Macro

In today’s briefing:

Pretexts, My Dear Boy, Pretexts
Overview #23 Gold, Bonds and the USD

Pretexts, My Dear Boy, Pretexts

By Thomas Lam

The financial shock and greater uncertainty, all else equal, imply a disinflationary backdrop
The current trade posture alone implies either a one-off or a more persistent inflationary environment
But comprehending the shocks might not be the real challenge, rather it is about unraveling what is harnessed as a pretext and what is not

Overview #23 Gold, Bonds and the USD

By Rikki Malik

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes or outlook
Gold is now considered the most crowded trade. Should we be worried?
Who is going to buy US government bonds going forward?

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Apr 18

Daily Brief Macro: Smartkarma Webinar | ASEAN Markets Outlook: Drivers and more

In today’s briefing:

Smartkarma Webinar | ASEAN Markets Outlook: Drivers, Policies & Risks in 2025
Argentina: The First Domino How Freedom, Discipline, and Bitcoin Are Rewriting the EM Playbook
ECB: Cutting In Shadow of Shocks
The Drill: A rush for gold amidst a geopolitical circus unfolding
Fenix Resources (FEX AU): Q3 FY25 Concall Update + CZR News
[ETP 2025/16] WTI Eyes First Weekly Gain in April; Mild Forecasts Drag Down Henry Hub
US Retail Sales Trends Grew 3.6% in 1Q
Mid-Month Electric Two-Wheeler Update: Bajaj Auto and TVS Motor Witness Steep Decline
Korea: Policy Rate Held At 2.75% (Consensus 2.75%) in Apr-25
CX Daily: China’s First-Quarter GDP Jumps 5.4% Ahead of Tariff Storm

Smartkarma Webinar | ASEAN Markets Outlook: Drivers, Policies & Risks in 2025

By Smartkarma Research

In the next installment of our Webinar series, in collaboration with ASEAN Exchanges, we go live with Smartkarma Insight Provider Manishi Raychaudhuri.

The ASEAN region is expected to witness positive economic growth in the coming years, driven by robust domestic demand, increasing foreign investments, and government initiatives to boost economic activities.
However, challenges like trade turmoil, poor consumer confidence, and potential deflation need to be addressed to sustain and enhance the markets’ attractiveness.

Join us as Dr. Manishi Raychaudhuri shares his outlook on capital markets across ASEAN, including timely insights on sector trends, policy shifts, and future risks shaping investment opportunities in the ASEAN-6.

The webinar will be hosted on Monday, 28 April 2025, 16:30 SGT/HKT.

Register for the Webinar here

Dr. Manishi Raychaudhuri possesses nearly three decades of experience in Asian Equities in the roles of APAC Head of Equity Research, Asian Equity Strategist and Analyst across various sectors, brings a unique cross border and cross-industry perspective to the process of investment strategy and asset allocation. He worked in senior leadership roles at BNP Paribas and UBS across Mumbai and Hong Kong. Prior to UBS, he was with ICICI Securities, then a JV with JP Morgan. Manishi marries top-down macro-economic outlook with bottom-up sector themes to create unique alpha generative portfolios for clients.

Argentina: The First Domino How Freedom, Discipline, and Bitcoin Are Rewriting the EM Playbook

By Ewan Markson-Brown

Century of Decline, One Shock Reset: Argentina fell from 80% of US GDP to 25%—Milei is reversing it with fiscal shock therapy.
From Chaos to Credibility: Inflation tamed, market confidence rising—first fiscal surplus in a decade.
Decentralization, AI, and the Next Model: Tax federalism and AI governance make Argentina the first EM reform lab.

ECB: Cutting In Shadow of Shocks

The ECB’s seventh 25bp deposit rate cut to 2.25% risks becoming stimulative, but the shock from US trade policy seen through market moves demanded a response.
Central bankers are no more aware of the trade policy outlook than markets, but they are more aware of the potential inflationary effects and limits to effective easing.
Time will reveal the tariffs and impact, allowing the agile ECB to tackle this rather than just the shadow it has cast on anticipatory market pricing. We still expect a June cut.

