Macro

• Risk assets have suffered, despite decent Nvidia results suggesting AI demand hasn’t turned yet, and the macro data remaining resilient. Fears are more theme-specific.
• US labour market activity entered the shutdown solidly, and low jobless claims suggest it survived fine. Meanwhile, UK inflation only lost a little excess, and our forecast rose.
• Next week’s UK Budget is the lowlight of our week, but it may struggle to live up to all the noisy hype. Sneaky backloaded tax hikes will close the latest forecast hole again.

• U.S. data releases are expected to clarify economic conditions while political pressure complicates monetary policy sentiment.

• Japan’s new leadership has escalated geopolitical tensions with China through unnecessary provocative statements.

• Asian growth remains mixed but resilient, led by strong performances in Vietnam, India, Taiwan, and Malaysia.

• A High Court ruling has affirmed Sabah’s constitutional entitlement of 40% of state-derived revenues. The ruling exerts fiscal and political pressure on the federal government.  
• The ruling is part of a structural trend where East Malaysian states have used their leverage over the federal government to push for greater policy autonomy. 
• While a fiscal or political crisis is not imminent, the ruling may accelerate a shift in Malaysia towards a more federal, decentralised model of economic policymaking. 

• Saudi’s Crown Prince successful visit in Washington.                             
• Housing costs still driving inflation in GCC.
• Construction an important part of Saudi activity. FX, watch out for the year-end turn.

• Combination of concerns about Fed rate trajectory, AI capex monetization, Chinese growth slowdown and Japanese Yen carry trade unwinding brought the US and Asian markets 4-5% down since late October.
• Expensive valuations are now justifiably correcting. Notwithstanding worries about a December cut, the interest rate trajectory remains resolutely downwards. Asian disinflation offers several central banks further room for monetary easing. 
• AI capex monetization worries will wax and wane. But Asian AI enablers’ cash flows seem safe and valuations inexpensive. Corporate earnings environment is solid in US and recovering in Asia.

• Sentiment in Japan has reversed sharply showing strains in the JPY and JGB markets.  The Nikkei 225 has retraced all its gains since the election of Prime Minister Takaichi.
• The market is nervous about the size of Takaichi’s economic package, which will be ¥21.3 trillion; 27%. more than her predecessor pledged. It will increase bond issuance substantially.
• Tensions from Takaichi’s provocation of China show no sign of easing.  China has started economic and other measures to respond. The US has removed a missile launcher from Japan.

• US payroll data revealed resilience going into the US government shutdown, with jobs growth the strongest since April and annualising to a pace capable of plateauing growth.
• Surging labour force participation drove unemployment up in the least disappointing way, with the employment to population ratio making a contradictory improvement.
• Jobless claims suggest stability into the shutdown’s end, besides noisy federal claims. The FOMC may not get the evidence it needs to cut again in December. It may not exist.

Highlights

• Choppy and rangebound price movement expected in November 

• Narrowing SIR 20 vs INE spread could encourage substitution

• September import and export trend diverged

• Downstream restocking was selective rather than programmatic, leaving spot premiums capped

• In Depth: China’s Pharma Pioneers in Africa Dig In for the Long Haul
• AI and Data Offer China, EU Space to Cooperate as Trade Tensions Rise
• China’s State-Owned Financial Institutions Brace for Pay Cuts

Highlights

• Ambitious yield goals target 1120 kg/ha

• China still takes around three-quarters

• Replanting financing remains a pivotal constraint

Production and yield dynamics in 2025 show rubber remains one of Myanmar’s industrial cornerstone crops. Available estimates place annual output around 300,000-350,000 metric tons, out of a total plantation area of over 600,000 hectares.

• Crude oil futures closed slightly lower Thursday following another choppy session amid huge uncertainty around sanctions on Russia, plus a mooted peace deal.
• Front-month Jan26 ICE Brent futures were trading at $63.34/b (1953 GMT) versus the prior settle of $63.51/b, while Jan25 NYMEX WTI was at $59.01/b against a previous close of $59.25/b.
• Benchmarks again tested one-week lows on rising US inventories and reports that the US was brokering a Russia-Ukraine truce, a move that would lower the geopolitical risk premium.

