Financials

• Samsung Life Insurance (032830 KS) and Samsung Fire & Marine Insurance (000810 KS) plan to sell about 278 billion won of Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) in block deal sales.
• A total of 5 million shares of Samsung Electronics shares that are expected to be sold in this block deal sale represents 0.1% of Samsung Electronics’ outstanding shares.
• If Samsung Life Insurance is able to sell 4.256 million shares of Samsung Electronics for 236.4 billion won, this would represent 1.3% of Samsung Life Insurance’s market cap. 

• Paragon REIT (PGNREIT SP) announced a privatisation proposal from Cuscaden Peak at S$1.0033 per unit (S$0.98 cash per unit and the 2H FY2024 distribution of S$0.0233 per unit).  
• The offer price is attractive compared to historical trading ranges, peer multiples and precedent privatisations.  It represents an all-time high. 
• No disinterested shareholder holds a blocking stake. At the current price and for an end-of-May payment, the gross/annualised spread was 1.3%/4.6%. 

• Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA AU) is set to announce its 2025 Half Year Results on 12 February.
• Option prices suggest a 2.4% move in either direction, which is less than the historic move of 3.4% over the past six announcements.
• Traders can trade the event through 13 February 2025 listed options (weekly expiration).

• NAV of Industrivarden (INDUC SS) was c. SEK 160 bn (SEK 370/share) on December 31. NAV increased by 6% during FY 2024. 5-Y total return 78% (OMX30, 64%).
• Industrivärden C shares are trading at a 3.9% discount to NAV (vs. 7.4% average for last 5-years). It seems risky to bet on a further discount reduction, rather a reversal.
• My target NAV is SEK 171 bn. My TP for the C shares of Industrivärden, assuming a 5% discount to NAV, is SEK 376.5 (4.5% downside).

• Back on the 5th November, Get Nice Holdings (64 HK) (GNH) announced a scrip Offer, by way of a Scheme, for 72.99%-held Get Nice Financial Group Ltd (1469 HK) (GNF).
• The (then) HK$1.116/share implied scrip price & divvy compared to a book value of HK1.736/share. and net cash of ~HK$1.00/share. At the 22nd January EGM, GNH shareholders backed the Offer.
• The Scheme Doc is now out, with a Court Meeting on the 7th March,  with new GNH shares trading on the 7th April. The IFA (Veda Capital) botched its peer analysis.

• AH Premia are lower over the last two weeks spanning the CNY holiday. HK stocks up. H/A discounts slightly narrower on average. 
• The past two weeks saw Consumer and Financial AH premia drop. Utilities, energy, and Industrials widened slightly on average. Narrow premia AH dropped more than wide premia.
• AH Premia on average at a new five year low. Some may be foreigners returning to HK. Some may be just drift. Many wide spreads still exist.

• Get Nice Financial Group Ltd (1469 HK)’s IFA opines that Get Nice Holdings (64 HK) (GNH)’s offer (4 GNH shares per GNF share + HK$0.50 dividend) is fair and reasonable. 
• The GNF vote required approval of the scheme by at least 75% of disinterested shareholders (<10% of all disinterested shareholders rejection). The vote is low risk.   
• The spread remains high as GNH is not shortable. At the last close, for a 3 April payment, the gross/annualised spread was 10.2%/89.3%.

• Cuscaden Peak, the sponsor of Paragon REIT (PGNREIT SP) and 61.5% shareholder, has offered S$0.98/unit, in cash; or S$1.003/unit, a 7% premium to NAV, when including FY24’s S$0.0233/unit cash distribution.
• The Offer is by way of a Scheme. The Offer price has NOT been declared final. A switch option into a voluntary Offer is afforded should a competing Offer emerge.
• Looks pretty clean. Assuming mid-late May payment, pay up to S$0.97/share for a 4%/15% gross/annualised spread. It may trade tighter given the early distribution payment.