The Drill: A rush for gold amidst a geopolitical circus unfolding

By Andreas Steno

Time for your weekly fix of what’s going on at the messy intersection of commodities and geopolitics.
Energy prices are drifting lower — just as Trump said they would — but I’m not so sure the driver is the one Trump and his team anticipated.
We’re staring down the barrel of a pretty material manufacturing slump in Q2.

Fenix Resources (FEX AU): Q3 FY25 Concall Update + CZR News

By Sameer Taneja

Fenix Resources (FEX AU) reported an increase in deliveries from Q3 FY25 to 704k tons from 346k tons/587k tons in Q1/Q2 FY25, transitioning from a 1.3 mtpa-2.8 mtpa runrate.
The company remains on track to commence production from the Beebyn W-11 mine by the September quarter of 2025, taking the annualized production rate to>4.0 mtpa.
At ~4 mtpa, we expect the mines to generate 200 mn AUD of operating cash flow (at 100 USD/ton iron ore price), equivalent to FEX’s market cap.

[ETP 2025/16] WTI Eyes First Weekly Gain in April; Mild Forecasts Drag Down Henry Hub

For the week ending 11/Apr, U.S. crude inventories rose by 0.5m barrels (vs. expectations of a 0.4m barrel rise). Gasoline and distillate stockpiles fell more than expected.
Henry Hub headed for a fourth straight daily loss, with analysts expecting a 24 Bcf build in U.S. natural gas storage for the week ending 11/Apr.
Analysts cut price targets for Exxon, Chevron, Occidental, Schlumberger, and Halliburton, while TotalEnergies expects Q1 hydrocarbon production at the high end of its guidance range.

US Retail Sales Trends Grew 3.6% in 1Q

By Water Tower Research

US retail sales (excluding autos and gasoline) increased 3.6% Y/Y in 1Q25, according to the Advance monthly retail sales data from the US Census Bureau.
This was an acceleration from the 0.2% Y/Y growth in February 2025, but more importantly, there was an acceleration in CAGR growth versus 2019 levels compared with both January and February 2025, which represented a deceleration from prior year levels (see chart on right).
Whether this acceleration was in anticipation of the impending tariffs announcement is unclear.

Mid-Month Electric Two-Wheeler Update: Bajaj Auto and TVS Motor Witness Steep Decline

By Sreemant Dudhoria

March 2025 was a great month for electric two wheeler sales. However mid month April registration numbers show steep decline in volumes.
Bajaj Auto Ltd (BJAUT IN) and TVS Motor (TVSL IN) witness steep decline in volume versus March 2025.
Ola Electric (OLAELEC IN) leads the table with the highest registration.

Korea: Policy Rate Held At 2.75% (Consensus 2.75%) in Apr-25

By Heteronomics AI

The Bank of Korea maintained its base rate at 2.75%, aligning with the majority consensus, as heightened uncertainty over US tariff policy, domestic stimulus measures, and exchange rate volatility warranted a pause in easing, despite deteriorating growth prospects.
Domestic GDP is now expected to undershoot the 1.5% forecast from February due to weak Q1 performance, persistent trade frictions, and subdued domestic demand, while inflation remains stable at around 2%.
Further rate cuts remain likely, but the MPC will assess external volatility and policy clarity before resuming easing, with the May outlook expected to be a key inflexion point.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

CX Daily: China’s First-Quarter GDP Jumps 5.4% Ahead of Tariff Storm

GDP /: China’s first-quarter GDP jumps 5.4% ahead of tariff storm
Hong Kong /: Trade war clouds Hong Kong’s future as China’s global gateway
Banks /In Depth: Chinese banks chase opportunities overseas amid struggles at home

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Apr 17

Daily Brief Macro: UK: Price War Dents Spring Inflation and more

In today’s briefing:

