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• The sharp rebound of Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMD) over the recent months came to a sudden halt after market participants were once again surprised by the deteriorating outlook for the company.
• Prompted by the bear market rally in equities, AMD’s stock has almost doubled in a matter of just a couple of months from October of last year to March 2023.
• While everyone was cheering the new wave of AI-driven demand, the quarterly report from earlier this week is a warning that should not be ignored.

• Q1’23 revenues of NT$95.7 billion, down 11.6% sequentially and 33% year-over-year.
• Q2’23 revenues sequentially flat at the midpoint. Longer replacement cycles and growing refurbishment market will see 2023 unit shipments decline a further ~10% YoY.
• Strength in Smart Edge products (TV, Tablet, Telco, Automotive) continues to offset weakness in smartphones

CLIQ Digital had a very strong start to FY23, with a 58% y-o-y revenue uplift in Q123 (to €83m) and an EBITDA margin of 15.4% (Q122: 15.8%). Raised levels of marketing spend continue to drive momentum, generating growth in both the lifetime value of the customer base (LTVCB) and in the number of paid members. CLIQ is inherently highly cash generative and net cash was €10.9m at the quarter-end. Management has reiterated both FY23 and mid-term 2025 sales guidance, and our forecasts are unchanged, underpinned by the strong Q123 performance. CLIQ’s valuation remains at a significant discount to peers on EV/sales and EV/EBITDA multiples, with substantial potential upside to the current share price on current estimates, in our view.

• Bukalapak (BUKA IJ) announced 1Q2023 results with encouragingly strong headline growth coupled with even stronger revenues as take rates increased, with its marketplace being the standout driven by specialty verticals. 
• Mitra Bukalapak also registered solid growth, with increasing active Mitra’s with greater frequency, higher take rates, and an improvement in contribution margin which should turn positive over the next 2Qs. 
• Take rates should continue to improve as the specialty businesses pick up momentum, and once the Mitra business turns CM positive, growth in that segment will also accelerate.

• Reliance on ecommerce has intensified within the past few years, but the pandemic, geopolitical tensions and government restrictions have disrupted the global supply chain.

• Over the course of a decade, companies are expected to see losses equal to nearly half of what they make in a year.

• US- and India-based Pando is looking to solve this issue and has raised funding to help it do so.

• Another British company taken over by private equity. On 25 April, Providence sweetened its offer to 121p/share, a 12% increase (22.1x trailing EBITDA; 13.1 EV/Fwd NTM EBITDA).
• On 3 May, all of the resolutions were passed at both Court Meeting and General Meeting. The Scheme Court Hearing is scheduled for 18 May. Settlement should happen on/before 2 June.
• Although there isn’t enough liquidity for large tickets, at 120.4p the spread is 0.5%/6.6% (gross/annualised).

• We expect Hua Hong to report C1Q23 top-line, IFRS operating income, and IFRS net income in-line, 14.1% and 19.1% vs. consensus, respectively. 
• Our sample of 1Q23 A-share fabless balance sheets showed that inventory days rose, which we expect will lead to a slowdown in wafer orders beginning in 2Q23.
• Despite near-term weakness, we are positive the longer-term benefits of (1) localization, and (2) EV demand. We maintain BUY and raise TP to HKD35.

• Singapore-based AI company Advance Intelligence Group today announced it has raised US$80 million from an investor consortium
• The fundraising follows its previous Series D funding round of over US$400 million in 2021.
• In total, the company has raised over US$700 million and has secured capital in excess of US$1 billion supporting its credit book.

Vection Technologies’ Q323 activities report confirms that contract growth continued to accelerate in H223, with the company reporting 100% total contract value (TCV) growth from the end of January to 28 April. The momentum in TCV growth indicates that management is well-positioned to deliver the triple-digit half-on-half top-line growth required to reach its FY23 expectations. Cash receipts on a quarterly and nine-month basis increased year-on-year. Vection Technologies’ balance sheet is set to be sustained by a further A$3.5m in Q423 from an R&D tax receipt and outstanding invoices, supporting the company’s M&A pipeline.

• The review period for the September rebalance ends on 31 July, the changes will be announced towards end August and implemented at the close of trading on 7 September.
• There are potential changes to some of the indices and then there are close changes that will result in big flows if they eventuate.
• The March rebalance saw some funky moves on the stocks that had big flows and we could see more of that at the September rebalance.

• Tata Technologies (TATATECH IN), the largest India-based ER&D service provider, is seeking to raise up to US$600 million, according to press reports.
• Tata Technologies ranked first among India service providers and third globally among rated service providers for automotive ER&D services, according to Zinnov.
• The key elements of the bull case rest on its automotive leadership positioning, solid performance of the core business, high repeat rates, rising margin and cash generation. 