• Long gold has been a winning strategy over the last two calendar years. Gold futures has clocked a 125% increase since start of 2019 until now.
• Gold has seen its strongest rally yet over the last two years, breaking through previous all-time highs with minimal retracement.
• GLD ETF has delivered a 7.4% price returns over the last month and an 8% upside YTD in 2025 so far.

• Ethereum leads in tokenization, but Solana and Sui are gaining traction with high-speed trading and alternative L1 adoption. Institutional multi-chain strategies may drive further competition.
• Ethereum’s L2s enhance scalability, but fee revenue is diversifying as Alt-L1s grow. Base shows how L2s can leverage Ethereum’s security while competing ecosystems challenge its dominance.
• TradFi is embracing blockchain, with stablecoins and tokenization set to expand. BlackRock’s BUIDL fund on Ethereum highlights its role as the preferred settlement layer for institutional finance.

• Globe Life Inc. faced a share price decline and negative report from Fuzzy Panda in April 2024 due to concerns about bad agents and a kickback scheme
• Despite SEC inquiry and potential cyber-attack, Globe Life showed strong performance in third quarter
• Company facing challenges such as whistleblower lawsuit dismissal and extortion by hackers, but outlook remains positive with stock trading at a discount to long-term levels

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• In 1H FY06/25, sales were JPY8.0bn (-30.3% YoY) and operating profit was JPY101mn (-87.9% YoY), with a recurring loss of JPY232mn.
• Real Estate business sales were JPY7.8bn (-30.7% YoY) and segment profit was JPY865mn (-37.6% YoY) in 1H FY06/25.
• Total assets at end-Q2 FY06/25 were JPY57.2bn, liabilities increased to JPY42.4bn, and net assets were JPY14.8bn.

• Clip Money is a rapidly growing NCR-backed start-up based in Ottawa, Canada, and operating in Canada and the US.
• It is helping physical stores and businesses quickly, safely, and less expensively deposit cash into their bank accounts, as well as replenishing notes and coins for store operations.
• The company uses its proprietary software platform to facilitate cash management, and its network is made up of a network of DropBoxes, NCR ATMs located in retail outlets and a second half roll out at Green Dot locations.

• On Friday, SBI Sumishin Net Bank (7163 JP) fell 12.5% in the last 90 minutes of trading. This was not due to their Q3 earnings release (out 30 January).
• It seemed due to investor disappointment in the content of the NTT earnings call. As discussed in the forked insight, there had been speculation NTT would buy SBI Sumishin.
• Investors had thought NTT would pay more than 28x earnings and a ¥600bn premium to book to buy the business. At 23.7x Mar25e EPS and 4.1x book, it’s still expensive.

• Nikkei down 2.66% on Monday with Implied vol very reactive to the move jumping almost 3 points.
• USD/JPY dropped 2.35% for the week, Nikkei fared better only losing 1.96%.
• Open interest in the Nikkei dominated by Puts with 2 outstanding for every 1 Call.

• Recurring revenue increased by JPY4.8bn YoY to JPY49.7bn, driven by underwriting, investment, and other revenue growth.
• Recurring profit rose JPY517mn YoY to JPY3.8bn, aided by decreased claims, agency fees, and SG&A expenses.
• Combined ratio improved by 0.6pp YoY to 93.5% due to better operating expense and E/I loss ratios.

• Implied vols adjusted downward by 3 points and now at 33rd percentile over the past year as Nifty ekes out a 40 bp gain.
• Seasonal trends not favorable for Nifty in the 2nd half of the month.
• Expect that vol down / spot up will re-assert itself with implied vols having normalized.

• Bank Syariah Indonesia Tbk PT (BRIS IJ) reported 11% QoQ net profit in 4Q24
• Credit costs are down nearly 75% QoQ and annually, there are improving figures
• Fee income growth is relatively new, ROA expansion can continue, to even >3% from this

• The TFTC approved in early January, The TFTC said market power would be limited and competition unrestricted. Another CNA article suggested the two FHCs were completing employee placement plans.
• Apparently, as of a month ago, only the Shin Kong Bank employee settlement plan had not been completed but the FSC has rules about that. Consideration likely proceeds.
• There are specific rules about how these things are dealt with. In the meantime, the spread – still wide – is narrowing.

