Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Japanese markets surged, with the Nikkei rising 3.2% on a weaker yen, strong earnings, and tech sector gains, while BoJ held rates steady amid cautious forecasts.
Japan’s economic data showed mixed trends, including falling industrial output, modest retail growth, and declining consumer confidence, raising concerns about domestic demand and labour market softness.
Top stock performers included Sumi Pharma, Toyota Industries, and Nidec, driven by strong earnings, privatization speculation, and bold profit and restructuring plans that lifted investor sentiment.

#141 India Insight: China Reviews U.S. Tariff Offer, Oyo Delays IPO to 2026, JSW Faces Setback

China is “evaluating” the U.S. tariff negotiation offer, demanding tariff removal and addressing practices, while the U.S. stays optimistic.
Oyo (1698548D IN) delays its IPO to 2026, targeting a $7 billion valuation, amid SoftBank’s concerns and restructuring of a $2.2 billion loan.
JSW Steel Ltd (JSTL IN)‘s resolution plan for Bhushan Power is rejected by the Supreme Court, directing liquidation, causing shares to drop 6%.

STAN – Window on HK Worsening, but Also Group Grade 12 Loans up 78% YoY

Standard Chartered (STAN LN) results are most interesting, like with HSBC Holdings (5 HK) , for what they show on specific regions
STAN reports in its HK region credit costs rising to USD89m in 1Q25 fromUSD39m YoY. This is now 41% of group credit costs from 22% YoY
Grade 12 loans are of low quality, not yet NPL. These are up 78% YoY and similar rise QoQ. There is no clear geo detail on this high delta

WTR Small-Cap Spotlight Recap: Deep-Sea Mining Industry Coming of Age

On the latest WTR Small-Cap Spotlight, we joined host Tim Gerdeman, Founder, Vice-Chairman, and Chief Marketing Officer at WTR, to discuss the recent developments in the deep-sea mining industry, including pros and cons of seabed mining, the importance of polymetallic nodules in meeting global critical metals needs and the regulatory environment, including the ISA’s inability to deliver on its mandate, and the US government’s steps to position the country as a leader in seabed mining.
Technological improvements and growing body of environmental data make DSM a viable pathway to critical metal independence.
While the roots of deep-sea mining go back to the 1970s and 1980s, with the US leading the way in technology of environmentally responsible mining of seabed mineral resources, significant work has been done over the past 50 years to optimize the collection technology and develop regulatory standards for safe exploitation of deep-sea mineral and metal deposits, dispelling much of the NGO-raised speculation with respect to the environmental impact of such activities.

Thematic Report : Why Is India’s Banking Witnessing a Slowdown in Credit Growth?

India’s top private banks, HDFC, ICICI, and Axis, saw a significant slowdown in credit growth to 11% in Q4 FY25 from 15-20% of expectations, i.e down from 16.5% last year
This moderation is due to softer loan demand, strategic balance sheet adjustments, and HDFC’s merger in it’s case.
Despite this, asset quality remains strong, and the banks are focused on building a solid deposit base for future growth.

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May 02

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Junior Copper Miners: Ecuador Sees M&A Action by China and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Junior Copper Miners: Ecuador Sees M&A Action by China
Ohayo Japan | Nasdaq Surges on Key Tech Earnings
#139 India Insight: Coke Grows in Q1, Apple Ups India Output, RBI Names New IndusInd Heads
Japan Morning Connection: US Markets Rally for 8th Day Although Apple and Amazon Miss After-Mkt
India Two-Wheeler OEMs – April EV Sales Dip Post-Policy Shift; Near-Term Trends Under Watch
The Effects of New Tariff on Chinese E Commerce

Junior Copper Miners: Ecuador Sees M&A Action by China

By Nicolas Van Broekhoven

In April a Chinese buyer made an offer for Ross Beaty controlled Lumina Gold (LUM CN), an Ecuador gold project.
One of our top picks Solaris Resources (SLS CN) surged on the back of this news as it indicates Ecuador is open for business after the re-election of President Noboa.
Copper prices have remained resilient despite ongoing “USA vs the World” trade war.

Ohayo Japan | Nasdaq Surges on Key Tech Earnings

Nasdaq rose 1.5% as Microsoft, Meta, and Apple earnings eased tariff fears; jobless claims rose; trade tensions showed signs of easing.
Apple beat Q2 earnings with $1.64 EPS and $95.4B revenue, driven by strong iPhone sales, authorized $100B buyback.
Mitsui & Co. forecasts a 14% drop in consolidated net profit to 770 billion yen, driven by declining iron ore and coking coal prices and yen appreciation.

