Energy & Materials Sector

• Vale’s China strategy is paying off, with premium products and a richer sales mix driving stronger growth while peers struggle to protect their foothold in China.
• Bacaba’s early start-up is more than a scheduling win. It signals tangible progress toward Vale’s ambition to significantly expand copper production.
• Higher iron ore C1 costs, mounting pressure on Chinese steel demand, and Serra Sul +20 execution remain key watchpoints.

• PT Petrindo Jaya Kreasi (CUAN) is a rapidly growing Indonesian holding company, controlled by prominent tycoon Prajogo Pangestu, with a core focus on coal mining that is aggressively diversifying into gold, silica sand, and mining services.
• The company exhibits a high-growth profile, evidenced by explosive revenue increases and strategic acquisitions, such as the purchase of PT Multi Tambangjaya Utama. However, this growth is accompanied by significant financial risks, including volatile margins and consistently negative operating and free cash flows.
• Valuation appears stretched, with key metrics like P/E and EV/EBITDA trading at a substantial premium to regional peers. This reflects high market expectations for its diversification strategy but also presents a considerable valuation risk for investors.

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• What you need to know: • Aztec reported results from nine RC drill holes, led by the first step-outs into the recently acquired North Extension Zone.
• • TR26-39 returned 1.69 g/t AuEq (1.42 g/t Au and 14.58 Ag) over 88.4m and TR26-38 intercepted 1.36 g/t AuEq over 97.5m from surface.
• • 90 RC drill holes are now complete, with 11 further step-outs (TR26-40 to TR26-50) up to ~230m north still pending, which are expected to also be incorporated into the upcoming MRE.

• Nippon Denko’s 1H FY12/26 revenue reached JPY38.8bn, operating profit JPY5.3bn, and recurring loss JPY2.9bn.
• Domestic Ferroalloys business saw underlying recurring profit rise to JPY1.6bn, while overseas faced JPY400mn loss.
• Full-year forecasts include JPY81.1bn revenue, JPY11.0bn operating profit, and JPY7.5bn underlying recurring profit.

• Atlas Mining is a major Philippine copper producer, operating the Toledo mine through its subsidiary Carmen Copper, with gold and silver as significant by-products.
• The company’s financial performance is highly sensitive to volatile global copper prices and operational efficiency, as evidenced by its recent swing from profitability to net losses despite a strong long-term outlook for copper demand.
• Key strategic initiatives include a focus on operational efficiency, cost management, and sustainability projects like a floating solar power facility to mitigate energy costs and environmental impact.

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• Fluence Energy is a global leader in the high-growth energy storage sector, providing integrated solutions that combine hardware, services, and advanced AI-powered software to optimize renewable energy assets and enhance grid stability.
• The company is strategically positioned to benefit from the global energy transition and has a significant new growth catalyst through its partnership with Nvidia, targeting the rapidly expanding AI data center market.
• While revenue growth is strong, the company faces challenges in achieving consistent profitability and positive cash flow, coupled with high competitive intensity and reliance on volatile raw material supply chains.

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• Allegedly “progress has been made” in negotiations between Iran and Oman regarding “management” of the Strait of Hormuz, with apparently the U.S. “involved” in some manner.      
• If so, our previously discussed scenario could be the end game: Iran claims a “win” over the Strait as long as the U.S. claims a “win” over the nuclear issue.                  
• We shall see, but with great respect to the negotiating efforts, as previously discussed, we will believe it when we see it.             

• ArborGen is a global leader in forestry genetics, with a strong market position in the US South and Brazil, but faces a significant operational and financial dichotomy between its two key regions.
• The Brazilian operations are a key source of strength, exhibiting robust revenue growth and pricing power driven by the adoption of advanced genetics and containerized seedlings.
• Conversely, the US operations are grappling with persistent production and capacity challenges, leading to deteriorating financial performance, including significant net losses and negative cash flow, which has prompted downward revisions of future earnings estimates.

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• An Cuong Wood – Working (ACG) is a dominant force in Vietnam’s wood-working and decorative materials market, holding an estimated 55% market share in the medium and high-end segments. Its strong brand recognition, extensive nationwide distribution network, and integrated product offerings position it as a primary beneficiary of Vietnam’s long-term growth in construction and urbanization.
• The company’s financial performance is closely tied to the cyclical nature of the Vietnamese real estate market. While recent years have shown revenue growth, net income and cash flow have been volatile, reflecting margin pressures and challenges in the operating environment. Future profitability will depend on a sustained recovery in the property sector and effective cost management.
• ACG is pursuing growth through both domestic market penetration and export expansion. Strategic partnerships with property developers and an increasing focus on higher-margin export markets present significant opportunities. However, the company faces risks from raw material price fluctuations, rising competition from domestic and foreign players, and potential trade policy shifts in key export markets like the U.S.

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• Alkane Resources presents a dual-asset strategy, combining near-term cash flow from its Tomingley Gold Operations with significant, long-term value creation potential from its globally strategic Dubbo Project.
• The Dubbo Project is the company’s key value driver, offering a large-scale, long-life source of critical minerals including zirconium, niobium, and rare earths, positioning Alkane to capitalize on growing demand from high-tech and green energy sectors.
• Financial performance has been volatile, reflecting the capital-intensive nature of mining and development. While the company maintains a resilient balance sheet, the valuation commands a premium over some peers, which is predicated on the successful execution and de-risking of the Dubbo Project.