• Bank Mandiri saw a slower finish to the year despite strong loan growth and solid CASA growth, as expenses rose in 4Q2024 and slower recoveries impacted non-interest income.  
• Strong loan growth was driven by corporate and commercial lending with diverse sector exposure, as it continues to exploit wholesale relationships rather than increase risk, supported by CASA growth.
• The recent correction looks overdone given the outlook for 2024 looks positive, with loans expected to follow deposit growth in 2025, with credit costs under control. Valuations below historic levels.

• KKR and Gaw are in talks for a $660M sale of Hyatt Regency Tokyo to Japan Hotel REIT, potentially reshaping the hospitality market.
• Singapore worker housing rents have surged by 10.8% in the second half of 2024, attributed to a significant increase in labor influx.
• Despite falling rent trends in APAC office markets, Australia and Japan have shown resistance, according to Knight Frank’s report.

• Operating revenue increased by JPY4.3bn YoY, driven by deferred installment income, despite a decline in transaction volume.
• Consolidated operating expenses rose JPY8.4bn YoY due to higher bad-debt expenses and finance costs amid interest rate hikes.
• Overseas business saw a segment loss of JPY2.5bn, with increased bad debt expenses and declining transaction volumes in Vietnam and Indonesia.

• Revenue and profit declined YoY due to the absence of large property sales and hotel sales in FY03/24.
• The company expects to achieve its full-year forecast, with significant property sales concentrated in Q4 FY03/25.
• Hotel operation business saw a significant YoY increase in revenue and profit due to rising occupancy rates and ADR.

• Operating revenue increased to JPY16.5bn, driven by origination-related, recurring, and assets and other revenue growth.
• Operating expenses rose to JPY14.2bn due to finance costs, personnel, and commission expenses, despite cost-cutting measures.
• Pre-tax profit reached JPY2.3bn, with a 14.0% margin, as revenue and profit rose year-over-year.

• FY12/24 revenue increased 42.7% YoY, with operating profit up 120.5% and recurring profit up 217.2%.
• Operating Lease business revenue rose 47.5% YoY, contributing 90.8% of total revenue, with equity sales at JPY113.1bn.
• FY12/25 forecast includes revenue of JPY36.9bn, operating profit of JPY18.1bn, and a 50% dividend payout ratio.

• Aon plc’s performance in the fourth quarter of 2024 reflects a period of strategic execution and financial growth.
• The company reported a 6% organic revenue growth for the full year and a notable 17% total revenue increase, driven significantly by its successful 3×3 Plan.
• Operating income saw a robust 17% rise, contributing to a 10% increase in adjusted earnings per share.

• Samsung Life’s value-up disclosure: we should expect it with Q4 earnings on the 20th—every local desk and media outlet is eyeing that date.
• Unlike Samsung Life, Samsung Securities is tight-lipped. Earnings are set for Feb 14, but expect the value-up announcement after Feb 20, likely before early March and AGM season.
• Tomorrow’s unlikely for Samsung Card’s value-up disclosure. It’s holding off until the card fee recalculation is finalized—likely after February or before mid-March, ahead of AGM season.

• CPPTL, a real estate trust, is liquidating 121 JC Penney-leased properties, potentially offering 28%-45% upside by 2025.
• Major shareholders, primarily former JC Penney creditors, own 70% of CPPTL shares, indicating potential eagerness to exit.
• CPPTL properties are marketed with Newmark; initial offers expected by February 26, targeting 7%-8% cap rates.

• In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Sino-Ocean
• In the US, the ISM services index declined to 52.8 (54.0 e / 54.0 revised p) in January. This was driven by decreases in the new orders and prices paid components, albeit the employment component edged up to 52.3 (51.3 revised p). Separately, the January (final) S&P services PMI fell to 52.9 (56.8 p), with the composite PMI dropping to 52.7 (55.4 p).
• Meanwhile, the trade deficit expanded to USD 98.4 bn (USD 96.8 bn e / USD 78.9 bn revised p), the second largest deficit on record. Exports decreased 2.6% m-o-m to USD 267 bn, while imports jumped 3.5% to a record high of USD 365 bn due to import front-loading ahead of expected new tariffs.

