Category

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Nov 18
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Good Morning Japan | Hopes Dashed but Resilience Evident and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Good Morning Japan | Hopes Dashed but Resilience Evident
  • China’s Efforts to Prop Up Property Market Fall Short
  • Airline Travel in Asia Set to Hit Two-Thirds of Pre-Covid Level: Report
  • China Eases Some Restrictions on Travel Agencies’ Cross-Province Services

Good Morning Japan | Hopes Dashed but Resilience Evident

By Mark Chadwick

  • Good Morning Japan:  We strive to provide the very best breaking macro, stock and thematic overnight news that will impact your trading day in Japan. FOLLOW US to keep abreast!
  • OVERNIGHT:  Hawkish Fed speak weigh on markets but digested as signs of economic weakening-housing, shipping; Markets and Tech resilient. AMAT 1Q guidance supportive; FTX debacle: “Complete failure of controls !”
  • JAPAN:  Flat open indicated; JPYUSD ¥140 handle; Likely takes the lead from the US; Expect supportive bids into weekend with AMAT guidance

China’s Efforts to Prop Up Property Market Fall Short

By Caixin Global

  • New property sales in China continued to plunge in October despite government attempts to stabilize the market, with top builders faring better than their peers.
  • The 100 largest developers — measured by sales value in the first 10 months of the year — recorded a combined 556 billion yuan ($76.7 billion) in sales last month, down 28.4% year-on-year and 2.6% month-on-month
  • China’s housing market, once a piston of the country’s economic growth engine, has lost much of its drive since last year following regulatory moves to clamp down on speculation and excessive borrowing.

Airline Travel in Asia Set to Hit Two-Thirds of Pre-Covid Level: Report

By Tech in Asia

  • Asia’s tourism industry has been resilient amid the global macroeconomic slowdown, research from JP Morgan shows.

  • Titled Asia Airlines and Airports, the report projects that airline travel in the region will hit two-thirds of pre-pandemic levels by the end of this year.
  • Thailand, which is poised to meet its 2022 foreign arrivals target of 10 million tourists, has been an especially strong market in the region.

China Eases Some Restrictions on Travel Agencies’ Cross-Province Services

By Caixin Global

  • China has eased some restrictions on the domestic tourism industry after policymakers tweaked the country’s “zero-Covid” policy.
  • The change came after the central government issued a new 20-point planaimed at making counter-Covid measures more targeted and less disruptive to the economy.
  • Travel agencies are now eagerly awaiting details from local authorities about what extent they can resume organizing cross-region group tours.

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Nov 17
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Malaysia: PH Is Stronger in West Malaysia and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Malaysia: PH Is Stronger in West Malaysia, but Sabah-Sarawak May Hold Final Cards
  • Good Morning Japan | Schizophrenic Markets!
  • Xi-Biden Meeting and G20 – A Temporary Respite?
  • Newfound Research Q3 2022 Commentary
  • Inflation Bites: India Consumer Sector – Rising Revenues, Dipping Margins in Sept. Quarter

Malaysia: PH Is Stronger in West Malaysia, but Sabah-Sarawak May Hold Final Cards

By Prasenjit K. Basu

  • We expect PH to win the 15th General Election, because it will win a majority of the seats in West Malaysia as the non-PH vote splits between UMNO and PN. 
  • PH may fall short of a national majority because it competes with local parties (rather than aligning with any major ones) in Sabah-Sarawak, which may hold the final cards.
  • While that is our baseline scenario, if current polling holds, PH will comfortably form the government with Anwar as PM. Winners will be technology companies and Hong Leong group.

Good Morning Japan | Schizophrenic Markets!

By Mark Chadwick

  • Good Morning Japan:  We strive to provide the very best breaking macro, stock and thematic overnight news that will impact your trading day in Japan. FOLLOW US to keep abreast!
  • OVERSEAS: Strong US retail numbers cast doubt on Fed pivot;  Micron’s cuts on memory wafers drag down Semis;   Crypto crisis spreads; Trump declares 2024 Presidential run – Dems doing cartwheels?
  • JAPAN: Toyota 5th Gen Prius – looks like a…TESLA, very cool!; Rohm joins PIF’s Toshiba bid with ¥300bn; Rakuten taps junk bond market for $500mn-things are really serious..