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• On the 20th July 2026, an US executive order was issued requiring major arms manufacturers to trace their  supply chains and actively phase out Chinese rare earths.
• A week later, the FT carried an article on hedge funds increasing their bets against US critical minerals companies.
• Given the US-Australia bilateral framework targeting critical minerals projects in Australia and the U.S., it is worthwhile analysing the bets, if any, against Aussie critical minerals companies. 

• Chung Mong-Joon is gifting a 3.54% stake in HD Hyundai to his eldest son HD Hyundai Chairman Chung Ki-Sung which will raise his stake in HD Hyundai to 9.67%.
• A 3.54% stake is worth 584 billion won. The gift tax payable by Chairman Chung is estimated to be around 350 billion won.
• My base case NAV valuation of HD Hyundai is market cap of 22.6 trillion won or target price of 285,557 won per share which represents 37% higher than current price.

Highlights

• June export earnings hold above US$336 million despite lower shipments

• Wintering and delayed monsoon keep Thai rubber supply under pressure

• Rubber prices peak above US$2,425/mt before sharp June correction

• Tidewater stands as the world’s largest operator of offshore support vessels (OSVs), making it a primary beneficiary of the sustained upcycle in offshore energy exploration and development.
• Through strategic acquisitions, notably of Swire Pacific Offshore and a significant portion of Solstad’s fleet, the company has consolidated the market and enhanced its fleet with a focus on high-specification vessels that command higher day rates and utilization.
• Strong free cash flow generation is enabling rapid deleveraging and provides future capital allocation optionality, though the company’s earnings are intrinsically tied to the cyclical and volatile offshore energy market.

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• Mount Gibson Iron is undergoing a significant strategic pivot from a pure-play iron ore producer to a diversified minerals company, driven by the finite life of its core Koolan Island asset and a desire to mitigate commodity price risk.
• The company’s primary operational focus is maximizing cash flow from its high-grade Koolan Island iron ore mine, which is expected to cease production in the first half of FY2027. Concurrently, MGX is advancing its new 50% stake in the Central Tanami Gold Project, aiming for a development decision within 12-18 months.
• Financial performance has been volatile, with a return to profitability in FY2023 followed by a significant net loss in FY2025 due to non-cash impairments reflecting lower iron ore prices. However, the company maintains a strong balance sheet with substantial cash and investment reserves and no bank debt, providing significant flexibility for its diversification strategy.

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• St Barbara Ltd (ASX: SBM) is trading at a near 1:1 cash backing of A$509 million as of June 30, 2026, which effectively assigns a negative enterprise value to its underlying mineral resources, representing an extreme market discount driven by historical permitting challenges and sovereign risk scars.
• The structural de-risking of the Simberi operation via the A$389 million Lingbao Gold transaction (completed April 2, 2026) and the A$100 million Kumul Minerals joint venture has fundamentally altered the company’s risk profile. By aligning Chinese state-backed capital and the Papua New Guinea government, SBM has secured full funding for its 50% share of the US$333 million Simberi sulphide expansion.
• The dual-track Nova Scotia strategy provides near-term cash flow and long-term optionality. The approved Touquoy stockpile restart (approved April 2026) is slated to process 3 million tonnes of ore to yield 38,000 ounces over a 10-to-14-month campaign starting late 2026. Meanwhile, the 15-Mile Processing Hub, which saw its resource upgraded 20% to 2.5 million ounces on July 28, 2026, remains a high-value but long-dated development play heavily dependent on Canada’s rigorous environmental permitting timelines.

• Iron ore remains on the back foot as deepening steel mill losses sap demand. Any lift from lower Fortescue shipments will likely fade without meaningful production cuts.
• Options traders are turning more bullish, adding upside bets above 100 while steadily unwinding downside protection despite weak near-term fundamentals.
• Managed money is leaning decisively bearish. With short positions jumping by 21% in July, participants are signalling iron ore’s downside risks are far from over.

• The oil market once again is taking President Trump at his word that a deal between the U.S. and Iran is close, if not virtually consummated.       
• We would note, however, that our energy equities appear to be taking a somewhat different view, i.e. in general they declined less than the commodity yesterday.                 
• In any event, as discussed on Monday, we will believe a comprehensive deal when we see it, and as such we do not rule out a return to open conflict.            

• Axalta Coating Systems reported its financial results for the second quarter of 2026, reflecting a continuation of operational improvements and solid progress toward strategic milestones.
• The company posted net sales of approximately $1.35 billion, up 3% year-over-year, marking the highest quarterly sales in two years.
• Adjusted EBITDA reached a record $305 million, a 5% increase from the prior year, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 22.7%, which is the highest for the second quarter in many years.

• Fine Organic Industries is a leading and pioneering manufacturer of oleochemical-based (‘green’) additives in India, with a strong global presence and a diversified product portfolio serving defensive end-markets like food, plastics, and cosmetics.
• The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the growing global demand for sustainable and bio-based products, which serves as a significant long-term tailwind for its specialized, ‘green’ additive solutions.
• While recent financial performance has been impacted by raw material price volatility and margin compression, the company maintains a strong balance sheet with minimal debt and is undertaking significant capacity expansions in India and the US to fuel future growth.

