Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent signaled a “de-escalation” in trade talks, sparking optimism, although no confirmation from Trump
Bitcoin rose above $90k (+5%) driven by bearish projections in the IMF’s April report, which cut the U.S. growth forecast to 1.8% and raised inflation expectations
Tesla’s Q1 2025 revenue fell 9% to $19 billion, net profit down 71% to $0.4 billion, due to delivery drops, competition, and tariffs.

Will Glowing Gold Spark Another Silver Rally?

By Raghav Vashisht

Silver prices experienced significant volatility in early April due to tariff announcements, but have since recovered by 12%.
A weaker dollar has been a key driver of the recent rally in silver prices. Bullish sentiment is further reinforced by a buildup of call options, especially at out-of-the-money strikes.
The Silver CVOL index shows a decline in call premiums and a softening in implied volatility, indicating a less volatile outlook in the near term.

Japan Morning Connection: Trump Cooling His Heels on Powell Brings Reprise to Markets

Banks higher after Bessent comments show room for a softer stance on tariffs and desire to de-escalate.
US Homebuilders strong after Pultegroup followed up with solid numbers after DHI beat last week.
Market looking through poor Tesla numbers as Musk pledges to pullback on DOGE and refocus.

#136 India Insight: India-US Bilateral Ties, Waaree Secures Local Supply Chain, FDI Magnet Emerges

India and the US are accelerating the first phase of a bilateral trade deal, aiming to resolve key tariff and regulatory issues which could boost market access and ease business.
Waaree Renewable Technologies (WAREERTL IN) has achieved a 90% localized supply chain, shielding it from global disruptions which strengthens its position in India’s solar energy market and ensures long-term operational resilience.
India is becoming a preferred destination for FDI as global companies diversify supply chains in response to US-China trade tensions, with over 20 new FDI inquiries in the past months.

The Aluminium Revolution: Four Major Projects Set to Transform India’s Metal Landscape

By Viral Kishorchandra Shah

Record Rs47.8B investments in 2025-26, marking the highest project completions in a decade, driven by surging demand for aluminium products.
Hindalco Industries (HNDL IN) dominates with Rs37.6B Hirakud project, accounting for 79% of 2025-26 investments, boosting flat-rolled product capacity by 170k tonnes/year.
25 new projects announced in 2024-25, including Vedanta Ltd (VEDL IN) ’s Rs409.9B smelter, signalling robust growth in downstream and recycled aluminium sectors.

Ethanol 30% Blending: Green Energy Gains, Feedstock Shifts, and What’s Ahead for India’s Ethanol

By Nimish Maheshwari

India’s ethanol blending policy is a long-term growth driver, supporting energy security and reducing oil imports, backed by strong government initiatives and infrastructure development.
Significant investment in ethanol production infrastructure and feedstock diversification will be crucial to meeting the 30% blending target by 2030, creating a sustainable and scalable ethanol market.
The focus on second-generation biofuels, flex-fuel vehicles, and sustainable feedstocks will position India as a global leader in ethanol use, driving economic and environmental benefits.

[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:BABA US/PDD US/700 HK/JD US/3690 HK/TCOM US/

By Ying Pan

BABA US/PDD US: DHgate’s GMV Doubles in a Single Week, While Buyer Count Surges 200% (///)
700 HK : Tencent Officially Unveils <VALORANT Mobile>, Launches Pre-Registration（+）
JD US/3690 HK: JD escalates PR battle, food delivery losses may exceed expectations(-//)

[Blue Lotus Daily]:300750 SZ/1211 HK/ATAT US/NIO US

By Eric Wen

300750 SZ/1211 HK: CATL launched 2nd generation Shenxing LFP battery, surprassing BYD in fast charging (///)
ATAT US : Hotel RevPAR Decline Narrows Marginally (+ /+)
NIO US: ONVO L90 Appears in MIIT’s New Vehicle List(+)

Airbus Hydrogen Delay Broadens the Runway for Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF)

The alcohol-to-jet (AtJ) production pathway for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) has the best potential to be a long-term scalable solution for decarbonizing the aviation industry.
Recent news that Airbus has delayed its hydrogen-powered aircraft initiative by up to a decade (Wall Street Journal) provides evidence that at least one leading alternative to SAF is losing ground.
Airbus has not changed its commitment to producing all aircraft capable of flying with up to 100% SAF by 2030.

