Energy & Materials Sector

• The narrative surrounding China’s front-loaded stimulus faced some headwinds as April’s total social financing (TSF) figures undershot expectations, registering 1.16 trillion yuan compared to expected 1.3-1.4 trillion yuan.
• Nonetheless, TSF remains up 28% ytd, reaching 15.2 trillion yuan, indicating a robust overall increase relative to the prior year. We expect it to pick up steam in future months. 
• We believe this will be bullish for copper pricing, coupled with the supply side sluggishness. (Read: Post Results FY24: Mine-By-Mine Plan Production + Commentary on Copper From Global Listed Companies ).

• NALCO has guided for alumina realizations around $400/t in FY26, with earnings further impacted by delays in ramp-up of its 1 MTPA alumina expansion project.
• Q4 FY25 results were strong, but earnings outlook has weakened significantly with the steep drop in alumina prices.
• Valuations appear inexpensive on FY27 earnings at 5x EV/EBITDA, however peristent delays in capacity rampup is concerning. 

• Empire Energy Group Limited (ASX:EEG) is a gas development company, with onshore Northern Territory (NT) gas exploration and development assets.
• EEG has the largest tenement position in the highly prospective Greater McArthur Basin, which includes the Beetaloo Sub-basin.
• Having successfully completed a $27.75m equity capital raise, with an additional $3.25m subject to shareholder approval and SPP take-up, the company should be funded through to first gas from the Carpentaria Pilot Project by around end-2025.

• AptarGroup, Inc. delivered a mixed set of results for the first quarter of 2025, navigating a complex landscape with varying performance across its business segments.
• Starting with the positives, Aptar’s Pharma segment continues to be a strong contributor, with core sales increasing by 3%.
• This growth was driven predominantly by the robust demand for proprietary drug delivery systems, including solutions for emergency medicines and chronic conditions such as asthma and COPD.

• Chevron Corporation reported its first-quarter 2025 financial results, showcasing strong operational and strategic performance amidst ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties.
• Chevron’s commitment to shareholder returns remained robust, with $6.9 billion returned through dividends and buybacks in the quarter, continuing a streak of $5 billion or more per quarter for 12 consecutive quarters.
• The company made progress in strategic acquisitions, notably acquiring nearly 5% of Hess’s common shares, anticipating completing the merger soon.

• DuPont’s first quarter financial results for 2025 show a blended performance of challenges and growth dynamics.
• Organic sales increased by 6%, and operating EBITDA rose 16% compared to the prior year, reflecting solid operational leverage.
• The company’s operating EBITDA margin improved by 240 basis points, and adjusted EPS rose by 30% to $1.03 per share, indicating robust profitability and effective cost management.

• ExxonMobil recently reported its first quarter results, presenting a mixed but generally robust outlook for the energy giant.
• The company posted earnings of $7.7 billion, marking a 4% sequential rise, despite significant market volatility and pressures due to a combination of slower economic growth forecasts and potential increases in OPEC supply.
• This environment is driving down prices and margins, emphasizing the importance of ExxonMobil’s strategy focused on operational efficiency, cost control, and a strong portfolio.

• Graphic Packaging Holding Company reported its first-quarter 2025 financial results, indicating a challenging period due to several adverse factors affecting the business.
• The company’s sales reached $2.1 billion, with an adjusted EBITDA of $365 million and margins at 17.2%, falling below expectations mainly due to weaker volumes in the Americas and broad-based input cost inflation.
• Adjusted earnings per share were reported at $0.51.

• JSW Steel has guided for 10% volume growth in FY26, with operating leverage and cost efficiencies poised to drive significant margin expansion.
• The Supreme Court ruling on BPSL has created new challenges, the issue is not expected to derail JSW’s growth trajectory or cash flows and production.
• Earnings could surge over 85% in FY26, supported by higher steel prices, lower input costs, and ramp-up of new capacities like JVML and Dolvi.

• Shell has presented a comprehensive set of results for the first quarter of 2025.
• The company has shown a strong operational and financial performance, with several positive developments and challenges worth noting for potential and current investors.
• Positive aspects of the quarter include a substantial increase in adjusted earnings to $5.6 billion, marking a 52% rise from the previous quarter.