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• Crude Oil Futures dropped 6% on Monday, our model flagged asymmetric upside risk. We will use the United States Oil Fund LP (USO US) ETF for this analysis.
• USO is reaching the lower WEEKLY support levels on our model. This means that oil may briefly jump higher, once this weekly correction settles, this week.
• We expect the correction to end probably this week, barring major unpredictable events driven by decisions made by the US Gov, like ‘peace at any cost’.

• TLDR: Lionheart Holdings (CUB) is a Cayman SPAC with ~$200 million in trust and a deadline of March 20, 2027.
• It has signed a non-binding LOI to merge with KEO Energy, whose only asset is a 40% stake in the PetroUrdaneta joint venture in Venezuela’s Maracaibo Basin.
• The seller sold 16% of that asset last week at a price implying $234 million for the whole field.

• Unique Market Position: Oil and Gas Exploration and Production Plc (OGEP) is the sole Bulgarian company engaged in the full spectrum of oil and gas activities, from exploration and production to processing and marketing. This unique, integrated position within the domestic market provides a significant operational footprint.
• Challenging Financial Performance: The company has experienced a notable decline in financial performance, with revenue and net income contracting over the past three years. Negative growth rates in key metrics like market capitalization, net income, and free cash flow highlight significant operational and market headwinds.
• Strategic Importance vs. High Uncertainty: Despite its challenging financials, OGEP is of strategic importance to Bulgaria’s domestic energy production. However, the investment outlook is clouded by high uncertainty due to volatile commodity prices, significant reliance on exploration success, and the broader European energy transition towards renewables.

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• Revenue increased 8.8% YoY to JPY59.4bn, with significant growth in US and Malaysia subsidiaries despite local currency declines.
• Operating profit rose 8.2% YoY to JPY7.8bn, aided by yen depreciation and offsetting higher SG&A expenses.
• Net income attributable to owners increased 17.7% YoY to JPY6.3bn, driven by extraordinary gains from investment securities sales.

• GS Holdings operates as a diversified conglomerate with core interests in the energy and retail sectors, making its earnings susceptible to commodity price volatility and domestic consumption trends.
• The company is currently in a strategic transition, divesting non-core assets to focus on a ‘Green Transition’ which includes investments in LNG, EV charging infrastructure, and other renewable energy sources.
• Despite recent revenue declines and earnings volatility, the company maintains a strong market position in its key segments and trades at a significant valuation discount to peers, suggesting a potential value opportunity contingent on successful strategic execution.

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• HD Hyundai is a major South Korean conglomerate with a diversified portfolio across three core segments: shipbuilding, energy (oil refining), and heavy equipment, providing a balanced yet cyclical business model.
• The company is demonstrating strong financial performance, with record-breaking results in early 2026, driven by robust growth in its shipbuilding and power equipment businesses. This has led to significant momentum in its market capitalization.
• A key investment thesis is the potential for valuation upside, supported by a Net Asset Value (NAV) analysis indicating a 27.4% potential increase from its current price, and a reduced holding company discount reflecting improved corporate governance.

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• KG Dongbusteel is a major South Korean producer of cold-rolled and coated steel products, with a strong dividend profile and attractive valuation metrics, as indicated by its high Value and Dividend Smartscores.
• The company is facing headwinds from declining annual revenue and net income over the past three years, coupled with margin compression, reflecting a challenging steel market environment.
• The global and South Korean steel markets are expected to see modest growth, but face significant challenges from structural overcapacity, increased protectionism, and intense competition, which could continue to pressure profitability.

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• Lotte Fine Chemical (LFC) is transitioning its portfolio towards high-value-added specialty products, particularly in cellulose derivatives and electronic materials, to mitigate the cyclicality of its commodity chemical business.
• The company is a key player in the burgeoning clean energy sector, leveraging its position as Asia’s largest ammonia distributor to pioneer green ammonia and hydrogen supply chains, including the world’s first commercial ammonia bunkering for marine fuel.
• Financial performance has been volatile, with a significant recovery in profitability in 2025 driven by improved market conditions for chlorine-based products and strong demand for electronic materials. However, the company faces challenges from a broader downturn in the commodity petrochemical sector.

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• Options markets sent conflicting signals this week.
• Defensive put-buying dominated earnings plays, yet a handful of names saw call positioning hit 52-week extremes.
• The week of July 27 produced more than 60 high-severity options pulses, with earnings catalysts driving the bulk of the volatility in PCR readings.

• Yesterday, Press Metal (PRESS MK) announced it is buying a 35.6% stake in listed associate PMB Technology (PMBT MK) from its controlling shareholders’, the Koon family.
• Upon completion, Press Metal would hold 58.8% in PMB, up from 23.2%. However, no mandatory Offer is triggered as Press Metal obtained an exemption from Malaysia’s Securities Commission. 
• The exemption appears price-agnostic. But at least the Koon family is exiting at RM0.70/share versus the undisturbed price of RM1.79/share.

• I summarise the latest spreads and newsflow for the merger arb situations covered across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Chinese ADRs.
• Highest spreads: Skyworth (751 HK), Changhong Jiahua (3991 HK), Ns United Kaiun Kaisha (9110 JP), OFX Group (OFX AU), Atlantic Lithium (A11 AU), Cygnus Metals (CY5 AU). 
• Lowest spreads: Accent Group (AX1 AU), Kakaku.com Inc (2371 JP), Australian Strategic Materials (ASM AU), Future Corporation (4722 JP), Taiyo Holdings (4626 JP), Dida (2559 HK). 

