Energy & Materials Sector

• There could be 20 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 27 June.
• If all changes are on expected lines, one-way turnover is estimated at 68.7% and that will result in a round-trip trade of INR 159bn (US$1.87bn).
• Financials are expected to gain 9 index spots and Materials are expected to gain 3 spots. Consumer Discretionary could lose 5 spots and Information Technology could lose 4 spots.

• With the review period complete, we forecast no inclusions to the index in June. There could be up to 3 deletions at the review though.
• Even if there are no constituent changes, capping changes will lead to one-way turnover of 3.9% and a round-trip trade of A$216m.
• Pilbara Minerals is a potential deletion from the S&P/ASX 50 Index with implementation on the same date. Shorts have been covering but short interest is a big percentage of float.

• Eurasia Mining joined AIM in 1999 as a Russia-focused metals and mining company.
• Initially in a JV with Anglo Platinum, the company undertook extensive exploration (gold, gold-copper & PGMs) in the Urals and the Kola Peninsula, which led to the West Kytlim and Monchetundra discoveries that Eurasia went on to acquire.
• The company has successfully advanced battery metals and hydrogen metal mines into production in the Russian Arctic.

• Last 3 Years: NMDC’s PAT grew steadily from Rs3,774 Cr in FY23 to Rs6,693 Cr in FY25 (CAGR ~33%), driven by volume growth and margin expansion.
• Guidance & Plans: Targets 55.4 MT (24% growth) in FY26 and 100 MT by 2030, backed by infra, EC capacity, and pellet expansion.
• Re-Rating Potential: Meeting volume, margin, and execution targets could trigger valuation re-rating from current below-peer multiples.

• US domestic Group I SN 500 price rises to premium to Group II N600 price in May 2025 for first time in more than four years.
• In Middle East, CFR UAE Group I SN 500 price discount to Group II N500 shrinks to narrowest in more than seven months.
• In Asia, FOB Asia Group I SN 500 price strengthens vs Group II N500 in May 2025 to firmest level in six months.

• The WTR Sustainable Index was down 0.5% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (up 1.9%), the Russell 2000 Index (up 1.3%), and the Nasdaq Index (up 2.0%).
• Energy Technology (12.4% of the index) was up 1.1%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (47.9% of the index) was down 0.1%, ClimateTech Mining was up 0.1%, and Advanced Transportation Solutions (21.2% of the index) was down 2.1%.
• Top 10 Performers: BNET, LNZA, ETL, NVVE, REVV, OPAL, WML, HYLN, LOOP, GWTI

• Lithium price recovery is a matter of when, not if. Lithium prices that peaked in 2022 at ~$80/kg on heavy inventory build, driven by supply chain concerns, and subsequently collapsed to $8-10/kg, due to oversupply and the slower uptake of EVs in the US and Europe, could begin to recover, perhaps as early as next year.
• This takes into account that 40% of the industry is operating at a loss in the current price environment and demand for the metal remains robust, with energy storage markets growing 65% Y/Y and EVs growing 29% Y/Y in 1Q25.
• China’s role in mining and dominance in processing.

• Global base oils prices mostly hold firm vs feedstock/competing fuel prices, especially in Europe and Asia.
• Firm price differentials point to strong supply-demand fundamentals, incentivize refiners to supply more volumes for those markets.
• Demand would need to hold firm to absorb any such pick-up in supplies.

• US Group II base oils prices hold in narrow range vs VGO since mid-April 2025.
• Steady price differentials contrast with surge in margins in Q2 2024.
• Steadier margins so far in Q2 2025 coincide with time of year when supply-demand fundamentals are likely to be tighter than usual.

• Asia’s heavy-grade base oils price-premium to Singapore gasoil stays unusually high.
• Firm base oils premium suggests supply remains tight and demand firm, incentivizing refiners to raise output.
• Gap between Group II light and heavy-grade base oils prices widens more even after restart of growing number of base oils units following scheduled maintenance work.

