Financials

• After an 18-month saga, the Burman family has taken control of REL, acquiring 25.16% equity and planning a INR 2,000 crore capital infusion.
• This takeover ends promoter-less governance, injecting fresh strategic capital to transform Religare into a competitive NBFC and drive long-term recovery.
• Investors should now view Religare as a turnaround story, with robust governance reforms, lower debt, and renewed focus on core financial services promising sustainable growth.

• Freshworks’ latest financial performance and strategic initiatives offer a complex picture with both strengths and potential challenges.
• Over the fourth quarter and full fiscal year 2024, the company delivered strong financial results, marking significant improvements in revenue and profit margins compared to prior estimates.
• Freshworks recorded a revenue increase of 22% year-over-year, reaching $194.6 million in Q4 alone, while reporting a notable non-GAAP operating margin of 21%.

• Brookfield has sold a Sydney logistics complex for $210M to Ontario Teachers’, KIC, and Gateway.
• CapitaLand Investment has closed a $130M private credit fund in Korea.
• Sun Hung Kai has bought a $77M residential plot, the cheapest land sale in 11 years in Hong Kong.

• Upstart Holdings Inc. recently reported a strong financial performance for the fourth quarter and full-year 2024, marking significant progress in various aspects of its operations.
• The company demonstrated a noteworthy increase in both origination volume and revenue, reflecting substantial growth compared to previous quarters and the prior year.
• Originations grew by 33% sequentially, and revenue increased by 35% in the same period.

• The CNMC’s provisional report requires BBVA to extend commitments to SMEs for three years instead of 18 months, a condition seen as manageable but opposed by Sabadell’s leadership.
• BBVA’s exchange offer for Sabadell values its shares at €2.37, below the market price of €2.504, implying a 5.3% shortfall, increasing pressure for BBVA to improve its bid.
• The Spanish government opposes the takeover, and political intervention, regulatory hurdles, and a history of failed hostile bank takeovers in Europe could significantly impact the deal’s success.

• APAC investors are welcoming rate cuts, with Hong Kong remaining a buyers’ market, according to Colliers.
• KKR & M&G invest $509M in an Aussie Warehouse Portfolio, while PGIM JV acquires Queensland sheds.
• Vanke partners with government insurers for a $220M housing JV, demonstrating state support in the real estate sector.

• S&P Global reported a robust 2024, evidenced by revenue growth and improved profitability metrics.
• The company reported a 15% increase in revenue, excluding the effect of divested Engineering Solutions in 2023.
• Subscription products grew by 7%.

• 2 Heads of Audit in 1 month with another replacement within 6 months
• Audit head in a bank is a highly sensitive post and the banking regulator recommends a minimum tenure of 3 years for the post
• Internal audit in Axis Bank has become a major concern which should worry investors

• “AI for Science’ is SES AI’s approach to using the latest cutting-edge GNNs and LLMs to augment battery materials discovery.
• “We can actually map all the physical and chemical properties of the small molecules. We did that, and then recently, we expanded to [electrolytes] for any lithium batteries….
• We’re expanding to lithium-ion for robots, drones, and energy storage. We found that this tool itself is actually really powerful. 

• After a minor “disaster” in a secondary placement in December, this morning industrial/infrastructure (including data centres) REIT/etc Goodman Group (GMG AU) announced results and an A$4bn primary offering.
• The large offering comes at a 6.9% discount, and For a combination of reasons, there is a LOT of buying to do with index tracking over the next short while. 
• But that too has complications. Some is immediate. Some a little delayed. A bunch may be supplied by short sellers. There is one easy trade. A few more complicated.

• Goodman Group (GMG AU) is looking to raise around US$2.5bn to partly fund its data centre expansion plans.
• Goodman’s shares have performed exceptionally well over the past year, driven by its pivot towards data centers.
• In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

• The remaining third of Korea’s local securities lending market is moving to digital, potentially sparking a whole new trading landscape.
• Integrating EquiLend with local platforms boosts post-short-selling volume and shifts a large portion of manual trades into the digital space.
• This could spark new algo trading strategies, and with short selling resuming March 31, we’ll need to track how the flow evolves.