• A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook
• A clearing event sets up the catalyst for a bounce in the AI/Memory names
• Joint Yen Intervention sets up the DXY for a breakdown

• Cargo-loadings from Taiwan extended their rebound, with a surge in shipments in the last 10 days of July.
• Cargo carrying a combination of Group II light and heavy grades loaded from Taiwan in the past week before heading to South Korea.
• Shipments from Taiwan to South Korea often then move on to other markets like the Americas.

• Crude oil futures were moving higher on Friday as investors hedged against further conflict escalation over the weekend, with diplomacy efforts seemingly stalled again.
• Sep26 ICE Brent futures were 1.2% higher at  $90.09/b (2050 BST) heading into the contract expiry, while Sep26 NYMEX  WTI was at $84.76/b , up 1.4% versus Thursday’s settle.
• Brent initially tumbled to an intraday low of $86.89/b before buying kicked in after operations at the Black Sea CPC were suspended again amid safety concerns after recent drone strikes.

Middle East Group III disruptions entered a sixth month, keeping exports at multi-year lows, while maintenance among other Group III producers threatened to tighten supply further. South Korea and India continued filling part of the shortfall, Singapore became a net base oils importer for the first time in five years, and slower replacement cargoes from Europe and the US pointed to limited spare supply ahead of August.

• FY26 shipments of 201.3 Mt of iron ore set a record, breaking 200 Mt for the first time, with mining, processing, and rail all at full-year highs.
• Growth is now port-gated at roughly 205 Mtpa, and FY27 C1 guidance of US$20.50 to US$21.75/wmt lifts the cost base by 13 percent.
• At A$18.51, it implies a 9.5x FY26e P/E, 4.5x EV/EBITDA, and a 6.9 percent yield. With costs likely to increase, we see earnings lower for FY27.

• Private Equity Buyout and Segment Separation Strategy: The ¥528.6 billion ($3.3 billion) privatization bid by Kohlberg Kravis Roberts (KKR) at ¥4,750 per share is fundamentally structured to untangle the capital allocation friction between Taiyo Holdings’ highly profitable core electronics business and its capital-intensive, lower-return pharmaceutical division. A carve-out, spin-off, or merger of Taiyo Pharma (including Taiyo Pharma Tech) with KKR’s existing portfolio assets (e.g., Bushu Pharma) is highly likely post-delisting.
• Solder Resist Moat and Pricing Power: Taiyo retains a 50% to 60% global market share in solder resist (SR). Because SR accounts for only 1% to 2% of the total printed circuit board (PCB) bill of materials (BOM), but a failure causes complete board scrap, Taiyo has absolute pricing pass-through power over raw material fluctuations. It successfully defends its moat against rivals like Resonac and Tamura through deep customer co-development and long qualification cycles.
• Regulatory Reformulation Risks: Tightening global PFAS restrictions under TSCA Section 8(a)(7) and the EU’s REACH framework are forcing a structural shift in SR chemistry. Replacing fluorinated surfactants and photoacid generators requires complete product reformulations. This increases R&D spending to 7% to 8% of electronics sales and introduces customer qualification delays of 18 to 24 months. This regulatory hurdle acts as a double-edged sword, reinforcing Taiyo’s incumbent advantage but slowing down the release of next-generation Dry Film Solder Resist (DFSR).

• Commercial and operational viability is severely constrained by an extreme lack of capital: Ecominas is a pre-revenue venture with no cash or recorded assets, a working capital deficit of $462,749, and an accumulated deficit of $5,488,880 as of March 31, 2026. Its planned $400,000 public offering is insufficient to commercialize its modular mining services model, where transport, setup, and engineering overhead for a single processing site can easily exceed $250,000.
• The “technology-led” model lacks proprietary substance: Despite marketing “AI-assisted analytics” and digital process optimization, SEC disclosures reveal that Ecominas does not own proprietary maintenance software or patented technology. The technology-driven mining services model is a positioning strategy wrapped around rented off-the-shelf physical processing machinery.
• Operating out of Caracas introduces fatal regulatory, banking, and geopolitical friction: Maintaining its principal executive office in Caracas, Venezuela, exposes the company to severe U.S. sanctions compliance risk under OFAC. In practice, bank overcompliance and capital expatriation controls make traditional cross-border cash management and execution virtually impossible for a U.S. OTC-listed public shell.

• Expand Energy Corporation’s second quarter of 2026 reflected a combination of solid operating execution, active capital allocation and a significant strategic shift toward a more integrated natural gas model.
• Management highlighted strong performance in Southwest Appalachia, continued operational improvements in the Haynesville and progress in organic leasing.
• The company used elevated first quarter cash generation to reduce gross debt by $1.3 billion, then repurchased approximately $850 million of shares, equal to about 4 percent of outstanding shares, when natural gas prices and the equity valuation weakened.

• The Sherwin-Williams Company reported solid growth in its second quarter of 2026 despite an environment characterized by ongoing global uncertainty and lack of meaningful demand improvement.
• Consolidated sales increased by a high-single-digit percentage, including a low-single-digit contribution from the Suvinil acquisition.
• Gross margin slightly decreased on a reported basis but rose when excluding the Suvinil acquisition’s dilutive impact.