• Brickworks Ltd (BKW AU) entered a combination deed with Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co. Ltd (SOL AU). A newly-capitalised ASX-listed company (TopCo) will merge Brickworks and Soul Patts. 
• The scheme vote is low risk as both Brickworks and Soul Patts shareholders will support the merger, which provides an elegant solution to unwind the cross-shareholdings. 
• Investor support for the transaction seems strong, as evidenced by the A$550 million commitments for TopCo at a stingy NIL discount to the SOL last close price.

• Q1 2025 sees 14% YoY surge in all-season consumer tire sales  
• Truck and bus tire sales volumes in Q1 2025 fall 4% YoY  
•  Imports of PCLT tires grow by 12% YoY in Jan-Feb 2025

• In reviewing Ecolab’s first-quarter 2025 financial performance, the company demonstrated notable strengths alongside areas presenting challenges.
• Ecolab reported double-digit earnings per share (EPS) growth, achieving a 12% increase, even as organic sales climbed by 3%.
• This robust performance highlights the company’s ability to maintain an upward trajectory despite a weakening demand in some end markets.

• YTD our absolute return strategy is up 10,6% The Egg-Price-Bubble Has Busted!
• The price of a dozen eggs in the US has crashed from $8 to $2,5 within five months – highlighting extraordinary volatility in the egg market.
• For context: The rise of egg prices can be primarily contributed to the ongoing avian influenza (HPAI) outbreak that began in 2022.

• Asia’s base oils demand could soften as weakening supply-demand fundamentals incentivize buyers to maintain lower stocks.
• Seasonal slowdown in lube consumption set to coincide with pick-up in supply following restart of growing number of plants after maintenance work.
• Weaker demand in markets like Japan frees up more surplus volumes for export, adding to supply.

• Finolex Industries (FNXP IN) is a leading, vertically integrated Indian PVC manufacturer, the 2nd largest in PVC resin and 3rd in pipes & fittings, with captive production offering cost advantage.
• Margin recovery in FY26 is targeted post headwinds faced by industry via pricing correction, improved product mix, enhanced discount management, and cost efficiency programs. 
• Potential ADD/BIS mandates mid-FY26 may curb Chinese imports, possibly enabling a 5–10% domestic price increase, reshaping the market.

• For the week ending 30/May, U.S. natural gas prices gained 3.4% on the back of forecasts of a hotter-than-expected summer and tightening supplies.
• For the week ending 23/May, the EIA reported that U.S. natural gas inventories rose by 101 Bcf, moderately higher than analyst expectations of a 98 Bcf build.
• Henry Hub OI PCR fell to 0.86 on 30/May compared to 0.89 on 23/May. Call OI decreased by 12.7% WoW, while put OI dropped by 16.1%.

• Ramkrishna Forgings (RMKF IN) (or RKFL) Q4FY25 results received a qualified audit opinion where inventory correction resulted in loss of 6.7% of net-worth. 
• The result also included several alarming highlights including a resurgence of inventory bulk up, questionable recognition of DTA, increasing debt, excess remuneration given to directors, etc.
• What also takes the limelight is the warrants issue where company has issued warrants at ~3x the floor price to the promoters amidst the financial irregularities.

• Deepak Nitrite (DN IN) reported stable FY25 consolidated results despite challenging market conditions, with a notable Q4 sequential recovery in revenue and profitability.
• The company achieved record production volumes through debottlenecking and optimization, maintained strong domestic market share, and initiated a significant shift to renewable energy.  
• Management outlined an INR 8,500 Cr investment in the PC resin project, alongside other integration and expansion plans, signaling confidence in future growth and resilience.

• Enterprise Products Partners LP recently reported its Q1 2025 financial results, highlighting a mix of operational and strategic highlights that can be dissected for investment considerations.
• During the quarter, the company reported an adjusted EBITDA of $2.4 billion, alongside achieving several operational records and transporting significant volumes, such as 13.2 million barrels of oil equivalent per day and 2 million barrels per day of liquid hydrocarbon exports.
• These indicators underscore the company’s robust capacity and the strength of its infrastructure in handling significant volumes.

