Japan

• KeePer Technical Laboratory (6036 JP) has switched its allegiance from the Soft99 Corp (4464 JP) MBO by agreeing to accept the higher Effissimo offer. 
• KeePer’s change of heart sets a huge precedent and signals that irrevocables are unenforceable and fiduciary duty outweighs a promise to tender.
• Nevertheless, the outcome is still not set in stone. Effissimo’s chances of success have increased, but the MBO still retains a long-shot chance of success.

• I tally 42 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.
• Two new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this week: Larvotto Resources (LRV AU) and Minmetals Land (230 HK).
• Key updates/news took place on: Apiam Animal Health (AHX AU), Lynch Group Holdings (LGL AU), Joy City Property (207 HK), Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP), and Mandarin Oriental International (MAND SP).

• Hisamitsu Pharmaceutical Co (4530 JP) reported revenue of ¥34.7B in 1HFY26 down 1% YoY, mainly dragged by subdued performance by Salonpas focused OTC pharmaceutical products.
• Rx business revenues grew 6% as Zicthoru, Apohide, Combipatch,Vivelle-Dot etc clocked healthy numbers excepting Mohrus product line.
• Hisamitsu reiterated FY26 guidance expecting revenue to be ¥165B with profits growth expected to decelerate on higher cost.

• Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.
• Highlights: Currently nine pair trade opportunities across four markets and four sectors persist.
• Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.

• GA Technologies is a high-growth PropTech leader in Japan, driving the digital transformation of the traditionally analog real estate industry through its comprehensive online platform, RENOSY.
• The company has demonstrated an exceptional revenue growth trajectory, underpinned by its core RENOSY marketplace and the expansion of its B2B SaaS offerings through its subsidiary, ITANDI. Recent M&A activity signals a strategic push into data-driven services and international markets, including the US.
• While profitability is improving, margins remain thin, and the business is exposed to the cyclical nature of the real estate market and rising competition. Future success hinges on scaling its platform, achieving operating leverage, and successfully integrating acquisitions.

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• A compelling investment strategy focused on high-quality Japanese equities, selected for strong financial health and growth prospects. This approach targets companies offering stability and long-term appreciation.
• The portfolio emphasizes industrial, automation, pharma, and technology hardware sectors, balanced with a tactical volatility trading approach. This strategy aims to enhance returns while managing short-term market fluctuations.
• Otsuka Holdings is highlighted as a core pharma pick. Screen and Hirose Electric are strong value picks in manufacturing and electronic tech, contributing to the portfolio’s quality and value focus.

• BoJ will want to retain discretion regarding ETF sales, so it’ll sell flexibly depending on stock market conditions. The sale of ETFs is just the beginning of a long journey.
• The shift to inflationary economy has made it easier than before to implement measures to improve capital profitability. Nevertheless, companies whose capital profitability hasn’t improved significantly should make further efforts.
• To raise average ROE of companies 2ppt, OP margin must increase 25% from current levels. Achieving 25% increase in a company’s overall OP margin requires significant restructuring of business portfolios.

Key points (machine generated)

• MARUKA FURUSATO Corporation revised its FY12/25 financial forecasts downward, expecting recovery in FY12/26.
• The company reported a slight increase in net sales but significant declines in operating and ordinary profits due to rising labor costs and lack of extraordinary income.
• An organizational restructuring is planned for January 2026, with a commitment to increase dividends to a target of at least 3.5% for FY12/25.

This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only.

• In 1H FY03/26, operating revenue was JPY42.1bn (+2.2% YoY), with a net income of JPY6.5bn (+6.9% YoY).
• Mobile service revenue increased to JPY22.6bn (+3.3% YoY), with total contracts rising to 692,300 (+1.4% YoY).
• Operating revenue progress was 49.5% of the FY03/26 forecast, with operating profit at 51.4% of the target.

• JAFCO’s revenue and profits declined YoY, with revenue at JPY11.9bn and net income at JPY1.9bn.
• Capital gains were JPY4.4bn, with a 1.84x investment multiple, and one domestic IPO was executed.
• Total investment in 1H FY03/26 was JPY13.7bn, with JPY7.7bn in domestic VC investments across eight companies.