• UK disinflation relied on smaller utility price hikes and only went as far as the 3.6% forecast before September’s dovish surprise. It does not mean a path to 2% lies ahead.
• A broad rebound in price increases took the annualised median impulse above 4% to average 2.5% over two months, or 3% on the year, as the underlying problem persists.
• The BoE’s December decision pivots around the Governor, who seemingly needs upside news to avoid delivering a cut, so this outcome preserves that riskily dovish course.

• Slower food price inflation nibbled the EA rate down to 2.1% in October, while services increased to their fastest pace since April. Labour costs are still rising too fast.
• Underlying inflation metrics are broadly a bit beyond target, risking a slight overshoot in the medium term, but the median impulse is reassuring, weighed down by France.
• Energy prices are set to bump inflation around the target in 2026, averaging above the consensus in our view. The ECB would need tightness elsewhere to shift rates, though.

• Global oil outlooks diverged in November as the EIA cut demand forecasts, and the IEA lifted projections. However, both agencies expect supply to grow faster than demand.
• The EIA, IEA, and OPEC flag a rising risk of oversupply heading into 2026, noting that expanding production and already-elevated inventories could keep the market looser.
• Strong U.S. LNG exports prompted the EIA to raise its Henry Hub forecasts, signalling price strength will rely more on robust export demand than on domestic consumption this winter.

• In Depth: China Puts Industry, Consumers at Heart of Next Five-Year Plan
• Investors Flock to Chinese eVTOLs Chasing Regulatory Green Lights
• Hong Kong Expected to Swing to Budget Surplus on Stock Market Boom

• Bank Indonesia paused rate cuts at 4.75%, shifting focus from growth to rupiah stability. This outcome was no surprise to the consensus as external risks intensified.​
• Further easing depends on rupiah stabilisation, not inflation alone. Elevated term premia and expanded FX operations reflect caution.​
• Macroprudential incentives and FX measures aim to support growth while monitoring weak credit transmission after previous rate cuts.

• Metals X shareholder and non-executive chair of Mount Gibson interviewed about the company’s journey and capital allocation
• Discusses turning around Metals X from a complicated company with distressed assets to a streamlined operation with focus on tin asset
• Successfully sold off Nifty and Wingona Nickel Cobalt assets, spun off Wingollina into a separate listed company, and retained convertible notes for return on investment

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• Crude oil futures ended lower Wednesday as benchmarks remained under pressure from oversupply fears and uncertainty around the global economic outlook.
• Front-month Jan26 ICE Brent futures were trading at $63.49/b (1950 GMT) versus Tuesday’s settle of $64.89/b, while Dec25 NYMEX WTI was at $59.25/b against a previous close of $60.74/b.
• Markets remain torn between the flagged surplus through 2026 and growing supply risks from a variety of geopolitical events, particularly tighter measures on Russian exports.

• The dollar has strengthened in the face of weakening equity markets, however it is not the Dollar Smile theory supporting its move this time.
• A more hawkish Fed signals a break with past conditioning for a Fed Put to bail out the stock market.  Post-COVID inflation caused by Fed policies will constrain aggressive easing.
• Safe-Haven support for the dollar and Treasuries broke down during the April selloff, indicating a change in foreigners’ perception of holding USD assets and leading to significantly increased dollar hedging.

• How China Unlocked Simandou to Reshape the Global Iron Ore Trade. On an October morning along the Atlantic coast of West Africa, a bulk carrier named Winning Youth waited quietly in the port of Morebaya.
• It carried nearly 10,000 metric tons of blood-red earth, freshly extracted from deep inside Guinea’s remote southeastern mountains.
• The iron ore, loaded days earlier on to the first train to run on the Trans-Guinea Railway, had traveled hundreds of kilometers across ridges to reach this point.

