Singapore

• There are 51 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal
• Three new deals were discussed on Smartkarma: Beach Energy’s tilt for Warrego (WGO AU), Sumitomo’s offer for Sumitomo Precision (6355 JP), and Hainan Rubber’s offer for Halcyon (HACL SP).
• Key updates took place for: Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU) / Pendal Group (PDL AU), Nitro Software Ltd (NTO AU), and OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU).

• Halcyon Agri (HACL SP) has announced Sinochem, its largest shareholder with 65.2%, has entered into a SPA to sell 36% of shares out to China Hainan Rubber Industry (601118 CH).
• Upon completion of the SPA, Hainan Rubber will make an MGO, conditional on a 50% tendering acceptance.  Sinochem has provided an undertaking not to tender its remaining 29.2% stake. 
• The Offer Price? The SPA price is US$0.315/share and the Offer Price will be the SGD equivalent at the close of the SPA.

• After distributing over 450m of JD.com Inc. (9618 HK) shares to its shareholders late last year, Tencent (700 HK) took a short break from the downsizing of its public investments.
• Downsizing seems to have restarted with yesterday’s announcement of the distribution of more than 950m Meituan (3690 HK) shares to Tencent shareholders.
• Having already met Tencent’s soft self-sustainability criteria, Pinduoduo (PDD US) and Sea Ltd (SE US) could be lined up as Tencent’s next portfolio downsizing targets.

• Grab (GRAB US)  reported 3Q2022 results yesterday. 3Q revenue increased 143% YoY to $382m (vs consensus $348m) while reported an adjusted EBITDA (negative) of $161m (vs consensus $202m).
• The highlight of 3Q2022 earnings was the break-even of deliveries business as well as improvement in Mobilities financials driven by reduction in incentives (as % of GMV).
• Though the company called it a strong set of results, Grab’s share price moved up by 0.64% could be an indication that the profitability may not be sustainable.

• Singapore private market exchange ADDX has secured US$20 million in a pre-series B extension round.

• The new capital injection comes on top of the US$58 million that ADDX initially raised in May, the company said in a release.

• Regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, ADDX uses blockchain and smart contract tech to automate the manual processes in private market investing.

• MOGUL.sg’s 3D map supports searches with an immersive experience to help prospective buyers visualise the properties and their surrounding areas better.

• MOGUL.sg, an AI-driven property search portal in Singapore, has raised S$9 (US$6.5) million in its first-ever funding round.
• Launched in 2018, MOGUL.sg aims to make property searches easy with smart keywords, property tagging, and a specially curated agent concierge team to assist homeowners.

• Haw Par Corp (HPAR SP) is trading around multi-year trough levels on an implied stub valuation, and on an HPAR/UOL Group (UOL SP) ratio.
• Preceding my comments on HPAR are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
• These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

• Natural rubber play Halcyon Agri (HACL SP) was suspended ahead of trading on the 14 November.
• Word on the street is that a privatisation will be announced shortly. 
• The benefit of hindsight … Halcyon’s largest shareholder, SOE-backed Sinochem, recently increased its stake, paying ~S$0.45/share. 

• Sea Ltd (SE US) shares were up 36% yesterday following a relatively small top-line beat of 4.8% and a narrower-than-expected operating loss of $495.6m (consensus: $581.9) through rigorous cost-cutting.
• The share price move sets-up nicely to make gains on the short-side, as e-commerce and fintech remain unprofitable after cutting-down necessary expenses such as logistics and senior management cash compensation.
• We estimate the fair value of Sea Ltd at around $10.0bn EV compared to the current EV of $33.1bn, which implies a downside of 66% to Sea’s post-3Q22 price.

• China Hainan Rubber Industry (601118 CH) has entered a conditional SPA with Sinochem International Corporation A (600500 CH) to acquire a 36.00% stake in Halcyon Agri (HACL SP) at US$0.315/share.
• The SPA completion will trigger an MGO at US$0.315 (S$0.436) per share. The pre-conditions mainly relate to Chinese regulatory approvals which should be a formality due to SOE links.
• The MGO has a 50%+ minimum acceptance condition which requires around a 40% minorities acceptance rate. We think that this is achievable as the offer is attractive.