• Crude futures eased slightly although were largely consolidating the midweek gains, while markets remained tense as renewed military strikes continued into Thursday with the US hitting targets in Iran.
• Front-month Sep26 ICE Brent futures were 2% lower at  $88.92/b (2040 BST), while Sep26 NYMEX  WTI was at $83.47/b , down 1.2% versus Wednesday’s settle.
• The latest barrage came after President Donald Trump vowed to hit Iran “very hard” after a US base in Jordan was again targeted, while reports of strikes on two LNG tankers off Egypt’s Mediterranean coast added to growing tensions.

• While we may see higher crude oil prices, the market may be “telling us something” given the lack of follow through after more attacks by the United States and Iran.       
• As a precaution, given our conservative nature, we are pulling our recommendation to buy NYMEX CL Oct-Nov calendar spreads, despite the relatively modest gains thus far.                
• NYMEX natural gas remains undervalued in our view; we recommend buying the Oct-Nov calendar spreads which settled yesterday at $0.22 per mmBtu, October under.

• Dainichiseika is a specialty chemical manufacturer with a strong focus on pigments, colorants, and printing inks, operating through a global network of manufacturing and sales subsidiaries.
• The company exhibits a compelling value and dividend profile, with strong growth in net income and dividends, alongside a valuation that appears discounted relative to its peers.
• While profitability metrics are strong, the company faces challenges related to stagnant top-line revenue growth and the inherent cyclicality and competitive pressures of the global specialty chemicals market.

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• Ecominas Corp. is an early-stage mining services and mineral-processing company providing solutions to third-party mining operators, primarily in Latin America. The company has not commenced revenue-generating operations.
• Ecominas is an early-stage mining services company with no revenue and an accumulated deficit of $5,488,880 as of March 31, 2026.
• Ecominas had an accumulated deficit of $(5,488,880) and a working capital deficit of $462,749 as of March 31, 2026.

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• Shin-Etsu Chemical’s price slumped after it maintaining full-year guidance in the Q1/27 results disappointed the market, and while overall EBIT recovered, this masked a divergence for the two largest divisions
• The continued severe decline in the US housing and PVC-driven Infrastructure segment has been offset by strength in the semiconductor-led Electronics, and smaller Functional, and Processing and Specialized, divisions  
• While it has declined to our well-below-consensus valuation, which prices in substantial risk for the major divisions, negative sentiment could persist and the shares stagnate given few immediate catalysts

• What you need to know: • LVG is commencing a Phase 3 land valuation and compensation program at its fully permitted Imwelo Gold Project, covering ~73 acres required for accommodation, workshop, and supporting mine infrastructure.
• • Phase 3 will begin on August 1st, adding to the 268 acres secured in Phase 1 (2019) and the 185 acres in Phase 2 (2023), for a combined ~526 acres.
• • The news arrives days after LVG announced the Phase 1 earthworks program, marking the start of physical construction at Imwelo.

• Ningbo Deye Technology Corporation is a globalized solar-plus-storage products manufacturer, delivering comprehensive PV and energy storage products for clean energy worldwide. Its new energy business is the core growth segment.
• The company expanded to over 150 countries and ranked 1st in global Residential Energy Storage Inverter Market revenue in 2024. Group revenue hit RMB10 billion in 2024.
• Revenue was 7,479,706 in 2023 and 12,223,743 in 2025. The debt-to-asset ratio increased to 55.7% as of April 30, 2026.

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• BP’s Kirkuk partnership reflects a broader capital allocation strategy, reducing redevelopment costs through selective partnerships while preserving exposure to high-quality assets.
• Despite improving leverage, BP still trails integrated peers on interest coverage, explaining management’s emphasis on debt reduction, disciplined capital allocation and delayed shareholder distributions.
• BP is prioritising balance sheet repair over production growth, laying the foundation for stronger shareholder returns once leverage declines and financial flexibility improves.

• Deye’s market leadership in high-margin emerging markets is protected by an aggressive region-locking strategy, implemented to safeguard authorized distributors’ high gross margins (around 51.1%) and defend against parallel imports.
• The expansion of Deye’s debt-to-asset ratio to 55.7% is a structural byproduct of its product mix shift, specifically the working capital demands of its lower-margin battery pack business (which grew 56.34% to RMB 3.83 billion in 2025), rather than over-leveraged manufacturing capacity expansion.
• Channel stickiness is anchored in deeply integrated OEM/white-label partnerships (such as Sunsynk and Sol-Ark) and software lock-in, making it highly difficult for Tier-1 competitors to displace Deye at the installer level, despite its high customer concentration with the top five clients representing 23.8% of revenue.

• While we had become constructive on the oil market after the recent declines, we were not expecting the events that catalyzed yesterday’s spike.       
• An alleged pre-emptive strike by the IRGC against U.S. assets in Jordan and joint U.S.-Saudi strikes into Iraq seemed to come out of the blue, inconsistent with previous behavior.                
• Having said this, in our view there still remains the possibility of a resumption of U.S.-Iran strikes and counterstrikes on a larger scale.          

• BP Silver released initial sampling results from its 2026 sampling program at the Cosuño Project highlighting widespread mineralization.
• Sampling focused on the Jalsuri Target Cluster and 85% of samples were mineralized, outlining continuity over ~2,100m of strike and solid grades.
• In addition, BPAG announced a second drill rig has been mobilized to site accelerating the Phase 2 drill program.

• Usha Martin, a specialty wire ropes and wires company, reported 16.4% revenue growth and 43.8% EBITDA growth in Q1 FY27 despite flat sales volume.
• Growth was driven by better product mix, realizations and cost control, showing the shift towards value-added, application-critical products rather than volume-led expansion.
• Elevator ropes, OceanFibre, Galstar and plasticated LRPC can be key growth drivers if qualification timelines and execution remain on track.