• Q1’23 revenues of $5.4 billion, down 3.5% QoQ, down 9% YoY, but marginally ahead of the guided midpoint.
• AMD’s outlook for the current quarter is for revenues of $5.3 billion at the midpoint, basically flat sequentially:
• Data center revenues will grow 50% sequentially in H2’23 compared to H1’23

• Meituan has recently implemented three strategies to compete with Douyin: a low-price strategy, the addition of more video/live streaming content, and a management reorganization.
• The low-price strategy has already shown some promising results, as seen in the slowdown of Douyin’s local service GTV and the number of new merchants joining its platform.
• However, the effectiveness of the other two strategies, particularly Meituan’s push to add more video content, remains unclear.

• Urbanization and brand premiumization are Focus Media’s two long term structural drivers which will keep broadening its audience and advertiser base.
• 1Q23 results end a 5-quarter streak of profit decline and  mark the start of new profit cycle. This will usher in a meaningful stock re-rating if history is a guide.  
• We expect at least 30% upside by the end of 2023 by applying 25x P/E (still at large discount to last profit cycle) on RMB4.9 billion net profit for 2023. 

• Pureprofile Ltd (ASX:PPL) is a data analytics and consumer insights business underpinned by proprietary technology, servicing business decision makers in brands and media companies as well as market researchers.
• The company has an established position delivering insights to clients across 89 countries and has captured through its panel fully declared, deep consumer profiles, first-party data and insights.
• Pureprofile has delivered a 22% increase in quarterly revenue to $10.3m from its core Data & Insights and SaaS platform businesses. Normalised EBITDA from these businesses increased 121% to $1.0m for the quarter. 

• The Company has solid mid-single-digit top-line growth and has one of the healthiest balance sheets in the sector.
• Telekom Austria announced plans to spin off and list its towers business. We believe this be a positive catalyst to unlock some of the Company’s hidden value.
• Feedback from discussion with the IR included in this investment case

• In my previous insight in Mid-March 2023, we had a look at the potential index changes and the resultant capping flows for the HSTECH Index in June 2023.
• Since then, our flow expectations have changed with changes in prices and/or float and total share counts.
• Here are our latest flow expectations based on the current prices.

• Another major earnings week with AMD, Qualcomm, Apple, Acer, Winbond, Wistron, Micro-Star, and more.
• Hon Hai could terminate its investment deal in U.S.-based Lordstown Motors as per an exchange notice posted by Lordstown.
• AMD reportedly transfers some 4nm chip business to Samsung from TSMC.

• AT&T delivered mixed results in the quarter with below-par revenues but profitability above expectations.
• As a result, wireless service revenues and EBITDA may increase, and margins may improve.
• Despite a slowdown in industry growth, their Business Solutions wireless service revenues increased by almost 7%.

• SAP delivered a highly disappointing set of results failing to meet the revenue expectations as well as the earnings expectations of Wall Street.
• The current cloud backlog and cloud revenue for S/4HANA increased by 79% which is why Q1 revenue increased by 9% overall.
• Their SaaS and PaaS portfolios continued to expand by 25%, with SaaS cloud revenue increasing by 22% and PaaS cloud revenue increasing by 45%.

• F5 managed an all-around beat in its second quarter results despite ongoing macro-uncertainty.
• Global Services revenue increased by 8% to $363 million, owing to high maintenance renewals and the effects of the price increase implemented in Q4 of last year.
• Product sales increased 14% year on year, reflecting strong system shipments compared to a more difficult comparison in the previous quarter.

1Spatial’s full year results confirm the solid progress made over the course of the year with revenue growing 11%, recurring revenues growing 21% and EBITDA margins expanding from 15.5% to 16.7%. With momentum continuing into this year, and a healthy order book and pipeline, the company looks well set for 2024. Progress in its key strategic growth pillars – traffic management, US expansion and smart partnerships – looks promising and could accelerate scalable high-margin recurring revenue growth. Investment in key sales hires suppresses our profitability estimates for FY24, but we expect this to start delivering returns in the form of faster growth and margin expansion from FY25.

• Gaia reported 1Q23 revenue of $19.6 million versus $21.8 million in 1Q22, in line with expectations, but more importantly, this was the first quarterly sequential improvement in a year, which was also accompanied by the first member count growth in a year (+7,500 members).
• Sequential revenue growth, member count growth, and improved retention all indicate a fundamental turn in Gaia’s business.
• The company seems to have completed the cycle-through of its “COVID cohort bulge” and is now left with higher lifetime value members, providing a solid base for forward growth.

