Macro

• Markets danced the Hokey Pokey to a drumbeat of lawfare and whimsical Presidential decrees. Tariffs were in, out, out, in, with tired pricing relatively unchanged overall.
• Underlying GDP trends remain unbroken by the disruptive announcements of recent months, with the superior US productivity performance still internationally enticing.
• Next week’s ECB rate cut remains one of the least uncertain macro stories. However, guidance should be much more hesitant about cutting again, while leaning that way.

• U.S. Q1 GDP fell slightly, distorted by a sharp 42% surge in imports ahead of tariff changes.

• Korea cut rates to 2.5%, with further easing expected to support weak investment.

• Global trade disruptions continue to fuel economic uncertainty and complicate forecasting.

• Corruption / In Depth: Court sounds alarm about corruption in big tech.
• It revealed that in the four years through 2024 the court handled 127 criminal cases involving corruption in the industry.
• The district hosts many internet companies’ offices, both headquarters and local branches.

• Vietnam, Thailand, Cambodia to receive above normal rains  
• Neutral phase of ENSO with La Nina like pattern favoring rains  
•  Weather portends a reasonable production season for Ivory Coast  

• Real GDP grew 7.4%YoY in Q4/FY25 with PCE and GFCF growing 7%+, bringing FY25 growth to 6.5%, and the 4yr moving average of real GDP growth to 8.25% for FY22-FY25. 
• Manufacturing decelerated to 4.5% growth in FY25 (from 12.3% in FY24), as high interest rates constrained GFCF, until a 25bp cut in Feb’25 enabled GFCF to rebound 9.4% in Q4/FY25.
• With interest rates set to decline 100bp from Apr-Dec’25, GFCF should grow 10.5% in FY26, while PCE accelerates to 7.5% growth, enabling real GDP to grow 8.5% in FY26.

• US is focusing on propelling growth with tax cuts, ignoring the debt problem. The obvious consequence, more USD depreciation, could drive more money from US assets into Asia and Europe.
• If 1% of US free float market cap flows into Asia, it would constitute 7.2% of Asia’s market cap. That’s more than 5x the highest ever annual Asian FII inflow.
• Taiwan, Korea and India have seen the biggest FII flow revival. To sidestep the deleterious effect of sharp USD appreciation on Asian exports, investors should play China, India, Indonesia, Philippines.

• Daniel Dicker is a seasoned oil trader and expert on energy markets
• Oil has become less important in the macro landscape, with its influence on stocks decreasing over the years
• Oil’s current price fluctuations are driven more by supply and demand factors rather than financial speculation, with no signs of improvement in the near future, despite recent macro developments.

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• Happy Wednesday from Copenhagen.
• Trump now has to deal with a reality where Russia is not going to end this war without being forced to—probably always the case—but Trump allowed himself to be friend-zoned by Putin in the run-up to these peace talks.
• Various media outlets have already reported that a sanctions package is being prepared to put pressure on Russia, and in the following, we’ll try to assess the potential content and ramifications of such a package.

• Imports frontloaded before tariff rises seemingly disappeared in broadly unrevised US GDP data. Underperformance is exaggerated as an unwind, or revisions, are likely in Q2.
• Final domestic private sales maintained their rudely bullish US trend while drifting back towards stagnation in the EA and are distorted by residual seasonality in the UK.
• Superior US productivity trends preserve its structural attractiveness. Unemployment’s stability also suggests monetary conditions are near neutral, with easing unnecessary.

• There is a supply demand mismatch globally, particularly at the long end of the curve
• Rising term premiums are a concern, especially in the US due to fiscal uncertainty
• While the speed of the recent moves is notable, there are no major financial stability concerns in the US, but Japan may need to take action to address volatility in the super long sector

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• Global dry bulk trade is facing its sharpest contraction in nearly a decade, with year-to-date 2025 volumes down 1.5%, according to DBX data.
• This decline is primarily driven by weakening demand from China, rising domestic production in key markets, geopolitical instability, and weather-related disruptions.
• Coal, iron ore, and grain exports have borne the brunt, while bauxite flows remain robust. 

• The Bank of Korea reduced its base rate by 25bp to 2.50%, as widely anticipated, in response to a marked deterioration in growth prospects and persistent domestic demand weakness.
• While inflation remains stable and near target, the MPC flagged rising household debt and FX volatility as key risks, indicating future rate decisions will carefully weigh financial stability against the need for further stimulus.
• The policy outlook remains dovish, but the pace and extent of additional easing will depend on incoming economic data, developments in global trade policy, and the evolution of financial market risks.