• Westlake Corporation’s performance in the first quarter of 2025 presented a mixed picture of challenges and opportunities across its two primary segments—Performance and Essential Materials (PEM) and Housing and Infrastructure Products (HIP).
• Financial results showed a complex landscape shaped by external economic factors and internal operational dynamics.
• Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

• The Williams Companies recently reported a robust first quarter of 2025, reflecting growth across several segments and a promising outlook further supported by strategic investments and developments.
• The results demonstrate a mix of both strengths and challenges that investors may consider when formulating an investment thesis.
• On the positive side, The Williams Companies experienced solid growth in adjusted EBITDA, reporting an increase of 3% from the same quarter last year, largely driven by its Transmission and Gulf segment.

• Back on the 21st May, Xanadu Mines (XAM AU), a Mongolian copper-gold mining play, inked an off-market deal with Bastion @A$0.08/share in cash. 
• Bastion comprises Singapore-based Baroo (comprising board members from Mongolia) and Xanadu director Ganbayer Lkhagvasuren. Bastion is also subscribing for 286.8mn shares, at A$0.06/share, or 13% fully diluted.
• A follow-up Q&A session is worth listening to in full to gauge why Zijin (JV partner and 19.8% shareholder) may view Bastion taking control of XAM as a good thing.  

• Disappointing industrial production and consumer spending data from China, along with stagnant new housing prices, dampened investor sentiment.
• Steel consumption remains robust even amid China’s property sector woes, as elevated mill activity and profitability at 60% of blast-furnace plants highlight the market’s core strength.
• On the technical front, current prices remain above the 21-day and 50-day moving averages, suggesting a positive short-to-mid-term trend.

• After adding ~2,300 Boe/d of shallow-decline production in the Lime Rock acquisition, management altered its FY25 capital program to favor allocating free cash flow to debt reduction.
• 2Q25 capital spending guidance was lowered by more than 50% from prior expectations, yet production guidance was maintained at 20,500-22,500 Boe/d (13,700-14,700 Bo/d).
• Updated full-year guidance reflects a 36% capital spending reduction from management’s initial outlook and a 5% production reduction. 

• Slipping butadiene costs impact prices of SBR, BR and NBR  
• Near steady domestic production fails to match rise in consumption  
• EPDM, Silicone Rubber prices near stable since February  

• Journey reported 1Q25 earnings on May 8 and subsequently released a new investor presentation.
• It included a longer-term outlook on the Duvernay JV with forecasted development plans.
• Journey also provided forecasted sensitivities for earnings on the developing power business.

• Eventful start to the year. Last week, TMC provided the investment community with an update on its business performance, 1Q25 financial results, and events that took place after the close of the quarter, which included completing a successful capital raise and filing three applications with the NOAA for exploration and commercial collection of polymetallic nodules in the Clarion-Clipperton Zone (CCZ) of the Pacific Ocean.
• 1Q25 operating loss and cash use rates reduced. TMC’s 1Q25 operating loss of $18 million improved from the year-ago loss of $24.7 million as an $8.6 million decline in exploration and evaluation expenses was partially offset by a $1.9 million increase in general & administrative expenses.
• TMC used $9.3 million in cash during the quarter, slowing its cash burn rate from last year’s $11.8 million.

• Targa Resources Corp., a key player in the midstream energy sector, presented its first-quarter 2025 earnings, demonstrating a mixed performance influenced by a combination of operational excellence and market challenges.
• The company reported record adjusted EBITDA driven by strong activity in the Permian Basin, despite facing adverse winter weather conditions that impacted volumes.
• However, the company’s proactive approach to managing these interruptions, including strategic purchase and storage of steel to mitigate potential tariff impacts, stands out as a positive aspect.