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Apr 22

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Trump’s Fed Attacks Trigger Market Sell-Off and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Ohayo Japan | Trump’s Fed Attacks Trigger Market Sell-Off
US Banks – Loans to Other FI’s and Cash, Are Driving Most All Growth, Neither Is Positive
Japan Morning Connection: US Markets Pushing Back on Trump-Powell Tensions
Silicon Dreams: Can India Outgrow Its EMS Assembly Tag?
Monday Delight: 21/04/25
Biopharma Week in Review Shrugging Off Constant Bad News; LLY Winning Obesity Drug Race

Ohayo Japan | Trump’s Fed Attacks Trigger Market Sell-Off

Stocks fell sharply as Trump criticized Fed Chair Powell, demanding rate cuts and threatening his removal, amid trade tensions, with the Dow dropping 971 points.
ITOCHU to sell 25% stake in CP Pokapang by 2026, expecting 125 billion yen gain, dissolving cross-shareholdings while maintaining strategic alliance and CITIC investment.
BYD, a leading Chinese electric vehicle maker, will launch a mini EV in Japan in 2026, targeting the kei vehicle market, which comprises 40% of new car sales.

US Banks – Loans to Other FI’s and Cash, Are Driving Most All Growth, Neither Is Positive

By Daniel Tabbush

While loan growth continues to accelerate for US banks in weekly HFD, the single most important driver is loans to other financial institutions
Cash growth is also very high and can be a sign of risk aversion, with cash up USD196bn vs loans up USD98bn from end Jan to 9 April
It is unclear which of the institutions contained in the Fed definition of other FI’s, where commercial banks are lending, but it does not feel core

Japan Morning Connection: US Markets Pushing Back on Trump-Powell Tensions

NVDA possibly facing issues with its new chip, which may involve its Microsoft partnership.
Intel’s 18A process is claiming solid performance and interest from likes of Broadcom.
Poor numbers from Hexel should add more downside pressure to JP CF makers.

Silicon Dreams: Can India Outgrow Its EMS Assembly Tag?

By Viral Kishorchandra Shah

India leads in electronics assembly but imports 94% of components. EMS 2.0 seeks to change this dynamic with local manufacturing
Display modules and PCBs offer growth potential with new manufacturing facilities being built nationwide to reduce import dependence
2025’s $2.7B PLI scheme for components aims to attract $7B investment and create 91,600 new jobs across the electronics sector

Monday Delight: 21/04/25

By Contrarian Cashflows

Each week, I’ll share five intriguing investment ideas that recently caught my attention. These ideas are meant to spark your research and help you kickstart the week ahead with fresh insights.
Because these ideas are the result of my first-level idea generation process, they require more in depth research. Therefore, the ideas will often be concise, with occasional references to valuable work from other practitioners that I encourage you to explore.
If you have something fascinating to share that could benefit me and the wider community, don’t hesitate to send it my way—I’d love to hear from you!

Biopharma Week in Review Shrugging Off Constant Bad News; LLY Winning Obesity Drug Race

In a week of bad industry news, biopharma surprisingly held onto its bounce from recent two-year lows.
With pharma tariffs now expected by June and federal health agencies’ prospects looking worse, we may be close to peak negativity, but too much uncertainty remains for any confidence in a bottom.
In obesity, LLY had a win for an oral GLP-1, while PFE lost, affecting NVO, GPCR, VKTX, AMGN, MTSR, ALT, and TERN. VERV gained on CVD data and BMY’s heart drug failed, affecting CYTK and EWTX, while MURA stopped development.