• Washington H. Soul Pattinson (SOL AU) and Brickworks Ltd (BKW AU) have executed a binding Combination Deed to implement an A$14bn merger that simplifies the company structure by eliminating crossholdings.
• The merger ratio is a good one for Brickworks Ltd (BKW AU) shareholders and the benefits to both sets of shareholders should see the merger approved.
• There will be large passive buying in Washington H. Soul Pattinson (SOL AU) from global and local index trackers and that could lead to short covering.

• The cross-shareholding between Washington H. Soul Pattinson (SOL AU) (Soul Patts) and Brickworks Ltd (BKW AU) was established in 1969 to defend the companies from the corporate raiders.
• Perpetual pursued a case in the Federal Court of Australia, alleging that the cross-shareholding was oppressive to minority shareholders; however the claim was dismissed in 2017.
• Today, via inter-conditional Schemes, the circularity is set to be unwound through a merger. Soul Patts currently owns 43.3% in Brickworks, and Brickworks 26% in Soul Patts. 

• Kakula mining is suspended due to seismic activity; dewatering and repairs are ongoing, with potential resolution by late Q3 2025 as operations gradually stabilize.
• Ivanhoe quadrupled copper output since 2021, maintaining over 55% EBITDA margins through high-grade ore and efficient operations.
• At US$2,000/t copper reserve value, Ivanhoe offers 40%+ upside—past disruptions like Vale and Freeport saw strong rebounds as uncertainty cleared.

• A 4–6 month Kakula disruption could reduce Zijin’s 2025 copper output by 4–8%, cutting EBITDA by ~7–11%.
• Ramp-Ups at Julong and Čukaru Peki can offset ~60–70% of the lost volume and partially protect margins.
• Lithium is expected to grow from 8% to 20% of EBITDA by 2028, driven by 300kt LCE capacity from low-cost brine assets.

• Eagle Materials’ recent earnings release for the fiscal year 2025 highlights various aspects that investors might consider when evaluating the company’s performance and prospects.
• The company reported a record revenue of $2.3 billion and record earnings per share of $13.77, marking its fourth consecutive year of record financial results.
• Despite achieving these records, the results present a mixed picture, depicting both strengths and challenges faced by the company.

• The June 2025 index review results for the CSI All Share Semiconductors Index were announced after market close on Friday 30th May 2025.
• There will be 4 ADDs and 7 DELs for the CSI All Share Semiconductors Index.
• We estimate one-way flows of approximately US$84mn in the June 2025 index rebal event.

• Petrobras, short for Petróleo Brasileiro S.A., recently released its financial results for the first quarter of 2025, set against a challenging backdrop of declining global oil prices.
• A key aspect of the company’s strategy involves adapting to these external pressures while maintaining financial sustainability and shareholder returns.
• From the results, Petrobras posted a net income of $6 billion for the quarter, a significant increase from $4 billion in the previous quarter.

• Valvoline reported its second-quarter 2025 financial results, providing a mixed picture of its current standing and projections.
• The company experienced an 11% increase in system-wide sales to $826 million, driven by a 5.8% same-store sales growth and an expansion of its store network by 8% over the previous year.
• Total net sales saw an increase of 11% to $403 million, adjusted for refranchising impacts.

• Vietnam, Thailand, Cambodia to receive above normal rains  
• Neutral phase of ENSO with La Nina like pattern favoring rains  
•  Weather portends a reasonable production season for Ivory Coast  

• Daido Steel (5471 JP) produced FY24 (March year-end) results full-year OP [IFRS basis] of ¥39,408mil (-6.7% YoY) on sales of ¥574,945mil (-0.6% YoY).
• Due to multiple unknown factors surrounding the business environment such as impact from the US trade tariff policy and volatile FOREX, Daido Steel only released FY25 1H guidance.
• The firm is guiding for 1H OP of ¥12,500mil (-31.5% YoY / -40.9% HoH) on sales of ¥275,000mil (-3.0% YoY / -5.7% HoH).