• Vulcan Materials is a major player in the construction aggregates market, providing the foundation for buildings, roads, and infrastructure in the United States.
• The company owns and operates quarries across the country, with a market cap close to $30 billion.
• Aggregates are essential for asphalt and concrete production, with Vulcan playing a crucial role in supplying this key material for construction projects.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• For the week ending 16/May, U.S. crude inventories grew by 1.3m barrels (vs. expectations of a 0.9m barrel fall). Similarly, gasoline and distillate stockpiles unexpectedly rose.
• The EIA reported a 120 Bcf storage build, exceeding analyst forecasts of an 118 Bcf increase. Storage levels are 3.9% above the five-year average.
• Barclays initiated coverage on Saudi Aramco with an ‘Overweight’ rating. Jefferies downgraded BP to ‘Hold’ from ‘Buy’, and Citigroup lifted its price target on Occidental Petroleum.

• Greetings from Copenhagen.
• We’ve previously advocated a long tilt toward commodities, as both the U.S. and global growth outlooks are being repriced amid the reopening of trade and the sudden realization that the U.S., China, and even Europe have collectively slammed the deficit accelerator—rather than the brakes.
• Everywhere you look, countries are ramping up fiscal spending to cushion the blow of tariffs.

• Albemarle Corporation’s first quarter of 2025 earnings report provides a measured perspective on the company’s current standing and future prospects, presenting an amalgam of strengths and challenges faced by the company.
• The corporation reported net sales of $1.1 billion, reflecting robust lithium production, particularly through their integrated conversion network.
• This was a positive highlight in a period marked by broader volatility in lithium pricing.

• EOG Resources, Inc. reported a robust performance for the first quarter of 2025, showcasing both its operational efficiency and strategic capital management within the volatile oil and gas industry.
• The company achieved adjusted net income of $1.6 billion, with $1.3 billion in free cash flow, which was largely returned to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases.
• This positions EOG as a shareholder-friendly entity with a keen focus on value creation in line with its history of consistent returns.

• DT Midstream Inc. reported on a robust start to 2025, maintaining a steady roadmap with its financial and operational strategies.
• The company reaffirmed its 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance and extended its favorable outlook into 2026.
• The integration of newly acquired interstate pipelines is progressing smoothly, with all financial activities transitioned into DT Midstream’s systems by April 1st.

• Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. (APD) recently reported its financial performance and strategic outlook, marking a period of transition under the new CEO, Eduardo Menezes.
• The company, historically a leader in the industrial gases sector, is recalibrating its strategic priorities to focus more on its traditional business strengths while addressing challenges from previous strategic forays into high-risk growth areas.
• A primary point of discussion has been the company’s shift back to its core industrial gas business, which includes on-site projects with take-or-pay agreements, a robust merchant business, and a portfolio of high-quality joint ventures.

HELLENiQ’s Q125 saw both weak refining margins and suppressed oil products sales due to inventory build ahead of a turnaround at its Elefsina refinery. The company reported adjusted EBITDA of €180m (down 47% y-o-y), and adjusted net income of €55m (down 66% y-o-y). Refining sales volumes reached 3.532m tonnes, an 11% decrease year-on-year, although production was down only 3%, the difference being inventory build ahead of the Elefsina shutdown for maintenance and upgrade. The benchmark refining margin was stable quarter-on-quarter at $5.1/bbl, but down materially from $8.0/bbl in Q124.

• 12th May: Cobalt Holdings, a Company created primarily to purchase and hold physical cobalt, offering public equity investors pure-play direct exposure to the price of cobalt, announced its intention to raise approximately US$230m through its Global Offer and the possible Admission on to the Main Market in June 2025.
• Glencore International AG and certain entities and affiliates managed by Anchorage Structured Commodities Advisor, have agreed to participate as cornerstone investors, agreeing to invest, in aggregate, an amount representing approximately 20.5% of the Shares to be offered pursuant to the Global Offer.
• 9th May: iFOREX Financial Trading, the fintech business with a proprietary online and mobile trading platform for multi-asset contracts for difference, announces that it is considering an IPO onto the Main Market.

• From January to April 2025, production averaged 26.5 mboe/d.
• This is consistent with 1Q25 production of 27.6 mboe/d, which benefited from one month of output from Triton.
• Repairs at Triton have been completed, and production remains on track to restart in June.