Key points (machine generated)

• SFP Holdings reported increased revenue but decreased profit for the interim period ending February 2026.
• The company is focusing on improving its cost ratio through menu revisions, aiming for increased revenue and profit for the full year.
• SFP Holdings has rebounded to pre-pandemic levels by leveraging domestic consumption recovery and is expanding its presence in regional cities.

This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only.

• Shin Etsu Chemical is a global leader in polyvinyl chloride (PVC) and semiconductor silicon wafers, granting it significant market influence and economies ofscale.
• The company is facing near-term headwinds, evidenced by disappointing FY26 guidance which forecasts a 14.4% decline in operating income, leading to recent stock price underperformance.
• Despite the cyclical downturn, Shin Etsu maintains a robust financial position, characterized by a strong balance sheet and significant cash flow, enabling substantial shareholder returns through buybacks.

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• When the Pacific Industrial (7250 JP) deal was announced in late July, I said it needed to be done 20-40% higher. I hadn’t expected someone to push so hard. 
• But Effissimo pushed. They bought 12.5% of shares out, and 13+% of votes at an average price of ¥2,365/share – 15% through terms.
• Three months later after multiple extensions, Bidco bid up. +42.4%, to 1.002x March 2025 BVPS. A raging win for activists and minority investors. I’m genuinely surprised by the quantum.

• The MBO price for Pacific Industrial (7250 JP) has increased by 42.4% from JPY2,050 to JPY2,919 per share. The revised offer represents a P/B of 1.01x.
• While Effissimo has publicly built a 13.25% ownership stake, behind the scenes, Murakami agitated for a bump by suggesting that he would help fund the increase in the consideration.
• The Ogawas rebuffed Murakami’s funding but secured his verbal agreement to tender. While Effissimo’s intentions remain unknown, it is likely to support the revised offer. 

• Nintendo is poised for a significant growth phase, driven by its new console and an expansive intellectual property ecosystem, promising sustained financial performance.
• Strategic capacity expansion and a robust balance sheet position Nintendo to capitalize on strong demand, mitigating risks and reinforcing its market leadership.
• Despite potential market volatility and competitive pressures, aggressive production targets and a strong financial foundation suggest a compelling investment opportunity.

• Japan’s chemicals industry is finally undergoing a long-overdue consolidation that should lead to fewer companies, higher profitability, and less volatility.
• These changes may be driving significant mispricing. Like most segments, RoE drives most of the variance in PBR, but with more frequent and far larger outliers.
• KH Neochem, Daicel, and Mitsui Chemicals are the undervalued outliers, and all three are positioned for rapid growth in our view.

• Synspective is a Japanese space-tech company specializing in the development and operation of a constellation of Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) satellites, known as StriX. The company provides SAR data and value-added analytical solutions to government and commercial clients for applications such as disaster monitoring, infrastructure management, and urban planning.
• The company is in a high-growth phase, aiming to expand its satellite constellation to 30 satellites by the latter half of the 2020s to enable near real-time global observation. This expansion is capital-intensive, reflected in the company’s current unprofitability and negative cash flows.
• The satellite-based Earth observation market is experiencing robust growth, driven by increasing demand for geospatial data and advancements in satellite technology. Synspective is well-positioned to capture a share of this expanding market, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region, but faces intense competition from established and emerging players.

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• DreamArts is a high-growth Japanese SaaS provider capitalizing on the domestic digital transformation trend with its flagship no-code platform, ‘SmartDB®’, which targets non-IT personnel in large enterprises.
• The company has demonstrated a strong financial track record, with significant revenue growth, margin expansion, and robust cash flow generation over the past three years.
• Management has set an ambitious medium-term target to exceed JPY 10 billion in sales by 2028, driven by the continued adoption of ‘SmartDB®’ and a strategic focus on empowering ‘citizen developers’.