• MEC’s (4971 JP) FY25 (Dec year-end) Q1 results were largely in line with guidance for OP to rise +3.8% YoY / +19.8% QoQ to ¥1,093mil on sales of ¥4,423mil (+1.6% YoY / -2.8% QoQ).
• Chemical segment sales rose +8.0% YoY / -4.5% QoQ to ¥4,237mil, thanks to 1) a steady increase in demand for chemicals used in high-end packages related to generative AI, and 2) a gradual recovery in demand associated with PCs, smartphones and general servers.
• MEC is guiding for FY25 1H OP of ¥2,250mil (-4.8% YoY) on sales of ¥9,600mil (+8.1% YoY), and full-year OP of ¥5,000mil (+9.6% YoY) on sales of ¥20,000mil (+9.7% YoY).

• What you need to know: • Omai announced assay results from three new drill holes and one hole extension, totalling 2,607m at the Wenot deposit.
• • Highlights include a new discovery at West Wenot: 2.63 g/t Au over 27.5m, including 4.68 g/t over 9.5m.
• 16 holes remain pending at Wenot, part of the expanded 2025 drill program (now >25,000m).

• Pembina Pipeline Corporation’s Q1 2025 financial results reveal a mixed bag of outcomes that provide both opportunities and challenges for investors to consider.
• The company reported a robust adjusted EBITDA of $1.167 billion, marking a 12% increase from the same period last year.
• This growth sets a positive tone for 2025 and reassures investors as Pembina targets the midpoint of its adjusted EBITDA guidance range of $4.2 billion to $4.5 billion.

• Western Midstream Partners, LP reported a mixed financial performance in the first quarter of 2025, reflecting both positive and challenging aspects.
• The company’s adjusted EBITDA stood at $594 million, marking an improvement from the previous quarter, despite a slight decline in the adjusted gross margin primarily due to reduced throughput and a revenue recognition adjustment in the preceding quarter.
• Operating expenses saw a reduction, driven by lower operating and maintenance costs and general and administrative expenses.

• Wheaton Precious Metals reported a strong start to 2025 during their first quarter results, showcasing both operational and financial highlights.
• On the operational side, Wheaton indicated robust performance from several core assets, notably the Salobo mine, which delivered an impressive 71,300 ounces of attributable gold production.
• This represented a 16% increase from the previous year, driven by successful throughput at the Salobo III expansion.

• • 1Q25 production was 4,085 boe/d with no horizontal wells drilled in the period.
• RCE is more mature than CN and while no drilling has taken place at RCE, the decline rate between 4Q24 and 1Q25 was only ~5%.
• • 1Q25 Production was constrained by increased water production preventing the company increasing the speed of the pumps at some of its producing wells.

• • The analysis of the well test result at well 36-2R suggests recoverable resources of 0.84-1.24 mmboe for the 4,000 feet lateral.
• The reservoir characteristics are consistent across the length of the lateral with consistent contribution from the reservoir matrix to the flow rate.
• Extrapolating these results across a longer lateral of 10,000 to 15,000 feet suggests recoverable volumes per well of 9 bcf to 37.5 bcf with a condensate yield of 20-60 bbl/mmcf.

• Daniel Dicker is a seasoned oil trader and expert on energy markets
• Oil has become less important in the macro landscape, with its influence on stocks decreasing over the years
• Oil’s current price fluctuations are driven more by supply and demand factors rather than financial speculation, with no signs of improvement in the near future, despite recent macro developments.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Mammoth Energy (Tusk) has undergone a transformation and is a potentially undervalued small cap stock with limited downside

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• Nippon Steel targets over 100 Mt capacity by 2030, focusing on global growth as Japan’s domestic demand shrinks.
• It plans to acquire U.S. Steel for $14.9B and expand in India via AMNS joint ventures.
• FY24 profit rose 36%, but export reliance, ESG lag, and U.S. deal hurdles pose risks.

• Sarda’s near-term growth will be driven by the full-year contribution from SKS Power, boosting earnings visibility.
• The business mix is shifting structurally from steel to power, which now contributes over 60% of EBIT. Low leverage at <1x EV/EBITDA is a positive.
• The recent weakness in spot power prices is seen as temporary; at 15x FY27 EV/EBITDA, the stock offers strong upside.