• Ningbo Deye Technology is a global leader in the residential energy storage inverter market, capitalizing on the growing demand for solar-plus-storage solutions worldwide. The company has demonstrated robust revenue growth, driven by its strategic focus on weak-grid and off-grid residential markets, particularly in emerging economies.
• Deye maintains high gross margins in its core energy storage inverter segment, a result of its differentiated OEM strategy, installer-level lock-in, and a region-locking mechanism that prevents parallel imports and protects distributor profitability. These factors contribute to sticky customer relationships and a sustainable competitive advantage.
• The company faces increasing financial leverage, with a rising debt-to-asset ratio primarily due to the working capital requirements of its expanding battery business. Additionally, a high customer concentration and vulnerability to geopolitical and regulatory shifts in key markets present notable risks to its future performance.

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• Titiminas released high-grade sampling results from the first modern exploration completed at Janchiscocha.
• Initial sampling focused on the Janchiscocha and Londres targets, returning grades of up to 8.29% Mo.
• TITI also identified a ~1km mineralized corridor between the two historic workings, suggesting a district-scale system over a now ~4km trend.

• Titiminas owns the high-grade, past-producing Madre Sierra Project in central Peru, which is fully permitted with established infrastructure.
• TITI plans to quickly advance to a PEA and investment decision by year-end 2027, while generating revenue via trucking ore in the meantime.
• Production will take a phased approach, starting with a 350tpd plant, and expanding to ~1,000tpd+ roughly 2 years later.

• LaFleur Minerals Inc.(LFLRF) Company Sponsored Research Report

• We review the HSLMI universe for potential candidates for the upcoming HSI August 2026 review.
• Three stocks stand out as ADD candidates this cycle, one of them high conviction.
• We also highlight substantial FF and weight changes for CATL.

• Juniper Green Energy Ltd (1831458D IN) is looking to raise about US$187m in its India IPO. The deal has been downsized from its earlier estimated size of over US$310m.
• Juniper Green Energy Limited (JGEL) is an independent power producer (IPP) engaged in the development, construction, operation, and maintenance of utility-scale renewable energy projects.
• In our earlier notes, we have looked at the company’s past performance. In this note, we talk about the RHP updates, peer comp and implied valuations in the price range.

• As Australian iron ore export growth plateaus, Simandou strengthens Rio Tinto’s long-term competitive position through exposure to a world-class, high-grade iron ore asset.
• Kennecott may weigh on near-term cash flows, but Oyu Tolgoi’s strong ramp-up, lower unit costs and a deep pipeline of copper projects keep Rio Tinto’s ambitions firmly on track.
• China’s changing iron ore market, rising labor unrest and CMRG’s growing influence are quietly reshaping the risks facing Rio Tinto.

• As crude oil prices continued to decline, there nonetheless remain elements in the background that could reignite military activity between the U.S. and Iran.         
• One element is the Strait of Hormuz, with Oman now apparently proposing ways to jointly manage with Iran, which we would assume is still not acceptable to the United States.               
• Another element: a potential “off ramp” for the United States, i.e.  a major strike on Pickaxe Mountain, to show that in fact the nuclear issue was the “end game.”          

• Ovintiv reported its second quarter 2026 financial and operational results, highlighting sustained operational efficiency alongside strategic balance sheet strengthening and shareholder returns.
• The company achieved a 4% growth in oil production on a per-share basis without increasing capital or activity, fueled by higher-than-expected production from both the Permian Basin and Montney regions.
• Oil and condensate volumes averaged 206,000 barrels per day, surpassing guidance driven primarily by Permian outperformance, while total production averaged 615,000 BOEs per day.

• The Baker Hughes Company reported its second quarter financial results reflecting continued momentum amid a complex geopolitical environment and evolving energy markets.
• Adjusted EBITDA reached $1.23 billion, surpassing the high end of guidance, driven largely by strong performance in Industrial Energy Technology (IET) and resilience in Oilfield Services and Equipment (OFSE) despite disruptions in the Middle East.
• Adjusted earnings per share were $0.64, up 2% year-over-year, supported by operational strength that offset impacts from divestitures and joint ventures.

• Transformed Business Model: Cleveland-Cliffs has evolved from a pure-play iron ore miner into the largest flat-rolled steel producer in North America through the major acquisitions of AK Steel and ArcelorMittal USA in 2020.
• Vertically Integrated Operations: The company’s key competitive advantage is its vertical integration, controlling the entire production process from its own iron ore mines to finished steel products, which provides greater cost control and supply chain security.
• Challenging Financials but Improving Outlook: After two years of significant net losses, the company has returned to positive free cash flow and is guiding for stronger shipments and improved pricing, supported by a strong order book and the benefits of trade protections.

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• Cleveland-Cliffs reported a second quarter 2026 adjusted EBITDA of $286 million, marking its strongest quarter in two years, alongside a return to positive free cash flow after two years of negative results.
• Despite a sequential decline in shipments largely due to maintenance outages and contract timing, the company expects shipments to surpass 4.3 million tons in the third quarter, supported by a strong order book and extended backlogs.
• Pricing improvements contributed significantly to the quarter’s results, with average selling prices increasing by $76 per ton, driven by favorable hot-rolled coil (HRC) and cold-rolled coil price trajectories.