#139 India Insight: Coke Grows in Q1, Apple Ups India Output, RBI Names New IndusInd Heads

The Maha Kumbh Mela boosted Coca Cola Co (KO US)‘s India sales, driving double-digit volume growth in Q1, with over 180 million servings consumed.
Amid escalating US-China trade tensions, Apple (AAPL US) accelerates its iPhone production in India, opening new factories and preparing for record shipments.
RBI has approved an interim executive committee to manage Indusind Bank (IIB IN) following CEO Sumant Kathpalia’s exit, with Soumitra Sen and Anil Rao overseeing operations.

Japan Morning Connection: US Markets Rally for 8th Day Although Apple and Amazon Miss After-Mkt

Another strong showing for tech and AI names after Meta’s big capex plans price in.
Solid print for HVAC major Carrier should set positive tone for Daikin.
Hokkaido Electric Power Co nightmare squeeze redux? +14.8% yesterday post-earnings.

India Two-Wheeler OEMs – April EV Sales Dip Post-Policy Shift; Near-Term Trends Under Watch

By Sreemant Dudhoria

EV 2W Sales Slide 30% in April: Post-March correction driven by subsidy cuts and seasonal softening; YoY momentum still +39%.
Subsidy Cuts Reset the Playing Field: PM e-Drive scheme slashes EV support, testing price elasticity and OEM pricing strategy.
OEMs at a Crossroads: With volume volatility rising, the next few months will reveal who can defend share—and who can’t.

The Effects of New Tariff on Chinese E Commerce

By J Capital Research

How will Chinese e-commerce companies survive the new tariff regime? We believe at least one of these companies will be hobbled.
Coming elimination on May 2 of the de minimis rule, which previously avoided tariffs on imported packages worth $800 or less, is perhaps the most immediately impactful change in trade policy that has already affected prices.
The cancellation of the de minimis rule (intended to permit individuals to import products tariff-free for personal use but which has been widely applied to all low-value products) took effect for a single day on April 2, 2025, was subsequently removed, and will be reinstated on May 2.

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May 01

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Wall Street Ends Volatile April Higher on Tech Boost and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Ohayo Japan | Wall Street Ends Volatile April Higher on Tech Boost
#138 India Insight: HZL Eyes Potash, Reliance Quick Commerce Grows, Whirlpool Stake Sale
Japan Morning Connection: US Markets Go Risk-On Shrugging off Earlier SMCI Weakness
HSBC – BoCom Losses Not Yet Realized, Credit Metrics in HK and UK Are Worsening
Thematic Report: India Home-Services Market- Digital Disruption in ₹5 Trn TAM Market

Ohayo Japan | Wall Street Ends Volatile April Higher on Tech Boost

U.S. stocks rebounded Wednesday to close a volatile April, with the S&P 500 rising 0.15% and the Nasdaq finishing near flat after steep early losses
Microsoft beat earnings on strong cloud demand, and Meta delivered strong results with solid guidance despite advertising headwinds.
Tokyo Electron forecasts a 4% net profit rise to 566 billion yen for FY2026, driven by strong AI semiconductor equipment demand, with sales up 7% to 2,600 billion yen.

#138 India Insight: HZL Eyes Potash, Reliance Quick Commerce Grows, Whirlpool Stake Sale

Hindustan Zinc (HZ IN) , part of Vedanta group, plans to enter potash mining in Rajasthan, exploring lithium potential.
Reliance Retail scales up quick commerce with 2.4x growth, plans dark stores to enhance delivery coverage and speed.
Whirlpool Corp (WHR US) plans to sell 31% stake in India unit, attracting interest from private equity giants like Advent and Bain.

Japan Morning Connection: US Markets Go Risk-On Shrugging off Earlier SMCI Weakness

SOX rallied +4% off its lows with a host of positive earnings including Qorvo, Western Digital and Seagate.
Bigger than expected capex plans for Meta positive for Japan SPE to start.
Tokyo Electron numbers yesterday were inline but show less reliance on China sales.