• With the review period nearly complete, there could be one change each for the S&P/ASX20 Index, S&P/ASX50 Index and S&P/ASX200 INDEX and two changes for the S&P/ASX100 Index in June.
• Passive trackers will need to buy between 1-12.5 days of ADV in the forecast adds and sell between 0.6-9.8 days of ADV in the forecast deletes.
• While cumulative excess volume has increased in the forecast adds and deletes, there could be underpositioning relative to the estimated passive flow in Perseus Mining, Viva Energy and Nick Scali.

• EPA regulation targeted previously unregulated emissions  
•  USTMA calls it regulatory overreach that shoots up costs  
• Move can bolster domestic manufacturing, competitiveness

• Iron ore mining capacity expansion from 2.35 MTPA to 6 MTPA and pellet capacity from 2.7 MTPA to 4.7 MTPA expected by 3QFY26 with full ramp-up by Q4 FY26.
• 4QFY25 consolidated revenues of ₹1,468 crore, with EBITDA at ₹318 crore and PAT at ₹221 crore, reflecting a slight decline year-on-year due to lower realizations.
• Valuations appear reasonable driven by steady earnings growth backed by capacity addition, mine expansion and operational efficiencies.

• It wouldn’t shock me if the word “SPAC” itself has a negative connotation in your mind, but of course, it doesn’t inherently imply anything nefarious.
• A SPAC or “Special Purpose Acquisition Company” is just a publicly traded shell corporation that raises capital through an IPO to merge with or acquire a private business, enabling that target to become publicly listed without undergoing its own traditional IPO.
• EverArc Holdings, an acquisition company listed in London in December 2019, raised ~$340 million and staffed its board with some heavy hitters: TransDigm co-founder Nick Howley, “Outsiders” author-investor Will Thorndike, and Berkshire alumna Tracy Britt Cool, among others . 

• During the capital markets day last week, Vaalco outlined a production growth profile reaching >45 mboe/d in 2029 and 50 mboe/d in 2030 – surpassing the peak production of ~40 mboe/d that we had anticipated.
• Production is expected to reach ~30 mboe/d by mid-2026 , driven by the 2025/2026 drilling program in Gabon and the restart of production at Baobab in Côte d’Ivoire (CI).
• The next major increase is forecasted for 3Q28, with the start-up of Venus in EG, adding +20 mbbl/d gross production.

• What you need to know: • Nicola announced that it has started receiving ore from Talisker Resources and is currently undergoing pre-production preparation.
• • The Company expects to reach full milling capacity (200tpd) by Q3.
• • 640t of run-of-mine material have already been delivered to the Merritt Mill, with stockpiling underway ahead of processing.

• • 1Q25 production of ~12 mbbl/d and net debt at the end of March had been previously disclosed.
• • The company has reaffirmed its FY25 production guidance of 11–13 mbbl/d but has raised its expected capex for 2025 from US$35 mm to US$40 mm.
• This increase reflects additional spending to appraise the Bourdon discovery.

• FET expects FY25 free cash flow to fall within management’s original guidance range of $40-60 million despite macro headwinds that could affect 2H25 spending patterns by its customers.
• 1Q25 free cash flow totaled $7.2 million and, because of seasonal events, is typically the company’s lowest free cash flow quarter in a calendar year.
• FET is actively managing its business in anticipation of potentially lower demand driven by macroeconomic and tariff uncertainty. 

• Late April, Shin Etsu Chemical (4063 JP) announced a huge ¥500bn 200mm shares (10.2%) buyback. That was never ever going to happen. That needed a ¥2500 share price, not ¥4300+.
• But it was big, and started in late May. Today, they announced how. It is a “Japan ASR”, the Nomura version, this time with an interesting twist.
• In response to a couple of reader questions today, I provide a brief overview of how these things work. 

• The latest BofA survey showed that the consensus trade continues to be “long gold” with 58% of participants surveyed, followed by only 22% “long mag 7”.
• According to the analysis, gold is now more overvalued than ever before (since data was recorded in 2008). At the same time, positioning in the US dollar fell to a 19-year low.
• The positioning in gold is even that extreme that it pulled the entire commodity basket up with it – relative to equities.

