Macro

In today’s briefing:

UK: Spillover effects from US tariffs
Trump, Tariffs, and Trade Wars
Europe Vs NATO & Trump – U/W Bonds
Bond Market Monitor: TRUMPolined Recession
CX Daily: Trump Tariffs Put Global Trade System in Crisis as Countries Retaliate
Paetongtarn’s Parliamentary Win of Little Help to Struggling Economy
Macro Bite – India : Why RBI Should Cut Fast and Deep
Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 7 April
Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 7 April
Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 7 April

UK: Spillover effects from US tariffs

The UK output destroyed by reciprocal US tariffs is only partly due to the direct impact of the new 10% rate (worth ~0.2% of GDP) and generally weaker US prospects (0.1%).
Global GDP growth is depressed by this policy, indirectly destroying demand for UK exports from elsewhere (0.2%), especially if countries harm themselves by retaliating.
An overall 0.6% GDP hit has two-sided risks and a skew lowered by likely negotiations. Fears of items dumping into the UK market are overblown excuses for protectionism.

Trump, Tariffs, and Trade Wars

By Manu Bhaskaran

President Trump’s radical tariff measures will usher in a new era of greater volatility, slower growth, financial stresses and geopolitical downsides.
The coming weeks will be marked by uncertainty as the domestic political pushback in the US interacts unpredictably with retaliation by trading partners and the economic fallout.
In Asia, monetary easing can mitigate only part of the impact. Fiscal policy is needed but is constrained in most of the region, given pre-existing debt and deficits.

Europe Vs NATO & Trump – U/W Bonds

Bond holders should be concerned about Europe’s fiscal position, which is less rosy than official numbers suggest, and the looming surge in defence spending. Stay underweight European government bonds.
Europe’s urgently needs to strengthen its defences. There is some catching up to do – Europe still spends half as much as the US’s and the gap has widened.
Weaning itself off US arms won’t be easy or quick. Overweight US defence stocks.

Bond Market Monitor: TRUMPolined Recession

By Warut Promboon

President Trump’s announcement of tariffs stunned the market and warrants our pessimism on the US economy.
One of the worst policy blunders in our lifetime should help put the US into a recession this year
We recommend a long position in short-rated and variable rate bonds as well as precious metals such as gold.

CX Daily: Trump Tariffs Put Global Trade System in Crisis as Countries Retaliate

By Caixin Global

Tariffs / Cover Story: Trump tariffs put global trade system in crisis as countries retaliate and stock markets plummet
Legal battle /In Depth: How one acre in Shanghai sparked a 20-year legal battle
Stocks /: China markets sink as trade war intensifies

Paetongtarn’s Parliamentary Win of Little Help to Struggling Economy

By Manu Bhaskaran

The Thai prime minister comfortably survived a vote of no confidence, suggesting that the marriage of convenience holding her coalition government together is still viable for now
The parties in the coalition, however, are still engaged in power struggles, causing political and policy instability as well as impede coherent policy for the rest of the term
Distracted as it thus is, the government is not well-placed to address the challenges emanating from a more hostile trade environment and weakening domestic fundamentals

Macro Bite – India : Why RBI Should Cut Fast and Deep

By Priyanka Kishore

Downside growth risks dominate following the sweeping tariffs announced by the US, which is India’s largest export partner
Negative impact on labour-intensive exports will disproportionately hurt overall GDP growth
Growth will be best supported by large and frontloaded rate cuts

Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 7 April

US Group II base oils export price-discount to CFR India prices widens further through March 2025 even ahead of imposition of US tariffs and slump in crude oil prices.
US Group I brightstock export price flips to rare discount to CFR India price in recent weeks.
Ongoing weakness of US export prices points to weaker-than-usual domestic demand.

Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 7 April

Global base oils prices face growing upward pressure versus feedstock/diesel prices following slump in crude oil prices.
Firming base oils premium points to tightening supply and rising demand, incentivizing refiners to maintain or raise output.
Recent slump in crude oil prices reflects concern about slowdown in global economic activity and subsequent drop in demand.

Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 7 April

Asia’s base oils prices resume rise versus feedstock/gasoil prices.
Rising margins point to still-firm supply-demand fundamentals at start of Q2 2025.
That dynamic could change in coming weeks if economic growth slows, compounding typical seasonal dip in demand from end of second quarter.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Apr 08

Daily Brief Macro: US vs EU: Worse to Come and more

In today’s briefing:

US vs EU: Worse to Come
Tariff Doesn’t List Tire But Throws US Auto Industry Into A Tizzy
Commodities Crash after Trump’s Tariff Nightmare
Steno Signals #192 – A March 2020 style reset. Is this a liquidity event?
Crafting Investment Policy in an America First World
Europe: Buy On Dip
[IO Technicals Weekly 2025/14]: IO Volatility Set to Rise Amid Trade Tensions
[US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2025/14] Henry Hub Retreats Amid Tariff Shock and Warmer Weather Outlook
Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 7 April
The Drill: The Commodity Doom-Loop into Liberation Day

US vs EU: Worse to Come

By Alastair Newton

Policymakers and investors are not fully recognizing the threat posed by the US in response to ‘Liberation Day’.
The threat level has increased as ‘transactional Trump’ is replaced by a new president.
The new president aims to return the US to a perceived golden era in his mission to ‘make America great again’.

Tariff Doesn’t List Tire But Throws US Auto Industry Into A Tizzy

By Vinod Nedumudy

White House said on March 26 that the 25% tariff would be applied to imported passenger vehicles
Annexe II, which refers to tariff exclusions, mentions rubber
Stellantis halts its Canada, Mexico production

Commodities Crash after Trump’s Tariff Nightmare

By The Commodity Report

*YTD our absolute return strategy is up 7,5% Commodities Crash after Trump’s Tariff Nightmare In his mission to re-shore critical industries, raise revenue for the U.S. and narrow the deficit, Trump rolled out aggressive tariffs on virtually all countries (except Russia, Cuba and North Korea).
The new 10% tariff baseline is roughly triple the average US tariff rate before Trump reclaimed power in January and the calculation behind each tariff rates seems insane.
“We will charge them approximately half of what they are and have been charging us,” Trump said of the reciprocal tariffs.

Steno Signals #192 – A March 2020 style reset. Is this a liquidity event?

By Andreas Steno

Happy Sunday from Copenhagen, if I am allowed to say that after a horrendous week in markets.
Markets are heading into a tense week as the U.S.-China trade tensions escalate and Europe appears poised to introduce digital tariffs — likely targeting the Magnificent 7 — in response to Trump’s proposed tariff agenda.
By late Friday, the U.S. dollar surged sharply, accompanied by early signs of capitulation in traditional safe-haven assets like gold and Treasuries.

Crafting Investment Policy in an America First World

If Trump succeeds in his America First policy, the new winners will be America’s suppliers of labour. The obvious loser under Trump’s win-lose worldview will be the suppliers of capital.
The investment environment in an America First world will be riskier. Expect more sovereign defaults and restructurings.
The benchmark portfolio under the new regime should be a basket of global assets.

Europe: Buy On Dip

Markets are correcting globally on the back of Trump’s Liberation Day tariff bombshell. This an opportunity to increase exposure.
Business cycle fundamentals, including the corporate profit upcycle, warrant a buy on European equities.
Value and quality stocks are recommended. Sector bias is towards consumer staples, tech hardware and defence before moving into consumer discretionary and industrials later in the year.

[IO Technicals Weekly 2025/14]: IO Volatility Set to Rise Amid Trade Tensions

By Pranay Yadav

SGX Iron Ore Futures fell $2.78/ton WoW, closing at $99.45/ton on April 4 after breaching key support levels and trading in a wider $5.95/ton range.
U.S.–China tariff escalation led to a MACD-confirmed downtrend and prices plunging below 100- and 200-day DMAs, signaling heightened bearish momentum.
Despite sharp price drops, implied volatility declined across all deltas reaching new lows for the year, with skew falling to +0.5%.