HSBC – BoCom Losses Not Yet Realized, Credit Metrics in HK and UK Are Worsening

What matters with HSBC results is really not the bottom line, the management view or the constant currency comparatives, but rather the view on specific regions.
Still there is concern HSBC has not yet realized losses on BoCom, it is not marked to market; there will be an impairment of USD1.2-1.6bn from dilution
HK shows credit costs rising from USD233m to USD320m YoY in 1Q25 and UK shows credit costs rising from USD55m to USD169m YoY, both are key to HSBC

Thematic Report: India Home-Services Market- Digital Disruption in ₹5 Trn TAM Market

India’s home-services spend touched INR 4.99–5.07 trn in CY 2024 and is set to reach INR 8.22–8.35 trn by CY 2029 (10-11 % CAGR).
Online full-stack GMV is only INR 40–42 bn (0.8 % of spend) today yet grows 20-22 % CAGR to INR 105-110 bn by CY 2029.
Formalisation, gig-supply depth and tech-led standardisation give platforms head-room to triple GMV and double margins within five years while still capturing <2 % of TAM.

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Apr 30

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Chartered Insights: Impact of Pahalgam Terrorist Attack On Markets and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Chartered Insights: Impact of Pahalgam Terrorist Attack On Markets
New Trading Angle for Korean Market Re-Rating: Flow Gap from English IR Materials
Japan Banks – Net Interest Income, Credit Cost, Trading Gains, All Support Profit
Japan Morning Connection: SMCI Numbers Casts a Gloomy Shadow over All Things AI to Start Today
#137 India Insight: India’s Export Edge, Reliance’s Haier Play, and 2.4x Surge in Quick Orders
Fertilizing Self-Reliance: India’s Fertiliser Industry Set to Double Capacity in 2025-26
Thematic Report: Tariffs, Global Conflicts and Earnings Effect on the Indian Market
Themes of India: Revival of Indian Steel Industry Cycle In Q4 Feasible?
Monday Delight: 28/04/25
[Blue Lotus Daily]:LI US/MNSO US/601933 CH/1211 HK/1519 HK/Macro Update

Chartered Insights: Impact of Pahalgam Terrorist Attack On Markets

The Pahalgam terrorist attack on April 25, 2025 caused a brief market correction, with the Nifty 50 falling by 0.86% which was in line with past trends.
Historically, geopolitical shocks like the Kargil War (1999) and Pulwama attack (2019) caused minimal corrections, with the Sensex rebounding by 33% post-Kargil and 400 points in two sessions after 26/11.
The market’s swift recovery, with the Nifty gaining 1.20% on April 28, 2025. Experts project a mild 5-10% correction if tensions escalate, followed by a return to fundamentals.

New Trading Angle for Korean Market Re-Rating: Flow Gap from English IR Materials

By Sanghyun Park

The main issue with IFRS 18 is that it counts non-regular items like asset sales or FX gains as operating profit, potentially misleading investors about a company’s actual business performance.
As the Korean market might re-rate, companies with solid English IR materials could attract more global attention, creating trading opportunities, while others might face a significant flow gap.
As Blue Orca’s Soren Aandahl noted, small- and mid-cap stocks, especially those with English IR updates, could drive trading flows as the 2027 IFRS 18 rollout approaches.

Japan Banks – Net Interest Income, Credit Cost, Trading Gains, All Support Profit

The story for Japan’s banks is multifaceted with several line items working in tandem to support profit and profit delta
Net interest income strength that we see with MUFG, SMFG, Chiba and SBI Sumishin Net Bank can continue, given outlook on loans and pricing
Delta in credit costs is generally benign, allowing good flow through, with a recurring nature of equity trading gains – a unique feature in Japan banking

Japan Morning Connection: SMCI Numbers Casts a Gloomy Shadow over All Things AI to Start Today

Expect weakness after poor SMCI numbers sends AI related plays lower in late trading including NVDA and DELL.
Qorvo bucking the trend with a better-then-expected outlook despite Apple uncertainty in China.
Sony looking to spin off its semiconductor solutions business a watershed for unlocking shareholder value.

#137 India Insight: India’s Export Edge, Reliance’s Haier Play, and 2.4x Surge in Quick Orders

As US-China tariffs surge, Indian exporters, particularly in hand tools, electronics, and home appliances, gain a unique opportunity to fulfill US orders, bolstering Indian manufacturing and export growth.
Reliance Industries (RIL IN) acquisition push for Haier India strengthens its electronics sector presence, signaling a strategic move to compete with market leaders and diversify its consumer portfolio amid geopolitical tensions.
Reliance Industries (RIL IN) rapid expansion of dark stores aims to enhance delivery speeds, reinforcing its position in India’s quick commerce sector with sub-30-minute delivery times and no hidden fee.