• US Group II base oils price-premium to vacuum gasoil trends higher in recent weeks compared with Q1 2025, even with dip in premium in mid-May.
• Group II domestic/export price premium trends higher after holding in relatively narrow range from mid-Nov 2024 to end-Q1 2025.
• Narrow range contrasts with steeper fall in Group II export price-premium to VGO in Q4 2023 and Q1 2024, followed by sharper recovery from end-Q1 2024.

• In FY2025/2, MORESCO Corporation (hereinafter referred to as “MORESCO” or “the Company”) reported net sales of JPY 34,374 mn (+7.8% YoY), driven by increased sales volumes in Japan and overseas, as well as revision to selling prices.
• Operating profit rose by only 13.6% YoY due to higher R&D expenses, while ordinary profit remained flat, weighed down by a decrease in foreign exchange gains and profits from equity-method investments.
• Profit attributable to owners of parent (hereinafter, net profit) fell by 21.1% YoY owing to a deterioration in extraordinary gains and losses. 

• Global base oils prices hold firm vs feedstock/competing fuel prices even as they edge lower.
• Firm base oils values point to tight supply-demand fundamentals, incentivize refiners to maintain high output.
• Base oils values hold firm ahead of typical seasonal slowdown in demand in coming weeks in Asia, and from start of Q3 in Europe/US.

• Archean Chemical Industries (ACI IN) posted strong operational performance, driven by robust export growth and stable demand across key segments.
• Despite external market challenges, Archean’s diversified product portfolio and strategic acquisitions provide a solid foundation for future growth.
• Archean is well-positioned to continue expanding, with significant upside in bromine derivatives and energy storage, supporting its long-term growth trajectory.

• Apcotex Industries (APCO IN) reported a robust 12.5% YoY revenue growth in Q4 FY25, driven by strong volume and export growth.
• Despite external challenges like crude price volatility and global overcapacity in latex, the company showcased strong operational performance.
• The recovery in margins, driven by improved capacity utilization and higher exports, supports optimism for FY26 despite market uncertainties.

• China’s industrial output grew 6.1% YoY in April 2025, surpassing expectations but slowing from March’s 7.7% surge, as the economy sustained steady growth amid complex domestic and external challenges. 
• Retail sales growth slowed to 5.1% in April, missing expectations despite government stimulus. Cautious consumer sentiment persists amid economic challenges, subdued income growth, and concerns over U.S. tariffs.
• Easing U.S.-China tensions are boosting Chinese market confidence, driving up steel production and iron ore demand. With inventories thinning, spot buyers may bid aggressively, lifting prices in the near term.

• SolarBank has positioned itself as a vertically integrated energy firm offering solar, battery energy storage systems (BESS), and other forms of power development services, EPC services, Operations & Maintenance services, and operates as an independent power producer (IPP).
• Despite the apparent shift in US Energy policy at the Federal level, demand for renewable energy remains robust at the state, provincial, and local levels.
• Increased energy demand from data centers, renewed domestic manufacturing, and EV penetration should all increase solar demand.

• ADX has now matured 13 shallow gas prospects across the ADX-AT-I and ADX-AT-II licence areas in Austria.
• The play is proven, supported by historical discoveries within the basin.
• Nearby historical discoveries in the area have produced 220 bcf to date.

• The S&P 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.
• In this insight, we take a look at the upcoming constituent changes in the run up to the June 2025 index rebal event.
• We expect two regular changes in June 2025. There are also multiple live spin-off and M&A events which may trigger intra-review index changes near-term. Check the Leaderboards for those.

• Xanadu (XAM AU), a Mongolian copper-gold mining play, has entered a deal with Bastion, two weeks after an agreement with JV partner and major shareholder Zijin Mining (601899 CH) lapsed.
• Bastion, which comprises Singapore-based Baroo and Xanadu director Ganbayer Lkhagvasuren, are offering A$0.08/share in cash. Bastion is also subscribing for 286.8mn shares, at A$0.06/share, or 13% fully diluted. 
• The off-market Offer is contingent on a 50.1% acceptance hurdle. CAAF (11.85%) is supportive. No word on how Zijin (19.8% stakeholder, before dilution) will play this. 

