reinvents Its Growth Story: Data Centers, Renewables, & Tax Credits Drive the Charge!
First Solar’s Strategic Reset: Tax Credits, Legal Battles, & America’s Next Solar Boom!
Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
MercadoLibre 3Q25: Strong Growth but Profitability Under Pressure

DTE Energy Reinvents Its Growth Story: Data Centers, Renewables, & Tax Credits Drive the Charge!

DTE Energy’s third-quarter 2025 earnings call highlighted both progress and challenges for the company as it navigates its path toward meeting its long-term financial and operational goals.
The company emphasized its strategic shift towards higher-quality utility earnings and laid out a comprehensive plan for the next five years.
Here is a neutral summary of DTE Energy’s earnings results and strategic plans: DTE Energy reported strong financial results for the third quarter of 2025, with operating earnings of $468 million or $2.25 per share.

First Solar’s Strategic Reset: Tax Credits, Legal Battles, & America’s Next Solar Boom!

First Solar’s third quarter 2025 earnings results reveal a mixed picture featuring both strengths and challenges.
On the one hand, the company reported record module sales of 5.3 gigawatts, reaching an earnings per share (EPS) of $4.24, in line with earlier projections.
The firm also increased its gross cash position to $2 billion, bolstered by improved working capital and customer payments.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Biocon Biologics
Overnight, US bond yields fell as traders anticipated fresh data to guide Fed policy. The 10-year Treasury yield slipped amid expectations of a potential rate cut. US equity was flattish.
The October CPI and core CPI numbers will be released today. The prolonged US government shutdown could delay the October and November jobs data to early December, potentially resulting in the weakest nonfarm payrolls since 2020.

MercadoLibre 3Q25: Strong Growth but Profitability Under Pressure

Strong topline growth in 3Q25 was offset by heavier investment intensity across Commerce and Fintech, pressuring margins and reinforcing our view that profitability headwinds will constrain near-term operating performance.
We maintain a Neutral view, with spreads already reflecting MELI’s credit strength and offering limited room for further tightening.
Credit metrics remain broadly healthy, though higher leverage and softer liquidity offset solid cash generation and resilient regional operations.

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Nov 13

Daily Brief Credit: Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia and more

In today’s briefing:

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
Cemex 3Q25: Strong Results and Outlook Support Credit View
Visa’s Fee Shake-Up Could Crush Credit Card Points Programs; What’s The Impact?

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

The US Senate passed a temporary funding measure after a 60-40 vote yesterday, backed by eight centrist Democrats.
The Bill will still require approval from the House and the signature of President Donald Trump. Mr Trump said yesterday that the US was “getting close” to a trade deal with India.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent downplayed concerns over high costs for consumers under the Trump administration, saying that it had inherited elevated price levels from the Biden administration, which he described as the worst in the past 40-50 years.

Cemex 3Q25: Strong Results and Outlook Support Credit View

Cemex delivered strong 3Q25 results with revenue and EBITDA growth, improved margins, and lower leverage, reflecting solid execution under Project Cutting Edge and continued balance sheet strengthening.
Management reaffirmed 2025 guidance, expecting stable profitability, strong free cash flow, and leverage within the 1.5x–2.0x range, supported by cost efficiencies, disciplined capex, and gradual 2026 demand recovery.
Cemex bonds trade rich versus peers, limiting near-term upside; we maintain a Neutral stance, finding best value in the 5.200% 2030s given yield, duration, and credit fundamentals.

Visa’s Fee Shake-Up Could Crush Credit Card Points Programs; What’s The Impact?

Visa and Mastercard have agreed to a landmark settlement that could end a decades-long legal standoff with U.S. merchants over credit card processing fees.
Filed in the Eastern District Court of New York, the settlement would cut interchange fees—typically between 2% and 2.5%—by 0.1 percentage points for five years and allow merchants more freedom in rejecting high-fee rewards cards.
If approved by the court, the settlement would end litigation dating back to 2005, resolving antitrust claims from merchants about the networks’ “honor-all-cards” rules and alleged anti-competitive practices.