• We expect SMIC to report C1Q23 top-line, IFRS operating income, and non-IFRS net income (2.6%), (31%), and (29%) vs. consensus, respectively.
• Our sample of 1Q23 earnings for A-listed fabless firms found that (1) inventory days grew 18% QoQ to 191 days, and (2) revenues declined 9% QoQ. 
• Despite potential earnings miss, SMIC’s BUY case is strengthened positive externalities. We maintain BUY and raise TP to HK$24.

• SHEN reported first quarter results benefiting from non-recurring termination revenue and tax refunds. SHEN’s revenue and profitability were aided in the quarter with $1.7 million in termination fee
• Net income benefited from a one-time refund on sales tax and interest earned on tax refunds more than offsetting SHEN’s interest expense
• SHEN ended the first quarter with 28,793 Glo Fiber subscribers, up 4,507 from the fourth quarter 2022

• We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations covered by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
• Highest spreads – 111 Inc (YI US), Estia Health (EHE AU), United Malt Group Ltd (UMG AU), Aag Energy Holdings (2686 HK), HKBN Ltd (1310 HK), Origin Energy (ORG AU).
• Lowest spreads – Healius (HLS AU), Liontown Resources (LTR AU), Lian Beng (LBG SP), Mincor Resources NL (MCR AU), Pushpay Holdings (PPH NZ), Blackmores Ltd (BKL AU).

• GoTo (GOTO IJ) 1Q2023 were impressive given the group is now contribution margin positive for all its divisions plus making good headway towards positive Adjusted EBITDA by 4Q2023. 
• This came at a cost with substantial QoQ declines in GTV for both ODS and e-commerce but better take rates offset this decline. Further significant declines may raise concerns.
• GoTo Logistics and GoPay’s lending business are key foundational focus areas to underpin a lower cost to serve and higher future growth. Valuations remain reasonable relative to peers. 

• Mediatek results showed it may be in one of the stronger positions through this cycle, part of the stronger group of company’s in what appears a ‘two-track’ semi industry recovery.
• The company reported notable strength in TV end-demand relative to the rest of the consumer electronics space.
• The company implied 2Q23E could be the company’s cycle bottom.

• Shekel Brainweigh Limited (ASX:SBW) reported FY22 sales growth of 14% to US$26.3m, which included 117% growth in Retail Innovation sales to $US2.0m.
• Revenue growth has continued into Q1 FY23 with 13% underlying growth, driven by 32% growth in the Self-Checkout division.
• We estimate an adjusted FY22 EBITDA loss (before amortisation, one-off costs and share-based payments) of US$3.3m, in-line with CY21 and impacted by a ~530bps decline in gross margin, predominantly in H2 FY22.

• Both Delta Electronics Thailand and its parent Delta Electronics Taiwan reported results; both reports came in below analyst expectations.
• Delta Thailand shares have dropped 19% since our recent update. The company also did a 10 for 1 share split in an apparent bid to make the shares look ‘cheaper’.
• Delta’s EV business grew 100% YoY and is becoming a significant driver for the company. The pricing mis-alignment between Delta Thailand and Taiwan has corrected substantially.

• Friday marked the end of the review cutoff for the MSCI, CSI300, CSI500, STAR50, SSE50, ChiNext and a bunch of other indices for the upcoming rebalances in May and June.
• There are no major index events coming up this week as a lot of markets are shut on different days.
• There were big inflows to mainland China ETFs during the week, while there was a big redemption from the iShares MSCI ACWI ETF (ACWI US). 

• Key insiders at Seoul City Gas (017390 KS) and Daou Data Corp (032190 KS) sold their shares before the recent crash.
• On 28 April, it was reported that Kim Young-Min (Seoul City Gas Chairman) sold 2% of Seoul City Gas on 20 April, resulting in net sales of 45.7 billion won.
• These Korean companies are two of the eight stocks related to the CFD derivatives sell-down that have been crashing in the past week. 

• It is relatively low-hanging fruit to “further propel the renmimbi’s internationalisation” and for HKEX, it will “cement HK’s position as the premier offshore renmimbi financing center.”
• The Conundrum: the more active investors decide they like Fast Retailing (9983 JP), the more there is to sell. That creates interesting opportunities.
• Short Yuexiu Property (123 HK) now, or soon. The dynamics of this is that there WILL be selling when the rights come out. 

• ASE’s results commentary for its semiconductor packaging and testing service said that inventory problems for the industry are taking longer than expected to improve.
• The weaker than expected environment was only realized towards the end of 1Q23. The company’s utilization is near an all-time low which is expected to persist through 2Q23E.
• Automotive remains a bright spot for the company, with Auto-linked revenue rising 30% YoY.