• Negara’s attractive valuations, its low PEG ratio and efficiency ratio should drive the share re-rating; pre- and post-provision were flat QoQ, but profitability ratios edged higher over the medium term
• We like Mandiri for its attractive PE multiples and its robust credit quality, despite the 4Q24 returns blip; Mandiri has the second-best efficiency ratio and with further scope for gains
• Rakyat’s high structural cost of risk remains a drag on its post-provision returns, with eroded further in 4Q24; although declining, returns are high but Rakyat valuations are not yet compelling

• Goodman Group went into a trading halt and then announced results and an underwritten equity placement of A$4bn (US$2.54bn) to pursue growth opportunities across logistics and data center operations.
• The stock has dropped since CIC’s stake sale in December but still continues to handily outperform peers.
• There will be some passive buying in the stock at the time of share settlement and more a few days later to mop up around 37% of the offering.

• EFCI Ltd (EFCIL IN) witnessed a robust Q3 & 9M FY25 growth with sequential revenue, EBITDA, and PAT increases; new SM REIT registration and strategic seat expansion initiatives bolster operations.
• Strong financial performance amid market challenges underscores resilience in flexible workspace and real estate sectors, positioning EFC India to capitalize on rising demand and government support.
• Company is planning to add 25000 seats annually, where expecting furniture vertical worth INR 150Crs and Design & Build worth INR 225-250Crs next year.

• ADIA and Hines sell Shanghai Tower for $1.5B to insurer-backed fund, showcasing large-scale real estate transactions.
• Keppel DC REIT sells German data centre at 39% loss from 2019 purchase price, indicating potential challenges in the real estate market.
• TPG offers $65M for Econ Healthcare, Singapore nursing home operator, amidst growing interest in healthcare industry investments.

• Arvind SmartSpaces (ARVSMART IN) posted 149% YoY revenue growth in Q3 FY25 and secured new projects worth RS. 3,850 crore, despite a 20% YoY decline in bookings due to approval delays.
• Improved profitability and strategic project wins underscore its resilience in a dynamic real estate market, driving long-term value despite operational hurdles.
• Company is planning to deploy Rs.500 to Rs. 600 crore in both vertical and horizontal projects over the next six months.

• Danish Compromise Uncertainty: If Banco BPM fails to secure Danish Compromise approval, its CET1 ratio could decline by 268bps, making it a riskier acquisition for UniCredit, potentially jeopardizing the deal.
• UniCredit’s Strategic Dilemma: UniCredit may renegotiate the exchange ratio, withdraw the bid, or pursue Commerzbank instead, as Banco BPM’s Anima acquisition increases capital consumption risks and complicates UniCredit’s strategic plans.
• Market Skepticism: As of February 18, 2025, Banco BPM’s shares trade at €9.04, while UniCredit’s offer values them at €8.47, leading to a +6.7% gross spread.

• Volta has delivered +21.2% 2024 total NAV return, outperforming i) B-rated CLO tranches (+19.2%), ii) US high yield (+8.2%), iii) Euro high yield (+8.6%), and iv) global loans (+7.3%).
• Its performance reflects positive markets and the incremental value added by the manager through its asset selection and portfolio management.
• Looking into 2025, we expect another strong year from CLOs: more market growth (partially driven by loans issued to fund greater PE activity), and stable, if not falling, defaults offsetting some spread tightening and fewer pull to par benefits from loans restructuring.

• Clip Money is a rapidly growing NCR-backed start-up based in Ottawa, Canada, and operating in Canada and the US.
• It is helping physical stores and businesses quickly, safely, and less expensively deposit cash into their bank accounts, as well as replenishing notes and coins for store operations.
• The company uses its proprietary software platform to facilitate cash management, and its network is made up of a network of DropBoxes, NCR ATMs located in retail outlets and a second half roll out at Green Dot locations.

• SRE Holdings Corp (2980 JP) does a business in AI Cloud&Consulting for the real estate, finance, and Life & Healthcare business. Sony Corp (6758 JP) is selling a stake.
• The offering is for about US$50mm assuming a 10% discount today’s close. It is not clear how much this was expected but there is a decent-sized short position. 
• The stock has its ups and downs, and recently decided it liked Q3 earnings and guidance. That bodes well for the offering.