• Government capex is revised to Rs. 10.2 lakh crore—8.3% below target—with significant PMAY allocation cuts amid revised funding for affordable housing projects.
• Lower capex and reduced PMAY funds signal execution challenges in housing, potentially straining Housing and Urban Development Corporation Limited (HUDCO IN)’s growth targets despite its strong loan expansion plans.
• Short-Term funding cuts create uncertainty, but HUDCO’s strategic focus on low-risk lending and ambitious loan targets suggests a promising long-term outlook.

• TSE-Listed companies are asked to file “Management Conscious of Capital Cost/Stock Price” awareness reports/policies. Many have. Some are still working on it. And policies change, and CGR reports are updated.
• 171 new CGRs were filed since 31-Dec-2024. Our tools show every report, links to every document, and now a new diff file tool. Input a name, see the changes.
• A surprising number of smaller companies have yet to file a MCoCC/SP Awareness report. As cross-holdings get sold down, I expect they will become activists targets in 2025.

• One exceptionally crowded data room as PE outfit Brookfield Capital joins Bain Capital and CC Capital with a matching A$4.60/share NBIO, via a Scheme, for Insignia Financial (IFL AU).
• Brookfield’s Offer may include a scrip alternative in an unlisted bid vehicle, subject to caps.  As with Bain and CC Capital’s Offers, Brookfield’s Offer would ultimately require FIRB signing off.
• And similar to Bain and CC Capital, Brookfield has been afforded a limited period of access to certain non-public information on a non-exclusive basis.

• All markets surveyed here tend to see price weakness along with increased volatility in the second half of February. 
• SP500 was the only market for which realized vol in January was greater than implied at the end of December.
• Gold, SP500 and SPASX200 have all gone over 450 days without a 10% correction. Nifty moving in opposite direction, 127 days without a 10% rally.

• Strong 2024 Financial Performance: Santander reported a record €12.57 billion net profit, exceeding expectations, with 8% revenue growth (€62.2B) and 12% net income growth (€36.18B), boosting RoTE to 16.3%.
• The buyback 13.3% of market cap, could raise EPS, improve valuation, and support share price, as it represents 15% of ADTV over two years (or 80 days worth of ADTV).
• Santander maintains strong capital and profitability, with a CET1 ratio of 12.8%, RoTE of 16.3%, and an efficiency ratio of 41.8%, reinforcing sustained long-term value creation.

• SK Finance Limited (0893736D IN)  is planning to raise about US$260m through its upcoming India IPO.
• SK Finance Ltd (SFL) is a non-deposit non-banking finance company middle layer (NBFC ML) operating in two main verticals, vehicle financing and financing for micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs).
• As per CRISIL Report, the company was the fastest growing player in the vehicle and MSME financing segment among its peers, based on AUM growth over FY21-23.

• CapitaLand Investment secures Osaka site for $700M data centre project, expanding presence in Asia’s growing tech market.
• Singapore’s Temasek boosts investment in CenterSquare’s commercial real estate debt fund with $200M injection for growth.
• Gordon Tang faces setback as Suntec REIT buyout likely to fail with extended deadline, raising uncertainty in real estate market.

• In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Greentown China, Health and Happiness (H&H)
• In the US, the December JOLTS job openings unexpectedly declined to 7.6 mn (8.0 mn e / 8.2 mn revised p). The JOLTS lay-off and quits rates were stable at 1.1% and 2.0%, respectively, in December.
• Treasuries rallied yesterday, with yields declining 4-5 bps across the curve, on account of the weaker-than-expected JOLTS report.