• In spite of the operating and economic climate difficulties, Chewy managed to deliver an all-around beat, surpassing the revenue, profitability, and free cash flow expectations of Wall Street.
• Their net sales climbed 13% to $10 billion during the fourth quarter, representing an annual growth rate of roughly 14%.
• Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

• Lumen Technologies has its results just around the corner.
• The company gave a solid result in the last quarter and managed an all-around beat which can also be expected this time.
• Lumen Technologies recently announced the company’s major network expansion plan for deriving an additional 6 million intercity fiber miles to its existing expansive network by 2026.

• SK Hynix and Samsung reported results in the last week, showing major losses for their memory businesses. More evidence of a ‘two-track recovery’ for different parts of the chip industry.
• SK Hynix’s inventory situation worsened based on our analysis; Micron appears to be managing inventory moderately better than peers based on recent results.
• Long Micron vs. Short Nanya Technology: Micron has continued to outperform Nanya Tech, as well as SK Hynix and Samsung.

• Tencent will report 1Q2023E earnings on 17th May. Online gaming revenues have declined YoY for 4-consecutive quarters while social networks revenue has been down for the last two quarters.
• Our app data analysis suggests that grossing ranks of some of Tencent’s key domestic titles have dropped during 1Q2023 while international titles show an improvement during the quarter.
• Our regression model suggests that Tencent’s internet value-added services biz’s revenues would grow at lower single digits in 1Q2023E and is still playing catch up with its own self.

• Deutsche Börse will offer for DKK 735/share for financial software developer SimCorp, 38.9% premium, 6.5x EV/Fwd Sales (in line with other transactions), and 30.3x EV/Fwd EBIT. 
• DB offers a full price to grow in data&analytics: my EV/EBIT-based standalone fair value is DKK 629/share, plus (all) synergies taxed and capitalised of DKK 87/share results in DKK 716/share.
• That figure is still below the offer price, and although gross spread is 0.48%, I’d be long in case of a possible bid by private equity.

• ATNI started its first quarter earnings call with a tease that is likely to receive investor praise once officially announced. ATNI is finalizing a carrier service agreement 
• ATNI already has a carrier service agreement with AT&T (T) where ATNI has been building wireless towers for FirstNet
• During the first quarter ATNI added more broadband and mobile customers within each of its business segments.

• Fujitsu earnings are out. Forecasts are in, lighter than consensus. 
• But there is a buyback. Looking at the way last year’s was executed is not that informative but it may be useful. 
• This one is big enough to matter but not big enough to get excited about until we get confirmation. 

• Recent research conducted by industry players – most notably OpenAI – about the impact of generative AI on labor markets provides a framework for gauging its monetization potential.
• We take a small step forward to apply them to two specific occupations in China including translators and computer programmers, which combined represent RMB1,400 bn TAM.
• For China’s internet giants such as Alibaba, generative AI could result in cost savings of up to RMB20 bn, or 14% of its FY2023 net profit.

• At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.
• Since peaking in January 2023, Tencent Holdings Ltd (700 HK) has produced a meaningful ABC correction that is yet to confirm its completion.
• We anticipate the correction confirming a MT bottom in the 302/330 range, ahead of a renewed multi-month uptrend. Our bullish multi-month target at 451.95 remains firm. 

• GoTo (GOTO IJ) reported 1Q2023 results yesterday. Gross revenue increased 14.3% YoY to IDR5.98trn while adjusted EBITDA losses further declined to IDR3.52trn from IDR5.94trn in 1Q2022.
• However, all growth matrices point towards a slowdown compared to the previous quarter with gross revenues of all segments and On-demand take rate declining QoQ in 1Q2023.
• With GoTo prioritising profits over growth, we expect the company’s growth rates to further decline and wonder if the company could hold it for long?

• Most Web3 brands rely on Web2 apps such as Google Forms, Telegram, and Discord for customer support.
• This makes customer relationship management (CRM) difficult due to rampant customer service fraud and the inability to identify end users across channels.
• Based in Taiwan, MetaCRM says its Web3 CRM products can connect on-chain and off-chain data to create blockchain-native solutions and analytics tools.

• Founded in 2022, Unity Software Shanghai Co. (Unity 3D/Unity China) is a Chinese company that provides a 3D development platform, and AR/VR solutions to the gaming industry.
• The company is a subsidiary of Unity Software (U US) and focuses on localisation Unity’s products and services to the Chinese market.
• The company was valued at around US$1bn at the time of its formation and based on deal terms, might go for a listing when its valuation hits US$3.6bn.