• Occidental Petroleum’s recent earnings call for the first quarter of 2025 presented a mixed but detailed view of the company’s operational and financial performance, showcasing both strengths and challenges.
• The management highlighted a solid execution across its diversified portfolio, despite facing some market headwinds and external uncertainties.
• On the positive side, Occidental generated $3 billion in operating cash flow before working capital adjustments, maintaining oil and gas production at just over 1.39 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, which aligns with their guidance.

• Global dry bulk trade is facing its sharpest contraction in nearly a decade, with year-to-date 2025 volumes down 1.5%, according to DBX data.
• This decline is primarily driven by weakening demand from China, rising domestic production in key markets, geopolitical instability, and weather-related disruptions.
• Coal, iron ore, and grain exports have borne the brunt, while bauxite flows remain robust. 

• Genesis is set to wrap up a deal with Focus Minerals for their Laverton project next month.
• The potential payback timeline for the project is unclear due to work needed on the resources and the mill.
• Questions remain about the quality and quantity of the reported 4 million ounce mineral resource at the Laverton project.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• Sailfish Royalty reported Q1 financial results including revenue of $0.6M and adjusted EBITDA of $0.3M.
• Spring Valley continues to advance, most recently receiving an LOI for up to $835M in potential capital from the U.S. Export-Import Bank.
• Mako reported strong drill results from San Albino, potentially expanding its mine life as well as from the El Golfo prospect within the El Jicaro concession, where Sailfish holds a 2% NSR.

• SCZ reported Q4 and 2024 financial results that beat our estimates due to the increased silver price.
• Santacruz reported Q4 revenue of $81.7M (+42% YoY) vs. our estimate of $77.0M and adjusted EBITDA of $23.0M (+300% YoY) beating our estimate of $20.0M.
• Despite rallying 150% YTD, SCZ still only trades at 3.3x 2025E OCF and remains set up for another record year in 2025.

• GreenRoc Strategic Materials Plc (AIM: GROC.L) is unusually well positioned to become a key supplier of high-purity, battery-grade graphite into Western markets increasingly focused on critical material security.
• GROC’s flagship Greenland Amitsoq Graphite Project, has amongst the highest known in-situ graphite grades globally at 20.41% TGC, potential purity is 99.95% (a purity essential to the EV battery value chain looking for lower cost natural graphite vs. synthetic graphite).
• GROC.L’s Thule Black Sands Project (TiO2) aligns with green energy transition trends.

• Taiyo Holdings (4626 JP) has an interesting background, embroiled in a separate activist event via its equity affiliate sponsor Dic Corp (4631 JP), and recently an activist target itself. 
• Today a Bloomberg article said KKR and one other PE fund had made acquisition proposals via TOB. Taiyo confirmed, establishing a Special Committee. A deal is months away, at earliest.
• Shares shot up to limit up, opened briefly, then resumed at limit up. The question here and now is valuation. 

• Dual-Listed MAC Copper (MAC AU/MTAL US), a NSW copper miner, has entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed with Johannesburg-based Harmony Gold Mining (HAR SJ).
• Harmony is offering A$18.93/share (US$12.25/share), a 20.7% premium to last close, or a A$1.6bn/US$1.03bn value. The A$ consideration pivots off the USD/AUD exchange rate. The Offer requires FIRB signing off. 
• The Offer has the unanimous backing of both boards, and also has the backing from shareholders holding 20.1% of shares out. Implementation is October/November. This may need more gruel.

• Taiyo Holdings (4626 JP) shares were up 19.1% based on a Bloomberg report that it received privatisation proposals from KKR and Nippon Sangyo Suishin Kiko. 
• Taiyo confirmed that it has received privatisation offers. The Board would view privatisation as a solution to rid itself of Oasis, which has recently waged an activist campaign. 
• At the last close price of JPY6,230, Oasis would be up 45.9% on its highest price of JPY4,720. My analysis suggests that an offer around JPY7,000 can be justified.

• Nufarm (NUF AU), an agricultural chemical company , is down ~40% since it announced a 39.5% decline in 1H25 profit. The share price is at the lowest level since Covid. 
• Concurrent with this results, Nufarm announced a review of its seed technology ops. Reportedly Advanta, BP – amongst others- are vying for the est. A$900mn business.   
• Elsewhere, it is being reported that key shareholders recommend the Nufarm board explore a full takeover. 