UK: Price War Dents Spring Inflation
Atkins to Accelerate the Delisting of Chinese Stocks From the US Stock Exchanges in 2025/2026?
EA Disinflation Confirmed For ECB Doves
CX Daily: Fatal Crash Sours Xiaomi’s EV Success
Private Firms Step In As Indonesia Grapples With EUDR Compliance
Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 17 April 2025

UK: Price War Dents Spring Inflation

A supermarket price war hit food prices, slowing UK CPI inflation below the headline consensus again. Upside news in clothing was offset by downside in game prices.
Repeating 2008’s experience would drive a game price rebound, but the food effect is more likely to persist. The median inflationary impulse should also rebound soon.
Unit wage costs remain inconsistent with the target, while energy and water utility bills will drive a massive jump in April. We still forecast a final 25bp BoE rate cut in May.

Atkins to Accelerate the Delisting of Chinese Stocks From the US Stock Exchanges in 2025/2026?

By Douglas Kim

Paul Atkins, the new head of U.S. SEC could accelerate the delisting of Chinese stocks from the U.S. stock exchanges.
There are about 280 companies from mainland China that are listed in the U.S. with a combined market cap of about $880 billion.
There could be two major reasons to accelerate this delisting (require Chinese companies to abide by US GAAP accounting and fully delist Chinese companies with ties to Chinese military).

EA Disinflation Confirmed For ECB Doves

An unrevised final HICP print confirmed the disinflationary space driving the ECB to cut again in April, despite growing desire to slow easing before it becomes stimulative.
The median inflation impulse remains at, or slightly below, the target. However, other statistical measures are stickier and labour costs are fundamentally growing too fast.
EURUSD appreciation compounds disinflationary energy price pressures to trigger another likely slowing in April that might dovishly surprise the consensus again.

CX Daily: Fatal Crash Sours Xiaomi’s EV Success

Xiaomi /In Depth: Fatal crash sours Xiaomi’s EV success
Wearables /: Chinese wearable tech firms explore overseas production as U.S. tariffs soar
Tariff bullying: Senior Communist Party official Xia Baolong got fired up during a national security speech in Hong Kong on Tuesday, condemning the U.S.’ 145% tariff on imports from the free port city as “outrageous bullying and utterly shameless.

Private Firms Step In As Indonesia Grapples With EUDR Compliance

By Vinod Nedumudy

Only 10,000 ha of 3.2 million ha smallholder plantations get STDB
KoltiSkills trains around 6,000 smallholders in Indonesia
Olam Agri rolls out SNR in Lampang to empower smallholders

Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 17 April 2025

By Dr. Jim Walker

Japan faces GDP downgrades and a strong yen, but labour shortages support domestic resilience.
U.S. reindustrialization plans clash with tight labour markets and inflation risks.
Global uncertainty persists amid U.S. tariffs, limited rate cuts, and diverging economic trajectories in Asia.

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Apr 16

Daily Brief Macro: UK: Green Shoots For Unemployment Wilt and more

In today’s briefing:

UK: Green Shoots For Unemployment Wilt
US Bear Market: BETWEEN DENIAL AND ANGER THERE IS “HOPE”
Steno Signals #193 – The USD Reset Is Underway
Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 14 April
Singapore Enters Escalating Trade War on Soft Footing
Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 14 April
Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 14 April
India’s FDI Soars in ’25: In Up, Out Down!
Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 14 April
Stay Overweight Taiwan

UK: Green Shoots For Unemployment Wilt

Signs that statistical effects might lower the unemployment rate in the Spring have weakened, with stability at 4.4% now more likely amid stagnant underlying trends.
Levels remain healthy and redundancies are low despite falling vacancies, suggesting resilience survives rather than thrives. Rapid wage growth is more problematic.
Dovish hopes that excesses will break soon, aided by destructive US trade policy, keep the BoE on track to cut in May. Sterling strength also adds disinflationary space.