Fertilizing Self-Reliance: India’s Fertiliser Industry Set to Double Capacity in 2025-26

By Viral Kishorchandra Shah

Industry to add 1,298 thousand tonnes capacity in 2025-26, doubling previous year’s additions to reduce imports
Production expected to rise 2% in 2025-26, with revival in urea output and continued growth in non-urea segment
Revenues rise after six quarters of decline; operating profit surged 55.8% with margin expansion to 7% in Q3 2024-25

Thematic Report: Tariffs, Global Conflicts and Earnings Effect on the Indian Market

The market rebound reflects optimism regarding global growth and domestic earnings, despite high uncertainty around global GDP, tariffs, and the US dollar.
There is increased uncertainty in global markets due to the shifting economic order. Indian exports, especially in automobiles and IT services, may face long-term risks from higher tariffs
The outlook for sectors like automobiles, IT services, and consumer consumption needs to be revised due to global trade tensions and weakened demand.

Themes of India: Revival of Indian Steel Industry Cycle In Q4 Feasible?

Steelmakers are set for strong Q4 growth, with rising HRC prices and falling raw material costs boosting operating margins by INR 1,200-1,800 per tonne for steelmakers.
Lower input costs, particularly coking coal along with GOI’s ADD will significantly improve profitability for steelmakers.
JSW Steel Ltd (JSTL IN) , Jindal Steel & Power (JSP IN) , Tata Steel Ltd (TATA IN), Steel Authority of India (SAIL IN) expects surge in PAT upto 700%.

Monday Delight: 28/04/25

By Contrarian Cashflows

Each week, I’ll share five intriguing investment ideas that recently caught my attention.
These ideas are meant to spark your research and help you kickstart the week ahead with fresh insights.
Because these ideas are the result of my first-level idea generation process, they require more in depth research. Therefore, the ideas will often be concise, with occasional references to valuable work from other practitioners that I encourage you to explore.

[Blue Lotus Daily]:LI US/MNSO US/601933 CH/1211 HK/1519 HK/Macro Update

By Eric Wen

Macro Update: NDRC Reiterates Incremental Policies Are in Preparation (+)
LI US: Li Auto Announces Free Charging and Road Rescue Services for May Holiday(-)
MNSO US/601933 CH:Yonghui Superstores 1Q25 Revenue and Net Profit Decline 19% and 80% YoY(-/-)

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Apr 29

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): HK Strategy: Sell in May and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

HK Strategy: Sell in May, Go Away? The History Says Yes!
Chartered Insights: The Fallout of Indo-Pak Trade Suspension April,2025
US Banks – Off Balance Sheet, Decline of C&I Commitments, Not A Good Sign
Ohayo Japan | Flat Ahead of Big Tech Earnings
Japan – New Loan Officer Survey Is Positive for Lending Growth, for Banks, Underlying Economy
Furniture/Furnishings Weekly: Gen Z Pushes RTO; Chinese Imports Drop
Biopharma Week in Review: Makary Sparked FDA Optimism; Growing Pushback on HHS Changes
Sustainable Investing Surveyor Focus on Westwater Resources

HK Strategy: Sell in May, Go Away? The History Says Yes!

By Osbert Tang, CFA

Statistics supported “Sell in May, go away” for the HSI. Since 2013, the average return for May is -2%, and is negative in 8 out of the last 12 years.
On average, May is the worst month since 2020, too. This even eclipsed the month of Oct, which is widely believed to be normally the worst month.
If a weak May happens, the heavily weighted yet strongly performed constituents like BYD (1211 HK), Alibaba Group (9988 HK), and Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK) are to suffer.

Chartered Insights: The Fallout of Indo-Pak Trade Suspension April,2025

Pakistan’s suspension of bilateral trade with India impacts supply chains, but India’s diversified trade routes through third countries like Dubai and Singapore provide resilience.
India’s trade surplus with Pakistan is at risk, particularly in key sectors like pharmaceuticals, tea, and fertilizers, which could cause supply disruptions in Pakistan.
India’s economy remains largely unaffected due to negligible imports of $0.48 Million, while Pakistan faces heightened inflation and shortages of critical goods, deepening economic strain.

US Banks – Off Balance Sheet, Decline of C&I Commitments, Not A Good Sign

A commercial & industrial (C&I) loan commitment is a commitment to lend that a bank provides a company for a fee, so that draw-down can be immediate, when needed
Granular quarterly data from the Fed shows unused C&I loan commitments down USD142bn QoQ in 4Q24 or -5.2% QoQ.
The only other time there was such a sharp contraction was in 1Q20 when it was -12.5% QoQ or where it was down USD266bn QoQ.