• Korea Value Up index is up 8.2% from 30 September 2024 to 28 May 2025, outperforming KOSPI 200 (up 3.4%) and KOSDAQ 150 (down 7.9%) in the same period. 
• More capital is likely to flow into the Korea Value Up index going forward. The government’s efforts to continue to push the Korea Value Up index is also positive.
• The median market cap of the 27 new additions is 2,310 billion won versus 835 billion won for the 32 deletions. KRX is emphasizing on companies with higher market cap.

• Field latex cross INR 200 (US$2.34) mark, sheet still short of it  
• Over 40% of smallholders complete rainguarding as rains set in  
• Compound rubber import worries farmers, traders  

• Nippon Steel proposes binding governance safeguards, including a U.S. CEO, majority-U.S. board, and a “golden share” for U.S. veto power on strategic decisions.
• USW union opposition remains vocal, but Trump’s political pivot reframes the deal as a domestic partnership, easing labor and nationalist concerns.
• Antitrust risk is low due to limited overlap; CFIUS clearance remains the key regulatory hurdle, with approval possible by late July or early August.

• Deepak Fertilisers & Petro (DFPC IN) reported robust Q4 and full-year FY25 results, crossing INR 10,000 crores in revenue and doubling PAT year-on-year for FY25.
• The strong financial outcomes validate the company’s strategy of aligning with India’s growth story and transitioning from commodities to higher-margin specialty products.
• Improved financial health, reduced net debt, and strategic capex nearing completion position DFPCL for future growth and potentially higher profitability despite near-term segment-specific pressures.

• The WTR Sustainable Index was down 3.1% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (down 2.6%), the Russell 2000 Index (down 3.5%), and the Nasdaq Index (down 2.4%).
• Energy Technology (12.4% of the index) was down 5.3%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (47.7% of the index) was down 2.4%, ClimateTech Mining was down 2.6%, and Advanced Transportation Solutions (21.5% of the index) was down 3.7%.
• Top 10 Performers: LTBR, NHHH, BNET, FTEK, SX, FCEL, VVPR, EGT, DNMR, TMC

• The Chemours Company recently disclosed its financial results for the first quarter and full year 2025.
• The company operates through three primary segments: Titanium Technologies (TT), Thermal & Specialized Solutions (TSS), and Advanced Performance Materials (APM).
• Each segment showed distinctive financial performance reflecting differing market dynamics, regional trade developments, and macroeconomic influences.

• June rebal results are mostly in line, but Korea District Heating’s add and PI Advanced Materials’s drop surprised; Fadu missed KQ150 likely on KRX’s qual screen.
• As for Value-up Index, KRX avoided bold calls like cutting Samsung Electronics or Hanwha Aerospace, favoring stability over surprises—though this may further blur the Value-up Index’s purpose and spark criticism.
• June’s KRX rebalance flow looks muted amid macro noise and politics; expect punchier post-announcement trading but watch for momentum to fade about a week before June 13.

• The June 2025 index review results for the KOSPI Indices were announced after the close on Tuesday 27th May 2024.
• There will be eight ADDs and eight DELs for KOSPI 200 during the June 2025 index rebal event. Some have high impact but round-trip flow is about US$175mm.
• We were expecting six ADDs and six DELs. All of those turned out to be correct but there were some surprises (more ADDs and DELs than we expected). Explained below.

• Global base oils prices mostly hold firm vs feedstock/gasoil prices.
• Firm margins in Asia and Europe point to still-tight supply-demand fundamentals, incentivizing refiners to maintain high output levels.
• Weaker margins in US point to diverging fundamentals compared with other regions.