• Steve Lowe, former managing director at Scotiabank, discusses his experience leading the iconic Scotia metals business
• Scotiabank’s success in the gold market was attributed to its broad scope and involvement in the physical business
• Focus on client service and cooperation among regions contributed to Scotiabank’s success in the gold market

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• Asia’s heavy-grade base oils prices hold firm versus feedstock/gasoil prices.
• Asia’s Group II light-grade prices slip vs feedstock/gasoil prices faster than heavy grades and faster than Group I light grades.
• Supply-demand fundamentals likely to improve for light and heavy grades in coming weeks as plant maintenance draws to a close and demand slows.

• Asia’s base oils demand could see earlier-than-usual seasonal slowdown in face of weak lube consumption and improving supply.
• Asia’s lube demand falls at end-Q1 2025 from year-earlier levels.
• Demand weakness shows signs of extending into Q2 2025 as uncertainty about US tariffs compounds signs of slowing economic growth.

• Aarti Industries (ARTO IN) posted a solid 9% QoQ revenue growth, driven by higher volumes in the energy sector.
• The company is navigating external volatility, including US tariffs and geopolitical uncertainty, while maintaining growth through volume recovery and diversification.
• The solid volume uptick in key sectors positions Aarti for continued growth in FY26, despite margin pressures.

• We summarize our gleanings from the Champion Iron (CIA AU) presentation, which captures the cost curve and other interesting details on the DRI market. 
• After declining below 100 USD/ton for 2 weeks, iron ore prices have slowly inched up towards 100 USD/ton, maintaining their level at the high end of the cost curve. 
• A 100 USD/ton level bodes well for the cash flows of the larger low-cost players like Vale (VALE US), Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU). 

• For the week ending 16/May, U.S. natural gas prices dropped by 12.2% on the back of mild weather, rising output, and lower LNG export flows.
• For the week ending 09/May, the EIA reported that U.S. natural gas inventories rose by 110 Bcf, moderately lower than analyst expectations of a 111 Bcf build.
• Henry Hub OI PCR remained unchanged at 0.92 on 16/May compared to 09/May. Call OI increased by 3.5% WoW, while put OI grew by 3.3%.

• US$16.9 mn initiative to enhance productivity and quality in Northeast  
• Stress on sheet-making infrastructure to fetch better price for farmers  
• INROAD creates over 136,000 new smallholders in the Northeast  

• WTI futures rose 1.6% for the week ending 16/May, aided by easing U.S.-China trade tensions and geopolitical tensions. Gains were capped by rising U.S. inventories and oversupply concerns.
• The U.S. rig count fell by two to 576. The oil rig count fell by one to 473, while gas rigs also fell by one to 100.
• WTI OI PCR grew to 0.82 on 16/May compared to 0.81 on 09/May. Call OI dropped by 27.4% WoW, while put OI fell by 26.7%.

• The LatAm Aggregate Index contracted by 17 bps to 315 bps in the week ending Friday, May 16, 2025, and is now trading 26 bps below its 3-month average.
• MELI 1Q25: Impressive Growth, Little Room for Further Spread Compression / YPF 1Q25: Margin Expansion and Strategic Progress Back Outperformance View
• Suzano 1Q25: Credit Metrics Improve Despite EBITDA Miss, Remain Outperform / Minerva 1Q25: Integration and Deleveraging Underpin Outperformance View

Pan American Silver (PAAS) delivered strong quarterly results, with higher commodity prices boosting revenues and lowering costs. Q125 EBITDA was US$330m, just 5% shy of the seasonally strongest Q4 number, as costs were markedly below and production was in line with quarterly guidance for both segments. The company maintained its FY25 operating outlook, which points to seasonally strong quarters ahead. PAAS also announced a proposed acquisition of MAG Silver (MAG), valuing the company at US$2.1bn. MAG owns 44% in a top-tier Juanicipio silver operation in Mexico. In this note, we provide an initial take on the transaction, while keeping our revised estimates and valuation of PAAS on a standalone basis.