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• Seiren is a global leader in high-performance textiles, with a dominant position in the automotive interior market, which constitutes the majority of its revenue. The company is poised to benefit from the growing demand for advanced, functional, and aesthetically pleasing materials in vehicles.
• The company’s proprietary ‘Viscotecs’ digital production system provides a significant competitive advantage, enabling mass customization, short delivery times, and inventory-free production. This technology is a key driver of efficiency and innovation, allowing expansion into non-textile applications.
• Financial performance has been robust, with a strong track record of revenue, net income, and dividend growth. High resilience and momentum scores, coupled with a solid balance sheet, position the company well for future investments and shareholder returns.

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• Integral is a leading Japanese private equity firm with a strong track record, evidenced by a 27% gross IRR and the recent oversubscription of its fifth fund at JPY 250 billion.
• A major upcoming catalyst is the IPO of its portfolio company, Tekscend, which is expected to crystallize significant value and provide a substantial cash infusion of approximately ¥108 billion.
• Despite its strong performance and growth prospects, the company’s stock trades at a persistent discount, which analysts attribute to a low dividend payout and the absence of a clear capital return policy for shareholders.

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Key points (machine generated)

• Create Restaurants Holdings reported positive interim performance for the fiscal year ending February 2026, with revenue and profit increases.
• The company operates a diverse range of restaurants and food courts, employing a multi-brand strategy and managing approximately 1,131 stores across 230 formats.
• Despite COVID-19 challenges, Create Restaurants Holdings has focused on profitability through cost control and restructuring for post-pandemic recovery.

This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only.

• Yakult Honsha (2267 JP)‘s stock price has continued to slide, and the stock is now trading 53% lower than its highs from 18 months ago. 
• The lower market cap should result in the stock being deleted from a global index in November. The stock has underperformed peers but still trades at higher valuations.
• There has been increased positioning over the last few weeks. Short interest is higher since end-August but there has been covering in the last couple of weeks.

• AI’s evolving every second of every day, and so are the boom’s best investing plays. Early this year, I called out SoftBank Group as a prime AI opportunity.
• A wide discount to NAV offered a cheap way to invest in Arm and tech, but that’s narrowed after Softbank’s 150% share price rally – and more limited NAV growth.
• So I’ve taken a fresh look at SoftBank, reviewed my original trade ideas, and found a new undervalued power play that could help you reap a tidy reward.

• Recently, I had the chance to discuss Hamee Corporation (TSE: 3134) with Evan Bleker of Event Driven Insights.

• Hamee Corporation will soon spin-off its high margin software business.
• The company is 2 weeks away from breaking up into two separate companies which both look attractive.

• Context: Toyota Motor (7203 JP) rallied 3.2% in Wednesday’s morning session. Quantitative models highlight potential for a short-term pull-back.
• Trade Idea: Three actionable option strategies with a bearish tilt are presented, taking advantage of current implied volatility levels and skew.
• Why Read: This Insight combines directional analysis with volatility signals, highlighting a tactical options strategy where high implied volatility and bearish probabilities align, offering investors defined risk/reward.

• Honeys Holdings is leveraging its SPA model to drive growth using a data-driven rapid decision-making process to capture demand in the tough womenswear market.
• It has managed to grow sales for five straight years while also rebuilding supply chains, with some of the highest gross margins in the industry.
• While margins have been hit by higher import costs due to the weak Yen, and higher labour costs, Honeys is squeezing costs further to make up for this.

Key points (machine generated)

• Nagai Reiben reported consolidated sales of 16,983 million yen for the fiscal year ending August 2025, a 3.5% increase from the previous year.
• The company faced declines in operating profit (down 10.5%), ordinary profit (down 9.0%), and net profit (down 8.8%) due to project delays in the fourth quarter.
• Despite challenges, Nagai Reiben maintained a total return ratio of 204.3% for shareholders.

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• Rakus is a high-growth, Japan-focused SaaS provider capitalizing on the digital transformation of the nation’s large and underserved Small and Medium-sized Enterprise (SME) sector. Its strong brand recognition and flagship ‘Raku Raku’ suite of business process automation tools are driving rapid customer acquisition.
• The company has demonstrated an exceptional financial track record, with revenue and net income CAGRs over the past three years of 33.3% and 95.1%, respectively. This growth is coupled with consistently expanding margins, reflecting operational leverage and the scalability of its subscription-based model.
• While the growth outlook is robust, fueled by structural tailwinds such as labor shortages and a government push for digitalization, the company’s valuation is demanding. The premium multiples reflect high expectations, making the stock susceptible to shifts in market sentiment and competitive pressures.

