Financials

• Softbank Group (9984 JP) went up >10% on Wednesday 22nd of January, after announcing a 500B USD venture with OpenAI and Oracle to build US AI infrastructure
• Based on our model reading, the stock is now overbought, but it could go higher rallying on the current frenzy
• Check the QUANTCHART below to find out how high the stock could go before stalling or pulling back.

• The Bank of Nova Scotia (Scotiabank) released its fourth quarter results for 2024, indicating a year of both progress and challenges as the institution implements its new enterprise strategy aimed at sustainable, profitable growth and maximizing shareholder value.
• The bank’s 2024 results reflect modest earnings growth, consistent with its expectations and guidance shared during its Investor Day.
• On the positive side, Scotiabank reported progress in increasing primary client numbers, an essential element of its growth strategy.

• HDB Financial Services (HDBFS) is looking to raise around US$1.5bn in its upcoming India IPO.
• HDBFS is a leading retail-focused non-banking financial company (NBFC) in India, in terms of total gross loan book size, according to the CRISIL Report.
• In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

• Fifth Third Bancorp’s third-quarter 2024 earnings highlight a performance characterized by stability, strategic investments, and a focus on balanced growth in a dynamic economic environment.
• The bank reported an earnings per share (EPS) of $0.78 or $0.85 after excluding certain non-recurring items, outperforming previous guidance.
• With a return on equity of 12.8%, Fifth Third has positioned itself as a leader among its peers.

• PNC Financial Services Group, a major financial institution in the U.S., reported solid financial performance for Q4 2024 and for the entire fiscal year.
• The company generated a net income of $1.6 billion for the fourth quarter, bringing the annual total to $6 billion, or $13.74 per share.
• During the year, PNC benefited from fixed asset repricing, which substantially boosted its net interest income despite the lower demand for loans.

• Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA) reported its third-quarter earnings for 2024, presenting a financial snapshot that highlights both strong performance and areas of concern.
• The bank achieved a net attributable profit of EUR 2,627 million, marking a 26% increase compared to the same quarter last year, albeit a 6% decline from the previous quarter’s record numbers.
• A notable achievement in this quarter was the tangible book value per share plus dividends, which rose by 16% year-over-year, showcasing BBVA’s capacity for generating shareholder value despite currency depreciation challenges, especially from the Mexican peso.

• Bank of New York Mellon’s (BNY) recent financial performance demonstrates notable achievements while also revealing areas that require attention.
• In 2024, the company reported record-breaking revenue and net income, with revenue reaching $18.6 billion, a 5% increase year-over-year, and net income climbing to $4.3 billion.
• These figures correspond to a strong return on tangible common equity of 23%.

• First Citizens BancShares recently released its third-quarter 2024 earnings, highlighting both positive developments and challenges.
• The adjusted earnings per share for the quarter came in at $45.87, supported by a resilient net interest margin despite declining accretion income.
• Positively, the company reported stability and modest growth in its deposit base, especially within the commercial segment linked to the innovation economy.

• HDB Financial Services is looking to raise around US$1.5bn in its upcoming India IPO.
• HDBFS is a leading retail-focused non-banking financial company (NBFC) in India, in terms of total gross loan book size, according to the CRISIL Report.
• In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.

• M&T Bank Corp.’s latest financial performance offers a multifaceted perspective on its current standing and future trajectory.
• Examining both positive and negative aspects of the company’s results reveals a complex financial landscape.
• On the positive side, M&T Bank demonstrated a steady performance over the fourth quarter and the full year 2024.

• We might see a liquidity crunch post-listing, with tighter regulations and mandatory holding drying up liquidity, causing more volatile price swings.
• Big local players with heavy lock-ups will take a large allocation, creating significant overhang risk at the six-month mark. Stronger IPO eligibility boosts costs, pushing funds toward riskier trades.
• Overall, this feels like a quick fix. Rather than focusing on long-term market improvements, we should focus on the new pricing patterns likely to emerge in the short term.