[US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2025/14] Henry Hub Retreats Amid Tariff Shock and Warmer Weather Outlook

For the week ending 04/Apr, U.S. natural gas prices fell by 5.6% on the back of Trump’s tariffs and warmer weather forecasts.
U.S. natural gas futures continued to decline on 07/April (Mon), hovering around a seven-week low and extending last week’s 5.6% loss.
Henry Hub OI PCR fell to 0.97 on 04/Apr from 0.98 on 28/Mar. Call OI increased by 5.3% WoW, while put OI grew by 5%.

Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 7 April

Asia’s base oils demand could fall in face of slumping crude oil prices and concern about slower-than-expected economic growth in the region.
Concern about weaker demand cuts fundamentals-related support that could cushion against impact of falling crude oil prices.
Concern about more muted demand and expected improvement in base oils supply in coming weeks would contrast with increasingly high base oils margins caused by lower crude oil prices.

The Drill: The Commodity Doom-Loop into Liberation Day

By Mikkel Rosenvold

President Trump very clearly lost his patience over the weekend and sharpened his rhetoric against Putin sharply (Iran too – more on that later).
Trump is now threatening third-party tariffs on countries buying Russian oil – namely China and India, of course.
To me, this is a sign that Putin is dragging out the negotiations, leveraging the fact that he is in no hurry to reach a peace agreement.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Apr 07

Daily Brief Macro: A Big Bear and more

In today’s briefing:

A Big Bear, or Just A Plain Vanilla Correction?
Investors Have that “Oh Sh#t Moment” – Part 2: Trading Opportunities.
US Embraces Modern Mercantilism Via Higher Tariffs to Boost Capital Accumulation
Fenix Resources (FEX AU): Highlights From The Ignite Investment Summit

A Big Bear, or Just A Plain Vanilla Correction?

The latest Trump tariff announcements have sparked a risk-off stampede.
Even though the macro and fundamental backdrop is deteriorating, sellers are becoming exhausted and a relief rally should materialize in the coming week.
Both the top-down outlook and technical structure of the stock market argue for a bear market, and any rally should be interpreted as a countertrend move.

Investors Have that “Oh Sh#t Moment” – Part 2: Trading Opportunities.

By Rikki Malik

Act 1 of the US bear market is likely complete, with diverging price signals from stocks, bonds and the dollar.
This will be a rebound bounce to sell into, as we are not going back to previous highs.
Looking at companies servicing high-income consumers is a good hunting ground for shorts.

US Embraces Modern Mercantilism Via Higher Tariffs to Boost Capital Accumulation

By Said Desaque

President Trump’s announcement of reciprocal tariffs has shocked equity markets, creating comparisons with President Nixon’s shock decision in 1971 to suspend the dollar’s convertibility into gold.
Markets initially betted that Europe would enjoy faster growth due to the arrival of tariffs and higher defence spending, but Europe still remains heavily reliant on net exports, particularly Germany.
The US will win a trade war versus Europe due to a large loss external demand, while the US has joined China in pursuing modern mercantilism to enhance sovereign power.

Fenix Resources (FEX AU): Highlights From The Ignite Investment Summit

By Sameer Taneja

Executive Chairman John Welborn presented the investment case for Fenix Resources (FEX AU) at the Ignite Investment Summit in Hong Kong on March 26th/27th.
The company’s imminent production of 4 million tons of iron ore (~$100 USD/ton), is projected to generate AUD 200 million in operating cash flow, matching its current market capitalization.
The company briefly touched on its M&A opportunity with Coziron Resources (CZR AU), which is expected to add 40 million tons of reserves and further increase production.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Apr 05

Daily Brief Macro: HEW: Yikes and more

In today’s briefing:

HEW: Yikes, At Tonto Tariff Hikes
Cambodia Reaps Impressive Rubber Export Returns In 2025 Start
[ETP 2025/14] WTI Plummets on Tariffs and OPEC Output Hike, Henry Hub Supported by Cooler Weather
From Liberation to Obliteration – THE POINT OF NO RETURN
Market Movers: Key Dates at a Glance (7 – 13 April)

HEW: Yikes, At Tonto Tariff Hikes

Severe global tariff increases have significantly impacted market sentiment, leading to lower equity prices and rate expectations. The market’s eagerness to discount ongoing US labour market resilience is considered excessive.
The new tariff rates are set to take effect in the coming week. Any further trade conflicts could be the main macro news.
US inflation, UK GDP, and the RBNZ are the conventional highlights, but these data may be disregarded as old news.