Highlights

• Exports at record INR 27,312 crore (US$2.87 billion) in FY2025-26

• Market diversification, capacity expansion, resilient demand, turn key

• Robust performance to trigger healthy rubber demand in FY 2026-27

• Q1 FY27 EBITDA rose 35% to INR 756 crore, while normalized PAT increased 42% to INR 499 crore. 
• Welspun is expanding its US nameplate pipe capacity from about 525 KTPA to roughly 1.0 MTPA through HFIW expansion and a new LSAW mill.
• The earnings mix should progressively shift toward protected, higher-spread US production, but FY27 guidance implies margin normalization after an unusually strong first quarter.

• WTI rallied 9.2% last week as Middle East tensions lifted geopolitical risk premiums, before easing diplomacy unwound gains. Positioning suggests markets expect continued volatility rather than a sustained bull market.
• Investor flows favoured traditional energy, with XOP, IXC and XLE attracting inflows, while ICLN saw outflows, highlighting continued rotation away from clean energy toward oil and gas.
• NextEra’s EPS beat masked weaker-than-expected revenue and EBITDA, while stronger operating cash flow and AI-driven electricity demand continued to support its longer-term growth outlook.

• The Australian Strategic Materials (ASM AU) IE opinion is unchanged that Energy Fuels (UUUU US)’s offer (A$0.13 cash and 0.053 UUUU shares per ASM share) is fair and reasonable.
• The IE valued ASM at A$0.490 to A$0.973 per share, which is 30%-39% lower than its previous valuation of A$0.809 to A$1.391 per share, due to production delays at KMP.
• The scheme vote remains low risk. At the last close and for a 28 August payment, the gross/annualised spread was 0.7%/8.2%.

• Boqian New Materials, a high-end electronic metal powders manufacturer, is seeking an A+H listing. GTJA is the sole sponsor.
• We look at the company’s core segments: nickel-based powders for MLCC electrodes and copper-based powders for PV metallization.
• We discussed our preliminary thoughts on the company’s valuation based on A-H premium.

Highlights

• NR production rebounds 9.1% MoM, but remains 16.7% below last year’s level

• Malaysia’s NR imports jump 36.3% MoM as exports tumble 23.1%

• SMR20 rallies to US$2,370/mt before retreating to around US$2,235/mt

• Serica Energy has announced a cash offer of £0.286683 per Pharos share.
• In addition, Pharos shareholders will receive a special dividend of £0.04 per share.
• The aggregate value of the cash and special dividend consideration under Serica’s offer represents a 20.7% premium to the equivalent consideration offered by Ratio Petroleum.

• Equity Metals Corporation offers a compelling investment profile as a junior explorer with a high-grade flagship asset, strong financial discipline, and multiple near-term catalysts.
• The company is advancing its Silver Queen silver-gold project in British Columbia while expanding its portfolio through strategic acquisitions like the Arlington gold-copper-silver property.
• With a proven track record of resource growth, efficient capital deployment, and diversified commodity exposure, Equity Metals is well-positioned to deliver shareholder value in a rising metals market.

• Juniper Green Energy launched India IPO to raise nearly INR 18B. Juniper is a renewable independent power producer (IPP) in India.
• Company intends to use the proceeds for repayment/ prepayment, in full or part, of all or certain outstanding borrowings and for working capital purpose.
• Only investors with a long-term investment horizon might seem interested in the issue given its pending power projects, execution skills and long-term revenue visibility.

• The ₹1,800 crore IPO proceeds, opening for subscription tomorrow on July 30, 2026, will be used entirely as a fresh issue to aggressively deleverage the balance sheet. Approximately 78.44% of the proceeds are earmarked for debt prepayment at the parent and key subsidiaries, addressing the critical bottleneck of interest expenses which flatlined net profit at ₹40.46 crore in FY26 despite an 89.6% revenue jump over two years.
• Juniper’s transition to complex wind-solar hybrid (WSH) and firm and dispatchable renewable energy (FDRE) projects brings acute execution risks. While its 96.80% tender conversion rate positions it as a top player in these auctions, local land-acquisition bottlenecks in Gujarat and Maharashtra, and the technical complexities of sizing battery energy storage systems (BESS) represent major threats to commissioning timelines.
• Despite extreme customer concentration—with GUVNL and MSEDCL contributing 86.06% of FY26 revenue—payment security is remarkably robust. Juniper exhibits a peer-leading receivables cycle of 21.88 days, backed by the fact that 97.68% of its portfolio is contracted with ‘A’ or above rated counterparties, mitigating the historic delays that plague the broader Indian distribution sector.

• Newmont Corp delivered another resilient quarter while maintaining full-year guidance and reinforcing confidence in its path to 6Moz of annual gold production.
• Newmont Corp’s 2Q production better-than-expected Strong free cash flow supports ongoing buybacks and capital return FY27 guidance maintained, capital expenditure weighted to the second half Positive views based on valuation and medium-term production growth

• Ocean Power Technologies, Inc. (NYSE: OPTT) is an integrated provider of ocean intelligence solutions, combining maritime drones, floating power and data systems, and AI-capable data processing.
• This integrated approach addresses critical gaps in maritime domain awareness for defense, offshore energy, and ocean research markets in the US as well as overseas. 
• FY26 marked a transformational year for OPT. Backlog hit a record $19.8 million, up 58% Y/Y, while the qualified sales pipeline grew to $142.3 million. 