• In this insight, we take a look at the Potential ADDs/DELs for the BSE SENSEX, BSE 100, and BSE 200 Indices in the June 2025 index rebal event.
• As things stand, there could be two index changes for the SENSEX index.
• There could be two ADDs/DELs for the BSE 100 Index and four ADDs/DELs for the BSE 200 Index.

• Henderson sells Kowloon project to Miramar Hotel for $400M in a strategic move to shift focus and secure a profitable deal.
• CapitaLand shifts Tan to commercial REIT and hires Yong to lead Malaysia Trust, showing active leadership changes within the company.
• CapitaLand India Trust initiates $54M Hyderabad IT Park revamp, signaling a significant investment in the Indian real estate market.

• JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s latest financial results reveal a robust performance for the fourth quarter of 2024.
• The firm reported net income of $14 billion with earnings per share (EPS) of $4.81 on revenue of $43.7 billion, reflecting a year-on-year revenue increase of 10%.
• The return on tangible common equity (ROTCE) was a solid 21%.

• Citigroup has released its fourth quarter earnings for 2024, showcasing a notable rise in net income by almost 40% to $12.7 billion for the full year, indicating positive momentum across key business segments.
• This performance was coupled with a revenue increase of 5% excluding divestitures, supported by a 17% uptick in fee revenue, and an efficiency ratio improvement by 340 basis points, which highlights the company’s operational improvements.
• However, certain macroeconomic challenges remain persistent, such as China’s slower-than-anticipated growth and Europe’s underperformance.

• Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (SMFG) presented a mixed set of results for the fiscal year ended in March 2017, with several positives but also notable challenges.
• The company’s profit attributable to owners of the parent came in at JPY 706.5 billion, an increase of JPY 59.8 billion from the previous year, partly due to the tax effects associated with adopting a consolidated corporate tax system.
• This tax benefit, however, will not recur, impacting future profitability metrics.

• In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: New World Development, China Vanke, Vedanta Resources
• The US market was closed for the Martin Luther King Jr Day holiday yesterday.
• In China, the one-year and five-year loan prime rates (quoted by commercial banks) have been maintained at 3.10% and 3.60%, respectively.

• Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) demonstrated robust performance in its 2024 fourth-quarter results, revealing both strengths and potential challenges in its operational and financial outcomes.
• The bank’s reported earnings stood at $4.2 billion, which includes $265 million from its acquisition of HSBC Canada.
• Adjusted earnings showed an 18% year-over-year increase to $4.4 billion, driven largely by market appreciation and strong client activities.

• The Seneca IHT Service is a non-AIM/unquoted BR product.
• It will invest in Seneca Secured Lending Limited and/or Seneca Secured Finance Limited, depending on the desired mix of capital and income returns.
• Both lend on a secured basis in a variety of areas.

• Zacks Small-Cap Research Note for Beneficient (BENF)

• Discussion on potential tariffs and their impact on global markets, with a focus on Canada, China, and Mexico
• Analysis of the upcoming BOJ meeting and its potential impact on the Japanese yen
• Update on UK’s economic challenges, including concerns about fiscal math and potential trade war implications

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• KTC has just released its 4Q24 results and presentation, with a stand out diagram on BOT debt relief measures
• With the several measures in place by the BOT, including lowering minimum card payment, lengthening loan term and lowering rate, there are clear stresses.
• ROA is under pressure, and part of this will be due to rising credit costs, which are up from 470bps to 610bps from FY22 to FY24

• HSBC Holdings plc reported a solid financial performance for the third quarter of 2024, reflecting the effectiveness of its ongoing strategic initiatives.
• Key points from the earnings call highlight the firm’s continued growth, strategic restructuring, and some external influences, creating a nuanced outlook for potential investors.
• On the financial front, HSBC posted a profit before tax of $8.5 billion, marking an 11% increase compared to the same period last year, on a constant currency basis.