Xi-Biden Meeting and G20 – A Temporary Respite?

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Xi-Biden meeting could be the most harmonious state both sides can reach for a long time to come – Both sides could draw a red line and then start competing.
  • Both China and the US hope to pursue absolute security, but like the paradox, the absolute security of one side is the absolute insecurity of the other. 
  • The level of global development is so different that it’s impossible to have the same culture and so-called universal values. The world isn’t a fairy tale, nor is globalization.

Newfound Research Q3 2022 Commentary

By Fund Newsletters

  • Newfound, an SEC registered investment advisor, is a financial technology and product innovation firm enabling rule-based, behavior-driven investment strategies.
  • This commentary provides a high-level performance update for Q3 2022.
  • NFDIX returned -6.33% in Q3 2022.

Inflation Bites: India Consumer Sector – Rising Revenues, Dipping Margins in Sept. Quarter

By Devi Subhakesan

  • Despite a strong surge in sales in the Sept. quarter, most Indian consumer companies reported weak profit growth given negative impact of inflation, currency and interest rates.
  • Inflationary pressures from higher raw material costs, rise in fuel costs and higher wages have affected volume growth as companies attempted to effect price hikes to mitigate margin impact.
  • Leading FMCG companies have temporarily cut back on marketing spend during the quarter to offset the impact of cost pressures on operating margins.

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Nov 16
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Good Morning Japan |US PPI Fuels Fed Pivot View = Bullish Equities and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Good Morning Japan |US PPI Fuels Fed Pivot View = Bullish Equities
  • Tweedy, Browne Fund Q3 2022 Commentary

Good Morning Japan |US PPI Fuels Fed Pivot View = Bullish Equities

By Mark Chadwick

  • Good Morning Japan:  We strive to provide the very best breaking macro, stock and thematic overnight news that will impact your trading day in Japan. FOLLOW US to keep abreast!
  • OVERSEAS: Slowing PPI fuels Fed pivot view; UST yields fall as Tech gets bid; Add to that China stimulating+thaw in US tensions; 12M Momentum to Growth shift continues.
  • JAPAN: NKY Futures  FLAT vs Cash; USDJPY at 139 handle with latest PPI  and lower UST yields; Cit D/G of Sumco appear       mis-timed with global bid in longer duration stocks(GROWTH).

Tweedy, Browne Fund Q3 2022 Commentary

By Fund Newsletters

  • Tweedy, Browne Company LLC provides investment advisory services. The Company offers portfolio management, financial planning, and consulting services for individuals, institutions, partnerships, pension and profit-sharing plans, charitable foundations, trusts, and offshore funds. Tweedy, Browne serves investors in the U.S.
  • In this volatile environment, the Tweedy, Browne Funds trailed their respective primary benchmark indices for the quarter.
  • Returns for the quarter were led by solid results from a number of our branded consumer product holdings.
  • As a result of the ongoing volatility, our fundportfolios over the last year havebeen in the process of becoming refreshedwith a significant number of new stocks.
  • Theopportunity set being presented tous today in non-US equities is one of thebest we have seen in well over adecade.

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Nov 15
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Good Morning Japan | The Hawk Vs The Dove..the Dove Has It ! and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Good Morning Japan | The Hawk Vs The Dove..the Dove Has It !
  • Baron Funds Q3 2022 Report – Letter From Ron
  • Merion Road Capital Q3 2022 Investor Letter
  • SaltLight Capital Management Q3 2022 Co-Investor Letter
  • Weekly Stock Bullfinder – Week of 11/14

Good Morning Japan | The Hawk Vs The Dove..the Dove Has It !

By Mark Chadwick

  • Good Morning Japan:  We strive to provide the very best breaking macro, stock and thematic overnight news that will impact your trading day in Japan. FOLLOW US to keep abreast!
  • OVERNIGHT:  Partial reversal – Sell BETA/Buy Momentum; Contrasting views from the Fed; Amazon cuts 10,000; FedEx furloughs workers – probably the doves it; Positive China – finally the bottom in?
  • JAPAN: Flat open vs Cash on the NKY; Buybacks continues – now the megabanks get involved; Not a heavy news day but watch out for Matsumotokio(3088) -strong 2Qs

Baron Funds Q3 2022 Report – Letter From Ron

By Fund Newsletters

  • Baron is an asset management firm focused on delivering growth equity investment solutions known for long-term, fundamental, active approach to growth investing.
  • We expect additional, substantial appreciation for Tesla and SpaceX.
  • 84.3% of our assets are NOT invested in Tesla and SpaceX, but rather are invested in other exceptionally attractive growth companies.
  • We have always believed that any recessions or declines in the value of our growth business holdings would not be long-lasting.
  • Think long term about everything, guard your reputation zealously, make sure your balance sheet is as close to impregnable as possible.