Cambodia Reaps Impressive Rubber Export Returns In 2025 Start

By Vinod Nedumudy

Jan-Feb 2025 returns from rubber exports up 24% year-on-year
Cambodia focusing on high-yielding CRRI 12 and CRRI 19 clones
ANRPC economist says strengthening processing sector key

[ETP 2025/14] WTI Plummets on Tariffs and OPEC Output Hike, Henry Hub Supported by Cooler Weather

For the week ending 28/Mar, U.S. crude inventories rose by 6.2m barrels (vs. expectations of 0.2k fall), and gasoline stockpiles fell less than expected.
US natural gas inventories rose by 29 Bcf for the week ending 28/Mar, exceeding analyst expectations of a 27 Bcf build. Inventories are 4.3% below the 5-year seasonal average.
Chevron sold its Texas gas assets for USD 525 million, while Exxon, Occidental, Schlumberger, and Aramco had their price targets cut.

From Liberation to Obliteration – THE POINT OF NO RETURN

By David Mudd

The S&P is declining toward its initial support level of 4800 – 5000. The dollar continues to decline defying its normal status as a safe haven.
The high co-dependence of the US economy and stock market ensures that an economic recession follows the market decline.
As tariff negotiations with individual countries begin, there will be continued headline risk and volatility. However, the bear market has reached the point of no return for the foreseeable future.

Market Movers: Key Dates at a Glance (7 – 13 April)

By Gaudenz Schneider

India: RBI rate decision on 9 April, 0.25% cut expected.
CPI Release: Several economies release CPI data next week, while central banks update their forecasts and scenarios with the recently released US tariffs.
Monthly Option Expiries: in India (BSE Stock options), Japan (Nikkei, Topix, Stocks), and South Korea (Kospi 200). The BSE moved the expiry one day forward due to a holiday.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Apr 04

Daily Brief Macro: Trump’s Reciprocal Tariffs Hit Asia Hard and more

In today’s briefing:

Trump’s Reciprocal Tariffs Hit Asia Hard
US Tariff Impact Estimates
TRUMP’S TARIFFICATION: The Market’s Willful Ignorance
Investors Have that “Oh Sh#t Moment” – Part 1: Hong Kong Strategy
US Reciprocal Tariff Scheme Is Likely to Boost US Manufacturing in Time; Positive
Asia: Look for Economies with Headroom for Policy Support
US: Policy Volatility Generates Inflation Setbacks, but Recession Fears Overblown
ECB Meeting Accounts – March 2025

Trump’s Reciprocal Tariffs Hit Asia Hard

By Priyanka Kishore

The scale and scope of Trump’s reciprocal tariffs has exceeded our expectations.
The growth outlook has unambiguously worsened across the board and will dominate inflation in Asia this year.
We expect Asian policy rates to be reduced by an average of 100 basis points in 2025.

US Tariff Impact Estimates

New US tariffs ignored any notion of reciprocity, reaching shockingly substantial sizes. However, the UK was relatively fortunate in landing on the 10% minimum rate.
Repeating 2024’s imports would raise $577bn in tariff revenue, which is worth ~3% of consumption. 70% pass-through to prices would add 2% to the level over 1-2 years.
Negotiations need to conclude rapidly to avoid these front-loaded price rises. The EU’s likely retaliations would magnify its pain, but the US is the biggest stagflationary loser.

TRUMP’S TARIFFICATION: The Market’s Willful Ignorance

By David Mudd

Liberation Day marks the beginning of the Tariffication of the global trading system. The complex web of supply chains will be forced to detangle itself to find cost efficiencies.
US companies will try to unpack the many complexities of re-sourcing products to mitigate the inflationary effects of tariffs. Domestic substitution is not a possibility in the near-term.
US consumers will begin to see inflationary impacts of Tariffication in the coming weeks. China announced retaliatory measures that would open the door for other countries to do the same.