• Forrestania Resources Ltd (FRS AU) all-scrip Offer for Zenith Minerals (ZNC AU) is a small M&A deal. Look away now if this is not your bag. 
• There are some intriguing aspects surrounding this transaction – after the Offer was made – which are worthwhile discussing.
• I believe there is a case for FRS misleading shareholders. Right now, the bid proceeds, and the Takeovers Panel is signalling caution as it considers Harvest Lane’s application.

• The FY 2026 result looks good despite the volatile gold price. 
• Channel checks on the customers confirmed no changes in the demand. In fact, the regulatory requirement is severe, a penalty of up to 5% global turnover. 
• The weaker share price represents a buying opportunity rather than a sale. 

• On the 18th May 2026, Australian Strategic Materials (ASM AU)‘s Scheme Booklet was dispatched, with a Scheme Meeting on the 22nd June, and expected implementation on the 7th July.
• The vote was delayed after Energy Fuels (UUUU US) secured DoW financing; then a revised IE assessment was required after Energy Fuels announced a US$1.9bn mine-to-magnet rare-earth platform in Germany.
• The replacement Scheme Booklet is now out, with a Scheme Meeting on the12th August, and expected implementation on the 28th August. The IE (BDO) still says “fair & reasonable“.

• It appears that, for the time being at least, the exchange of military strikes between the U.S. and Iran will pause, although we will see how long this one lasts.       
• President Trump is suggesting that he wishes to give the negotiating process another chance, but weighing heavily is the continued depletion of the U.S. weapons inventory, particularly defensive assets.
• If further depleted, it would reduce the “neutral” Gulf countries’ ability to defend themselves and therefore subject critical oil and gas assets to substantial damage.         

• Refining margins have become the key driver of energy profits as tight fuel markets, limited spare capacity, and geopolitical disruptions reshape the downstream outlook.
• Refiners are capturing outsized profits as product markets remain tighter than crude, with delayed capacity recovery and supply disruptions supporting elevated crack spreads into Q3.
• Refining margins are unlikely to normalise quickly, as refinery disruptions in the Middle East and Russia, coupled with limited spare capacity, continue to constrain global fuel supplies.

• Kemira is strategically pivoting towards profitable growth, with a primary focus on its Water Solutions segment, which is well-positioned to benefit from global trends such as water scarcity and tightening environmental regulations.
• The company maintains strong market positions, ranking #1-3 in water treatment and #2 in pulp and paper chemicals globally, supported by a resilient, diversified business model and deep application expertise.
• Financial performance shows margin resilience despite recent revenue declines from lower volumes; however, investors should monitor raw material cost volatility and competitive pressures from larger, more integrated rivals.

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• My view is that Siemens Energy’s gas earnings are not peaking in 2030.
• The 2031-2034 delivery slots will largely be booked over the next two years, and order pricing is still rising.
• That locks in equipment economics well into the mid 2030s. Services revenue and EBITA should take over as the main driver of growth and margin expansion starting 2030. 

• IFF is undergoing a significant strategic transformation, highlighted by the divestiture of its Food Ingredients business, to simplify its portfolio, reduce debt, and focus on higher-margin core segments: Taste, Scent, and Health & Biosciences.
• Recent financial performance indicates a potential turnaround, with Q1 2026 results showing a return to top-line growth, significant year-over-year improvement in profitability, and a substantial increase in operational cash flow.
• The company operates in a consolidated industry with high barriers to entry, and its competitive advantages are rooted in deep customer integration, extensive R&D capabilities, and a broad, proprietary product portfolio.

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• ASM’s standalone funding viability remains structurally broken, with the flagship Dubbo Project requiring an estimated A$1.5 billion in development capital. STANDALONE survival would require highly dilutive equity raises or an unlikely, massive government grant. BDO’s standalone valuation floor of A$0.81 per share represents a paper-heavy, pre-development asset calculation, while the pre-deal minority market price of approximately A$0.49 per share reflected the cold, cash-strapped reality of the public markets.
• The US$1.9 billion Vacuumschmelze (VAC) acquisition transforms Energy Fuels into a complex “mine-to-magnet” player, but introduces severe operational execution and integration risks. This highly ambitious loop stretches from the Donald Project in Victoria, Australia to the White Mesa Mill in Utah, through the Korean Metals Plant (KMP) in Ochang, and finally to VAC’s plants in Germany and South Carolina. Integrating a commodity uranium producer with a precision specialty metals manufacturer is culturally and operationally fraught, further complicated by Germany’s active national security probe into the deal.
• The August 12, 2026 shareholder vote has a very high probability of passing despite recent stock price dilution. Energy Fuels’ stock took a hit after announcing the dilutive 65.85 million share issuance to Ara Partners for the VAC transaction. However, because ASM’s standalone alternative is a return to a stagnant, sub-scale penny-stock status with an imminent funding crunch, major shareholders like Ian Gandel (13.6% stake) are locked in to approve the transaction.

• Chevron has spent decades building one of the world’s most productive oil operations in Kazakhstan, but the Russia-Ukraine war has now reached the project’s most vulnerable link.
• CEO Mike Wirth recently spoke with Trump administration officials about protecting Chevron’s interests after Ukrainian drones struck four tankers near the Russian Black Sea port of Novorossiysk, including one vessel chartered by the company.
• The attacks restricted crude loadings from the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, or CPC, a critical export system carrying approximately 2% of the world’s daily oil supply.