Merion Road Capital Q3 2022 Investor Letter

By Fund Newsletters

  • Merion Road Capital Management LLC is a registered investment adviser. We focus on value-oriented investing through rigorous fundamental analysis of a company’s operations.
  • Q3 2022 was a disappointing quarter.
  • We should extend our investment horizon exactly when others shorten theirs.

SaltLight Capital Management Q3 2022 Co-Investor Letter

By Fund Newsletters

  • SaltLight Capital Management started in 2015 and has grown tremendously, with assets under management doubling each year. Our investment process is continuously evolving.
  • Despite the market downturn our cumulative redemptions are a mere basis points of the fund.
  • We are more concerned with the ‘two birds in the bush’ so to speak; and then extending the adage further: what is the price implying to catch these plump birds.
  • With a more concentrated portfolio of businesses, portfolio volatility can be higher, but volatility can be compensated with higher returns.
  • We have no conviction about the direction of the market – we don’t believe one can consistently predict this with high accuracy.

Weekly Stock Bullfinder – Week of 11/14

By Weekly Stock Bull Finder

  • This past week the news was dominated by political midterm election results and a brewing crypto market implosion but also featured a late week rally after a surprising CPI inflation print which beat estimates on Thursday.
  • While pundits can posit various reasons for Thursday and Friday’s market rallies, there appears to be at least a few brewing catalysts that could carry positive momentum into 2023 which include 1) continued downside surprises in either CPI or PCE inflation data which would allow the Fed to back off its aggressive tightening campaign 2) steps leading to Chinese economy reopening reducing existing supply chain bottlenecks 3) steps leading to a ceasefire or peace agreement in Ukraine and 4) significant improvement in EU energy security situation resulting in lower EU inflation.
  • In the near term, it appears as of this writing that political gridlock in Washington D.C. will be upon us for the next 2 years removing the worst case scenarios of any significant market-negative legislation (i.e. tax hikes, etc.) being passed.

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Nov 14
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Good Morning Japan | Bulls Still in Charge and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Good Morning Japan | Bulls Still in Charge
  • China’s Latest COVID Policy: What Are the Plays?
  • China Optimized COVID Policy and Possible Reopen Timeline
  • Japan’s Big 3 Convenience Stores Try to Innovate Out of Saturation
  • Japanese Convenience Stores Recover but Where Will Future Growth Come From?

Good Morning Japan | Bulls Still in Charge

By Mark Chadwick

  • Good Morning Japan:  We strive to provide the very best breaking macro, stock and thematic overnight news that will impact your trading day in Japan. FOLLOW us to keep abreast!
  • OVERNIGHT:  BETA bid with Commodities &Tech leading; Momentum & Value sold; SOX +15%WoW; China 20-point plan on COVID-19 easing;  FTX Bankruptcy – CEO flees the US. Democrats retain Senate-IRA safe.
  • JAPAN:  NKY Futs  -0.5% vs Cash; Further yen strength with USDJPY ¥138.81; Bain to lift JP invest >$40b-focus is Kansai tech cos; No new Softbank buyback; Rakuten losing mobile subs

China’s Latest COVID Policy: What Are the Plays?

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • China’s twists in its COVID combating measures are positive to the economy as many quarantine requirements are relaxed and secondary contacts are not identified and traced.
  • The latest change should bring more spending confidence to the consumers, and this will benefit consumer discretionary companies in the retail and F&B sectors. 
  • Relaxed quarantine requirements are positive to the travel and hospitality companies. Chinese airlines and international air tickets have seen immediate demand surge after the announcement.  