• Surging U.S. LNG exports, stronger power demand, and shifting weather models have tightened fundamentals, driving Henry Hub futures to near three-year highs despite record output and above-average storage levels.
• Henry Hub’s rally since mid-October has been driven by record LNG exports and colder winter forecasts, which outweighed rising U.S. production and above-average storage levels.
• Options positioning shows short-term caution but growing medium-term optimism, with higher call interest across later contracts signaling expectations for firmer Henry Hub prices into early-2026.

• Crude oil futures ended lower Monday despite rebounding from a soft start in response to reports crude loadings had resumed at the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk.
• Front-month Jan25 ICE Brent futures were trading at $64.09/b (2031 GMT) versus Friday’s settle of $64.39/b, while Dec25 NYMEX WTI settled at $59.91/b against a previous close of $60.09/b.
• Ship tracking data showed two oil tankers had docked at Novorossiysk over the weekend, while Reuters quoted local officials saying that crude loadings had resumed following Friday’s drone strikes.

• Asian IPOs’ spike in 2025 (21% higher till October) has been driven primarily by HK/China. Indian IPOs are almost at the same level as in a very strong 2024.
• Policy thrust for “New Productive Forces” are driving capital raising from industrials, materials, technology and utilities and shall continue to do so. Healthcare should also be a buoyant capital raiser.
• India’s policy focus on manufacturing and listing of PE-funded companies should drive IPOs from industrials, materials and consumer discretionary. Financials shall also remain a large issuer sector.

• Crude oil futures ended higher after a soft trading session earlier when immediate concerns around disruptions to Russian crude receded as loadings resumed from the crucial Novorossiysk port.
• Front-month Jan26 ICE Brent futures were last trading at $65/b (2017 GMT) versus Monday’s settle of $64.20/b, while Dec25 NYMEX WTI was at $60.78/b against a previous close of $59.91/b.
• Benchmarks have struggled in the early part of the week after loadings resumed from the key Black Sea oil hub following a two-day suspension in the wake of drone strikes.

• IMF’s mission in Cairo early December.                           
• CBE sees the financing gap increasing for the next 2 years.
• The Pound deals below 47, best since May 2024. Offshore investors keep buying bills.

• Japan has intentionally stepped into the middle of the geopolitical battle between the U.S. and China with Prime Minister Takaichi’s policy-changing Taiwan comments to Japan’s parliament.
• China’s retaliation has been swift and tactical, issuing travel warnings, high-level diplomatic reprimands, and conducting military exercises near the Senkaku Islands.  China has promised a continuing substantial and broad-based response.
• We expect China’s response to include rare earth export and Japanese trade restrictions and targeted boycotts of Japanese goods on the mainland.

• Concerns about excessive investment activity have occurred before in US economic and financial history. Relative to GDP, the current AI-related infrastructure spending binge already exceeds the internet bubble. 
• Unlike Japan in the late 1980s, US AI-related infrastructure spending has largely been financed by free cash flow, but debt funding has been rising, thereby raising some concerns.
• Assessing AI’s impact on earnings growth is complcated by increased circularity within the ecosystem. Metrics are not showing that US equities are in a bubble similar to the late 1990s.

• It was reported that the Chinese government advised its citizens to refrain from traveling to Japan, which is likely to positively benefit the Korea in-bound tourism related stocks.
• If the political tensions between China and Japan are not quickly resolved but continues to last, this would have further negative impact on the Japanese consumer/tourism/leisure related companies. 
• On the flip side, this could have a positive impact on the Korean consumer/tourism/leisure related companies such as Lotte Tour Development, Hotel Shilla, and Paradise. 

• TOP STORY China Should Launch Property Tax at ‘Appropriate Time,’ Ex-Finance Chief Says A nationwide property tax, though difficult to implement amid an ongoing real estate downturn, should be rolled out at an “appropriate time,” a former Chinese finance minister said Friday.
• China’s Property Transition Will Take at Least Five More Years, Ex-Finance Chief Says China’s property market downturn will persist and its transition to a new model will not be completed in the short term, requiring expansionary fiscal policy and structural reforms, according to former Finance Minister Lou Jiwei.
• FINANCE & ECONOMY China’s Securities Chief Makes Global Pitch in Paris, Rio Wu Qing, chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC), traveled to Paris and Rio de Janeiro this week in a bid to strengthen cross-border financial cooperation and boost foreign investor confidence.