• In this edition: • NN Group | to present its new medium-term targets at today’s CMD • Shell / SBM Offshore | FPSO Alexandre de Gusmão produces first oil • Fugro | to perform geotechnical surveys at Morgan and Mona offshore wind sites • PostNL | DHL e-Commerce Netherlands buys De Buren

• In April 2025, global coal markets showed a diverging trend between thermal and metallurgical segments.
• Thermal coal remained under pressure amid softening prices, high stockpiles in China and India, and collapsing power demand in Europe, where electricity generation fell sharply due to warm weather, a major blackout in Spain, and ongoing economic stagnation in Germany.
• As a result, API2 and API4 prices slipped further, with month-ahead API2 contracts trading at $93/ton, API4 at $88/ton, and Newcastle coal easing to $95/ton, despite a brief rebound to $99 mid-month.

• US Group II heavy-grade base oils prices stay unusually weak relative to CFR India prices for the time of year.
• Persistent US price-discount to CFR India prices coincides with steady flow of heavy-grade base oils shipments from US to India and especially to Pakistan.
• Arbitrage shipments highlight persistent surplus of heavy-grade base oils in US market.

• Kauntam Papers (KAUN IN) reported stable Q4 FY25 volumes but lower revenue/profit YoY amidst industry headwinds, while progressing on a significant capacity expansion by 50%.
• The company demonstrated margin resilience despite challenging raw material(wood) and import dynamics with expectation of price surge by 6-7% in next 6 months.
• Ongoing capex project of INR 735 crores is on track for completion by Mar-26 where purchase orders worth INR 540 crores already issued, remaining in final stages. 

Since our last note on the company, Alkane Resources has announced its interim results, its Q325 quarterly activities report and, on 28 April, a merger of equals with Canada’s Mandalay Resources Corporation. The first two of these three have led us to increase our FY25 EPS estimate by over 40%, to 7.25c. The third has caused us to entirely re-evaluate the company as a merged entity from 30 June 2025.

• 1Q25 production of 2,135 boe/d was broadly in line with our expectations.
• The company’s gas production was sold a US$0.49/mcf premium to Henry Hub (+13%).
• Field operations are scheduled to commence on the 13‐13 #2 Lower Selma Chalk horizontal well in the next few weeks, and Southern with production due to commence in June.

Notwithstanding press headlines reading ‘Alphamin Resources profit slumps in first quarter on DRC disruptions’, the company’s Q125 results were universally better than in Q124 and consistent with its operational performance (disclosed on 17 April). Despite a temporary halt in operations at the mine on 13 March due to the regional security situation, Alphamin was cash flow positive during the quarter. It turned US$38.5m in net debt into US$3.9m of net cash (excluding US$5.6m in lease liabilities), even though it sold 407 fewer tonnes than it produced, which we estimate cost c US$13.2m in revenue. We have cut our FY25 dividend forecast from C$0.15/share to C$0.12/share, partly reflecting the board’s decision to pass the FY24 final distribution, but also a wish to return to C$0.06/share semi-annual payments as soon as possible. However, this still leaves Alphamin’s shares on a very generous yield. We have trimmed our FY25 EPS forecast by a very modest 0.4% to US$0.09/share (cf 1.85 US cents in Q1).

• Trump’s endorsement removes the political overhang, reigniting momentum for Nippon Steel’s $55/share all-cash offer.
• Implied EV/EBITDA of 8.94x reflects ~$2–3B in strategic synergies over standalone valuation.
• 11.59% annualized return offers attractive arbitrage upside with manageable regulatory and execution risk.

• Linde India plans to double gas capacity to 20,000 TPD by FY27 with ₹32 bn capex, including new ASUs for Tata Steel.
•  FY25 PAT rose 5% despite a 10% revenue dip, driven by margin gains and cost efficiency.
• Trades at over 80× P/E FY27, appears justified by annuity-like cash flows from critical long-term contracts with top steelmakers.

• In the first quarter of 2025, Devon Energy demonstrated a balanced performance through a combination of operational discipline and capital efficiency.
• The quarter saw the company showcasing its ability to adapt and thrive despite fluctuating commodity price environments.
• Devon Energy’s results were characterized by a focus on maintaining a strong balance sheet, optimizing operational efficiency, and committing to shareholder returns even in adverse market conditions.