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• BoJ’s policy of small-scale ETF sales appears to have made inflation curb more difficult due to the yen’s depreciation, although it did not trigger a sharp stock market decline.
• The ETFs held by BoJ reduce trading liquidity, thereby increasing stock price volatility and limiting the number of Japanese stocks available for investment by major institutional investors.
• Given that the Bank of Japan’s holdings of ETFs exceed 20% of the issued shares in some companies, the existence of “silent shareholders” is not healthy for corporate governance.

• Toyota Motor (7203 JP) has been going nowhere since July 2025 and before that it dropped from its highest peak. Long-term bullish, but short term we expect a pullback.
• Our model shows that the current trend pattern for Toyota Motor (7203 JP) is not bullish, usually the stock pulls back after 2 weeks up, i.e. end of this week.
• We propose this analysis of the pullback as an opportunity to buy at higher prices, or otherwise to hedge your holdings, if you want to tactically optimize returns.

• BeNext-Yumeshin Group is a major player in the Japanese human resource services industry, specializing in the dispatch of engineers and technical staff across several key sectors.
• The company has demonstrated a strong growth trajectory in revenue and net income, supported by a robust dividend payout history, making it an attractive proposition for income-oriented investors.
• Key challenges include navigating the highly competitive and fragmented domestic market, managing risks associated with economic cyclicality, and adapting to evolving labor regulations in Japan.

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• Kanematsu is a diversified general trading company distinguishing itself with a strong focus on high-growth areas like ICT Solutions and Electronics & Devices, which now constitute the majority of its operating profit.
• The company exhibits a shareholder-friendly capital return policy, evidenced by a strong dividend yield and a consistent track record of increasing dividend payouts, supported by robust cash flow generation.
• Recent performance highlights a tale of two businesses: significant profit growth in technology-related segments is being partially offset by pronounced weakness in the more traditional Motor Vehicles & Aerospace and Foods, Meat & Grain segments.

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• Context: The Honda (7267 JP) vs. Subaru (7270 JP) price-ratio has deviated two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
• Highlights: Going long Honda (7267 JP) and short Subaru (7270 JP) targets a 5% return.
• Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.

• Serial Acquirer Focused on a Niche Market: Next Generation Technology Group operates as a serial acquirer, focusing on profitable small and medium-sized manufacturing enterprises (SMEs) in Japan facing succession issues. This strategy provides access to a steady stream of acquisition targets at potentially attractive valuations.
• Value Creation Playbook Drives Growth: The company implements a proprietary value creation program, the ‘NGTG Growth Program’ (NGP), across its portfolio companies to improve operational efficiency, enhance profitability, and drive organic growth post-acquisition.
• Experienced Management and Disciplined M&A: The management team has a background in finance and manufacturing, with a stated focus on disciplined M&A, acquiring companies with high profitability and technologies that are difficult to replace.

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• Profitability Over Growth Strategy: Sakura Kcs is demonstrating a clear strategy of prioritizing profitability over revenue growth. The company has successfully increased net income and expanded margins over the past three years by withdrawing from low-margin projects, despite a concurrent decline in overall revenue.
• Alarming Cash Flow Disconnect: A significant red flag is the stark divergence between reported net income and cash flow generation. While net income has grown robustly, operating and free cash flow turned sharply negative in the most recent fiscal year, raising questions about earnings quality and the sustainability of its dividend growth.
• Positioned for Digital Transformation Tailwinds: The company is well-positioned within the growing Japanese IT services market, which is benefiting from a nationwide push for digital transformation (‘Japan DX’). Its focus on financial, public, and industrial sectors aligns with key areas of technology investment, and recent investments in a new AI-capable data center could be a future growth driver.