US Bear Market: BETWEEN DENIAL AND ANGER THERE IS “HOPE”

By David Mudd

The S&P bounced off its support level of 4800 and is now consolidating on investor hopes that the worst is over as volatility declines.
As the economic numbers weaken and inflation accelerates from tariffs we expect the market to take its next leg down and enter a secular bear market.
As the economic numbers weaken and inflation accelerates from tariffs we expect the market to take its next leg down and enter a secular bear market.

Steno Signals #193 – The USD Reset Is Underway

By Andreas Steno

Morning from Copenhagen!It’s been a remarkable week—and weekend—in policy space.
On Friday, the White House released a list of exemptions from the reciprocal tariffs (including, for example, semiconductors).
Then, on Sunday, Trump “tweeted” that no exemptions were made, leaving Howard Lutnick once again to explain what was actually going on.

Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 14 April

Asia’s base oils prices surge relative to feedstock and gasoil prices.
Surge in margins include light-grade base oils, for which supply is more readily available.
Increasingly high margins and closed arbitrage to other markets by contrast points to tight supply.

Singapore Enters Escalating Trade War on Soft Footing

By Manu Bhaskaran

1Q25 advanced estimates warn that the Singapore economy is entering the current unprecedented period of trade turmoil already burdened by broad signs of slowdown.
With inflationary pressures also moderating, the Monetary Authority of Singapore has aptly continued its monetary easing stance in its recent April review.
Still, with Singapore likely to be much more severely hit by the breakdown of the global rules-based order than others, a forceful fiscal response is needed to prevent a recession.

Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 14 April

Global base oils prices rise sharply vs feedstock/gasoil prices.
Price premiums climb at time of year when they typically rise strongly in response to firmer supply-demand fundamentals.
Rise in price premiums in April 2025 coincides with slump in crude oil prices.

Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 14 April

US base oils demand could face more pressure from concern about growing disconnect between base oils prices and crude oil and feedstock prices.
Widening base oil premium to feedstock and diesel prices points to sudden improvement in demand and tightening supply.
Timing of surge in base oils premium suggests it is linked more to slump in crude oil prices than to marked change in supply-demand fundamentals.

India’s FDI Soars in ’25: In Up, Out Down!

By Viral Kishorchandra Shah

Net FDI inflows hit USD 3.7B in Jan ’25, up from USD 2.3B, matching Aug ’24 after months of decline.
FDI outflows dropped to USD 2.1B, lowest since Jun ’22, driving the rebound despite lower gross inflows.
Apr-Jan ’24-25 net FDI fell 7.4% to USD 21.6B; tech and manufacturing led, per RBI and UNCTAD reports.

Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 14 April

US base oils export price discount to Asia base oils prices stays wide so far this year.
Wide price discount facilitates shipment of surplus supplies to markets like India.
US base oils and lube exports to India surge in Feb 2025, reflecting that dynamic.

Stay Overweight Taiwan

By Sharmila Whelan

Taiwan stands out, despite facing in 90 days a 34% reciprocal tariff rate imposed by Trump.
Corporate profits, investment and credit are all on the upswing, while the cost of capital remains extremely indicating that the business cycle has further to run.
The economy is firing on all cylinders: domestic demand is rising strongly and so are exports.

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Apr 15

Daily Brief Macro: US Tariffs: Of Words And Bonds and more

In today’s briefing:

US Tariffs: Of Words And Bonds
VRG Leads Rubber Growth Across Laos Plantation Heartlands
Trump’s End Game
Hong Kong Market Strategy – Trade and Portfolio Ideas Amidst the Volatility
The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – SPINDO Is Piping Hot, DigiPlus, and Malaysian Banks
How Commodities React To Trumps New Global Trade Plans
[US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2025/15] WTI Pauses Slide on Tariff Delay
US Financial Markets: Unwinding of Leverage Imparts Pain and Unusual Price Action
[US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2025/15] Henry Hub Dropped Amid Trade Turmoil and Warmer Forecasts
Real Asset Chartbook Week #3: Continued Volatility

US Tariffs: Of Words And Bonds

By Alastair Newton

Donald Trump’s recent policy reversal may provide an opportunity for the completion of bilateral trade agreements with certain US partners.
However, neither China nor the EU is expected to reach an agreement soon, particularly in the current context.
This is largely due to the evident vulnerability of America to the bond market.