• Steel /In Depth: British Steel takeover leaves Chinese firm in limbo
• Wanda /: Wanda to sell 48 malls to ease debt woes
• ID /China stresses soon-to-launch national digital ID will be voluntary
• Interest rate /Commentary: Is China headed for a zero interestrate era?

• For the week ending 23/May, U.S. crude inventories fell by 2.8m barrels (vs. expectations of a 1m barrel build). Meanwhile, gasoline and distillate stockpiles unexpectedly fell.
• The EIA reported a 101 Bcf storage build, slightly more than the 98 Bcf forecast. Storage levels are 3.9% above the five-year average.
• Chevron will cut 800 Texas jobs in an effort to reduce its global workforce by 20%. TotalEnergies is selling its 12.5% Nigerian offshore stake to Shell for USD 510 million.

• Yield steepenings may be linked to fears of fiscal profligacy and concerns of inflation expectations
• US Exceptionalism theme unraveling, dollar facing downward pressure
• US tax bill moving through House, expected to have modest stimulative economic impact

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• Concerns about US fiscal policy have pushed term premium higher in the US, leading to a steeper yield curve globally.
• US-China tariff de-escalation and improved sentiment have reduced recession risks in the US, leading to higher GDP forecasts and reduced easing expectations from central banks.
• In Sweden, GDP forecasts have been revised higher, with a 25 basis point rate cut expected from the Riksbank in June. Opportunities in Sweden include cautious long positions in duration.

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• Field latex cross INR 200 (US$2.34) mark, sheet still short of it  
• Over 40% of smallholders complete rainguarding as rains set in  
• Compound rubber import worries farmers, traders  

• In this insight, we provide five major factors that may have caused higher share price movements (up 7.6%) of 10 major Korean holdcos/quasi holdcos today.
• This is the best one day share price performance on average for these stocks so far in 2025.
• Emphasis on improving corporate governance by both leading Presidential candidates and potential mandatory cancellation of treasury shares are among the five major factors. 

• The speaker discusses events surrounding the downgrade of the US economy and the response from government officials
• The speaker highlights the increasing adoption and performance of bitcoin compared to traditional assets like gold
• The discussion transitions to the business efforts and partnership of Lisa and Dan, who met at a Houston bitcoin meetup in 2021.

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• Technical analysis can help you keep your zen as it cuts through the noise by providing a set of rules on when to buy, sell, or just sit tight.
• There are many technical indicators, but using both the simple moving average and the moving average convergence divergence can tell you most of what you need to know
• Here’s how the two indicators work, what makes them so effective when using them together, and a look at a few major stock ETFs,  gold, bitcoin, and the Mag 7.

• Australia’s active global fund ownership has dropped to record lows of 38.55%, with average weight halving from pre-2020 levels. 
• Major underweights persist across Financials, especially the four big banks at record-low ownership levels. 
• Insurance names like QBE and Suncorp see modest rebounds, but Australia remains stuck between growth and value headwinds.

• Central Bank Rate Decisions, including from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), the Bank of Japan, and the Fed.
• Index Rebalancings for the Australian, Indian, Hong Kong, and US benchmark indices. 
• Elections: South Korea Presidential Elections on 3 June; potential for the opposition party to win the presidency.

• 12th May: Cobalt Holdings, a Company created primarily to purchase and hold physical cobalt, offering public equity investors pure-play direct exposure to the price of cobalt, confirmed its intention to raise approximately US$230m through its Global Offer and the Admission on to the Main Market in June 2025.
• Glencore International AG and certain entities and affiliates managed by Anchorage Structured Commodities Advisor, have agreed to participate as cornerstone investors, agreeing to invest, in aggregate, an amount representing approximately 20.5% of the Shares to be offered pursuant to the Global Offer.
• 9th May: iFOREX Financial Trading, the fintech business with a proprietary online and mobile trading platform for multi-asset contracts for difference, announces that it has confirmed its intention to IPO onto the Main Market.

• The RBNZ reduced the Official Cash Rate by 25 basis points to 3.25%, in line with consensus expectations, citing subdued core inflation, spare economic capacity, and global headwinds.
• The decision, reached by a 5-1 majority, reflects internal debate over the pace of easing and a shift toward a more data-dependent policy approach, with no explicit guidance on further rate cuts.
• Evolving global trade tensions will influence future interest rate decisions, domestic inflation expectations, and the pace of economic recovery, with the OCR projected to reach 3.00% by year-end but subject to heightened uncertainty.