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• Japan Eyewear Holdings (5889 JP) shares are moving from the Standard Market to the Prime Market of the Tokyo Stock Exchange, thereby enhancing visibility and liquidity.
• The company has been showing consistently strong financial performance, driven by continuous recovery in inbound tourists. Overseas sales are also gaining traction.
• For FY30, JEH targets revenue of ¥28B, representing five-year CAGR of 10%. JEH aims to achieve operating profit of ¥10B in FY30, a CAGR of 13% during FY25–30.

• A&D Company Ltd is a well-established Japanese manufacturer of precision measurement and medical equipment, operating in stable, growing industries.
• The company has demonstrated a strong track record of profitability and impressive long-term growth in net income and free cash flow, supporting consistent dividend payments.
• While the company’s valuation appears attractive relative to peers and its own historical performance, future growth may be tempered by slowing revenue forecasts and increasing competition in its key markets.

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Key points (machine generated)

• SBS Holdings, Inc. aims for over ¥700 billion in net sales by FY12/30, focusing on growth through mergers and acquisitions.
• In FY12/25’s first half, net sales increased by 3.1% to ¥228.5 billion, but operating income fell by 41.7% to ¥6.4 billion, exceeding forecasts.
• The company targets ¥485 billion in net sales and ¥20.5 billion in operating income for FY12/25, emphasizing 3PL, international logistics, and e-commerce.

This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only.

• Today, in something of a surprise but not a complete surprise, Silvercape came out with its own bid for Digital Holdings Inc (2389 JP) at +20% from the Hakuhodo bid.
• They make it clear that the original bid does not protect minority shareholders or give them sufficient value. This one would. Which means that is Hakuhodo’s bogey.
• It would not be impossible for Silvercape to get to its minimum hurdle, but despite being lower than Hakuhodo’s it’s not a gimme. 

• Softbank Group (9984 JP)‘s weight in the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) has broken through 10% and staying there will lead to capping at the March rebalance.
• Nearly half of Softbank Group‘s float is held by passive trackers, and the real float is much lower. Capping will increase the real float by a few percentage points.
• Softbank Group has outperformed the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) significantly over the last 6 months and cumulative excess volume has started to increase sharply. Watch out for pullbacks.

• SilverCape has launched a hostile preconditional tender offer for Digital Holdings Inc (2389 JP) at JPY2,380, a 20.8% premium to the Hakuhodo Dy Holdings (2433 JP) JPY1,970 offer. 
• The Board stonewalled SilverCape’s attempts to negotiate a friendly offer. SilverCape’s offer is based on EV/EBITDA multiples and will commence in late November.
• The situation shares similarities with Soft99’s contested offer. The Board is likely to oppose the SilverCape offer. Hakuhodo’s likely move will be to extend the close and disclose current acceptances. 

• In the past, dividends paid out of net income were often mistakenly regarded as “equity costs.” Consequently, many companies have adopted the concept of payout ratio as their dividend policy.
• The increasing number of companies adopting dividend policy based on DOE may help curb the expansion of shareholders’ equity, but it hasn’t yet led to active use to raise ROE.
• Few managers still understand that entire FCF belongs to shareholders. Due to the unfortunate history of dividends mistakenly viewed as “equity costs,” few companies clearly articulate their cash allocation strategies.

Key points (machine generated)

• ROBOT PAYMENT, listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange under ticker 4374, is growing rapidly due to its subscription-based services.
• Approximately 98% of the company’s revenue comes from recurring sources, indicating strong customer retention and expansion.
• In the first half of the fiscal year ending December 2025, ROBOT PAYMENT reported significant revenue growth, maintaining double-digit increases in revenue and profit since its 2021 listing.

This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only.

Key points (machine generated)

• Iseki & Co., Ltd. is revising its full-year forecast positively for the fiscal year ending December 2025 due to progress with Project Z.
• The company manufactures a wide range of agricultural machinery, including tractors and combines, for both hobbyists and professionals.
• Iseki is expanding internationally, with overseas sales nearing half of its domestic market, while integrating advanced technologies to tackle workforce challenges.

This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only.