VRG Leads Rubber Growth Across Laos Plantation Heartlands

By Vinod Nedumudy

VRG’s Lao division scripts US$14.85 million in profit in 2024
VRG’s rubber output in Laos touches 34,592 tons in 2024
Prime Minister asks VRG to start tire units in Laos

Trump’s End Game

By Sharmila Whelan

Trading Post’s top buy calls are the Philippines, India, Japan, Malaysia, Taiwan and Europe.
Trump’s ultimate objectives are to secure fairer trading terms and stimulate inward investment—and the strategy appears to be gaining traction.
Countries facing the highest reciprocal tariff rates, with large surpluses vis-à-vis the US and high gross exports to GDP ratios will buckle first.

Hong Kong Market Strategy – Trade and Portfolio Ideas Amidst the Volatility

By Rikki Malik

Government stabilisation measures kick in as tariff war starts to bite
Can the HK and China markets continue their bull run as markets dislocate?
Is it time to selectively get back into the Chinese tech sector?

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – SPINDO Is Piping Hot, DigiPlus, and Malaysian Banks

By Angus Mackintosh

The past week saw insights on Steel Pipe Industry of Indonesia (ISSP IJ), DigiPlus Interactive (PLUS PM), and ISDN Holdings (ISDN SP).
There were also economic insights on Thailand and the Philippines from Manu Bhaskaran and sector insights on Malaysian Banks from Victor Galliano, with RHB Bank as the top pick.
The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable macro and equity bottom insights from across Southeast Asia.

How Commodities React To Trumps New Global Trade Plans

By The Commodity Report

President Trump triggered turmoil in the stock and bond markets, sent shockwaves through the global economy, and claimed the U.S. would eliminate the national debt using trillions supposedly generated from his tariffs.
Just earlier this week, he declared he wouldn’t make a zero-tariff deal with the EU — and now, without any real change in circumstances, he’s suddenly starting to back down.
Trump dropped his country-specific tariffs down to a universal 10% rate for all trade partners except China on Wednesday – for a limited time period of 90 days – presumably to have more time to make deals with each country.

[US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2025/15] WTI Pauses Slide on Tariff Delay

WTI futures fell 0.8% for the week ending 11/Apr, driven primarily by uncertainty around tariffs and escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and China.
The U.S. rig count fell by seven to 583. The oil rig count dropped by nine to 480, while gas rigs grew by one to 97.
WTI OI PCR fell to 0.80 on 11/Apr compared to 0.88 on 04/Apr. Call OI increased by 19.3% WoW, while put OI grew by 9.1%.

US Financial Markets: Unwinding of Leverage Imparts Pain and Unusual Price Action

By Said Desaque

Elevated uncertainty about the consequences of US trade policy has imparted significant volatility on financial markets. The unwinding of leveraged positions in US equities has accentuated price declines.
There has been turbulence for US Treasuries, but there has no change in the economic fundamentals that underpin their valuation. Unwinding of basis points trades may partially explain price movements.
Hedge funds may also be unwinding big bets based on pending financial deregulation that would raise banks’ capacity to hold Treasuries. There is no evidence of systemic funding stress.

[US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2025/15] Henry Hub Dropped Amid Trade Turmoil and Warmer Forecasts

For the week ending 11/Apr, U.S. natural gas prices fell by 8.1% on the back of escalating U.S.-China trade tensions and warmer weather forecasts.
U.S. natural gas futures sharply fell on 08/April (Tue) and touched an eight-week low despite robust LNG exports.
Henry Hub OI PCR fell to 0.95 on 11/Apr compared to 0.97 on 04/Apr. Call OI increased by 6.3% WoW, while put OI grew by 3.8%.