Ohayo Japan | Flat Ahead of Big Tech Earnings

Stocks ended mixed, recovering from early losses as investors focused on upcoming Big Tech earnings and economic data
Hitachi unveiled a three-year management plan targeting growth through artificial intelligence with a 500 billion yen investment in new businesses
Komatsu forecasts a 30% decline in net profit to 309 billion yen, driven by a 79 billion yen cost increase from U.S. tariffs and yen appreciation

Japan – New Loan Officer Survey Is Positive for Lending Growth, for Banks, Underlying Economy

The BOJ released its loan officer survey on 21 April which is generally positive for lending demand at firms and eased credit standards (willingness to lend)
Demand for credit over past 3 months for firms, 43 respondents were about the same, 6 were moderately stronger, 1 substantially stronger. No respondents were weaker
Lending policies saw most respondents unchanged, but there were some as ‘eased somewhat’ and 1 ‘eased considerably’ with no respondents reporting tightening

Furniture/Furnishings Weekly: Gen Z Pushes RTO; Chinese Imports Drop

Market retracement as policy volatility remains high.
The WTR Commercial/Contract Furniture Index was up 4.8%, the Residential Manufacturers & Suppliers Index was up 4.9%, and the Home Goods Retailers Index improved by 9.7% as the broader indices surged higher.
Gen Z pushing for Return-to-Office (1). Over the past year, many firms have begun pushing harder for employees to return to the office in order to enhance corporate culture, improve learning and networking opportunities for employees, and enhance organizational agility and innovation.

Biopharma Week in Review: Makary Sparked FDA Optimism; Growing Pushback on HHS Changes

FDA Commissioner Martin Makary injected some regulatory optimism with his first public comments, advocating for accelerated drug approval pathways.
While biopharma headlines were a roller coaster, investors appeared ready to grasp any positive news, despite more signs of FDA dysfunction.
In an E&Y report reviewed by Reuters, 25% pharma tariffs would increase drug costs by $51 billion, leading to either 12.9% higher prices or reductions in R&D efforts and workforce.

Sustainable Investing Surveyor Focus on Westwater Resources

The WTR Sustainable Index was up 4.3% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (up 4.6%), the Russell 2000 Index (up 4.1%) and the Nasdaq Index (up 6.4%).
Energy Technology (12.6% of the index) was up 5.1%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (47.1% of the index) was up 5.6%, ClimateTech Mining was down 1.0%, and Advanced Transportation Solutions (21.3% of the index) was up 5.8%.
Top 10 Performers: AMY, PLL, AVL, IRBT, SLI, COMM, PE, NGPHF, MEOH, HSC

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Apr 28

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Tech Leads Market as S&P 500 Posts 4.6% Weekly Gain and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Ohayo Japan | Tech Leads Market as S&P 500 Posts 4.6% Weekly Gain
Japan Morning Connection: Rebound Continues with the SPX Clocking Its Best Run Since January
CHMP Meeting Update April 2025: Sixteen New Medicines Recommended For Approval

Ohayo Japan | Tech Leads Market as S&P 500 Posts 4.6% Weekly Gain

The S&P 500 closed higher by 0.7% and the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.3% on Friday.
Advantest forecasts net sales of 755 billion yen, down 3%, and operating profit of 242 billion yen, up 6%, for the fiscal year ending March 2026
Toyota Industries is considering going private via a takeover bid by a special purpose company (SPC) backed by Toyota and other group companies

Japan Morning Connection: Rebound Continues with the SPX Clocking Its Best Run Since January

Tech and AI leading gains but the current rally feels like its running out of steam.
Languid outlook from Advantest will not enthuse Japan SPE names.
Shin Etsu blowing the doors off with a Y500bn buyback.

CHMP Meeting Update April 2025: Sixteen New Medicines Recommended For Approval

By Tina Banerjee

EMA’s human medicines committee (CHMP) recommended sixteen medicines for approval at its April 2025 meeting. CHMP also adopted positive opinion for nine biosimilar medicines.
Among the new medicines, Vertex’s triple combination cystic fibrosis drug Alyftrek, Amgen’s Thyroid eye disease drug Tepezza, and Jazz Pharmaceutical’s billiary tract cancer drug Ziihera have potential to become blockbusters.
The Agency has recommended the refusal of the marketing authorization for Eli Lilly’s Alzheimer’s Disease drug Kisunla. Eli Lilly may ask for a re-examination of the opinion within 15 days.