• Ursula von der Leyen had a call with Donald Trump on 25 May.
• The call can be interpreted as a ‘win’ for Trump as he had threatened to impose 50% tariffs on the EU from 1 June.
• Another perspective could be that Trump’s reversion is a new manifestation of the TACO principle.

• Morning from Europe.
• Trump’s classical stop-and-go approach to negotiations is starting to get baked into markets, but we’re still surprised by the extent of market moves when these impulsive threats are announced on Truth Social — and markets remain poor at assessing the “realistic outcomes” of this approach.
• On Friday, markets at one point priced in a 40–60% probability that 50% tariffs on the EU would actually take effect on June 1.

• Korea Exchange announced its KOSPI200 rebalance changes on 27 May. It added 8 companies and deleted 8 companies. KRX also added 9 companies and deleted 9 companies in KOSDAQ 150. 
• These 8 new inclusions in KOSPI200 are up on average 49.8% in the past one year. The 8 deletions to KOSPI200 are down on average 45.2% in the past one year.
• There were numerous surprises to the KOSDAQ150 rebalances.  In particular, three companies are relative surprises to the KOSDAQ150 additions including Solid Inc, Zeus Co, and Wemade Max.   

• ASEAN’s underperformance could continue. The low growth region is facing the additional risk of increasing Chinese exports, which could dent domestic companies’ revenues and margins and engender a deflationary spiral.
• China exports more to ASEAN than to the US or EU. Margin pressure in consumer and industrials is palpable. Thailand is in deflation and inflation is nosediving in the region.
• We recommend playing the region through markets with low China import intensity (Indonesia, Philippines) and through consumer services and select banks. We have Digiplus, DBS, BCA in our model portfolio.

• Global base oils prices mostly hold firm vs feedstock/gasoil prices.
• Firm margins in Asia and Europe point to still-tight supply-demand fundamentals, incentivizing refiners to maintain high output levels.
• Weaker margins in US point to diverging fundamentals compared with other regions.

• In April 2025, global coal markets showed a diverging trend between thermal and metallurgical segments.
• Thermal coal remained under pressure amid softening prices, high stockpiles in China and India, and collapsing power demand in Europe, where electricity generation fell sharply due to warm weather, a major blackout in Spain, and ongoing economic stagnation in Germany.
• As a result, API2 and API4 prices slipped further, with month-ahead API2 contracts trading at $93/ton, API4 at $88/ton, and Newcastle coal easing to $95/ton, despite a brief rebound to $99 mid-month.

• Gun stores ! Trump is very explicit when he describes people that Mexico is supposed to be sending to the US. Terrorists, rapists, criminals, cartel gangs etc.
• But for all the violence coming allegedly from Mexico, there is only two legal gun stores in all of Mexico ! Two !
• In the US, there are over 17 000 gun and ammunition stores and 70 000 licensed gun dealers ! In Mexico , a dozen documents are required before being approved and it can take a few months. 

• US Group II heavy-grade base oils prices stay unusually weak relative to CFR India prices for the time of year.
• Persistent US price-discount to CFR India prices coincides with steady flow of heavy-grade base oils shipments from US to India and especially to Pakistan.
• Arbitrage shipments highlight persistent surplus of heavy-grade base oils in US market.

• US base oils prices continue to edge lower versus feedstock/competing fuel prices.
• Margins fall because of steady outright prices and higher feedstock costs.
• Margins previously rose in first few weeks of Q2 2025 because of lower feedstock costs while outright prices mostly held steady.

• US base oils demand likely to remain more muted as concern about strength of end-user consumption and expectations of improving supply incentivize buyers to maintain low stocks.
• Demand could get support from procurement of additional stocks as buffer against any weather-related supply disruptions during Atlantic hurricane season.
• Any such stock-building would be despite expectations of more readily-available supply over coming months.

• Historically, US sovereign rating changes have had no impact on fiscal policy conduct. Moody’s failed to downgrade the US sovereign credit rating when conduct was profligate during the Biden administration.
• The long end segment of the US Treasury yield curve has suffered the bulk of the fallout from the sovereign debt downgrade, although inflationary expectations in this segment remain well-anchored.
• The correlation between equities and Treasury yields has turned negative, implying headwinds for equities if yields rise. Valuations no longer favour equities against Treasuries for the first time since 2002. 