Investors Have that “Oh Sh#t Moment” – Part 1: Hong Kong Strategy

By Rikki Malik

That “Oh sh#t moment” has just struck many investors in US markets
Within Hong Kong , Tech most at risk as investors take profit
Our alternative sector selection has performed both absolutely and in relative terms

US Reciprocal Tariff Scheme Is Likely to Boost US Manufacturing in Time; Positive

By Prasenjit K. Basu

All imports into the US will face a minimum 10% tariff (with a few product exceptions). Countries face differential tariffs depending on their own effective protection against US exports.
China exports to US (54% tariff) suffer a near-crippling blow, with Vietnam (46%), Bangladesh (37%), Indonesia & Taiwan (32%) hammered too. India, Korea, Japan, UK to benefit from trade diversion.
There’ll be substantial re-shoring of US manufacturing over 2-10 years, boosting the US economy. Inflation will be a near-term problem, but most countries are likely to mutually negotiate tariffs down.

Asia: Look for Economies with Headroom for Policy Support

By Manishi Raychaudhuri

As the trade war threatens to upend Asian economies’ export driven growth, most will have to provide monetary and fiscal stimuli to boost domestic consumption and investments.
Studying their real policy rates, inflation trajectories, public debt to GDP and Government’s borrowing cost, we assess which economies have adequate headroom to provide monetary and fiscal stimuli.
China, Korea and Thailand have adequate space to provide both monetary and fiscal stimulus. India can loosen monetary policy but not fiscal policy. Indonesia and Philippines are in India’s camp.

US: Policy Volatility Generates Inflation Setbacks, but Recession Fears Overblown

By Prasenjit K. Basu

Policy volatility/uncertainty has generated negative surprises in inflation, especially with core PCE rising 0.3%MoM in Jan’25 and 0.4%MoM in Feb’25, causing the YoY increase of 2.8% in Feb’25.
M2 growth was only 4.4%YoY in Feb’25, certainly not an inflationary factor. The ‘reciprocal tariffs’ (an effective new tariff of 20% across the board) will add 0.4pp to near-term inflation.
10yr-2yr yield curve remains upward sloping (+0.29pp); tariffs are just 1/4th those of Smoot-Hawley, and unlike them will likely result in mutual tariff reductions. The selloff is a buying opportunity.

ECB Meeting Accounts – March 2025

By Heteronomics AI

In the accounts for its March meeting, the ECB cited a broadly intact disinflation path and moderating wage pressures, but emphasised that rising trade and fiscal uncertainties diminish the reliability of the baseline outlook.
While most inflation indicators point to a sustained return to target, sticky services inflation and tight labour markets present upside risks, necessitating a cautious approach to future rate cuts.
With credit conditions easing and policy rates approaching estimated neutral levels, the ECB acknowledged that monetary policy is becoming less restrictive and refrained from signalling further easing.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Apr 03

Daily Brief Macro: Tariff Transition Smoothing and more

In today’s briefing:

Tariff Transition Smoothing
Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 31 March
FSS to Allow Foreigners to Invest in Korean Stocks Through Overseas Local Securities Firms
Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 31 March
Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 31 March
Americas/EMEA base oils supply outlook: Week of 31 March
Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 3 April 2025

Tariff Transition Smoothing

President Trump’s tariffs embed structural cost pressures, compounding supply chain changes and creating a stagflationary shock central banks cannot offset.
Potential retaliation risks raising inflation expectations, constraining the extent to which monetary policy can smooth transitional pains through temporary easing.
We still believe any dovish policy imperative is likely to be short, shallow, and reversed, with central banks forced to remain flexible and focused on shorter horizons again.

Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 31 March

US base oils export price-discount to US domestic prices stays narrower in Q1 2025 vs year-earlier.
Narrower export price-discount points to more manageable supply surplus at end-2024 and early this year, when domestic demand faced seasonal slowdown.
More manageable supply surplus follows firm export volumes through H2 2024 and early this year.