• Small-Cap property developer Soundwill Holdings (878 HK) is currently suspended pursuant to the Takeovers Code
• Soundwill is controlled as to 74.97% by Grace Foo (ED), and her descendants, Wai Ling Chan (deputy chairman), and Hing Tat Chan (chairman). 
• Soundwill is trading at a staggering 0.08x P/B, with the majority of its book value tied up in investment properties.

• Soundwill Holdings (878 HK) has entered a trading halt “pending the release of an announcement relating to inside information and pursuant to the Codes on Takeovers and Mergers.” 
• It is likely that the controlling shareholder (Foo Family Trust), representing 74.94% of outstanding shares, is seeking to launch a privatisation through a Bermuda scheme. 
• While no disinterested shareholder holds a blocking stake, the headcount test necessitates an attractive offer. We estimate a potential offer price range of HK$7.53-19.44.

• ANZ Group Holdings (ANZ AU) is set to announce its First Quarter APS 330 Release on Thursday 20 February 2025.
• Traders can trade the event through 20 February 2025 listed options (monthly expiration). Strategies discussed reflect different expectations of market reactions, with risk implications.
• Historically, ANZ has experienced an average price move of 1.9% following profit announcements. Option markets anticipate a similar move this time.

• National Australia Bank (NAB AU) is set to announce its First Quarter Trading Update on Wednesday 19 February 2025.
• Traders can trade the event through 20 February 2025 listed options (monthly expiration). Strategies discussed reflect different expectations of market reactions, with risk implications.
• Historically, NAB has experienced an average price move of 2.2% following profit announcements. Option markets anticipate a slightly larger move.

• Bank Rakyat Indonesia management painted a relatively positive picture of improvements across its microloan portfolio in 2H2024, with strong growth in recoveries during the year.  
• Loan growth was driven by corporate and consumer loans, as the bank slowed micro and small-sized loan growth with ongoing restructuring, which will continue in 2025 and front-loaded in 1Q2025. 
• Bank Rakyat Indonesia remains unique in its exposure to micro and ultra-micro lending in Indonesia, where growth should resume in 2025. Foreign ownership and valuations stand at 15-year lows. 

• Takeover Interest: KKR proposed a 48.0p per share bid for Assura, a 28.2% premium to its last closing price but a 2.8% discount to its 49.4p NAV.
• Financial Position: Assura reported £157.8M in revenue (+4.92% YoY) and reduced net losses from £119.2M to £28.6M, showing improved operational performance, which could support a sweetened offer.
• With Assura trading at 42.6p against KKR’s 48.0p bid, the gross spread is 12.7%, implying a 74.3% market-implied probability of deal success using a 37.44p break price.

• Unibail announced its FY results, which we view as strong across the board.  Rent is growing and vacancy is coming down
• Unibail has made progress on deleveraging.  The company has ample cash, low cost of borrow and a strong balance sheet
• With de-leveraging on track, investors should focus on growth.  Valuation is attractive

• Alyssa Partners and LGB team up to purchase Tokyo apartment building for $65 million, expanding their real estate portfolio.
• Gaw Capital faces challenges as it defaults on a $100 million loan for a California hotel, highlighting financial struggles in the industry.
• Emperor Group secures a Sai Ying Pun site at a discounted rate of 12%, signaling a strategic investment opportunity in the Hong Kong market. Digital Core REIT strengthens leadership with the appointment of Serene Nah as chairperson, bringing valuable experience from Digital Realty APAC.

• Very low volatility rally with Kospi up 2.63% but still 7% below the 52-week high.
• Implied vols moving in opposition to the rally, dropping 1 point on the week.  
• Call volumes rebounded significantly with the most active Call strike trading more than twice as much as the most active Put strike.

• Friday after the close, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) (8306 JP) announced a partial offer to buy up to 13.026385mm shares (minimum 11.661185mm shs) of rent guarantor Zenhoren (5845 JP). 
• That is 49.6% but an MUFJ sub already owns 1.46%. The offer comes at a 32% premium to last. Two holders with 33.59% of the register have agreed to tender. 
• This will turn the company into a consolidated subsidiary of MUFG under MUFJ Nicos, the group’s consumer credit subsidiary. Shareholder structure matters. Watch the back end.