• Wells Fargo & Company demonstrated notable progress in its fourth quarter of 2024, underscoring a year marked by strengthening earnings profiles and risk control achievements.
• The firm showed both strategic resilience and adaptation in meeting its diverse operational objectives amid evolving market conditions.
• Looking at the positives, Wells Fargo expanded its net income and fee-based revenue, achieving an 11% rise in diluted earnings per share compared to the previous year.

• Nikkei has spent 55 trading days with 1M historic vol less than 1M implied vol, averaging about 4 points less.
• The trading range since October looks similar to the trading range the market went through from May to July with similar volatility characteristics. 
• Big move on Monday didn’t spark volatility with market settling into a very narrow range to finish the week down 1.89%.

• Kospi rebounds from weak performance at the start the week to finish essentially unchanged.
• 1M implied vol came off 2.3 points and is now at the 22nd percentile over the past year.
• Thursday’s 1.44% gain saw overwhelming Call activity with 3.6 Calls trading for every Put.

• Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, MUFG, reported a record-high net profit of JPY 1,258.1 billion for the first half of FY 2024, marking a 46% increase compared to the previous year.
• This achievement represents an 83% progression towards its FY 2024 profit target of JPY 1.5 trillion.
• The positive financial results were largely attributable to increased profitability in customer segments and substantial net gains from the sale of equity holdings.

• In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: China Vanke, Reliance Industries, Greenko Energy
• In the US, industrial production came in above estimates at 0.9% m-o-m in December (0.3% e / 0.2% revised p), supported by higher civilian aircraft production after the Boeing strike was resolved. Separately, housing starts surged 15.8% m-o-m (3.0% e / -3.7% revised p) to 1.5 mn units in December.
• Meanwhile, building permits declined 0.7% m-o-m (-2.2% e / 5.2% p) to 1.48 mn in the same month.

• Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) demonstrated robust performance in its 2024 fourth-quarter results, revealing both strengths and potential challenges in its operational and financial outcomes.
• The bank’s reported earnings stood at $4.2 billion, which includes $265 million from its acquisition of HSBC Canada.
• Adjusted earnings showed an 18% year-over-year increase to $4.4 billion, driven largely by market appreciation and strong client activities.

• Toronto-Dominion Bank Group’s Q4 2024 financial performance presents a mix of positive developments and notable challenges.
• The bank reported a quarter with total earnings of $3.2 billion and earnings per share (EPS) of $1.72, both metrics reflecting a year-over-year decline of 8% and 5% respectively.
• Notably, the bank’s revenue grew by 12% year-over-year, underscored by a strong performance in market-related businesses and Canadian volume growth.

• The issue with borrowing agreements is that contracts with conditions set later or changeable terms don’t count, creating uncertainty on how this will play out in practice.
• Many borrowing agreements depend on recall timing for ownership recognition, even within the same day, creating confusion in practice.
• Repayment period limits don’t apply to internal desk-to-desk trades within the same firm. Other than those, no new updates today on reporting requirements, T+2 reporting window, or lending limits.

• RaaS has published an update report on diversified financials company Bell Financial Group (ASX:BFG) following the release of FY24 unaudited revenue and reported NPAT, with group revenue +12% to $276m (RaaS $279m), implying H2 FY24 growth of 8.0%, and group NPAT +26% to $30.7m (RaaS $31m), implying H2 FY24 growth of 7.0%.
• Divisionally Retail & Wholesale NPAT increased 115% to $9.2m, with H1 growth >900% and a H2 decline of ~20% on forecast lower ECM activity off a high base and in line with ASX market data.
• Technology & Platforms and Products & Services NPAT increased 16% over the year, with H1 +~5% and H2 +~25% (including normalisation assumptions), likely to be aided by growth in Funds Under Administration (FUA) and higher transaction volumes.These businesses now represent 70% of group NPAT with a NPAT margin of 25% compared to 5.2% for Retail & Wholesale.