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Apr 21

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Fed Speeches Take Center Stage and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Ohayo Japan | Fed Speeches Take Center Stage
Japan Strategy Weekly | Stocks Rally as Trade Tensions Ease and Hopes Rise for Bilateral Deal
China Property Developers In Distress – Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | Apr 11-17, 2025

Ohayo Japan | Fed Speeches Take Center Stage

The Federal Reserve will feature prominently this week, with speeches from Fed Chair Jerome Powell and other officials amid rising political pressure from President Trump.
The market is set for significant swings as key earnings announcements from major companies expected. FANUC, Nidec, and KEYENCE will announce their fiscal year 2025 results
Nintendo will start accepting reservations for its new Switch 2 game console in the US on the 24th, after postponing from the 9th to assess the impact of tariffs.

Japan Strategy Weekly | Stocks Rally as Trade Tensions Ease and Hopes Rise for Bilateral Deal

The stock market ended on a strong note, with both the Nikkei 225 (+3.4%) and the Topix (+3.7%) indices posting substantial weekly gains amid ongoing U.S.-Japan trade negotiations
Japanese Economy Minister Ryosei Akazawa’s meeting with President Trump on Thursday proved pivotal, with Trump reportedly identifying a deal with Japan as a “top priority.”
Auto stocks posted impressive gains Tuesday after reports that Trump was considering pausing his 25% levies on auto imports, with Mazda (+8%) leading the sector for the week.

China Property Developers In Distress – Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | Apr 11-17, 2025

By Robert Ciemniak

This note is a weekly (select weeks on SK) curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress
We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news (‘local signals’), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market
We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion; we only select and summarise the information. See direct links to the sources

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Apr 20

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Thematic Report: Indian Paper Industry- Low Margin and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Thematic Report: Indian Paper Industry- Low Margin, China Dumping, Capex
Rio Tinto’s Green Aluminium Bet on India: A Strategic Pivot Amid Global Decarbonization
APAC Healthcare Weekly (April 20)- Neuren, Chugai, Eisai, Telix, Biocon, Aurobindo Pharma

Thematic Report: Indian Paper Industry- Low Margin, China Dumping, Capex

By Nimish Maheshwari

The paper industry is poised for gradual recovery by FY26, driven by strategic product diversification, integration, and acquisitions, with high-margin segments like tissue and packaging leading the way.
Despite cautious capex, companies focusing on inorganic growth and regional access via acquisitions, like ITC’s Century Pulp deal, will enhance market positioning.
As plantations mature, and anti-dumping measures take effect, the industry could stabilize by FY26, with integrated players gaining faster margin recovery.

Rio Tinto’s Green Aluminium Bet on India: A Strategic Pivot Amid Global Decarbonization

By Rahul Jain

Rio’s Entry: Rio Tinto plans a $5–7B green aluminium project in India with AMG M&M, targeting 1 Mtpa smelting and 2 Mtpa refining powered by renewables.
Why India: Aluminium demand is rising; India offers bauxite, coal, caustic, and strong domestic growth—ideal for scaling low-carbon aluminium production.
Risks & Signals: Land issues remain a risk, but ArcelorMittal’s success shows improved project viability; Rio bets on aluminium’s green future and circular economy edge.

APAC Healthcare Weekly (April 20)- Neuren, Chugai, Eisai, Telix, Biocon, Aurobindo Pharma

By Tina Banerjee

FDA has confirmed the primary endpoints for Neuren Pharmaceuticals’ planned Phase 3 pivotal clinical trial of NNZ-2591 in Phelan-McDermid syndrome. Eisai has ultimately received its long-waited European approval for Leqembi.
Chugai Pharmaceutical’s outlicensed oral GLP-1 drug candidate orforglipron has shown positive topline Phase 3 results. Telix announced preliminary results from the Phase 2 study of TLX101 in recurrent high-grade glioma.
Biocon secured market entry date for Yesafili, an interchangeable biosimilar to Eylea in the U.S. FDA has issued Form 483 with 11 observations for Aurobindo Pharma’s North Carolina inhaler plant.