• The last leg of Sea Ltd (SE US)’s original bull thesis is about to break with Shopee’s revenue expected to start declining from 3Q22 onwards.
• However, a lower-than-expected operating loss, driven by cost-cutting could get the bulls excited for a short while following the 3Q22 results due later this week.
• With the business remaining unprofitable after cost-cutting, we think 3Q22 results could be another opportunity to profit on the short-side as the FV of Sea could be around $10bn EV.

In the upcoming webinar, Harmeet Bedi, Deputy CEO and CFO of PRIME US REIT, will share a short company presentation. After which, he will engage in a fireside chat with Smartkarma Insight Provider, Sumeet Singh. The Corporate Webinar will include a live Q&A session.

The webinar will be hosted on Tuesday, 29 November 2022, 17:00 SGT/HKT.

• There are 48 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal
• Four new deal were discussed on Smartkarma this week: Origin Energy (ORG AU), Totoku Electric (5807 JP), Uzabase Inc (3966 JP), and Golden Energy & Resources (GER SP) 
• Key updates took place for: Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU)/Pendal Group (PDL AU), Jinke Smart Services (9666 HK), Toshiba Corp (6502 JP), and Eagle Cement Corp (EAGLE PM).

• Golden Energy & Resources (GER SP) has proposed in-specie-ing its holding in Golden Energy Mines (GEMS IJ), subsequent to which the Widjaja family will undertake an Exit Offer.
• Ex-GEMS, the family is Offering S$0.16/share. That’s insulting. And the Offer was announced after GEAR’s share price had fallen 26%.  The Exit Offer has been declared final.
• GEAR’s jewel is the stake in GEMS, and shareholders are afforded future exposure. However, the stub ops are worth considerably more than S$0.16/share. 

• FTSE has announced that it will be changing Golden Agri Resources (GGR SP)‘s nationality from Singapore to Ineligible at the close on 16 December. 
• This means the stock will be deleted from the FTSE All-World Index at the close on 16 December. We estimate passive trackers will need to sell multiple days ADV.
• Golden Agri Resources (GGR SP) trades cheaper than a lot of its peers but has outperformed them over the last year. There could be a short-term reversal.

• Speedoc, a virtual clinic and healthcare solutions platform that brings advanced medical care to homes in Singapore and Malaysia, has announced closing its US$28 million pre-series B funding round.
• Founded in 2017, Speedoc is a virtual clinic and healthcare solutions platform enabling users access to home-based medical care and services. 
• It aims to drive medical care needs out of hospitals and clinics by delivering a full suite of healthcare services to homes.

• Golden Energy & Resources (GER SP)‘s proposal from the Widjaja family – The distribution proposal (1.3936 GEMS share per share or IDR5,500 per GEMS share) and the delisting proposal (S$0.160).
• For minorities, the good news is that the distribution share ratio is in line with the control ratio and offers are at a premium to historical share prices/multiples. 
• The bad news is that the distribution cash alternative is unattractive and the delisting offer values GEAR at a discount to the Stanmore Coal (SMR AU) stake adjusted for debt.

• Jardine Cycle & Carriage (JCNC SP) was deleted from the SIMSCI Index in November 2020 and could be added back to the index at the upcoming SAIR.
• If added to the index, we estimate passive MSCI trackers will need to buy 7.9m shares (US$176m; 11 days of ADV) at the close on 30 November.
• Jardine Cycle & Carriage (JCNC SP) is trading at a tight discount to its listed holdings and the spread could widen post the MSCI implementation.

• AEM reported its best PBT 3Q and 9M22 results ever, yet investors remain skeptical of its FY23 outlook
• Management reiterated guidance and provided a bullish statement about the coming years
• AEM EPS likely to reach at least 0.42 SGD leaving the stock trading at only 7.8x P/E FY22