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Apr 27

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): APAC Healthcare Weekly (April 27)- Sillajen and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

APAC Healthcare Weekly (April 27)- Sillajen, Akeso, Innovent Biologics, CSL, Daiichi Sankyo, Lupin

APAC Healthcare Weekly (April 27)- Sillajen, Akeso, Innovent Biologics, CSL, Daiichi Sankyo, Lupin

By Tina Banerjee

SillaJen got FDA nod to expand clinical trial of BAL0891 for acute myeloid leukemia. Akeso received FDA approval for its PD-1 inhibitor penpulimab for the treatment of nasopharyngeal carcinoma.
Innovent Biologics got approval for limertinib in China for the first-line treatment of locally advanced or metastatic non-small cell lung cancer. CSL launches Andembry Pen for Hereditary Angioedema in Japan.
Daiichi Sankyo submitted indication expansion application in Japan for Enhertu for the treatment of HER2 positive advanced or recurrent solid tumors. Lupin received FDA approval for Tolvaptan Tablets.

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Apr 26

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Japan Strategy Weekly | Stocks Strong on Trade Optimism and Weaker Yen and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Japan Strategy Weekly | Stocks Strong on Trade Optimism and Weaker Yen
#141 India Insight: Adani Sells 400 MHz to Artl, ITC Signs 14 Hotels, Saudi-Ind to Build Refineries
Thematic Report: Opportunity for India; US Anti-Dumping Duty on Solar Imports
How Trump’s Tariffs Are Reshaping India’s Shrimp Export Market?
AUCTUS ON FRIDAY – 25/04/2025

Japan Strategy Weekly | Stocks Strong on Trade Optimism and Weaker Yen

The Nikkei 225 surged 2.7% over the week, reclaiming the 35,000 level as easing U.S.-China trade tensions and a softer yen bolstered investor sentiment.
Tokyo core CPI jumped to 3.4% in April 2025 (highest in two years), driven by reduced energy subsidies and April food price increases.
The weaker yen supported export-dependent sectors, such as machinery, auto parts and tech hardware. For individual stocks, it is all about results and capital policies.

#141 India Insight: Adani Sells 400 MHz to Artl, ITC Signs 14 Hotels, Saudi-Ind to Build Refineries

Adani Group has exited the captive telecom space by offloading 400 MHz 5G spectrum to Bharti Airtel; this boosts Airtel’s 5G expansion while signaling Adani’s strategic retreat from telecom.
ITC’s Fortune Hotels signed 14 and launched 7 new hotels this year; this rapid expansion strengthens its mid-market hospitality presence and capitalizes on India’s surging domestic travel demand.
India and Saudi Arabia have agreed to jointly construct two oil refineries, this deepens energy ties and supports India’s fuel security amid rising consumption.

Thematic Report: Opportunity for India; US Anti-Dumping Duty on Solar Imports

The imposition of reciprocal anti-dumping (AD) and countervailing duties (CVD) on solar imports to the United States, particularly targeting four major Asian exporters-Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam-presents an opportunity for India
Though India lacks competitive pricing and optional capacity to meet the demand,
Waaree Energies emerges as a potential winner, considering its facilities in India and the US and a strong order book.

How Trump’s Tariffs Are Reshaping India’s Shrimp Export Market?

The Trump administration imposed a 26% reciprocal tariff on Indian shrimp exports, significantly impacting India’s USD 4 billion shrimp export market, as India supplies 37% of U.S. shrimp imports.
Ecuador, benefiting from a lower tariff rate, gains a competitive edge, making its shrimp exports cheaper compared to India, allowing it to capture more market share in the U.S. market.
Companies like Avanti Feeds (AVNT IN) , Apex Frozen Foods (APEX IN) and Waterbase Ltd (WB IN) may face headwinds in raw shrimp export whereas tailwinds in prepared shrimp Exports.

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY – 25/04/2025

By Auctus Advisors

Panoro Energy (PEN NO)C; Target price of NOK49 per share: Reserves addition much larger than expected – YE24 2P reserves were independently estimated at 42.3 mmbbl (+7.6 mmbbl vs YE23, representing a Reserve Replacement Ration of 309%).
This figure far exceeds our previous expectation of 34.5 mmbbl for YE24 2P reserves – an estimate that included a 4 mmbbl addition in 1H24 to counterbalance 2024 production.
The higher than expected reserves addition is driven by robust reservoir performance in Gabon coupled with the conversion of contingent resources into 2P reserves in EG.