• In Q3 FY03/25, consolidated sales were JPY4.5bn (+19.8% YoY), with operating profit of JPY173mn and net income of JPY97mn.
• Business Production segment sales reached JPY3.8bn (+10.3% YoY), with operating profit of JPY568mn (+15.2% YoY).
• Venture Capital segment sales were JPY726mn (+117.4% YoY), with operating profit of JPY405mn, reversing prior losses.

• Revenue decreased by 2.1% YoY, while net income attributable to owners rose 50.0% YoY due to extraordinary gains.
• Contract execution volume increased significantly in real estate and capital investment domains, contributing to overall growth.
• SG&A expenses rose 8.6% YoY, driven by human resource investments; capital cost increased 89.0% YoY due to interest rates.

• 7 years ago I wrote a big piece titled TOC’s BIGLY Buyback Makes It a Takeout Target. I thought the shareholder structure and buyback plans looked like a creeping takeover. 
• In December 2017, Effissimo had sold a very large stake back to the company. I wrote in March 2018. 10mos later they did another and I wrote again.
• Since then they’ve bought back a bit more. Today they are buying back another 5%. It still looks like a potential takeover.

• After the market close on 4 February, several local news outlets reported that Samsung Life Insurance is considering on incorporating Samsung Fire & Marine Insurance as a subsidiary.
• Share cancellation by Samsung F&M Insurance would lead to an increase in ownership stake of Samsung F&M Insurance by Samsung Life Insurance which would violate the current Insurance Business Act. 
• It is unlikely for Samsung Life Insurance to sell some of its stake in Samsung F&M Insurance, but Samsung Life Insurance could increase its stake in Samsung F&M Insurance.

• Religare Enterprises (RELG IN)’s saga intensifies as CEO Rashmi Saluja sues her own company amid takeover bids by the Burman family, amid insider trading allegations.
• The battle, initially a takeover bid, has evolved into an ED probe, halting shareholder meetings and raising serious governance concerns.
• Everything lies in the hands of Religare’s shareholder since to gain the helm again Rashmi needs more than 50% votes in the upcoming meeting on 7-Feb.

• Gaw Capital secures $260M investment for Hong Kong CSI Properties, demonstrating confidence in the real estate market.
• CapitaLand Ascott Trust makes significant acquisition with purchase of 2 Japanese hotels worth $140M, expanding their portfolio.
• Hines JV embarks on condo complex development on Delhi’s Birla Mills site, reflecting growing investment interest in India’s real estate sector.

• On 4 February, Hana Financial (086790 KS) announced a share buyback and cancellation of 400 billion won worth of treasury shares, representing 2.3% of its market cap. 
• Hana Financial plans to achieve a total shareholder return ratio of 50% by 2027. Its total shareholder return ratio increased to 37.8% in 2024, up 4.8% YoY. 
• Hana Financial’s total cash dividend per common share is 3,600 won in 2024 (up 5.9% YoY). Hana Financial’s total shareholder return ratio increased to 37.8% in 2024, up 4.8% YoY. 

• Marsh & McLennan Companies, a global leader in professional services, closed 2024 with substantial financial growth, registering an 8% revenue increase to $24.5 billion and a 7% underlying revenue growth.
• The company reported an 11% expansion in adjusted operating income, reaching $6.2 billion against a backdrop of a complex global market.
• The year’s achievements were attributed not just to core business growth but also to an aggressive acquisition strategy, including a record $9.4 billion in acquisitions with a pivotal $7.75 billion deal to acquire McGriff.

• CPKF’s 2024 fourth quarter net earnings increased $2.1 million, or 236%, to $3.0 million year over year, while diluted EPS rose $0.45, or 235%, to $0.64.
• This was better than our estimate, which had called for a $1.6 million increase in net earnings to $2.5 and a $0.35 increase in diluted EPS to $0.54.The major reasons for the fourth quarter’s $2.1 million increase in net earnings versus the prior-year quarter were a $1.2 million, or 11%, increase in net interest income and a $1.0 million, or 22%, rise in total noninterest income.
• For the year, CPKF posted net income of $11.4 million, or $2.42 per diluted share, up $1.3 million, or 13%, from the $10.1 million, or $2.15 per diluted share, posted in 2023.