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Apr 18

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): #134 India Insight: Tata Sons Taps TCS Div and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

#134 India Insight: Tata Sons Taps TCS Div, Delhivery’s ₹5k Cr Ecom Bet, Adani’s Assam Push
Japan Morning Connection: TSMC Fails to Hold Early Gains While Semi-Cap Plays Also Sag
AUCTUS ON FRIDAY – 18/04/2025

#134 India Insight: Tata Sons Taps TCS Div, Delhivery’s ₹5k Cr Ecom Bet, Adani’s Assam Push

Tata Sons will reinvest Rs. 43,900 crore received from TCS dividends into new-age businesses, this strategic capital shift aims to fuel long-term growth across tech, digital, and clean energy sectors.
Delhivery is acquiring Ecom Express for Rs. 5,000 crore to expand scale and reduce operating costs in order to strengthen its logistics footprint and improves profitability with low integration risk.
Adani Group has proposed Rs. 50,000 crore investments in Assam after talks with CM Sarma. The plan promises major infrastructure upgrades and job creation across the Northeast.

Japan Morning Connection: TSMC Fails to Hold Early Gains While Semi-Cap Plays Also Sag

Disco guidance possibly showing front loading ahead of a potentially far bleaker 2Q.
US homebuilders strong after DR Horton reported strong GPM despite cutting guidance.
Trump re-raising the possibility of fees for Chinese vessels at US ports may be positive for non-Chinese ship builders.

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY – 18/04/2025

By Auctus Advisors

Panoro Energy (PEN NO) C ; Target price of NOK47 per share: High production in Gabon – BW Energy reported gross production in Gabon of 39.3 mbbl/d.
This equates to 6.9 mbbl/d net to Panoro’s 17.5% WI.
Galp Energia (GALP LI): 1Q25 update – 1Q25 production in Brazil was 104 mboe/d.

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Apr 17

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Gold Stocks in Trump’s New International Order and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Gold Stocks in Trump’s New International Order
#135 India Insights: Boeing Blocked by China, India-US Trade Pact Phase 1, IHCL’s 120% Rev Upside?
Zinc’s Cycle Turns: Will Supply Outpace Demand?
Japan Morning Connection: Trump Lauding ‘great Progress’ with Japan Trade Talks.
Chartered Insights: Understanding India’s Current Valuation Amidst Market Correction
US Tariff Impact on APAC Healthcare: Focus Country- INDIA

Gold Stocks in Trump’s New International Order

By Mark Jolley

Rising inflation historically benefits gold, offering superior real returns compared to stocks and bonds.
Accounting quality is crucial when selecting gold miners, emphasizing transparency to mitigate manipulation risk.
Investors can use Transparently Risk Engine to screen for gold miners with solid accounting quality.

#135 India Insights: Boeing Blocked by China, India-US Trade Pact Phase 1, IHCL’s 120% Rev Upside?

China has suspended Boeing jet deliveries in retaliation to US tariffs, escalating the trade war and dealing a major blow to Boeing’s global business.
India and the US have signed terms for the first phase of a trade pact, setting the stage for $500 billion in trade and deeper economic collaboration.
Indian Hotels (IH IN) has expanded its portfolio to 380 hotels in FY25 with national growth, reinforcing its leadership and targeting 120% upside of Rs. 15,000 crore rev by 2030.

Zinc’s Cycle Turns: Will Supply Outpace Demand?

By Rahul Jain

Zinc market tone for 2025 is cautious, with most producers guiding flat to lower volumes as concentrate supply remains tight and benchmark TCs hit 50-year lows.
Glencore, Teck, and South32 are dialing back output, while Korea Zinc is facing margin compression. Boliden is raising output via acquisitions and restarts, but still faces integration and cost risks.
Hindustan Zinc stands apart—delivering growth, industry-best 53% EBITDA margins, and sub-$1,000/t cost targets, making it a margin fortress in a soft market.

Japan Morning Connection: Trump Lauding ‘great Progress’ with Japan Trade Talks.