• China’s bank-centric funding model is an under-reported risk that appears to be lost amidst the current rally in Chinese stocks
• While it powered China’s investment boom previously, this model now misallocates capital, warehouses property losses on bank balance sheets, blunts PBoC easing, prolongs deflation risks and echoes Japan-style balance-sheet stagnation
• Without credible bank clean-up and a shift toward bond, equity and REIT funding, China’s rally risks remaining tactical rather than structural. The current rally does not signal a multi-year bull-run

• Thailand’s rubber exports up by .5% MoM to 204,095 MT in Sept

• Chinese imports decline while US imports sharply rise

• Significant disruption to production due to rains

  Thailand, which continued to witness unusually heavy rains during its ongoing production season, saw rubber export volume increasing marginally from August to September, while the returns also increased correspondingly as tight supply prevented prices from falling further.

• The combination of positive price and fundamental momentum points to a rally into year-end.
• Sentiment readings are not extended, which is supportive of a beta performance chase
• There are also early signs of a leadership shift from growth to value, indicating broadening breadth, but that’s not a necessary condition for an additional price advance.

• The economy is undergoing a K-shaped expansion. While the top-end consumer is doing well, the middle and bottom ends are struggling.
• Equity investors are still enjoying AI-related gains driven by the promise of productivity gains.
• While the employment market appears weak, there are also signs that the jobs market may be improving, which could lift the bottom of the K in 2026.

• Crude oil futures on Friday continued to recover from three-week lows as Russian supply disruptions and broader geopolitical concerns got the better of oversupply fears at least for the day Front-month Jan25 ICE Brent futures were trading at $64.35/b (2015 GMT) versus Thursday’s settle of $63.01/b, while Dec25 NYMEX WTI was at $60.04/b against a previous close of $59.70/b.
• The latest drone strike from Ukraine targeted the Black Sea export hub of Novorossiysk overnight Thursday.
• Multiple reports, including from Russian and Ukraine media, reported a major blaze at the terminal, suggesting significant disruption in loading crude from the Black Sea hub.

• The trade war detente between the US and China is over. US legislation to further restrict China’s access to chips was initiated the day after the Busan meeting.
• China is formulating its US-style Validated End User (VEU) system for Rare Earth Element (REE) exports, which will restrict shipments for US military use.
• The real conflict between the US and China over technology and rare earths is likely to involve many volatile periods in the coming year as both attempt to achieve self-sufficiency.

• A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook
• We highlight a  commodity sector with  a strong risk-reward ratio
• Precious metals have likely just completed Wave B of their correction

• The US government reopened after some of those seeking to expand the state inevitably broke ranks to reverse some shrinkage, although the fight could resume in January.
• UK activity data were broadly disappointing as unemployment rose and GDP fell at the end of Q3, after downwards revisions helped realign with the residual seasonality.
• Next week’s UK inflation data will be more insightful for the BoE’s hawks and us. The belated release of US macro data will probably be more substantive market news.

• Chinese purchases of US agricultural products are expected to increase gradually but may take time due to seasonality and price competitiveness
• US farmers may see more optimism in the 2026-2027 season as trade discussions with China improve and market participation increases
• The complex nature of US-China trade relations and the continued volatility in the agricultural markets make for a clouded outlook, but there is potential for growth and market shifts in the near future.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• The U.S. Administration is reducing tariffs previously imposed on LATAM in an effort to lower inflation and reverse plunging consumer confidence.
• President Trump announced tariff exemptions for agricultural imports from certain Latin American countries in an admission that the US will not strive to be self-sufficient in all agricultural products.
• U.S. stock market volatility is increasing even though many of the Administration’s previously announced tariffs have been reduced or eliminated, an ominous signal for investors.