• India Budget on 01.02.2025 driving price-action in the Options Market. Monthly IVs marked up at 17.0% as contracts cover event-risk. Vol Regime Model pushed into “High & Up” state.
• Vol term-structure bent into kinked-shape due to India Budget date. Skew characteristics are elevated while Smile largely unchanged with the exception of Monthly 10-Delta Strangles.
• Trading Strategy Implications: (1) Switch to “High & Up” vol-state triggers a cutback in Short Gamma & Short Vega exposure. (2) Vol-barbell opportunity due to the kinked-shape of the Vol-curve. 

• Insignia Financial (IFL AU) disclosed a revised non-binding privatisation offer from CC Capital at A$4.60, a 7.0% premium compared to its previous A$4.30 offer and Bain’s A$4.30 offer.
• While the revised CC Capital offer is attractive compared to historical trading ranges, there remains valuation headroom for Bain to engage in a bidding war. 
• The presence of several substantial shareholders facilitates a bidding war. The board should provide both bidders with due diligence access to promote the auction.

• I tally 51 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. I’ve yet to see a solid rationality why they would block.
• One new deal was discussed this week: Bain’s Tender Offer for Jamco Corp (7408 JP). Ho Bee Land Ltd (HOBEE SP) also countered for AVJennings Ltd (AVJ AU).
• Key updates/news took place on: Insignia Financial (IFL AU), Lifestyle China (2136 HK), and Advanced Info Service (ADVANC TB)/Thaicom Pcl (THCOM TB).

• American Airlines, the second-largest U.S. carrier by passenger traffic, has recently been on a mission to regain the trust and business of corporate travelers—a segment it admits to neglecting in recent years.
• After a failed sales and distribution strategy in 2022, the airline found itself trailing its rivals, United Airlines and Delta Air Lines, both of which gained market share in the lucrative business travel segment.
• The misstep cost American Airlines an estimated $1.5 billion in revenue in 2023 and left it grappling with customer dissatisfaction.

• After CC Capital waded in on the 6th January with a A$4.30/share NBIO for wealth manager Insignia Financial (IFL AU), trumping Bain’s A$4.00/share proposal, Bain subsequently matched CC Capital’s terms.  
• CC Capital has now lifted is indicative Offer to A$4.60/share, a ~50% premium to undisturbed. Time for IFL to engage. And for Tanarra to be supportive. 
• And Bain? I expect them to match CC Capital’s terms, again; if not a small premium. 

• Schloss Bangalore Ltd (SCHBL IN) is looking to raise about US$600m in its upcoming India IPO.
• It is a luxury hospitality company which owns, operates, manages and develops luxury hotels and resorts under ‘The Leela’ brand, through direct ownership and hotel management agreements with third-party owners.
• In this note, we talk about the company’s historical performance.

• BAC shows strong growth of its core income in the period YoY, almost accounting for 100% of its full net profit delta YoY
• The bank is showing greater strength in corporate lending YoY and QoQ, and this can be more powerful of a statement for economic health
• NCO figures are coming down in corporate lending, while residential mortgages is seeing strong new originations – both are a good view on US economy

• Pacific Current Group expected to receive a large tender offer at a premium of 20%+ in the next 2-4 months
• Trading at a 20% discount to estimated fair value NAV of A$13.47 per share with minimal NAV volatility risk
• Successful monetization of ownership stakes in boutique asset managers improving financial profile, poised for growth and value creation

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• In the US, December advance retail sales eased to 0.4% m-o-m (0.6% e / 0.8% revised p), while the November figure was revised upwards to 0.8% (from 0.7%).
• Growth in auto sales slowed to 0.7% (after accelerating 3.1% in November), albeit receipts at miscellaneous store retailers soared 4.3%.
• The retail sales control group (which feeds into the government’s calculation of goods spending for GDP, and excludes food services, auto dealers, gas stations and building materials stores) accelerated 0.7% m-o-m (0.4% e / 0.4% p). 