• Singapore-based Cosmose AI said it has received an undisclosed sum from nonprofit Near Foundation to build a payment system that allows users to shop with cryptocurrency at low transaction fees.
• The deal bumped Cosmose AI’s valuation to US$500 million from US$100 million at the time of its series A round.
• Using smartphone data, Cosmose AI analyzes foot traffic and engages consumers online, providing insights into offline shopping habits and driving footfall across 20 million venues in Asia.

• NTGR reported first quarter results asserting sell through was healthy but channel partners were not replenishing their inventory
• Heading into the results, we had cited the lack of deep discounts in the quarter as a sign that inventory had stabilized. 
• NTGR is entering the second quarter with no expectation of channel partners coming back with increased order flow

CentralNic’s Q123 trading update confirms management is delivering on its strategy of robust organic growth, coupled with strong cash generation, which has improved shareholder returns and further deleveraged its balance sheet. The group is confident that it is trading at least in line with current market consensus for FY23 and we maintain our forecasts, which are slightly ahead of consensus. CentralNic’s latest agreement with Microsoft Bing in Online Marketing lowers the group’s execution risk by diversifying its advertiser demand pool and adds to its growth potential.

Nano Dimension’s FY22 results show that its ‘buy-and-build’ strategy has delivered a quadrupling of revenues during the year. The pace of revenue growth may potentially accelerate following Nano Dimension’s recent bid for 3D printing giant Stratasys.

• Last night the CMA chose to block the merger between Microsoft and Activision Blizzard in the UK on the grounds that it would harm competition in cloud gaming. 
• The merits of that position are highly debatable in our view but that does not mean that the decision is bad for consumers. 
• It also does not mean that the decision is bad for Microsoft in our view.

• With 2 trading days left in the review period, we see 7 potential adds/5 potential deletes in June. However, there can be a maximum of 5 changes at a rebalance.
• We estimate one-way turnover of 5.58% at the June rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 4.22bn. Index arb balances could increase the impact on the stocks.
• The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes over the last couple of months and have underperformed over the last week.

• The highly-anticipated Defence Strategic Review, released on the 24 April, clarifies the five key missions for the Australian Defence Force: maritime, land, air, space, and cyber.
• One takeaway recommended Defence balance the need for local content against its timely acquisition, suggesting increased off-the-shelf acquisitions. This may favour overseas contractors in place of the domestic industry.
• Codan (CDA AU), whose metal detectors and communications technology are used by the military, is one SME whose procurement speed may be scrutinised. 

• We have already questioned SoftBank’s private company valuation marks; a Schroders trust recently announced a 46% valuation cut in its Revolut investment, acquired at the July 2021 funding round
• SVF2 acquired 5% of Revolut, also in July 2021; third party valuation providers indicate that the Revolut USD valuation has fallen by at least 50% in 2022
• July 2021 was Revolut’s most recent funding round, implying that Softbank may yet need to mark down its valuation; this could also apply to the funds’ other private companies

• We expect ACMR to report C1Q23 top-line and IFRS net income 2.8% and 83% vs. consensus, respectively. 
• We expect it to raise FY the mid-point of its guidance to US$560mn~, due to YMTC orders and 4Q23 order visibility; 
• We are buyers into earnings but avoid long-positions between reporting dates due to geopolitical risk exposure.

• AppLovin Corporation had a disappointing quarter as it delivered significantly wider-than-expected losses and a negative bottom-line even though its revenues were above Wall Street expectations.
• Its results in the quarter included the performance of the software platform, which increased 24% year over year.
• For the first quarter of the upcoming year, they anticipate total revenue and EBITDA to be roughly flat compared to the fourth quarter which implies another possible loss-making quarter.

• Elastic NV has managed to deliver another all-around beat in its last result and increased its revenue by 27% in the last quarter.
• Though there have been challenges and obstacles in the macro environment recently, such as problems regarding the supply chain, Elastic has maintained its growth trajectory.
• We also have a dedicated analysis of the company’s Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) risk scores in order to evaluate the sustainability risk.

• We estimate that BILI’s 1Q23 rev./adj. net income are 3%/11% vs cons. 
• We raise gaming/ads revenue starting from 2Q23 because of 1) an increasing number of newly approved games; and 2) increasing possibilities that pre-roll ads could be launched. 
• Yet, we still maintain SELL rating and TP unchanged because of concerns about its content ecosystem. Our TP implies 1.7X PS in 2023.

• Nutanix delivered a strong first quarter with an all-around beat.
• The company’s renewals continue to be strong, exceeding its projected metrics.
• Nutanix managed to deliver a successful quarter with efficient growth in the number of customers as well as in revenue and ACV billings.