Real Asset Chartbook Week #3: Continued Volatility

By Massif Capital Research

Lots of interesting changes over the week, especially in the 2nd half. We have had a bounce, but opportunities remain.
Key questions that need to be considered are how much of the economic damage from a rocky tariff rollout is already priced in, how should the potential impact of tariffs on earnings be assessed, and what is your plan for deploying capital in the context of a falling market.
Pair this week’s Real Asset Chartbook with reading Jeremy Grantham’s “Reinvesting When Terrified” and plan out your strategy for the redeployment of capital.

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Apr 14

Daily Brief Macro: A Game Theory Analysis of the Trade War and more

In today’s briefing:

A Game Theory Analysis of the Trade War
Estimating Downside Risk
Copper Tracker 14th April 2025: Green Shoots Emerging After the Trump Tariff Fiasco
Iron Ore Tracker (14-Apr-2025): Iron Within The Band, Set To Bounce On China Stimulus Talks

A Game Theory Analysis of the Trade War

By Cam Hui

No country in the world will be spared damage in a trade war.
Both the U.S. and China have outlined positions that are little more than posturing.
However, a game theory analysis of the relative positions indicates that the U.S. holds a weaker hand than China.

Estimating Downside Risk

By Cam Hui

The S&P 500 is deeply oversold by historical standards, but it remains an open question of whether stock prices will decline further after a short-term bounce.
Our estimate of S&P 500 downside is 3900–4500 without a recession, with strong technical support at 4800. Downside risk with a recession is 3300-3800.
Current readings indicate elevated recession risk based on consensus policy expectations, which can change at any time.

Copper Tracker 14th April 2025: Green Shoots Emerging After the Trump Tariff Fiasco

By Sameer Taneja

The introduction of Trump Tariffs has adversely impacted the commodities market’s promising start to the year, except for gold, which has exceeded 3,200 USD/oz.
Following a peak of 10,000 USD/ton on March 25, copper prices fell 14% to 8,600 USD/ton before rebounding in the past two trading sessions to 9,150 USD/ton.
The dollar’s depreciation, Trump’s flexibility on tariffs, and anticipated acceleration in Chinese stimulus have created a more favorable market environment for copper.

Iron Ore Tracker (14-Apr-2025): Iron Within The Band, Set To Bounce On China Stimulus Talks

By Sameer Taneja

Iron ore prices dropped by 5.5% last week, as the tariff war spooked the market and global recession fears gripped the market.
With the temporary relaxation of the tariffs and a meeting of key Chinese leaders to front-load the stimulus, the market seems slightly less pessimistic about iron ore prices.
With iron ore prices falling below USD 100 per ton, the higher end of the cost curve, we anticipate a slight rebound toward the USD 105-110 per ton range.

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Apr 13

Daily Brief Macro: Overview #22 – The Lunatics Have Taken over the Asylum and more

In today’s briefing:

Overview #22 – The Lunatics Have Taken over the Asylum

Overview #22 – The Lunatics Have Taken over the Asylum

By Rikki Malik

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes or outlook
The new Trump Administration’s “plan” for China is becoming clearer
What’s next for markets after the tumultuous events of the last week

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Apr 12

Daily Brief Macro: UK: GDP Seasonal Surge Before Slowing and more

In today’s briefing:

UK: GDP Seasonal Surge Before Slowing
Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 11 April 2025
HEW: Sipping ECB Dove-Juice
Real Asset Chartbook Week #2: That Was Interesting
The Art of the Trade War: FIRST ROUND GOES TO THE MARKETS!
CX Daily: Chinese Firms Set to Seek Alternative Sources for Key U.S. Imports

UK: GDP Seasonal Surge Before Slowing

Fundamental causes should not be assigned to UK GDP surging far beyond consensus expectations again in February, despite the notability of Q1 growth tracking 0.7% q-o-q.
Residual seasonality has dominated the post-pandemic growth profile, and the recent resilience merely matches it. Stagnation for the rest of the year is the consequence.
Disruptive and volatile US trade policy will also depress the underlying economic trend beneath the spurious seasonals. We now bake both more fully into our modal forecasts.

Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 11 April 2025

By Dr. Jim Walker

India and the Philippines cut interest rates, supporting domestic growth amid easing inflation.
US inflation remains sticky, limiting chances of Fed rate cuts despite political pressure.
US-China tensions escalate with new tariffs, stoking geopolitical risks and Taiwan conflict concerns.

HEW: Sipping ECB Dove-Juice

Market disruptions occurred over the past week due to volatility in reciprocal and China tariffs, affecting the significance of data releases such as low US inflation and surging UK GDP.
Next week, UK unemployment and inflation data may lean hawkishly due to resilient underlying trends and the delayed impact of Spring stock in clothing store price samples.
The European Central Bank (ECB) is also being pushed towards making another cut on Thursday due to market movements.

Real Asset Chartbook Week #2: That Was Interesting

By Massif Capital Research

The second week of the Real Asset Chartbook and it has been an eventful one.
Our custom equity indices tracking different parts of the liquid real asset universe are showing dramatic moves, yet it does not look like we have found a bottom yet.
Probably more short-term pain to come, but everything in the real asset space was cheap before and has just gotten cheaper.

The Art of the Trade War: FIRST ROUND GOES TO THE MARKETS!

By David Mudd

The US treasury and dollar markets have proven to be key participants in US trade negotiations.
In a battle of wills, Trump and Xi delay direct negotiations between the world’s two largest economies. Time is on China’s side as consumer confidence plummets in US.
Regardless of the results of the trade negotiations, the co-dependent support dynamic for the US equity, dollar, and treasury markets is broken.

CX Daily: Chinese Firms Set to Seek Alternative Sources for Key U.S. Imports

Tariffs / Chinese firms set to seek alternative sources for key U.S. imports
Ad /In Depth: China’s ad market cools as businesses lose patience
Interview /Interview: Countries should unite to fight Trump’s tariffs

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Apr 11

Daily Brief Macro: The Drill – The Commodity Onslaught (Still) and more

In today’s briefing:

The Drill – The Commodity Onslaught (Still)
Tariff Part II: Canada-Mexico Web Ensnares US; USTMA Projects Higher Volume
US Travel Crashes Inflation In Mar-25
From Rs.87 to Rs.85: Rupee’s Rebound Faces Tariff Test
India Twin Deficit Watch: Fiscal Deficit to Shrink to 4% of GDP in FY26, CAD to 0.2%
[ETP 2025/15] Tariff Pause Halts Slide in WTI and Henry Hub but U.S.-China Tensions Weigh on Prices
CX Daily: Cargo Ships Are Racing Across Pacific as U.S.-China Tariff Deadline Looms

The Drill – The Commodity Onslaught (Still)

By Andreas Steno

Greetings from Copenhagen.
We were just about to wrap up this week’s edition of The Drill when the news hit: tariffs are officially on pause for all trade partners except China.
So that initial line—“risk sentiment was improving a tad this afternoon as markets likely see the worst headlines and data behind us”—can now be upgraded to markets partying like there’s no tomorrow.

Tariff Part II: Canada-Mexico Web Ensnares US; USTMA Projects Higher Volume

By Vinod Nedumudy

Components crossing US–Mexico–Canada corridor face disruption
Reshoring production to US would involve multi-year lead times
USTMA expects U.S. tire shipments of 340.4 million units in 2025

US Travel Crashes Inflation In Mar-25

Downside news from February’s US CPI print extended into a March crash with a 0.2pp undershoot at -0.05% m-o-m, not just because of a 2.4% m-o-m fall in energy prices.
Hotels joined another sharp fall in airfares to drive the core inflation weakness. The late Easter appears responsible, similar to 2023, ahead of an April resurgence.
Market participants are unusually unfazed by data that does not reveal the impact of substantial policy changes. Resilience should damp dovish hopes for cuts returning.

From Rs.87 to Rs.85: Rupee’s Rebound Faces Tariff Test

By Viral Kishorchandra Shah

INR rose from Rs.87.6 in Feb to Rs.85 in Apr 2025, but tariffs may halt this in June.
Trade deficit narrowed to $56.5B in Mar, yet expected to hit $60 to 65B in June, pressuring INR.
FPI inflows turned positive in Mar but may fade in June due to rate cuts and global uncertainty.