• ESR partners with CloudHQ for $2B Osaka data centre, aiming to enhance digital infrastructure in the region.
• Macquarie Asset Management plans to invest $5B in a crypto firm turned data centre startup, highlighting growing interest in the industry.
• US hyperscaler enters Malaysian market, establishing a 220MW campus in Johor to meet increasing demand for data services in the region.

• Scape, a living platform, receives a significant investment of $434 million from Korea’s NPS, boosting its growth and expansion.
• Ho Bee Land makes a competitive bid of $242 million for an Australian builder, directly challenging Proprium Capital in the real estate market.
• Korea’s NPS joins forces with Almanac Realty in a $800 million real estate joint venture, solidifying their presence in the industry.

• Phoenix Spree Deutschland focuses on residential properties in Berlin, Germany, acquiring under-rented apartment blocks to increase rental potential
• The company benefits from the stability of the Berlin rental market, where strict regulations govern rental apartments
• Recent asset sales suggest PSD may be moving towards a full orderly liquidation, potentially resulting in significant returns for investors.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• The 4Q24 results from JPM are strong with net profit up 50% YoY and 9% QoQ
• The bank shows almost no deposit growth YoY but there is reasonable loan growth
• While non-accrual loans are rising, JPM holds substantially and rising LLR for these

• Avjennings Ltd (AVJ AU) disclosed a competing non-binding proposal from Ho Bee Land Ltd (HOBEE SP) at A$0.70, a 4.5% premium to AVID’s A$0.67 offer. 
• The potential for a Ho Bee competing offer was discussed in AVJennings (AVJ AU): Competing Offer Brewing.
• Despite the hefty premium to the undisturbed price, the Ho Bee offer is below NTA. Therefore, there is headroom for a bidding war as an offer at NTA implies A$0.81.

• Santarli and Apex make joint bid worth $368M for a site in Western Singapore, expanding their real estate portfolio.
• CVC-backed chain competes for First REIT’s Indonesian assets valued at $599M, increasing their presence in the market.
• EdgeConneX ventures into Japan with a 140MW data center project in Greater Osaka, showcasing their global growth strategy.

• FY11/24 revenue was JPY35.6bn (+16.6% YoY), operating profit JPY5.3bn (-4.0% YoY), with EPS at JPY169.85.
• FY11/25 forecasts JPY40.2bn revenue (+13.0% YoY), JPY6.1bn operating profit (+15.0% YoY), and JPY175.89 EPS.
• Company plans growth investments, 700 new hires, and aims for 100,000 policy transfers in FY11/25.

• Back on the 28th November, AVJennings Ltd (AVJ AU), a reputable home builder in Australia/New Zealand, entered into a deed granting the AVID consortium exclusive confirmatory due diligence.
• The AVID consortium, comprising Proprium Capital Partners and AVID Property Group, pitched an NBIO (by way of a Scheme) of A$0.67/share. Singapore’s SC Global (54.5% shareholder) was supportive.
• In what appeared to be clean deal, Ho Bee Land Ltd (HOBEE SP) then acquired a 5.39% stake on the 23rd December. Now they’ve made their own NBIO at A$0.70/share. 

• NTT obtains $1B for a Singapore data center REIT, supporting expansion and growth in the region.
• Japan’s Open House acquires Bolder Presence in a $390M stake buy, increasing investment in the company.
• Shimao lowers Sheraton HK Airport hotel price by 30% to attract more customers, adjusting to market demand.

• In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Yuexiu Property, Seazen Group, Vedanta Resources
• In the US, the UST curve bear steepened slightly, amid a rise in oil price and a heavy pipeline of corporate bond issuances. The yield on the 2Y UST was unchanged at 4.38%, while that on the 10Y UST was up 2 bps at 4.78%. Equities were mixed.
• The S&P 500 rebounded 0.2% from last Friday’s selloff to close at 5,836. That said, the Nasdaq fell 0.4% to 19,088, driven by a decline in large tech stocks.