FSS to Allow Foreigners to Invest in Korean Stocks Through Overseas Local Securities Firms

By Douglas Kim

FSS announced that it will relax the requirements for opening a foreign integrated account to allow foreigners to more easily invest in Korean stocks through overseas local securities firms.
On 11 March, Interactive Brokers announced that it invested 15 billion won in Next Securities. So far, IBKR has not formally announced that it will allow trading of Korean stocks.
We expect IBKR to allow trading of Korean stocks in 2025, mainly due to its investment in Next Securities and FSS’s announcement today on relaxation of opening foreign omnibus accounts.

Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 31 March

Global base oils prices slip relative to firmer feedstock/competing fuel prices.
Base oils margins in most markets remain at levels that point to balanced-to-tight supply-demand fundamentals, incentivizing refiners to maintain higher output.
FOB Asia base oils prices fall vs gasoil prices.

Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 31 March

US base oils demand typically rises around this time of year to meet seasonal pick-up in lube consumption.
US spot base oils prices mostly hold steady, even with round of plant maintenance work and higher crude oil prices that keep margins under pressure.
Steady prices, despite rangebound margins and lower supply, suggest demand is lower than usual and lower than expected for the time of year.

Americas/EMEA base oils supply outlook: Week of 31 March

US base oils prices mostly stay in narrow range vs VGO prices, contrast with surging premium to VGO this time a year ago.
Margins hold in narrow range this year even as extensive round of plant maintenance tightens supply.
Supply could face additional disruption from markets like Canada, depending on impact and reaction to imposition of any US tariffs.

Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 3 April 2025

By Dr. Jim Walker

Global manufacturing slowdown: PMIs for major economies, including the U.S., U.K., and much of Asia, indicate contraction, with India standing out as a bright spot.
Economic uncertainty: Rising U.S. inflation challenges interest rate cut expectations, while South Korea’s trade data suggests stagnant global trade.
Regional developments: Hong Kong retail sales saw a year-on-year decline but slight month-on-month improvement; upcoming reports will provide deeper insights from key Asian economies.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Apr 02

Daily Brief Macro: EA Disinflates March’s Excess and more

In today’s briefing:

EA Disinflates March’s Excess
Helixtap China Report: Short-term Downward Bias In China Demand Outlook Amid Tariff Tensions
Asian Equities: India – Brace for Another Leg Down in the Near Term
[US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2025/13] Henry Hub Rebounds on Declining Output and Rising LNG Exports
[US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2025/13] WTI Climbed on Tariffs and Inventory Draws
RBI Rate Decision: Impact on Nifty 50 and NSE Banks, Insights and Strategies
Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 31 March
Challenges To The Dollar – Make For A Sell
-50% Orange Juice Price Implosion
Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 31 March

EA Disinflates March’s Excess

Euro area inflation slightly undershot consensus expectations in March, consistent with the correlation of surprises and energy prices. Yet it was 7bps above our forecast.
Services prices drove core inflation down to 2.4%, creating some dovish space. However, the headline outcome reversed last month’s upside to match February forecasts.
Resilience in the real economy still justifies more cautious easing close to neutral, so we expect graduated cuts to skip April for June, but the risk of an extra cut has risen.

Helixtap China Report: Short-term Downward Bias In China Demand Outlook Amid Tariff Tensions

By Arusha Das

Trade war impacts the trade flow
Arbitrage narrows on wintering
Fluctuating inventory level indicates at a whimsical buying pattern

Asian Equities: India – Brace for Another Leg Down in the Near Term

By Manishi Raychaudhuri

Indian equity’s recent spike overlooks near-term risks – possible cuts in consensus EPS estimates, risks arising from reciprocal tariffs and another bout of likely INR depreciation. Valuations are again expensive.
Our analysis of sector fundamentals foretells earnings estimate cuts in most sectors. Financials, and to a lesser extent, consumer discretionary could see upgrades. Expanding trade deficit could drive INR decline.
In the near term we are cautious about India. For country-dedicated investors we recommend increasing exposure to financials (particularly large cap private banks), select consumer discretionary, and defensives like utilities.