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Apr 25

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Megacap Tech Rallies and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Ohayo Japan | Megacap Tech Rallies
India’s Hotel Boom: How Spiritual Travel and Smart Expansion Are Redefining Hospitality
#139 India Insight: Adani’s $10B AI Push, Flipkart’s Domicile Shift, Tesla To Cut Reliance On China?
[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:JD US/BABA US/PDD US/700 HK/BIDU US/3690 HK/NTES US/BILI US/E-Commerce
RBI Forward-Looking Survey Analysis
Thematic Report: All You Need to Know About Fluorination Industry in India
Japan Morning Connection: Japan Set to Melt up with Smaller Cap SPE and Power/Analog Names in Focus
Insider Buying Trends in Indian Equities (Market Cap > USD 1 Billion) – March 2025
[Blue Lotus Daily]:XPEV US/1810 HK/LI US/NIO US/Macro
#140 India Insight: IMF Trims FY26 Growth to 6.2%, Rapeseed Opportunity, IndusInd Audits MFI Gap

Ohayo Japan | Megacap Tech Rallies

U.S. stocks surged Thursday, driven by Big Tech gains and optimism over tariff negotiations
Canon has revised down net profit to 333 billion yen for FY2025, down 31 billion yen from prior estimates, due to U.S. tariff policies and yen appreciation hitting profits
Nissan Motor forecasts a record consolidated final loss of 750 billion yen for the fiscal year ending March 2025

India’s Hotel Boom: How Spiritual Travel and Smart Expansion Are Redefining Hospitality

By Viral Kishorchandra Shah

The hotel sector has seen robust room additions post-Covid, with a record high of 10,897 rooms projected for 2024-25, driven by domestic travel demand.
Occupancy rates have remained steady at around 64.5%, despite significant room capacity increases, while average room rates rose by 13.5% to Rs.7,608 in 2023-24.
The industry’s asset-light expansion strategy, including franchise and lease agreements, has facilitated rapid room inventory growth, with ongoing new project announcements remaining strong.

#139 India Insight: Adani’s $10B AI Push, Flipkart’s Domicile Shift, Tesla To Cut Reliance On China?

Adani commits $10B to data centers to meet booming AI demand; this bold expansion positions India as a future-ready digital infrastructure hub.
Flipkart Online Services (1398508D IN)’s board approves shifting domicile to India ahead of its IPO and this move can unlock higher valuations and boost local investor participation.
Tesla (TSLA US) starts chip talks with Tata, Micron, and CG Semi to cut reliance on China; this reshapes India’s role in the global EV and semiconductor supply chain.

[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:JD US/BABA US/PDD US/700 HK/BIDU US/3690 HK/NTES US/BILI US/E-Commerce

By Ying Pan

JD US/BABA US/PDD US: Government Regulation Forces Cancellation of “Refund Without Return” Policy (+/+/-)
700 HK: Tencent Games SPARK Conference Reveals R&D Progress for Multiple Titles Including <Honor of Kings: World> (+)
BIDU US:Baidu launches the AI agent app “Xin Xiang,” which is similar to Manus(/)

RBI Forward-Looking Survey Analysis

The RBI’s March 2025 surveys highlight a balanced recovery, with easing inflation expectations, strong rural sentiment, and sector-specific growth prospects across banking, manufacturing, and services.
With moderate credit growth and consumer confidence improving, sectors like agri-finance, retail, and infrastructure are poised for growth, while inflationary pressures and currency depreciation may impact import-dependent companies.
India’s economic recovery is steady, with sector-specific positioning crucial. As rural confidence rises and inflation expectations moderate, growth opportunities are more identifiable, especially in rural finance and manufacturing.

Thematic Report: All You Need to Know About Fluorination Industry in India

Fluorine chemistry is gaining strategic importance across sectors like pharma, agrochemicals, EVs, and semiconductors, driven by the superior thermal, chemical, and biological properties of fluorinated compounds.
India is emerging as a global hub in fluorination, supported by backward-integrated capacities, decades of handling expertise, and the global China+1 diversification strategy.
Companies like SRF Ltd (SRF IN), Gujarat Fluorochemicals (FLUOROCH IN), and Navin Fluorine International (NFIL IN) are scaling up across the value chain from fluoropolymers to battery-grade electrolytes.