• After wealth manager Insignia Financial (IFL AU) announced – and subsequently rejected  Bain’s A$4.00/share Offer, CC Capital waded in on the 6th January with its own A$4.30/share NBIO.
• IFL have yet to reach an opinion on CC Capital bid. And to make things interesting, Bain has  sweetened its Offer to $4.30/share, matching CC Capital’s terms.
• What now? Either, IFL opens the data room to both parties. Or rejects both. I think they should engage.

• Trump plans to put serious tariffs on Mexico and Canada due to immigration and drug issues, impacting Asian currencies
• US and UK CPI data in focus for the week ahead, with expectations of higher inflation
• Currency depreciation pressures in Asia expected to continue, with China and Korea most vulnerable to depreciation pressures

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• Block Inc. trading at a similar price as last write-up in January 2023, with positive shifts in cultural and organizational aspects
• Block Inc. trading at a similar price as last write-up in January 2023, with positive shifts in cultural and organizational aspects
• Company’s dedication to Bitcoin and its ecosystems driving future shareholder returns, despite being misunderstood due to its history

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• Repo markets over year end were more subdued than expected, with balances reaching $473 billion in the afternoon on December 31st.
• The Fed’s balance sheet runoff, or QT, is expected to end by the first quarter of the year, with reserves holding above $3 trillion for most of last year.
• Potential delays in ending QT could be influenced by the resolution of the debt ceiling and the desired amount of reserves banks want to hold.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• IVs jump early as sentiment soured, but trailed off through the week as underlying markets held support zones. Vol-Regime Model retains “High & Down” state.
• Skew & Smile unchanged over the week in spite of the rollercoaster ride in IVs. Term-structure experienced to-and-fro swings.    
• Trading Strategy Implications: Iron Condor/ Butterfly structures to be continued as long as regime model indicates “High & Down” vol state. 

• Resilience is showing up in survey data, impacting yields and strategies in Oregon and beyond
• Rising term premium and fiscal spending expectations affecting markets, especially the dollar
• Sterling facing challenges with lower quality carry, fiscal issues, and potential growth slowdown, while Dollar remains bullish with strong US employment report and Fed outlook

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• Sunac faces financial distress as China Cinda files new wind-up petition due to inability to repay debt.
• Country Garden plans to reduce $11.6B offshore debt as home sales decline in current market conditions.
• UOL from Singapore successfully invests $285M in Sydney office amid market revival, showcasing confidence in growth.

• Vinhomes launched a roadshow last week to market its debut USD 144A/RegS five-year bullet notes.
• The notes are expected to be rated B1 by Moody’s and BB- by Fitch, in line with the issuer rating.
• The proceeds will be used mainly for debt refinancing and capex.

• Northeast Bank is offering investors an informational arbitrage opportunity with potential for significant near-term earnings growth that has not been fully recognized by the market.
• The company’s focus on increasing SBA 7(a) loan origination is beginning to yield results, with the potential for considerable gains upon sale.
• Data from the SBA supports the optimistic outlook for Northeast Bank’s earnings in the coming quarters and years, presenting investors with a chance to profit from acting on this information before it is fully reflected in financial reports.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• FP10/24 results exceeded company guidance for net operating income (NOI) and dividend per unit (DPU).
• The notable improvement of NOI (+11.6% vs. FP10/23, +4.8% vs FP4/24) is attributable to a lower expense ratio than initial expectations (actual 32.5%, guidance 34.0%) due to lower rental business expenses and repair costs, higher variable rent on the back of a strong tailwind in the hotel sector (actual ¥173 million vs. guidance ¥149 million), and other one-off rental income.
• Other expenses such as outsourcing costs and utility bills were well controlled, reflecting MIRAI’s asset management ability.