India Twin Deficit Watch: Fiscal Deficit to Shrink to 4% of GDP in FY26, CAD to 0.2%

By Prasenjit K. Basu

India’s exports (merchandise+invisible) topped US$1trn in 2024, up over 36-fold in 33 years. This has been crucial to bolstering the economy, and is likely to strengthen as Chinese exports recede.
CAD likely moderated to 0.7% of GDP in FY25, and will shrink further in FY26, helped by lower oil prices and broad-based export recovery, as oil-refinery shutdowns end.
Fiscal deficit was 4.4% of GDP in the 12months to Feb’25 (below official estimate of 4.8%). With tax revenue strong, the FY26 fiscal deficit should shrink to 4% of GDP.

[ETP 2025/15] Tariff Pause Halts Slide in WTI and Henry Hub but U.S.-China Tensions Weigh on Prices

For the week ending 04/Apr, U.S. crude inventories rose by 2.6m barrels (vs. expectations of 2.2m rise), and gasoline stockpiles fell less than expected.
US natural gas inventories rose by 57 Bcf for the week ending 04/Apr, missing analyst expectations of a 60 Bcf build. Inventories are 2.1% below the 5-year seasonal average.
Trump cancelled BP and Shell’s licenses for gas projects in Venezuela. UBS lowered its price target for Chevron, Exxon, Occidental, Halliburton, and Schlumberger.

CX Daily: Cargo Ships Are Racing Across Pacific as U.S.-China Tariff Deadline Looms

Tariffs /: Cargo ships are racing across Pacific as U.S.-China tariff deadline looms
Retaliation /: Trade war escalates as China raises tariffs on U.S. goods to 84%
Quant /In Depth: How China’s quant funds became AI incubators

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Apr 10

Daily Brief Macro: Smart Coffee: 7 April 2025 and more

In today’s briefing:

Smart Coffee: 7 April 2025
EUDR May Be Subject To Revision
‘China Plus’ Is Collateral Damage of ‘America First’
US Bear Market: THIS TIME IS DIFFERENT!
CX Daily: China’s Export Machine Stalls Under Trump’s New Trade Blitz
India: RBI Turns Accommodative; Expect Another 100bp of Rate Cuts by Dec’25

Smart Coffee: 7 April 2025

By Jay Cameron

An interesting day for the market after the announcement of tariffs previous day.
When analyzing this market move, it may help to look at the countries affected by tariffs in terms of the amount of tariffs (fig. 1, fig 2.). vs the movement on the main indices in that country.
Many impacted indices are 5% to 10% in the red in April as a result, including the EU indices.

EUDR May Be Subject To Revision

By Farah Miller

Importers labeling rubber used as synthetic or compounded to avoid due diligence
Automated checks may miss incorrect documentation
Ongoing review for the list of products which need documentation before entering EU

‘China Plus’ Is Collateral Damage of ‘America First’

By Priyanka Kishore

The swift escalation in the US-China trade war would ordinarily have been a trigger for faster supply chain diversification.
But this is unlikely amid skyrocketing uncertainty. Investments will likely slow to a crawl over 2025-26, as firms delay decisions on expansions and relocation of production to new destinations.
Firms cannot move manufacturing to the US at the rapid pace at which tariffs are being implemented, without running into production bottlenecks and higher costs.

US Bear Market: THIS TIME IS DIFFERENT!

By David Mudd

The US dollar and US treasuries are no longer a safe haven in the wake of the US market sell off.
Tariffs undercut primary reasons for foreigners to buy and hold US dollar assets, including recycling of export earnings by foreign countries. Lower consumption and higher inflation are additional headwinds.
Foreign holdings of US stocks and debt will decline as the US isolates itself from the global trading system.

CX Daily: China’s Export Machine Stalls Under Trump’s New Trade Blitz