Japan Morning Connection: Japan Set to Melt up with Smaller Cap SPE and Power/Analog Names in Focus

Texas Instruments and STM numbers pointing to a bottom for industrial and automotive semi’s.
Memory catching a bid on SK Hynix numbers yesterday, may see signs of live for Kioxia.
Renesas may run after better-than-feared numbers yesterday and a more positive read for the sector overall.

Insider Buying Trends in Indian Equities (Market Cap > USD 1 Billion) – March 2025

By Sreemant Dudhoria

Promoters of multiple large-cap Indian firms made significant insider purchases in March 2025.
Sectors with notable activity include financials, real estate, and specialty chemicals.
Many of these stocks have already rallied post-purchase, with gains reaching up to 30%.

[Blue Lotus Daily]:XPEV US/1810 HK/LI US/NIO US/Macro

By Eric Wen

XPEV US: 2025 X9 Achieves 7,500 Orders in 7 Days Post-Launch (+)
1810 HK: YU7 to Launch as Scheduled in June-July 2025(+)
Macro: Shanghai slightly enhances support measures for catering businesses (/)

#140 India Insight: IMF Trims FY26 Growth to 6.2%, Rapeseed Opportunity, IndusInd Audits MFI Gap

The IMF has trimmed India’s FY26 growth forecast to 6.2% due to global tariff uncertainty, indicating growing external risks for the Indian economy.
India is targeting a Rs. 1,000 crore rapeseed meal export opportunity to China following regulatory clearance, potentially boosting agri-exports and farmer income.
Indusind Bank (IIB IN) has appointed EY for a re-audit after detecting a Rs. 600 crore gap in its microfinance portfolio, raising red flags on governance and risk management.

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Apr 24

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Markets Rally as Trump Tempers Rhetoric and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Ohayo Japan | Markets Rally as Trump Tempers Rhetoric
Singapore Banks – Charge off Rates on Cards Are Rising Substantially Through 4Q24
Thematic Report: Credit Rating Agencies – Boring but Beautiful
China & HK Strategy: 1Q25 Preview – The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly
Japan Morning Connction: Tech Surging with Trump Signalling Zero China Tariffs on a Trade Deal
Hardman & Co Insight: REITs – a much more positive outlook
Powering the Future: India’s Trillion-Rupee Energy Revolution

Ohayo Japan | Markets Rally as Trump Tempers Rhetoric

US stocks surged Wednesday as President Trump signaled he would not fire Fed Chair Powell and suggested Chinese tariffs may be reduced
Nintendo reported overwhelming demand for its Nintendo Switch 2, with 2.2 million lottery applications for the first sale on its official mail order site
FANUC has postponed disclosing its consolidated earnings forecast for the fiscal year ending March 2026 due to significant uncertainties including U.S. tariffs

Singapore Banks – Charge off Rates on Cards Are Rising Substantially Through 4Q24

MAS releases quarterly granular data on Singapore banks’ credit card charge-offs and the figures are rising sharply
It is not easily visible in banks’ own interim results, so that we must use the MAS data as a window on card credit metrics
Credit card charge off rates are now (4Q24) 5.4% vs 4.2% YoY while the total charge-offs are now SGD110.0m in 4Q24 vs SGDm74.7m in 4Q23

Thematic Report: Credit Rating Agencies – Boring but Beautiful

Strong Growth Potential: CRAs are well-positioned to benefit from India’s credit cycle revival, with projected revenue growth of 13-15% CAGR through FY28, supported by rising corporate capex and regulatory demand.
Evolving Business Model: Agencies are diversifying beyond traditional ratings into ESG assessments, risk analytics, and digital platforms, creating new, scalable revenue opportunities.
Improved Credibility and Resilience: Post-IL&FS reforms have enhanced governance and transparency, helping restore trust and reinforce CRAs’ role as critical pillars of India’s financial system.

China & HK Strategy: 1Q25 Preview – The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly

By Osbert Tang, CFA

On average, companies under our coverage are forecast to see a 47.3% YoY growth in net profit in 1Q25. Their results should be a pointer for the outlook in 2025.
Good results are expected at Shanghai Electric Group (2727 HK), Anhui Conch Cement (914 HK), COSCO Shipping Hldgs (1919 HK), Air China Ltd (753 HK), and CNBM (3323 HK).
Shenzhen Expressway (548 HK), Trip.com Group (9961 HK), Xinhua Winshare (811 HK), Cosco Shipping Energy Transp. (1138 HK), and China Longyuan Power (916 HK) will see weaker 1Q25.

Japan Morning Connction: Tech Surging with Trump Signalling Zero China Tariffs on a Trade Deal