• USD/JPY more volatile relative to Nikkei, trading in a 2.3% range on the week and historic vol continuing to climb compressing the hv spread.
• Nikkei is trading at the mid-point of the sideways range it’s been in since the end of September.  
• Most heavily traded strikes were at the top and bottom of the sideways range.

• Nifty mired in long downtrend with unfavorable seasonals directly ahead.
• Weak price action, with all 5 days trading lower pulls implied vols higher by 1.5 points.
• We examine the poor seasonal performance heading into the end of the month and recommend a tactical hedge.

• We are gradually building a high-conviction coverage of ideas for the mid and small-caps in the Philippines.
• We set criteria for high ROCE, reasonable growth (10-15% YoY), strong balance sheets, and reasonable capital allocation (dividend yields), all ingredients for being multi-baggers.
• Figaro Coffee (FCG PM) has been added due to its >20% ROCE, 7x PE, and strong growth potential. We will initiate coverage on it shortly with an insight.

• Operating revenue reached JPY128.2bn, a 12.2% YoY increase, driven by growth in financial and real estate businesses.
• Profit attributable to owners decreased 63.0% YoY to JPY6.0bn, impacted by deferred tax liabilities reversal from a merger.
• FY12/25 forecasts JPY135.1bn operating revenue, JPY11.1bn operating profit, and JPY6.5bn profit attributable to owners.

• Zenhoren (5845 JP) announced a partial tender offer and capital and business agreement from Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) (8306 JP). MUFG aims to make Zenhoren a consolidated subsidiary.  
• The offer is for a minimum of 11.7m shares (44.36% ownership ratio) and a maximum of 13.0m shares (49.55% ownership ratio) at JPY1,000, a 31.9% premium to the last close.
• Due to the irrevocable, the minimum acceptance condition requires a minority acceptance rate of 16.6%. This threshold is achievable, as the offer is reasonable.

• The Reserve Bank of Australia is set to announce its Monetary Policy on 18 February. The current RBA rate stands at 4.35% with no change since 2024. 
• The market is expecting a 0.25% rate cut. Options expiring on 20 February provide an instrument to trade this event. 
• Option pricing is in-line with historical S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) moves on days after expected rate changes. Contrarians expecting no change might find value in put options.

• For the second time in 3 weeks, 3D Investment Partners has launched, unannounced, a Partial Tender Offer for pure investment purposes, for a 10-15% stake in a REIT.
• Last time it was NTT UD REIT Investment Corporation (8956 JP). This time it is Hankyu Hanshin REIT, Inc. (8977 JP). 
• The trade last time was to sell NTT UD on the pop and replace with peers. That has worked. The trade is probably the same here. 

• In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for the F100 and F250 indices in the run-up to the March 2025 index rebal event.
• We see up to three M&A-related intra-review changes in the next few months.
• Our latest estimates suggest there could be one regular change for the F100 index and at least two changes for the F250 index during the March 2025 rebalance.

• Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) reported a record-setting financial performance in 2024, marked by notable increases in revenue, profit, and cash flows, despite various economic and market challenges.
• The company’s adjusted earnings per share reached $6.07, representing an 8% year-over-year increase, while total net revenue climbed to $9.3 billion, reflecting a 6% growth when adjusted for its acquisition impact of Black Knight.
• This acquisition contributed to pushing operating income to $5.5 billion, marking a 10% rise.

• Bain Capital acquires worker housing in Singapore for $555M from Blackstone, expanding their real estate portfolio in the region.
• Standard Chartered Marketing Shanghai Office Blocks due to BlackRock default, highlighting the impact of financial decisions on commercial real estate.
• PAG successfully raises $4B for APAC real estate fund, demonstrating investor confidence in the region’s property market despite economic uncertainties.

• Spectral AI is developing an AI-guided predictive medical device that employs multispectral imaging (MSI) to estimate a wound’s capacity to heal.
• The company is pursuing indications in burn and diabetic foot ulcers (DFUs) with the former receiving support from BARDA & other government agencies.
• Spectral is distinguished by its combination of MSI and AI to improve diagnoses.