• Iron ore futures surged to a six-week high as U.S.-China trade tensions eased, with both nations agreeing to sharply reduce tariffs for 90 days, boosting market sentiment and commodity demand. 
• Underlying demand remains weak, with China’s steel consumption pressured by a cooling property sector and ongoing structural shifts across its broader economic landscape. 
• On the technical front, the outlook is turning increasingly bullish as prices are holding above key moving averages. 

• In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the June 2025 index rebal event.
• We expect one change for ASX 20, one change for ASX 50, two changes for ASX 100, and one change for ASX 200. 
• The official index changes will be announced after the close on Friday 6th June 2025.

• Q4 FY25 volumes grew 1.8%, value declined; FY26 guidance is for low growth with 18–20% margins supported by integration and cost control.
• Grasim and JSW are aggressively expanding with large capex and dealer networks, intensifying pricing pressure in decorative paints.
• Stock corrected 15–20% but still trades at ~55x P/E, which remains expensive given slowing growth and rising competitive risks.

• GMDC delivered strong FY25 results with 8MT of lignite sales and Rs992 crore in EBITDA, its second-best performance.
• The company is focused on scaling lignite and coal volumes through new mines within Gujarat and Odisha. It also plans to diversify into rare earths and critical minerals. 
• While valuations appear slightly elevated, upside optionality exists from the revival of Akrimota power plant and operationalization of new mines.

• Akzo Nobel N.V. earlier announced its plans to exit India to focus on core markets where it holds a position of “differentiating scale.
• JSW Paints has reportedly entered exclusive talks to acquire Akzo India, edging out Advent–Indigo and Pidilite.
• Shareholders may tender in the open offer or stay invested for potential upside via JSW which has a long stellar track-record.

• Consolidated sales reached JPY262.1bn (+2.5% YoY), with operating profit at JPY13.1bn (+54.0% YoY), driven by market recovery.
• Segment sales varied, with packaging inks declining in Asia, while jet inks for digital printing increased significantly.
• Operating profit rose in Japan and overseas, supported by cost savings and stable sales prices across product lines.

• OPEC held its 2025 and 2026 demand growth forecasts steady. The IEA’s upward revision reflects a catch-up adjustment for 2024, not a fundamental shift in its forward outlook.
• The EIA raised its demand growth forecast by 7.8% for 2025 but cut estimates by 13.5% for 2026. Meanwhile, it raised supply forecasts and projected inventory builds for both years.
• The EIA expects Henry Hub prices to rise in 2025 and 2026 from current levels, though it revised its 2025 forecast 3.5% lower and lifted 2026 estimates by 4.3%.

• Hercules Site Services is a technology-enabled labour supply and recruitment services provider, specialising in the UK infrastructure and construction sectors.
• Hercules services are powered by a bespoke Personnel Management System, and a Mobile Recruitment app allowing agility and flexibility, ensuring the right builder is at the job in the right location.
• The Trading Update to March 2025, reported this week on 7 May, anticipates revenue to be more than 17% higher than last year at £54m, which is in line with market expectations. 

• In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Pertamina (Persero)
• In the US, retail sales eased to 0.1% m-o-m (0.0% e / 1.7% revised p) in April, driven by lower car sales (after a front-loaded surge in March), as well as declines in several categories of imported items including sporting goods and apparel.
• This was offset by higher spending at restaurants and bars, which accelerated for a second month.

• Aichi Steel (5482 JP) announced earnings on 25-April during market hours. Results were OK. Guidance was OK. The div was WAY up for Mar26. Shares fell. Then rose 26-April.
• Aichi Steel is a Toyota Motors equity affiliate (26-27%), Toyota Industries, Toyota R.E., megabanks, the Kyoeikai, and Nippon Steel all have stakes. Nippon Steel recently reduced its position. 
• Activist Murakami has about 10% across two entities. This morning, the Company was to buy back 16%. WHO is selling? We don’t know yet. Likely a mix. Details may matter.

• Sumitomo Metal Mining (TSE:5713) faced challenges in FY2024, with earnings impacted by weak treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs) in the copper segment and underperformance in battery materials.
• Its recent 3-Year Business Plan 2027,  to boost EBITDA from ¥150 billion to ¥275 billion by FY2027 by working on the mines, focussing on battery materials business, and recycling.
• The stock has declined approximately 37% over the past year, making it more attractive with a forward EV/EBITDA of around 4.0x, suggesting potential undervaluation.