• Investments in commodities and gold as a percentage share of family offices money remain very little, as this year’s Global Family Office Report by UBS shows.
• When asked how they are defying the volatile environment, respondents most frequently cite the selection of managers and/or active management (40%), followed by hedge funds (31%).
• Almost as many family offices are increasing their holdings of illiquid assets (27%) and more than a quarter (26%) are focusing on high-quality bonds with short maturities. 

• Asia’s base oils demand likely to weaken in face of seasonal slowdown in consumption and rise in supply.
• Drop in lube demand likely to gather pace from start of Q3 2025.
• Drop in demand could be larger than usual because of weaker-than-expected economic growth.

• NR production plummets; export and import too down  
• Ivory Coast once again pips Thailand in imports  
•  Nitrile gloves posing greater threat to latex gloves

• WTI futures fell by 0.7% for the week ending 23/May due to rising U.S. crude inventories and concerns over OPEC+ raining supply.
• The U.S. rig count fell by ten to 566. The oil rig count fell by eight to 465, while gas rigs also fell by two to 98.
• WTI OI PCR remained unchanged at 0.82 on 23/May compared to 16/May. Call OI rose by 4.8% WoW, while put OI grew by 4.7%.

• For the week ending 23/May, U.S. natural gas prices remained flat despite having a volatile week. Hot summer forecasts were offset by a strong storage build.
• For the week ending 23/May, the EIA reported that U.S. natural gas inventories rose by 120 Bcf, moderately higher than analyst expectations of a 118 Bcf build.
• Henry Hub OI PCR fell to 0.89 on 23/May compared to 0.92 on 16/May. Call OI increased by 4.4% WoW, while put OI grew by 1.5%.

• A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook
• What are major global bond markets telling us about the world?
• We look at potential beneficiaries  of the next wave of inflation 

• The stock market advance is due for a pause and faces numerous headwinds.
• The rise of the bond vigilantes, elevated valuation and heightened earnings risk, and narrow leadership combined to increase risk.
• Tactically, the S&P 500 is breaking down technically a pullback wouldn’t be out of line under the circumstances.

• The Sell America investment theme is becoming as a dominant market narrative, and it’s bullish for gold.
• It is driven by the combination of rising deficits, shaky bond markets, an increasingly hawkish Fed and policy uncertainty.
• For a long-term perspective of the upside potential in gold, a point-and-figure chart of monthly gold prices shows a measured objective of almost $7,000.

• The narrative surrounding China’s front-loaded stimulus faced some headwinds as April’s total social financing (TSF) figures undershot expectations, registering 1.16 trillion yuan compared to expected 1.3-1.4 trillion yuan.
• Nonetheless, TSF remains up 28% ytd, reaching 15.2 trillion yuan, indicating a robust overall increase relative to the prior year. We expect it to pick up steam in future months. 
• We believe this will be bullish for copper pricing, coupled with the supply side sluggishness. (Read: Post Results FY24: Mine-By-Mine Plan Production + Commentary on Copper From Global Listed Companies ).

• Markets are still active, with major moves in rates and currency
• There are conflicting signals in the bond market, with concerns over inflation and the economy slowing down
• Steven Englander from Standard Chartered discusses the dynamics of JGB and UST yields

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• SLR reform is a high priority for US banking regulators, with potential changes to how Treasuries are calculated
• The timeline for SLR reform is still in the early stages, with regulatory processes and personnel confirmations needing to be completed first
• Potential scenarios for SLR reform include carving out reserves and dealer holdings of Treasuries from the SLR denominator to address liquidity and market functioning concerns

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• As the earnings season draws to a close, we look at Asian markets’/sectors’ EPS estimate progression during the reporting season and earlier. Specifically, we search for upward or downward inflections.
• Korea and Taiwan had the strongest EPS upgrades during this reporting season, despite the trade uncertainties. Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia also had decent upgrades. HK/China and India continue to be downgraded.
• Korean and Taiwanese technology, Korean industrials, HK Technology Services had strong upgrades. So did Singapore and Philippines financials, and Thailand Communications – the latter two with a long upgrade history.

• Jitters over the sustainability of US fiscal easing knocked equities and the dollar over the past week. Dovish BoE pricing was pared back further towards our contrarian call.
• UK inflation exceeded our already elevated forecast, while the manufacturing PMIs were broadly resilient again in May. UK retail data were also sensationally strong.
• Next week is relatively quiet and shortened by a bank holiday. Flash inflation for some euro member states, updated US GDP data, and the RBNZ decision are our highlights.