• WeWork India Management Ltd (1690124D IN), operating independently, has turned profitable and is preparing for an IPO via an OFS, diverging from its troubled global parent.
• The OFS structure, driven by a revenue-sharing model and a focus on enterprise clients, demonstrates strong operational resilience and an asset-light business model.
• Investors can re-assess risk and growth potential as WeWork India’s strategic shift, improved governance, and profitability offer a compelling alternative to its global counterpart as well as other competitor.

• Zenrock addresses critical blockchain interoperability challenges through its distributed Multi-Party Computation (dMPC) technology.
• While existing cross-chain solutions handle significant volumes, they remain vulnerable to security breaches, as evidenced by recent attacks resulting in losses over $965 million.
• Built on zrChain and zrSign, Zenrock’s dMPC network offers a decentralized, trust-minimized solution for cross-chain communication.

• Jack Dorsey’s interest in understanding what was happening in neighborhoods led him to programming
• The original vision for Twitter was simply to be able to see what friends were doing and share updates
• The development of new features on Twitter, such as replies, hashtags, and retweets, was driven by how people were using the platform and their needs for public conversation and sharing information.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• Link REIT’s HK manager is starting a private funds venture in the market, showcasing a new area of investment and growth potential.
• Yanlord is looking to sell a half-stake in an Anson Road project for $240M, indicating a strategic move in their property portfolio.
• Weave Living is expanding its presence in Singapore with 2 new locations, adding a total of 330 units to their portfolio.

• Westpac Banking (WBC AU) is set to announce its 2025 First Quarter Trading Update on 17 February. 
• Options expiring 20 February can provide an indication of the size of the move expected on the day, as well as directional bias.
• The options market expects a 2.1% to 2.6% move in either direction until 20 February, in-line with historic moves. Peers have so far performed positively on reporting days this month.

• Commerzbank’s Strong Standalone Outlook: The bank exceeded 2024 targets, announced a 100% payout ratio by 2028, and aims for €14.2 billion in revenue and 15% RoTE by 2028, reducing the urgency for a sale.
• UniCredit’s Takeover Strategy: UniCredit has secured a 28% synthetic stake in Commerzbank and plans to convert it into equity by mid-2025, with a potential >€20/share bid expected late 2025/early 2026.
• Political and Regulatory Challenges: The German government (12% owner), labor unions, and local politicians oppose the deal, citing financial sovereignty concerns, making a near-term takeover highly uncertain despite UniCredit’s strategic push.

• Grandy House’s cumulative Q3 FY03/25 sales reached JPY40.0bn, with operating profit at JPY713mn, and net income at JPY218mn.
• The Real Estate Sales segment saw YoY growth, while Pre-cut Parts faced declines due to weak housing starts.
• Total assets decreased to JPY69.9bn, driven by reduced inventories; total liabilities fell to JPY45.4bn.

• Our weighted metrics of share valuations, capital adequacy and credit quality feed into an investment valuation matrix; we look for opportunities where the risks are well discounted in current valuations
• We stick with Hana Financial for its attractive valuations, PEG and equity risk premia; there is potential for management to deliver on its Value-Up plan over the medium term
• Woori is the stand-out in terms of our matrix; this is based on valuation, PEG ratio, credit quality and its improving pre- and post-provision returns along with efficiency ratio

• Key F3Q25 takeaways include: 1) while we expect loan originations to remain limited in the near term, the pending approval of the Public Stockholder Enhancement Transactions likely drives sustainable growth in volumes over time 2) the recently announced acquisition of Mercantial Bank extends the company’s custody services, with a focus on higher-fee digital assets, thereby further diversifying BENF’s revenue base and 3) our lower earnings outlook primarily reflects OpEx generally consistent with F325 run-rates combined with a flatter revenue trajectory, with growth mostly dependent on reaccelerating loan originations.
• While we still see considerable upside potential for the stock over time, we recognize a meaningful upward revaluation likely necessitates sustained growth in loan origination volumes driving an inflection in profitability.
• That said, BENF’s Tangible Book Value (TBV) per share of ~$1.15 likely provides downside support for the stock.