[US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2025/13] Henry Hub Rebounds on Declining Output and Rising LNG Exports

For the week ending 28/Mar, U.S. natural gas prices gained 4.6% due to rising LNG exports and a drop in daily natural gas output.
Henry Hub gained 1.7% on 27/Mar (Thu), driven by lower output, record LNG exports, and stronger demand forecasts, despite a build in U.S. natural gas storage.
Henry Hub OI PCR decreased to 0.98 on 28/Mar from 1.05 on 21/Mar. Call OI fell by 10.1% WoW, while put OI dropped by 16.1%.

[US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2025/13] WTI Climbed on Tariffs and Inventory Draws

WTI futures rose 1.6% for the week ending 28/Mar, driven by escalating trade tensions and declining U.S. crude oil inventories.
The U.S. rig count fell by one to 592. The oil rig count dropped by two to 484, and gas rigs rose by one to 103.
WTI OI PCR grew to 0.91 on 28/Mar from 0.90 on 21/Mar. Call OI increased by 7.0% WoW, while put OI grew by 7.3%.

RBI Rate Decision: Impact on Nifty 50 and NSE Banks, Insights and Strategies

By Gaudenz Schneider

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is set to announce a monetary policy decision on Wednesday 9 April 2025.
Market Expectations: The market anticipates a 25-basis-point rate cut, supported by a strong consensus. However, the RBI has surprised markets in 28% of its rate decisions over the past decade.
Index Sensitivity to Rate Decisions: Historical data shows the NSE Nifty Bank Index reacts more significantly to RBI announcements than the NIFTY 50 Index.

Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 31 March

Asia’s base oils prices extend dip versus feedstock/gasoil prices.
Margins hold firm for heavy grades, pointing to still-strong supply-demand fundamentals.
Firm margins partially cushion impact of weaker light-grade margins.

Challenges To The Dollar – Make For A Sell

We still like the US dollar this year but medium to long-term the currency is challenged.
The share of the dollar in international reserves is declining steadily.
The biggest threat is not renminbi internationalisation by mBridge and other multi central bank digital currency platforms.

-50% Orange Juice Price Implosion

By The Commodity Report

-50% Orange Juice Price Implosion After a crazy price surge – orange juice futures traded at the ICE have more than halved since the start of the year.
While reaching its temporary high of 539 USX in December, the forward contract is now trading at 247 USX.
The price is now back at levels it was trading at the beginning of 2024. Compared to 2020 futures pricing is still up 150%. (yeah you read that right)

Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 31 March

Asia’s base oils demand could hold firm over the coming weeks as buyers replenish low stocks and lube consumption holds steady.
Rising crude oil prices could provide additional support.
Seasonal slowdown in demand from end of second quarter typically starts to curb buying interest several weeks before then.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Apr 01

Daily Brief Macro: HEM: Fear of Fear Itself and more

In today’s briefing:

HEM: Fear of Fear Itself
The Month Ahead: Key Events in April
WTI’s Recovery Wavers While Henry Hub Regains Momentum
Rough Waters subsiding
[IO Technicals Weekly 2025/13]: Bullish Momentum Builds as IV Eases
Asian Alpha Hedge Fund (AAHF): INTRODUCTION
Trump-Russia-China: The Bigger Game

HEM: Fear of Fear Itself

US surveys indicate a fear of tariffs and DOGE, leading to a negative sentiment.
Despite these fears, resilient labour markets suggest that concerns may be exaggerated.
There is an expectation of reversing unnecessary easing in 2026 due to high underlying price and wage inflation.

The Month Ahead: Key Events in April

By Gaudenz Schneider

Central Bank Rate Decisions in Australia, India, and South Korea.
Tariffs: US reciprocal tariffs effective from 2 April; secondary tariffs are now a factor.
Holidays: Good Friday is an exchange holiday in Hong Kong, Australia, India, and the US. Several other national holidays throughout the region.