• Revenue increased by 16.0% YoY to JPY66.4bn, driven by higher product prices and semiconductor equipment demand.
• Operating profit rose 18.2% YoY, aided by increased gross profit per unit and inventory valuation gains.
• FY03/26 forecast: Revenue JPY75.8bn (+14.1% YoY), operating profit JPY3.2bn (+8.3% YoY), net income JPY2.4bn (+5.1% YoY).

• A volatile metal price has boosted the risk for BHP’s remaining strong major segment, copper, while the other two key divisions, iron ore and coal, are still sluggish
• We forecast a weaker 2025E-2026E than consensus, given the risk that global demand disappoints and continues to pressure metal prices for BHP’s three key segments
• Our conservative valuation puts BHP near fair value, and while the P/B of 2.4x is only moderately elevated versus recent history, we see the risks weighted to the downside

• For the week ending 09/May, U.S. crude inventories grew by 3.5m barrels (vs. expectations of a 2m barrel fall). Meanwhile, gasoline and distillate stockpiles unexpectedly fell.
• The EIA reported a 110 Bcf storage build, slightly lower than the 111 Bcf forecast. Storage levels are 2.6% above the five-year average.
• Saudi Aramco’s Q1 profit fell 4.8% YoY but beat estimates by 2.8%. Morgan Stanley downgraded BP to Underweight from Equalweight, while HSBC lowered Chevron to Hold from Buy.

• DOWA reported flat FY24 profits at ¥27.1 bn; FY25 guidance projects stable revenue at ¥692 bn and slightly lower profit of ¥27.0 bn.
• Diversified businesses in recycling, smelting, and materials processing are positioned to support long-term trends in resource efficiency and circular economy development.
• Valuations appear cheap despite low near-term growth visibility. We aligned to global trends towards recycling and sustainability.

• • Production from January to April 2025 was 5,757 boe/d, comprising 4,216 boe/d from Vietnam and 1,541 bbl/d from Egypt.
• This is consistent with the FY25 production guidance of 5.0-6.2 mboe/d, which has been reaffirmed.
• • In Egypt, receivables increased from US$29.5 million at year-end 2024 to US$31.7 mm by the end of April.

• Tough start to the year. RYAM reported 1Q25 results that included revenue of $356 million (down 8% Y/Y and below our $363 million estimate) and EBITDA of $17 million (well below the year-ago result of $52 million and our $48 million estimate).
• A non-cash environmental charge of $12 million and an FX hit of ($5) million, combined with weather, higher maintenance-related operating costs, and lower volumes, more than offset modestly higher prices in Cellulose Specialties and Cellulose Commodities and benefits from prior cost reduction efforts.
• New reporting structure highlights progress toward specialty. RYAM changed the way it reports results of its High Purity Cellulose division, splitting the division into three segments beginning in 1Q25 (Cellulose Specialties [CS], Cellulose Commodities [CC], and Biomaterials), highlighting the profitable nature of its CS (23% EBITDA margin in 1Q25) and Biomaterials (29% EBITDA margin in 1Q25) businesses and continuing deemphasis of CC sales.

• FY03/25 revenue reached JPY84.4bn, a 2.8% YoY increase; operating profit rose 107.1% YoY to JPY6.1bn.
• Electronic materials revenue grew 27.5% YoY; titanium dioxide and zinc products turned profitable, aiding overall recovery.
• FY03/26 outlook projects revenue of JPY86.0bn (+1.9% YoY) and operating profit of JPY6.5bn (+6.7% YoY).

• Sales declined 8.9% YoY to JPY317.1bn, with operating profit reaching JPY4.0bn from a JPY711mn loss in FY03/24.
• Sales rose 0.4% YoY to JPY75.3bn, while operating profit increased 23.2% to JPY1.0bn, despite higher costs.
• Sinanen forecasts FY03/26 sales of JPY367.3bn (+15.8% YoY) and plans to maintain a JPY90 per share dividend.