• Mercuria Investment Co., Ltd. reported a 4.7% YoY decline in operating revenue to JPY5.6bn, with gross profit rising 12.2% YoY.
• Recurring profit decreased 23.9% YoY to JPY1.2bn, affected by increased SG&A expenses and investment losses in fund investments.
• FY12/25 earnings forecast projects operating revenue of JPY6.4–9.1bn and a dividend forecast of JPY22.0 per share.

• Consolidated net operating revenue was JPY18.2bn, down 15.0% YoY, up 17.7% QoQ, with commissions received at JPY7.9bn.
• US segment net operating revenue increased 1.8% YoY, decreased 1.1% QoQ, with SG&A expenses at USD59.1mn.
• Crypto Asset segment net trading income rose 121.2% YoY, 140.6% QoQ, with SG&A expenses at JPY6.3bn.

• The Company which designs, manufactures and supplies critical components, modules, systems and associated services to the energy, medical and industrial sectors has today announced that its subsidiary Booth Industries, has secured a new £4.5m contract to supply pressure-rated fire doors for HS2.
• The contract expands upon Booth Industries’ involvement in the HS2 project, following the £36m contract secured in September 2020 to supply cross passage doors for the London-to-West Midlands segment of the route.
• Booth will begin mass production of the cross-passage sliding doorsets in its 600m², production cell during 2025. 

• Reportedly, Ingenia Communities (INA AU) and Lifestyle Communities (LIC AU) –  companies which provide low-cost housing needs for working, semi-retired, and/or retired people – are mulling a merger.
• Part of the rumourmill pivots off of the fact Lifestyle will release its 1H25E results after market on the 24th Feb, shortly ahead of Ingenia’s own release the following morning.
• Lifestyle’s share price remain 25% adrift of levels shortly ahead of a July 2024 ABC report alleging excessive exit fees. 

• Nearing the end of the review period, we expect two changes for the iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) (FXI US) ETF in March.
• Guotai Junan Securities (2611 HK) is a high probability add while China Tourism Group Duty Free (1880 HK) is a high probability delete.
• ZTE Corp H (763 HK) is a potential inclusion currently and could replace China Coal Energy Co H (1898 HK) as long as it stays in inclusion zone.

• Granular data from DBS shows worsening credit metrics in Greater China and in Hong Kong.
• We use DBS and other banks, as a window on credit metrics for China banks and HK local banks.
• The NPL ratio for its HK business moved from 1.1% to 1.7% YoY, while Pillar 3 data shows sharp rise in New NPLs in 2H24

• Banco BPM raises offer for Anima to €7.00 per share, securing over 43% shareholder support. Shareholders will vote on February 28, with deal completion expected in mid-2025, pending regulatory approvals.
• Strategic acquisition boosts Banco BPM’s non-interest income to 50% of total revenues and strengthens its wealth management and insurance business, reinforcing its defense against UniCredit’s €10 billion takeover attempt.
• Market assigns a 92% probability of deal completion. Shareholders are advised to accept, as failure to tender may result in lower liquidity.

• WeWork India Management Ltd (1690124D IN)  (WIML) is looking to raise about US$450m in its upcoming India IPO. The bookrunners for the deal are JMFin, ICICI, Jefferies, Kotak, 360 One.
• WIML was established in 2016 under the name, “Halosaur Bengaluru Private Limited” and is backed by Embassy Group. It is one of the leading premium flexible workspace operators.
• WIML has been the largest operator by total revenue in the past three Fiscals, according to the CBRE Report.

• AIG has completed efforts to reposition itself as a leader in the insurance industry
• The company has a renewed strategy for growth and improved financial performance
• A strong leadership team and clear vision for the future position AIG to deliver value for customers and shareholders

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• 2025 is off to a tough start. Our call on boring or scary price action seems to be holding up.
• Bitcoin remains boring and is range-bound between $106k and $91k.
• Altcoins have been scary, with the average sector down 25%+. Sector Performance for Jan 2025.

• LaSalle appoints Japan, Korea-based APAC Co-Heads as Tang heads to Rava, highlighting leadership changes within the company.
• Dash Living’s expansion in Japan to 19 locations through partnerships with BlackRock and Greystar reflects their growth strategy in the region.
• Swire Properties expecting a $103M loss as Pacific Place rents drop 16% due to markdowns, showcasing the impact of market changes on the company.