• Disappointing industrial production and consumer spending data from China, along with stagnant new housing prices, dampened investor sentiment.
• Steel consumption remains robust even amid China’s property sector woes, as elevated mill activity and profitability at 60% of blast-furnace plants highlight the market’s core strength.
• On the technical front, current prices remain above the 21-day and 50-day moving averages, suggesting a positive short-to-mid-term trend.

• Slipping butadiene costs impact prices of SBR, BR and NBR  
• Near steady domestic production fails to match rise in consumption  
• EPDM, Silicone Rubber prices near stable since February  

• Intel / In Depth: Intel’s China partners expect new chief to usher in growth 
• Exporters /In Depth: China’s export engine reboots cautiously after tariff truce
• Fraud /: China’s senior living scandal deepens as elder care giant faces fraud probe

• For the week ending 16/May, U.S. crude inventories grew by 1.3m barrels (vs. expectations of a 0.9m barrel fall). Similarly, gasoline and distillate stockpiles unexpectedly rose.
• The EIA reported a 120 Bcf storage build, exceeding analyst forecasts of an 118 Bcf increase. Storage levels are 3.9% above the five-year average.
• Barclays initiated coverage on Saudi Aramco with an ‘Overweight’ rating. Jefferies downgraded BP to ‘Hold’ from ‘Buy’, and Citigroup lifted its price target on Occidental Petroleum.

• Greetings from Copenhagen.
• We’ve previously advocated a long tilt toward commodities, as both the U.S. and global growth outlooks are being repriced amid the reopening of trade and the sudden realization that the U.S., China, and even Europe have collectively slammed the deficit accelerator—rather than the brakes.
• Everywhere you look, countries are ramping up fiscal spending to cushion the blow of tariffs.

• Broad improvements in the flash manufacturing PMIs demonstrate ongoing resilience relative to consumers’ bad vibes. Goods trade seemingly shrugged off the tariff shock.
• The UK was alone in weakening, but it is more susceptible to bad vibes, showing more noise than signal. April’s spurious lows were revised away and may repeat or rebound.
• Transmission to unemployment also isn’t happening, leaving little case for easing unless recessionary pressures build, and the PMIs still hawkishly suggest that isn’t the case.

• Power / In Depth: Chinese tech giants’ struggle to power AI data center boom
• Tariff /: China’s EV-battery makers get only temporary relief from U.S. tariff truce
• Crypto /In Depth: Are Hong Kong’s crypto licenses worth it?

• Wheat: Futures at $4.90/bushel (lowest since mid-2020), reflecting ample global supply and subdued demand. U.S. production is projected to rise by 2% in 2025, though exports are expected to struggle against strong Russian competition.
• Corn: Prices fell from $4.82/bu in April to $4.46/bu in May, driven by robust U.S. planting and higher production estimates from Brazil and Argentina. Despite the dip, USDA’s forecast of the lowest U.S. ending stocks in three years underscores tightening supply.
• Soybeans: Climbed to $10.80/bushel in early May, the highest since July 2024, supported by U.S.-China tariff adjustments and solid Chinese demand for South American soy.

• Our above-consensus forecast was exceeded by UK inflation flying higher in April amid administered price rises and postponed price increases due to the late Easter in 2025.
• Airfares still soared 10pp more than the norm for a late Easter, and 20pp above the April average. This stoked service and core inflation, although the median was steadier.
• We expect inflation to grind up until October, whereas the consensus assumes stability until then. Persistently excessive inflation should discourage the BoE from cutting again.

• EPA regulation targeted previously unregulated emissions  
•  USTMA calls it regulatory overreach that shoots up costs  
• Move can bolster domestic manufacturing, competitiveness

• Korea Exchange plans to announce the first rebalance of the “Korea Value Up Index” next week on 27 May. The actual rebalance is expected to take place on 13 June.
• Korea Exchange plans to reduce the constituents to 100 (from 105 currently) and change 30% of the included stocks in this index to better reflect the Value Up program incentives. 
• In this insight, we provide a list of 20 potential exclusion candidates and 20 inclusion candidates in the Value Up index rebalance. 

CATL /In Depth: Why CATL is so revved up about battery swapping stations

Drug prices /: How Trump’s proposed price cuts could hurt China’s innovative drugmakers

Law /: China to overhaul Prison Law in push for greater transparency

• Bank Indonesia cut the BI-Rate by 25 basis points to 5.50%, matching consensus forecasts and resuming monetary easing after a three-meeting pause, citing controlled inflation and rupiah stability.
• The decision was driven by subdued inflation, a stabilised currency, and weaker-than-expected GDP growth, with BI revising its 2025 growth forecast slightly downward and emphasising the need to support domestic demand.
• Future interest rate policy will remain data-dependent, with further easing possible if inflation and currency stability persist. Still, BI is expected to proceed cautiously given ongoing global uncertainties and the need to safeguard external resilience.