China Optimized COVID Policy and Possible Reopen Timeline

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • There’re many fake news about China’s COVID policy.We think it necessary to discuss the situation and establish a rational expectation. Investors are advised to consider the credibility of related news.
  • The government has set a clear tone for the Zero COVID policy and implementation standard. There’re also some changes. It is expected that there would be multi steps toward reopening. 
  • The zero-COVID policy could make economic sense. We advise investors to see the essence of things.

Japan’s Big 3 Convenience Stores Try to Innovate Out of Saturation

By Michael Causton

  • With convenience stores at saturation, the question is how the big 3 chains, Seven Eleven, Lawson Inc (2651 JP) and Familymart can grow.
  • Their long-standing reputation for innovation is deserved and they continue to adjust quickly to new realities, including during Covid. 
  • They are also now creating new events, hybrid stores and even advertising revenue streams. The following is a review of the key strategies of the big 3 chains.

Japanese Convenience Stores Recover but Where Will Future Growth Come From?

By Michael Causton

  • Convenience store retailing was one of the worst hit retail sectors during Covid as commuters and students stayed at home. Recovery has taken time but is on track. 
  • Recovery aside, however, the sector has reached saturation, so the only way to grow is to maximise traffic to stores and the amount each customer spends.
  • This is forcing unprecedented innovation on a sector already famous for it but it won’t be enough to generate the growth rates of the past.

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Nov 13
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Japan Weekly | A Bull Market? Shiseido and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Japan Weekly | A Bull Market? Shiseido, TEL, Lasertec
  • China Healthcare Weekly (Nov.11)-Largest Spring Coil VBP; Biological Drug VBP; FDA Changes Game Rule
  • GEM Weekly (11 Nov 2022): Chinese Inflation, Malaysia, Indonesia GDP; Reliance, Jio, TSMC

Japan Weekly | A Bull Market? Shiseido, TEL, Lasertec

By Mark Chadwick

  • It has been a positive week for Japanese equities, especially the tech, consumer and industrial names that we keep a watchful eye on.
  • One hundred out of the 120 stocks that we have on our watchlist recorded positive gains, with a median return of 3.5%
  • Are we in a bull market? 90 of the names are trading above the 50d Moving Average. Lasertec is looking the most stretched: 47% above the 50d

China Healthcare Weekly (Nov.11)-Largest Spring Coil VBP; Biological Drug VBP; FDA Changes Game Rule

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The “Spring Coil Alliance Centralized Procurement” in 21 provinces led by Jilin is about to start. Such large-scale centralized procurement has certain reference significance for future nationwide centralized procurement expansion.
  • The rules and varieties of 8th national VBP could change, and biological drugs may be included in VBP together with chemical drugs.
  • The US FDA has recently tightened the policy of accelerated approval, which is correct, because at present, pharmaceutical enterprises are trying to “exploit loopholes”.

GEM Weekly (11 Nov 2022): Chinese Inflation, Malaysia, Indonesia GDP; Reliance, Jio, TSMC

By Wium Malan, CFA

  • The Global Emerging Markets weekly provides a summary of the key news and related developments impacting the largest countries and constituents of the Global Emerging Markets equity indices.
  • Macro data points: Chinese inflation data; Malaysian and Indonesian GDP growth
  • Companies mentioned:Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT), Reliance Communications (RCOM IN), Jio

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Nov 11
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Good Morning Japan | Inflation Slain? = Buy Everything Rally and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Good Morning Japan | Inflation Slain? = Buy Everything Rally
  • Cosmetics-Makers Slash Double 11 Marketing Budgets as Consumer Spending Slumps

Good Morning Japan | Inflation Slain? = Buy Everything Rally

By Mark Chadwick

  • Good Morning Japan: We strive to provide the best macro, stock and thematic overnight news that will impact the trading day in Japan. Like this ?  Feedback appreciated !
  • BUY EVERY RALLY:  Equities, USD, Yen – market now priced in peak CPI and Fed Pivot. Still, we have a ways to go.
  • NKY to up 1.8% vs cash; Yen now 141 handle – not positive for all companies; Buybacks continue at a torried pace; Machine Tools -YoY. Negative Fanuc

Cosmetics-Makers Slash Double 11 Marketing Budgets as Consumer Spending Slumps

By Caixin Global

  • China’s cosmetics companies are just one sector to have cut marketing budgets for this year’s “Double 11” shopping season as retail spending continues to dwindle and logistics services suffer amid Covid-19 outbreaks.
  • Merchants are focusing on sales growth during the annual e-commerce bonanza instead of spending vast sums on marketing and promotional campaigns.
  • The Double 11 event, also known as “Singles’ Day,” is one of the biggest money-earners in the retail calendar.