WTI’s Recovery Wavers While Henry Hub Regains Momentum

WTI rebounded in March due to geopolitical risks, but oversupply concerns and Trump’s unpredictable policies may limit further gains as OPEC increases output from April.
Henry Hub rallied in 2025, driven by strong LNG demand, supply constraints, and below-average inventories, positioning it for sustained support despite short-term volatility.
Henry Hub’s technicals indicate a potential bullish reversal, while WTI’s bullish momentum shows signs of weakening, suggesting divergent trends in the near term.

Rough Waters subsiding

By Mark Tinker

We often compare investing to sailing; investors can sit in safe harbour (cash) or they can venture out in most, if not all, weather.
Sometimes it requires a lot of tacking and trimming sails to seemingly achieve very little as the winds and tides fight each other, sometimes it is, as they say, plain sailing and the best thing to do is stick on the same course.
Obviously, and to extend the metaphor, fishing boats need to sail to where the most fish are and sometimes that means going to places where the weather is less predictable.

[IO Technicals Weekly 2025/13]: Bullish Momentum Builds as IV Eases

By Pranay Yadav

SGX IO Futures rose $2.25/ton over the week, closing at $102.25/ton, buoyed by seasonal steel demand and technical support above 9D and 21D DMAs.
Implied volatility in iron ore options fell sharply YoY (ATM IV -36%, 10-delta puts -41%), making long volatility positions more affordable.
Futures and options open interest rose 6.85% WoW, with Financial Institutions increasing net long positions, reinforcing bullish positioning.

Asian Alpha Hedge Fund (AAHF): INTRODUCTION

By David Mudd

The Asian Alpha Hedge Fund (AAHF) returned 31.66% in the first quarter of 2025. At 3/31/25 the portfolio had a gross position of 172% and a net position of +5.89%.
The fund’s outperformance was attributed to high alpha generation and country allocation/positioning. The portfolio gained from its long positions in Hong Kong and shorts in Japan.
At the end of March, we reduced our long positions in Hong tech names and covered short positions in Japanese steel companies.

Trump-Russia-China: The Bigger Game

Investors should be targeting US multinationals that had a presence in Russia pre-war.
Despite recent hiccups and Trump’s ire with Putin, expect a peace deal to be struck, for the US to lead Russia’s re-integrations into the world economy.
Breaking the Russia-China alliance is the bigger game at play here for Trump/.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Mar 31

Daily Brief Macro: EM Stock Rotation: China & HK Stocks Take Centre Stage and more

In today’s briefing:

EM Stock Rotation: China & HK Stocks Take Centre Stage
The Message From Gold’s Generational Breakout
Globalisation Enters More Nuanced Phase, Shaped By Sovereign Interests
Uncharted Investor Waters: From Soft to Hard Power

EM Stock Rotation: China & HK Stocks Take Centre Stage

By Steven Holden

China and HK stocks dominate the list of rising exposures among EM funds
Trip.com, CATL, and Xiaomi have reached new highs following sustained rotation, while Meituan and JD.com are rebounding after periods of consolidation
Aubrey and Putnam initiate stakes in Xiaomi, GIB open Trip.com exposure, and the Alger EM fund enters Meituan.

The Message From Gold’s Generational Breakout

Gold has staged a relative breakout against the S&P 500 and 60/40 portfolio is a signal of financial stress ahead and an era of hard asset outperformance against paper assets.
While we are long-term bulls on gold, it is highly extended and investors seeking to deploy cash into this investment theme should consider the energy sector as an alternative.
Our base-case scenario calls for a tactical recovery in stock prices into April. What happens next will depend on the evolution of economic data.

Globalisation Enters More Nuanced Phase, Shaped By Sovereign Interests

By Said Desaque

The trade infrastructure established during the globalisation period will not be entirely dismantled during the second Trump administration. Globalisation has entered a new phase, shaped by national security considerations.
Control of natural and strategic resources will feature prominently in the new environment, bringing inflationary implications that will impact bond markets in the absence of fiscal discipline.
Complex production processes in the strategically important semiconductor sector make changes in fabrication location expensive and disruptive. The new trade environment makes displacing market leaders more difficult, particularly in EVs.

Uncharted Investor Waters: From Soft to Hard Power