Tech and AI sell off sparked by further chip restrictions to China and poor print from ASML.
Details of trade talks are set to have big implications for autos, energy, defense and agriculture.
US officials order the suspension of Biden era wind project already under constriction, adding more pressure to renewables.

Chartered Insights: Understanding India’s Current Valuation Amidst Market Correction

India’s P/E ratio corrected approx 16%, due to which forward PE has come down from 23.8 to 19.7, hitting a below average 1 yr forward PE.
India’s earnings CAGR of 14.3% (CY24–26E) remains among the world’s highest, justifying premium valuations i.e. highest in the world.
India now offers better risk-reward, with strong fundamentals, lower valuation multiples, and a tailwind from recovering consumption and sectoral revival in Q4.

US Tariff Impact on APAC Healthcare: Focus Country- INDIA

By Tina Banerjee

The U.S. has started collecting baseline tariff of 10% from April 5. Reciprocal tariff has been temporarily halted but Indian Pharma companies remain vulnerable to possible tariff threat.
During 9MFY25, the U.S. has been the top exporting destination for Indian pharmaceutical products, with 33% share in the exports.
With negotiations on, India might opt for “zero for zero” tariff approach specifically in the case of Pharmaceutical and Medical devices.

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Apr 16

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Japan Morning Connection: Tech and AI Set to Drop on New NVDA Export Curbs and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Japan Morning Connection: Tech and AI Set to Drop on New NVDA Export Curbs
Furniture/Furnishings Weekly Recession Fears, Higher Rates, Tariffs…
A Defensive Portfolio Prepared For The Wealth Effect’s Reversal
Biopharma Week in Review : Pharma Tariffs Overhang; Worrying Vaccine Comments from RFK Jr.
Sustainable Investing Surveyor Focus on Blue Biofuels (BIOF): Breaks Ground in Florida

Japan Morning Connection: Tech and AI Set to Drop on New NVDA Export Curbs

Widespread weakness in tech/AI related plays after US curbs H20 exports setting a dour tone for JP SPE.
The US looking to suspend the SLR rule for Treasuries could see yields drop as banks do the work of the Fed.
HF’s zeroed in Suzuki secondary sparks squeeze and biggest volumes of the year.

Furniture/Furnishings Weekly Recession Fears, Higher Rates, Tariffs…

Policy/tariff volatility, stock and bond market volatility, falling consumer and business confidence, stagflation fears, higher interest rates, tariffs, inflation concerns, and worries that the US may already be in a recession have dominated the headlines over the past week.
The WTR Commercial/Contract Furniture Index was up 0.4%, the Residential Manufacturers & Suppliers Index was up 2.9%, and the Home Goods Retailers Index was up 1.5% as the broader markets rebounded as well, with the S&P 500 and Dow 30 gaining 5.9% and the R2K up 2.6%
The Atlanta Fed suggests that the US may be in recession already (Figure 1), at least according to its GDPNow model, which aims to provide something closer to a real-time read on the state of the economy (1).

A Defensive Portfolio Prepared For The Wealth Effect’s Reversal

By Finimize Research

The US economy’s resilience hasn’t come from the many – it’s come from the top 10% as the “wealth effect” from rising asset prices has boosted spending.
But it works in reverse too. Since the richest make up nearly half of America’s consumer spending, that could lead to a serious economic fallout.
It’s worth considering protecting your portfolio. I’ve pulled together one list of companies that should do well and another that could suffer from the change in climate.

Biopharma Week in Review : Pharma Tariffs Overhang; Worrying Vaccine Comments from RFK Jr.

Biopharma lagged as Trump’s pending pharma tariffs loom.
The 90-day pause in reciprocal tariffs was a short-lived reprieve for biopharma, as Trump later clarified pharma tariffs were not part of the pause.
After a second unvaccinated child died from measles (three deaths total), RFK Jr. endorsed the vaccine as the most effective way of prevention.