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Nov 10
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Good Morning Japan | Crypto Thursday – Crash Continues and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Good Morning Japan | Crypto Thursday – Crash Continues
  • Corporate Lending’s Rising Profitability: Time for a Shift in Banks’ Focus?

Good Morning Japan | Crypto Thursday – Crash Continues

By Mark Chadwick

  • Good Morning Japan: We strive to provide the very best breaking macro, stock and thematic overnight news and market moves that will impact the trading day in Japan.
  • US stock rally fizzles as Red Wave  downgraded to a mere ripple. Bitcoin meltdown takes center stage as market suddenly cares. Disney hit hard but META +5% on job cuts
  • NKY futs  indicate-70bp vs cash.  8th COVID Wave – but no restrictions. S&I sells Seibu & Sogo; PE bid for Uzabase; Speculation of Softbank going private; Big NEXON buyback

Corporate Lending’s Rising Profitability: Time for a Shift in Banks’ Focus?

By Hemindra Hazari

  • Strong profits and profitability growth by Indian banks (with few exceptions)
  • Corporate lending major driver of overall profits and profitability of banks
  • Banks may need to reconsider their retail asset focused strategy

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Nov 09
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Good Morning Japan – Wed Gridlock Rally and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Good Morning Japan – Wed Gridlock Rally
  • Crypto Mining Industry Series: Looking For Bright Spots As The Darkest Months Ahead

Good Morning Japan – Wed Gridlock Rally

By Mark Chadwick

  • Good Morning Japan: A detailed look at the overnight news and market moves that will impact the trading day in Japan
  • OVERNIGHT: Gridlock rally continues.. Materials and tech leading.  Brief interruptions from a mini-crypto crash.  All good now. but we look to inflation numbers
  • IN JAPAN:  All good – Govt approves stimulus of ¥29trn; USDJPY stabilizing as market turns bullish yen; Strong earnings from Sumco;  Positive semi initiation in European with positive JP read

Crypto Mining Industry Series: Looking For Bright Spots As The Darkest Months Ahead

By Andrei Zakharov

  • Bitcoin mining companies continue to suffer from crypto winter’s market conditions: substantial drop in mining rig prices, low cryptocurrency prices, heightened volatility, and unprofitable mining operations.
  • We are looking for bright spots and believe Marathon Digital Holdings and Riot Blockchain will survive the crypto winter with the opportunity to win market share in the coming years.
  • Our analysis suggests all-in-breakeven costs (miner costs+power costs+OpEx) of the most efficient BTC mining companies to mine a BTC close to the current BTC price of ~$20,000. 

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Nov 07
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Good Morning Japan (November 7 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Good Morning Japan (November 7, 2022)
  • Weekly Stock Bullfinder – Week of 11/7

Good Morning Japan (November 7, 2022)

By Mark Chadwick

  • Good Morning Japan: A detailed look at the overnight news and market moves that will impact the trading day in Japan
  • US rally overnight on mixed employment and hopes of easing of China Covid-19 restrictions. China officials pour cold water these hopes – look for reversal 
  • Daikin Nikkei Preview – looks weak; Defense stocks likely gets support; SMBC takes that axe to SMBC Nikko CEO  – harsh.

Weekly Stock Bullfinder – Week of 11/7

By Weekly Stock Bull Finder

  • Michael Kantro (@MichaelKantro), Chief Investment Strategist at Piper Sandler, put together the “HOPE” roadmap to illustrate the chronology of how and where the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes ripple through and impact the economy.
  • The order of the HOPE roadmap dictates that the housing market is the first to slow, followed by new orders, then S&P 500 profits, and last is the employment market.
  • The Federal Reserve’s latest increase, the fourth consecutive increase of 75 points, brings the federal funds rate – which acts as a benchmark for everything including business loans, credit card and mortgage rates – to between 3.75% and 4%, the highest level since January 2008.

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