• Create SD is one of the largest food & drug hybrid retailers in Japan and dominates its home Kanagawa market. 
• The company now plans to grow sales by 49% over the next five years, adding 30-40 stores a year.
• With the supermarket sector now entering a period of significant disruption, Create also plans to acquire local chains to accelerate expansion.

• Revenue increased by 3.0% YoY to JPY31.7bn, achieving 50.0% of the full-year forecast, while operating profit fell 4.4% YoY.
• Segment revenue for scaffolding equipment rose 3.7% YoY to JPY13.0bn, but segment profit decreased 24.0% YoY.
• Revenue from digital firefighter radios grew 12.3% YoY to JPY2.7bn, narrowing the segment loss compared to 1H FY03/25.

Key points (machine generated)

• Segue Group, listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, reported record sales and profits for the interim period of fiscal year 2025.
• The company operates in four segments: Value Added Distribution, system integration, in-house security product development, and overseas business.
• Segue Group has shifted its focus to proprietary software development, particularly the ‘RevoWorks*’ series, while maintaining traditional product sales.

This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only.

• Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) has sold over 5% of shares outstanding in Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) over the last month as the stock has run up.
• The increased market cap and higher float should result in index inclusion and passive buying for Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) in November. Then an upweight in another index in December.
• Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)‘s selling could also lead to Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) meeting JPX’s tradable share ratio and removes an overhang for the stock.

• Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
• On the IPO front, India saw a host of listing, while HK is gearing up a busy year end.
• On the placements front, we had a look at some of the IPO lockups. There weren’t any large placements this week.

• Istyle Inc (3660 JP) is a cosmetics retailer under the name @Cosme, but it is also an exemplar of how to build a true omnichannel business.
• Its effective use of the deep data available from the 10 million users on its core @Cosme platform is its key asset.
• It now targets ¥83 billion in sales this year, using data to expand into supplements and Femtech.

• Mitsubishi Electric is pivoting its strategic focus towards high-growth digital and green technologies, exemplified by its ‘Serendie’ digital innovation platform and the recent acquisition of cybersecurity firm Nozomi Networks. This is intended to build on its established strengths in factory automation and automotive equipment.
• The company is targeting significant revenue growth from these new digital ventures, aiming for ¥1.1 trillion from Serendie-related initiatives by FY2031. This strategy is supported by heavy investment in AI and a planned tripling of its digital innovation workforce.
• While demonstrating strong recent growth and market momentum, the company faces considerable execution risks. These include integrating new acquisitions, competing with established digital platforms from rivals like Siemens and Hitachi, and navigating macroeconomic uncertainties such as currency volatility and potential tariffs.

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• The gradual increase in the proportion of independent directors is partly due to the growing shift from companies with audit committees to companies with audit and supervisory committees.
• Companies with audit committees tend to have more outside directors by design, yet they can delegate operational matters to inside directors. Consequently, companies don’t strongly resist having more outside directors.
• As more companies expand businesses globally, the number of foreign directors hasn’t increased significantly. The reason for this lack of growth is the absence of specific targets set by regulators.

• Shiseido’s share price dropped 70% over the past six years, compared to a 110% gain by Topix, but the stock just crossed its 200-day MAV. Time for another look?  
• In our view, the stock lacks most of the required criteria for a successful turnaround, and reeks of all the important criteria for failure. 
• Shiseido’s stock already prices in a 50% earnings recovery. To be compelling, the forecast needs to be 4 standard deviations above the mean, or the price needs to decline 30%.  

• The Soft99 Corp (4464 JP) MBO offer price has been increased by 8.7% to JPY2,680, an 18.8% discount to the last close and a 34.6% discount to the Effissimo offer. 
• Ostensibly, the offer was revised based on requests from some shareholders to increase the offer price and for it to exceed the book value of JPY2,653 (implying P/B of 1.01x). 
• The latest update points to modest withdrawals of non-KeePer acceptances. Effissimo continues to face an uphill task, and the revised MBO offer increases the odds of success.