• Once Samsung F&M burns treasury shares, Samsung Life’s stake hits 16.93%. If they avoid a subsidiary, they’ll need to dump ~817K shares. Today’s ruling makes that move much less likely.
• Samsung Life’s value-up announcement could be major, likely dropping around their earnings call on February 20, with solid intel backing this move.
• The balance of dividends vs. buybacks, plus Samsung Life’s 10% stake ceiling, will drive volatility for Samsung Electronics. Samsung Life’s value-up release, before Samsung Electronics’, will boost market clarity.

• On the 25th November, online trading player SelfWealth Ltd (SWF AU) entered into a SID with Bell Financial (BFG AU) at A$0.25/share after outbidding AxiCorp Financial Services.
• Now Singaporean-based wealth manager Svava has tabled a non-binding A$0.28/share Offer, in cash, by way of a Scheme. Svava also holds an effective blocking stake – 18.8% of shares out. 
• SelfWealth said Svava’s proposal “while indicative and non-binding, could be reasonably considered to become a superior proposal.” BFG needs to step up. 

• Nifty has been in a prolonged downtrend, currently 4 months in duration and clipping 10.3% off the index. This is the second longest decline since 2007.
• When looked at vs the extent of this decline, implied vol is at the bottom of its historical range and historic vol also quietest in a down-move since 2007.
• Implied vol is trading at or above peak levels seen on historic vol since the decline started and implied remains negatively correlated to movements in spot.

• This week we add in some additional graphs and commentary highlighting USD/JPY vs Nikkei 225.
• Implied vols were very reactive to spot to open the week with Nikkei dropping almost 1% on Monday.
• Heavier volume on the down days with Puts making up 57.8% of the total weekly volume.

• The Fed kept policy rates unchanged as expected, but Chair Powell’s press conference provided key insights on the Fed’s stance
• The Fed’s focus on inflation and asymmetric reaction function suggests a possible delay in further rate cuts
• Range-bound rate environment post-Fed meeting favors short gamma strategies for volatility sellers, while yield curve trading strategies may lack carry opportunities

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• Moon River announced it will now be trading on the OTCQB in the US under the symbol MRIVF.
• It also announced that its shares have received DTC Eligibility.
• We provide a rehash of our investment thesis on Moon River.

• Sun Life Financial may face challenges in its U.S. Group Benefits business, particularly in dental and stop-loss margins, as suggested by new information for the upcoming earnings report
• Negative readthroughs from other insurers in the industry and potential changes in Medicaid spend under a Republican administration could impact SLF’s stock
• Despite trading at a high multiple, SLF’s stock may face downside risk based on the current outlook, with a potential mid-teens % downside in a bear case scenario

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• Companies in India have disclosed their shareholding pattern as of end-December in January. There are companies with significant float changes from end-September and/or end-June.
• The changes in free float could be reflected in domestic and global indices over the next few weeks and months resulting in action from passive trackers.
• Depending on the date that the shareholding was published, there could be 13 stocks with passive inflows from global trackers while 4 could see passive outflows in February.

• We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
• Highest spreads: Chuoh Pack Industry (3952 JP), Giga Prize (3830 JP), Sanyo Special Steel (5481 JP), Ascot Corp (3264 JP), Lifestyle China (2136 HK), Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP). 
• Lowest spreads: Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP), Avjennings Ltd (AVJ AU), Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP), Macromill, Inc (3978 JP), Millennium & Copthorne Hotels Nz (MCK NZ). 

• A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
• ECM developments: LG CNS (LGCNSZ KS) seeks to raise up to US$837 million, and Guming Holdings (GUM HK) seeks to raise US$300 million.
• Event-Driven developments: NTT UD REIT Investment Corporation (8956 JP), Ascot Corp (3264 JP), Giga Prize (3830 JP), Sanyo Special Steel (5481 JP), Lifestyle China (2136 HK), Dada Nexus (DADA US).