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Nov 12

Daily Brief Credit: Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia and more

In today’s briefing:

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
Pemex 3Q25: Extraordinary Sovereign Support Reprices Pemex Tighter

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Fosun International
A group of moderate Senate Democrats have reportedly agreed to support a deal to re-open the US government as well as fund some departments and agencies for the next year, which could end the government shutdown.
Under the agreement, Congress would pass full-year funding for the departments of Agriculture, Veteran Affairs and Congress, while funding other agencies until 30 January 2026.

Pemex 3Q25: Extraordinary Sovereign Support Reprices Pemex Tighter

We maintain Overweight on Pemex, anchored by Mexico’s extraordinary support that effectively shifts refinancing needs to the sovereign balance sheet.
We prefer the 2032s for value in the belly and the 2050s for long-end carry and upside.
Near-Term credit remains well-supported, but structural production and downstream weaknesses limit medium-term tightening potential.

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Nov 08

Daily Brief Credit: Vista 3Q25: Operational Execution and Political Momentum Strengthen Outlook and more

In today’s briefing:

Vista 3Q25: Operational Execution and Political Momentum Strengthen Outlook
Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
MercadoLibre: How Fintech and Credit Expansion Are Enhancing Platform Stickiness!

Vista 3Q25: Operational Execution and Political Momentum Strengthen Outlook

We maintain our Overweight view and prefer the 2033 notes, which offer similar yield to the 2035s with lower duration risk.
Vista’s strong operating performance, growing exports, and lower sovereign risk than YPF support a resilient credit profile.
3Q25 results showed higher production and EBITDA, though liquidity remains tight; continued execution and easing country risk could drive bond outperformance.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Nissan Motor
UST yields declined sharply yesterday, following the release of soft labour market data from alternative sources Challenger and Revelio Labs. The UST curve bull steepened, with the yield on the 2Y and 10Y UST falling 8 bps to 3.56% and 4.08%, respectively.
Equities were sold off for the second time in three days, led by declines in AI-related stocks. The S&P 500 retreated 1.1% to 6,720, while the Nasdaq slumped 1.9% to 23,054.

MercadoLibre: How Fintech and Credit Expansion Are Enhancing Platform Stickiness!

MercadoLibre reported notable financial results for its third quarter of 2025, showcasing a strong continuation of growth trends across its e-commerce and fintech platforms.
The company’s revenue grew by 39% year-on-year, marking the 27th consecutive quarter of growth above 30%.
This consistent growth is attributed to the company’s strategic investments in various areas such as logistics, free shipping, and financial services.

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Nov 07

Daily Brief Credit: Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia and more

In today’s briefing:

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: China Vanke
UST yields rose 5-8 bps across the curve yesterday. This came as the market dialled back Fed rate-cut expectations following the release of strong ADP employment and ISM manufacturing data, as well as after the US Treasury Department said it may raise treasury issuances in future.
The yield on the 2Y UST was up 5 bps at 3.63%, while the yield on the 10Y jumped 7 bps to 4.16%. Equities partially recovered from Tuesday’s slump, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq increasing 0.4% and 0.6%, respectively.

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Nov 06

Daily Brief Credit: Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia and more

In today’s briefing:

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
New World Development – Event Flash – Exchange Offers For All USD Perps And Bonds – Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Adani Energy Solutions, Adani Ports, Bharti Airtel
UST yields declined c. 3 bps across the curve yesterday as treasuries advanced amid a slump in risk assets, with the yield on the 2Y and 10Y UST falling to 3.58% and 4.09%, respectively.
Equities retreated, after several Wall Street chief executives expressed caution about stretched valuations.

New World Development – Event Flash – Exchange Offers For All USD Perps And Bonds – Lucror Analytics