Sustainable Investing Surveyor Focus on Blue Biofuels (BIOF): Breaks Ground in Florida

The WTR Sustainable Index was up 3.4% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (up 5.7%), the Russell 2000 Index (up 1.8%) and the Nasdaq Index (up 7.4%).
Energy Technology (12.6% of the index) was up 1.6%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (45.7% of the index) was up 5.0%, ClimateTech Mining was up 1.1%, and Advanced Transportation Solutions (21.5% of the index) was up 3.3%.
Top 10 Performers: ALTA, FGPHF, AVL, VGAS, VIHD, LNZA, FHYD, OPTT, GWTI, LIDR

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Apr 15

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Potential Relief from Auto Tariffs and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Ohayo Japan | Potential Relief from Auto Tariffs
Japan Morning Connection: 2-Days of Gains for the US Markets, but New Curbs Loom
Monday Delight: 14/04/25

Ohayo Japan | Potential Relief from Auto Tariffs

Stocks closed higher Monday in a volatile session as tech led gains following a surprise tariff exemption from President Trump
Automakers gained on Monday after President Trump signaled potential relief from the 25% auto tariffs, citing the need for time to shift production to the U.S.
Sony will raise the price of the PlayStation 5 console in Europe and Australia due to increased material prices, manufacturing costs, and exchange rate fluctuations.

Japan Morning Connection: 2-Days of Gains for the US Markets, but New Curbs Loom

Tech faded over the day on the potential for further tariffs.
Suzuki Motor’s secondary deal was priced 5% below the last.
Onsemi pulls the plug on its plans for ALGM, expect weakness for Sanken.

Monday Delight: 14/04/25

By Contrarian Cashflows

Each week, I’ll share five intriguing investment ideas that recently caught my attention. These ideas are meant to spark your research and help you kickstart the week ahead with fresh insights.
Because these ideas are the result of my first-level idea generation process, they require more in depth research. Therefore, the ideas will often be concise, with occasional references to valuable work from other practitioners that I encourage you to explore.
If you have something fascinating to share that could benefit me and the wider community, don’t hesitate to send it my way—I’d love to hear from you!

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Apr 14

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Will Japan’s Trade-War Gamble Pay Off? and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Will Japan’s Trade-War Gamble Pay Off?
China & HK Strategy: Tariff Exemption Beneficiaries
Ohayo Japan | Tech Wins Big as US Scraps Tariffs on Electronics
Japan Morning Connection: US Higher Friday, but Trump Changing Tone over Electronics May Sour Mood

Will Japan’s Trade-War Gamble Pay Off?

By Michael Allen

Japan is sending a delegation of top trade negotiators to the U.S, but both sides are making the same mistakes that led to WWII.
I asked Grok to use game theory to map out the most likely scenarios for how Japanese and U.S. governments might avoid the worst-case scenario.
According to Grok, both sides have a strong motivation to delay any agreement no matter what the other side offers.

China & HK Strategy: Tariff Exemption Beneficiaries

By Osbert Tang, CFA

Lenovo (992 HK), AAC Technologies Holdings (2018 HK), BYD Electronics (285 HK), and Tcl Multimedia Technology (1070 HK) are the prime beneficiaries of Trump’s tariff exemption.
On average, they have 24.5% of revenue from the US market, and their share price has collapsed 19.8% MTD. They are well set to have a decent rebound.
There will be speculations that more exemptions in other sectors will be granted, and the big losers will see a relief rally.

Ohayo Japan | Tech Wins Big as US Scraps Tariffs on Electronics

Despite the turbulence caused by Trump’s evolving tariff policies, the S&P 500 and Dow recorded their best weeks since 2023
Apple and other tech firms benefit as Trump’s administration exempts smartphones, computers, and components like semiconductors from a 125% China tariff and a 10% global tariff
Orbis Investments, holding 10% of Tsuruha, opposes its merger with Welcia Holdings, Japan’s top drugstore under Aeon

Japan Morning Connection: US Higher Friday, but Trump Changing Tone over Electronics May Sour Mood