• A glance at the growth-adjusted valuations of the Asian markets reveals that Korea and China are undervalued and India, Thailand, Singapore and Malaysia are overvalued.
• We take a granular look at long histories of each market’s relative valuations, and their medium-term trends relative to long term averages. We combine the conclusions with growth-adjusted valuation outlook.
• We conclude that HK/China, Korea, Indonesia and Philippines could be in for rerating in the near term. Derating could be on the cards for India, Singapore and Thailand.

• The US has been extremely active in the international arena in recent weeks, particularly in trade and diplomacy.
• Showmanship is currently taking precedence over substance in these activities.
• This approach poses significant risks for both policymakers and investors.

• The latest BofA survey showed that the consensus trade continues to be “long gold” with 58% of participants surveyed, followed by only 22% “long mag 7”.
• According to the analysis, gold is now more overvalued than ever before (since data was recorded in 2008). At the same time, positioning in the US dollar fell to a 19-year low.
• The positioning in gold is even that extreme that it pulled the entire commodity basket up with it – relative to equities.

• Lundin Mining (LUN CN) provided future guidance for up to 500,000 tons/year of production from the current levels of 300,000-330,000 tons/year.
• Near-Term guidance has the company maintaining the 300,000-ton production level until at least 2027, with the technical report on Vicuna mines expected to be completed by Q1 2026.
• Post Results FY24: Mine-By-Mine Plan Production + Commentary on Copper From Global Listed Companies highlights a 3% supply growth and the market moving into a deficit.

• US Group II base oils price-premium to vacuum gasoil trends higher in recent weeks compared with Q1 2025, even with dip in premium in mid-May.
• Group II domestic/export price premium trends higher after holding in relatively narrow range from mid-Nov 2024 to end-Q1 2025.
• Narrow range contrasts with steeper fall in Group II export price-premium to VGO in Q4 2023 and Q1 2024, followed by sharper recovery from end-Q1 2024.

• Global base oils prices hold firm vs feedstock/competing fuel prices even as they edge lower.
• Firm base oils values point to tight supply-demand fundamentals, incentivize refiners to maintain high output.
• Base oils values hold firm ahead of typical seasonal slowdown in demand in coming weeks in Asia, and from start of Q3 in Europe/US.

• China’s industrial output grew 6.1% YoY in April 2025, surpassing expectations but slowing from March’s 7.7% surge, as the economy sustained steady growth amid complex domestic and external challenges. 
• Retail sales growth slowed to 5.1% in April, missing expectations despite government stimulus. Cautious consumer sentiment persists amid economic challenges, subdued income growth, and concerns over U.S. tariffs.
• Easing U.S.-China tensions are boosting Chinese market confidence, driving up steel production and iron ore demand. With inventories thinning, spot buyers may bid aggressively, lifting prices in the near term.

• China’s exporters do not share the same optimism as financial markets with respect to recent tariff truce with the US. Exporters expect more turbulence as the tariff truce nears expiration.
• Higher direct investment by Chinese companies into the US via joint ventures and technology transfers could be a win-win outcome for both sides, given China’s low level of direct investment.
• Alignment of economic interests could soften the blow to the global economy due to a smaller US trade deficit, involving China boosting consumption and the US boosting investment to export.

• Morning from Copenhagen ahead of a big week.
• I was coincidentally sitting in front of the screens when Moody’s announced its downgrade of the US late in the Friday session, and the timing was admittedly peculiar—with just 5–10 minutes left of futures trading before the closing bell.
• Back in August 2023, when Fitch downgraded the US, it did spark a mild risk-off environment, with the long end of the yield curve continuing its upward trend.

• India’s economy is projected to continue the growing trends of past years, according to the IMF, with growth rates of real GDP of 6.20%, 6.27% and 6.47% in years 2025, 2026 and 2027 respectively, resulting to an all-time- high real GDP level of 225.778 trillion Indian Rupees.
• Except for this, the country’s GDP per capita is also to reach all-time highs, from 130,336 Indian Rupees in 2024 all the way to 152,596 Indian Rupees in 2027.
• The inflation rate in the last quarter of 2024 stood at 1.47% (QoQ), a lot higher than the same quarter of the previous year (0.13%- Q4 of 2023), but still lower than Q3 of 2025 which was 2.76%.