• Total earnings in nine months of 2025 surge by 38% to US$549 million  
• Domestic consumption surges 102% year-on-year to 86,539 tons  
• New highly productive clones set to hit plantations, boosting sector  

• In Depth: Are China’s Futuristic EV Designs Sacrificing Safety for Style?
• Former IPO Gatekeeper Unreachable Amid China’s Corruption Crackdown
• Analysis: China’s New Five-Year Plan Aims to Fix Its Spending Problem

• UK GDP disappointed in Q3 at 0.1% q-o-q after the ONS revised away August’s surprise resilience and led it into a slight September fall, setting up for a soft Q4 too.
• Residual seasonality in service sector growth has reasserted itself on the average post-pandemic path. So statistical stories seem more plausible than fundamental ones.
• Weakness in labour market activity is more relevant. The hawkish half of the MPC probably needs disinflationary news to support a cut, but the Governor seems swayed.

• In Depth: Tech Self-Reliance, AI Take Spotlight in China’s Five-Year Plan
• In Depth: Fugitive Couple Reemerges at the Helm of Volatile Nasdaq Firm
• China Moves to Spur Private Investment With Market Access, Financial Aid

• Corporate lending to remain key driver for Saudi banks’ growth.        

• Lifetime residency for foreign buyers of properties in Saudi Arabia.

• The IEA sees possibility for oil demand to grow till 2050.

• Crude oil futures rebounded slightly Thursday from the previous-session’s slump, although the supply-glut narrative continued to outweigh Russian disruptions and elevated refining margins.
• Front-month Jan25 ICE Brent futures was trading at $62.98/b (2130 GMT) versus Monday’s settle of $62.71/b, while Dec25 NYMEX WTI settled at $58.69/b against a previous close of $58.49/b.
• Benchmarks edged higher but not before testing fresh three-week lows early in the session, with the excess capacity in the system expected to comfortably cover any losses caused to Russian supplies by the latest sanctions.

• The Hong Kong market is consolidating with rotational buying into value and high dividend factor investments.  Mainland buying has slowed and diversified away from tech into low volatility names.
• After leading the market for nine months, growth and momentum factors turned down sharply in October.  The energy sector is showing increased strength and momentum, while tech and healthcare lag.
• Xinyi Solar Holdings (968 HK) had a technical breakout after forming a Golden Cross with a rebound off its 50 day-moving-average. The share price is benefiting from anti-involution policies.

• Most analysis of Opec+’s 2 November decision is as overly simplistic as the cartel’s public justifications. Calling an unwinding ‘time out’ in 2026Q1 is by no means unwise.
• Most notably — and despite continuing economic and political uncertainty — it is very likely that the market will be awash with oil in any case for some months to come.
• In other words, the cartel may already have done enough to achieve its primary objective, i.e. clawing back market share at the expense of US shale producers.

• Global copper demand is stabilising after months of weakness, even as inventories thin out. The ICSG now expects a 150,000-ton deficit in 2026, reversing its earlier forecast of a surplus.
• A softer dollar and expectations of continued Fed easing are improving the backdrop for commodities. The copper–gold ratio sits near 30-year lows, signalling room for mean reversion.
• The bullish setup hinges on growth holding up and exceeding the rate of growth of China. Electrification to be the biggest driver.

• In the second half of October, inflation stood at 0.14% bw, reflecting lower pressures on agricultural products.
• As a result, headline inflation declined to 3.50% YoY, leaving room for Banco de México to deliver another rate cut at its December meeting.
• Typically, inflation for this period averages 0.14% bw. 

• ADD Probe into Rubber Glove Imports from Malaysia, Thailand  
• Finance Ministry imposes new duty on insoluble sulphur  
• DGTR Recommends Continuation of Duties on NBR Imports  

• Crude oil futures were sliding lower Wednesday with benchmarks failing to hold the early-week gains as traders eyed the impact of Russian sanctions against the supply glut.
• Front-month Jan25 ICE Brent futures were trading at $62.63/b (2151 GMT) versus Tuesday’s settle of $65.15/b, while Dec25 NYMEX WTI was at $58.40/b against a previous close of $61.04/b.
• Sentiment had improved at the start of the week with the US government shutdown set to end, while tighter sanctions on Russia have started to disrupt supplies.