• Investments in commodities and gold as a percentage share of family offices money remain very little, as this year’s Global Family Office Report by UBS shows.
• When asked how they are defying the volatile environment, respondents most frequently cite the selection of managers and/or active management (40%), followed by hedge funds (31%).
• Almost as many family offices are increasing their holdings of illiquid assets (27%) and more than a quarter (26%) are focusing on high-quality bonds with short maturities. 

• The recent results and investment outlook for Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) reflect both strategic advancements and operational challenges faced during the quarter.
• In the first quarter of 2025, MPC reported a net loss of $0.24 per share, primarily due to decreased results in their Refining and Marketing, as well as renewable diesel segments.
• However, despite posting a net loss, the company achieved a commendable 104% capture rate amidst significant turnaround activities, indicative of strong operational execution under volatile market conditions.

• Asia’s base oils demand likely to weaken in face of seasonal slowdown in consumption and rise in supply.
• Drop in lube demand likely to gather pace from start of Q3 2025.
• Drop in demand could be larger than usual because of weaker-than-expected economic growth.

• JSW Steel’s Q4/24-25 results were poor, with lower revenues and earnings due to a weak pricing environment and despite a record production year from capacity expansion.
• The balance sheet deteriorated significantly, although liquidity improved materially.
• We expect FY 2025-26 to be better, with a significant increase in earnings due to an improved pricing environment as well as the new safeguard duty in India.

• MPLX LP reported its financial results for the first quarter of 2025, demonstrating several key developments in its operations and strategic initiatives.
• The company achieved an adjusted EBITDA of $1.8 billion, marking a 7% year-over-year increase, and generated a distributable cash flow of $1.5 billion.
• MPLX returned approximately $1 billion to its unitholders through dividends and conducted $100 million in unit repurchases, reinforcing its commitment to returning capital.

• For the week ending 23/May, U.S. natural gas prices remained flat despite having a volatile week. Hot summer forecasts were offset by a strong storage build.
• For the week ending 23/May, the EIA reported that U.S. natural gas inventories rose by 120 Bcf, moderately higher than analyst expectations of a 118 Bcf build.
• Henry Hub OI PCR fell to 0.89 on 23/May compared to 0.92 on 16/May. Call OI increased by 4.4% WoW, while put OI grew by 1.5%.

Founded in 1973, Reliance Industries (RIL) is one of the largest conglomerates in Asia and India’s largest private-sector corporation. It has diverse businesses including energy, petrochemicals, natural gas, retail, telecommunications, mass media and textiles. RIL is India’s largest exporter, accounting for 8% of total merchandise exports and 5% of the government’s revenue from customs and excise duty. It is listed on the Indian Stock Exchange, with a market cap of c. USD 200 bn. The company is owned (49.5%) and controlled by Mukesh Ambani.

• The narrative surrounding China’s front-loaded stimulus faced some headwinds as April’s total social financing (TSF) figures undershot expectations, registering 1.16 trillion yuan compared to expected 1.3-1.4 trillion yuan.
• Nonetheless, TSF remains up 28% ytd, reaching 15.2 trillion yuan, indicating a robust overall increase relative to the prior year. We expect it to pick up steam in future months. 
• We believe this will be bullish for copper pricing, coupled with the supply side sluggishness. (Read: Post Results FY24: Mine-By-Mine Plan Production + Commentary on Copper From Global Listed Companies ).

• NALCO has guided for alumina realizations around $400/t in FY26, with earnings further impacted by delays in ramp-up of its 1 MTPA alumina expansion project.
• Q4 FY25 results were strong, but earnings outlook has weakened significantly with the steep drop in alumina prices.
• Valuations appear inexpensive on FY27 earnings at 5x EV/EBITDA, however peristent delays in capacity rampup is concerning. 

• Empire Energy Group Limited (ASX:EEG) is a gas development company, with onshore Northern Territory (NT) gas exploration and development assets.
• EEG has the largest tenement position in the highly prospective Greater McArthur Basin, which includes the Beetaloo Sub-basin.
• Having successfully completed a $27.75m equity capital raise, with an additional $3.25m subject to shareholder approval and SPP take-up, the company should be funded through to first gas from the Carpentaria Pilot Project by around end-2025.