• The merger between Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) and Welcia Holdings (3141 JP) will go through in about 6 weeks. In the interim, there are interesting events. 
• After, there is a Partial Tender Offer. I expect Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP) will have to pay up. 
• Furthermore, the stock is not overly expensive vs Peers AND there are synergies to come from the merger, making it relatively cheaper. It’s not squeezy, but it’s skewed.

• Toyoda Gosei (7282 JP) has lowered its minimum tendering condition but kept its Ashimori Industry (3526 JP) tender offer unchanged at JPY4,140.
• The lowered minimum tendering condition, which would be met based on acceptances as of 24 September, would also enable the share consolidation vote to pass based on AGM voting trends. 
• Takateru Murakami has been left high and dry and will likely pursue appraisal rights. At the last close, the gross/annualised spread is 0.6%/10.8%.

• Ito-Yokado’s withdrawal from the Hokkaido market has proven a windfall for affiliated chain, Daiichi. 
• The Hokkaido supermarket has already opened new stores in sites vacated by Ito-Yokado – the only difficulty has been finding ways to fill the larger spaces.
• Now Arcs is waiting in the wings in case Daiichi becomes available for takeover – Arcs’ chairman owns 1% of Daiichi personally.

• Unicharm is a dominant player in the Asian personal care market, particularly in diapers and feminine hygiene, with a growing pet care segment. Its strong brand recognition and extensive distribution network provide a solid foundation for growth.
• The company’s growth strategy is centered on capitalizing on favorable demographic trends, such as aging populations in developed markets (driving adult incontinence product demand) and rising disposable incomes in emerging economies.
• Key challenges include intense competition from global and local players, volatility in raw material costs (pulp and polymers), and foreign exchange fluctuations, given that approximately two-thirds of its sales are generated overseas.

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• Revenue increased to JPY18.7bn (+8.4% YoY), with Cloud Integration at JPY1.1bn and Resale at JPY16.8bn.
• Operating profit decreased to JPY90mn (-85.0% YoY), impacted by a 91.5% cost of revenue ratio and goodwill amortization.
• Resale revenue growth driven by increased AWS usage, with accounts reaching 6,364 (+29.8% YoY) and high ARPU.

• Toumei reported FY08/25 revenue of JPY29.1bn (+21.5% YoY) and net income of JPY2.4bn (+56.6% YoY).
• For FY08/26, Toumei forecasts revenue of JPY34.8bn (+19.7% YoY) and net income of JPY2.6bn (+6.2% YoY).
• Toumei plans to pay an annual dividend of JPY11 per share for FY08/26 (JPY19 for FY08/25).

• Although Net Profit Margin has been the most highly correlated of 3 components of ROE, improvements in Asset Turnover and Equity Ratio driven by share buybacks are now drawing attention.
• In FY2026, once the temporary impact of U.S. tariffs has run its course, companies engaged in global business are expected to more aggressively repurchase their own shares alongside recovering profits.
• The ROE derived from the aggregate profits and net assets of all companies differs by over 1% from the average ROE of individual companies, and this gap won’t be narrow.

• Cumulative Q3 FY11/25 revenue was JPY24.4bn (-9.7% YoY), with operating profit at JPY2.2bn (-49.8% YoY).
• Full-year forecast revised: revenue JPY32.0bn (-2.0%), operating profit JPY2.5bn (+19.8%), net income JPY1.7bn (+25.0%).
• Dividend forecast unchanged at JPY94 per share, with a year-end dividend of JPY47 per share.

• In 1H FY02/26, Baroque Japan reported revenue of JPY24.8bn, an operating loss of JPY77mn, and net income of JPY11mn.
• Termination of the joint venture with Belle led to a YoY revenue decline but increased recurring profit and net income.
• Baroque Japan established a joint venture with JD.com, focusing on selling Japanese goods in the Chinese market.

• Revenue for the company was JPY39.7bn, a 21.2% YoY decline, achieving 100.6% of the forecast.
• Gross merchandise value (GMV) was JPY167.2bn, with 60.7mn orders and 4.6mn active users, all declining YoY.
• For FY08/26, the company forecasts JPY44.1bn revenue, with operating and recurring losses of JPY4.0bn each.