United States

• The SP500 and DXY both dropped yesterday—historically an unusual development.
• We examine the SP500-DXY relationship alongside long-term shifts in capital flow and what this could mean for global markets vs SP500.
• A distinct performance trend that began in 2009 may now be in the process of reversing.

• Shell reaffirmed its strategy, prioritizing efficiency, LNG growth, and shareholder returns, unlike BP’s strategic shift back to hydrocarbons after an aggressive renewables push.
• As the world’s largest LNG trader, Shell plans 4%-5% annual LNG sales growth, capitalizing on rising global demand while maintaining financial discipline and emissions targets
• Shell aims to save USD 5 – 7 billion by 2028, cut capex to USD 20 – 22 billion, and streamline operations to enhance free cash flow and investor returns.

• For the week ending 28/Mar, U.S. crude inventories rose by 6.2m barrels (vs. expectations of 0.2k fall), and gasoline stockpiles fell less than expected.
• US natural gas inventories rose by 29 Bcf for the week ending 28/Mar, exceeding analyst expectations of a 27 Bcf build. Inventories are 4.3% below the 5-year seasonal average.
• Chevron sold its Texas gas assets for USD 525 million, while Exxon, Occidental, Schlumberger, and Aramco had their price targets cut.

• Drops greater than 5% on a Friday are rare, we examine historical returns after such events.
• We revisit 1987 price action and reconstructed VIX levels to add historical context.
• With circuit breakers now in place and political volatility elevated, we assess what today’s sell-off might mean for the next trading day.

• Reynolds Consumer Products, Inc. reported its financial performance for the fourth quarter and full year of 2024.
• The company experienced a modest volumetric growth of 1% in the fourth quarter across its business units, which include Reynolds Cooking & Baking, Hefty Waste & Storage, Presto, and Hefty Tableware.
• Despite navigating a challenging market environment, the company achieved its strongest profitability since the COVID 19 surge in 2020, highlighted by expanded margins and earnings surpassing initial projections.

• Steven Madden, Ltd. reported solid financial results for the full year 2024, with revenue increasing 15.2% year over-year to $2.3 billion and diluted earnings per share rising 9% to $2.67.
• The company emphasized four key business drivers: international expansion, category diversification beyond footwear, growth in direct-to-consumer (DTC) channels, and reinforcement of its U.S. wholesale footwear business.
• International revenue rose 12%, with notable growth in the EMEA region (18%), including Europe, the Middle East, and South Africa.

• Century Communities reported a record-breaking performance for both the fourth quarter and full year 2024, highlighted by increased deliveries and community expansion.
• The company delivered 11,007 homes in 2024, a 15% increase year-over-year, and expanded its community count by 28% to 322.
• This growth was robust despite fluctuating mortgage rates, which were offset by strategic incentives to drive sales.

• Bright Horizons Family Solutions concluded its fourth quarter and full-year 2024 with notable financial results, reflecting significant revenue and earnings growth.
• For the year, the company reported an 11% increase in total revenue and a remarkable 22% growth in adjusted EPS, surpassing initial projections.
• A key contributor to this performance was the back-up care segment, which exceeded expectations on revenue and operating income, thereby strengthening the company’s overall business mix.

• BigCommerce’s fourth quarter and fiscal year 2024 earnings announcement revealed a mixed financial performance as the company navigates its transformational strategy towards more efficient and profitable operations.
• The company’s non-GAAP operating income showed a remarkable improvement, surpassing $19 million, which is nearly double the original forecast, while operating cash flow reached $26 million, marking a $50 million increase from 2023.
• These outcomes underscore BigCommerce’s effective cost management, attributed to decreased ineffective sales and marketing expenditure and a 10% headcount reduction.

• CytoSorbents is commercializing its E.U. approved CytoSorb blood purification technology to treat life-threatening conditions in the intensive care unit and cardiac surgery.
• The company also seeks U.S. and Canadian approval of a second product, DrugSorb-ATR, to reduce perioperative bleeding risk in patients on blood thinners during cardiac surgery.
• Based on the results of its pivotal U.S. and Canadian STAR-T trial, the company submitted for FDA De Novo approval on September 27, 2024, and Health Canada on November 1, 2024, with regulatory decisions expected in 2025.

• For weeks, if not months, the world has been wondering what the “reciprocal tariffs” would be, and what the logic would be behind them.
• There is talk of VAT, and NTBs, and huge tariff step-ups after quotas are exceeded (US exports of milk and cheese to Canada – high tariffs, but quotas not exceeded).
• But a quick check of the math on the Trump Executive Order and Annex I tells you the logic is different than what everyone expected. 

• We remain steadfast in our belief in our company’s future. That said, there are no quick fixes. We need to demonstrate consistent execution and results over a sustained period. Frank Yeary
• Intel’s ELT scored themselves a remarkable 29.7 out of 35 for their 2024 “Product Leadership” goal, despite mounting data center market share loss and Gaudi being an abject failure
• While Pat Gelsinger’s departure from Intel was labelled a “retirement” last December, the Proxy Statement refers to it as a “resignation”. Which was it?

• This insight will be different from the usual format: its goal is help those reading our insights and using our models to apply our analysis during a financial crisis.
• Take this as a sort of “user manual” to use our models during the Bear Market caused by Trump’s Tariffs War.
• The Nasdaq-100 Stock Index (NDX INDEX) WEEKLY will be analyzed to make some clarifications and examples.

• The Swedish startup has formally filed for a US IPO and is aiming to raise $1 billion, at a valuation of between $15 billion and $20 billion. 
• Buy now, pay later is one of the biggest shifts in modern finance. Klarna isn’t just BNPL anymore: it has a whole shopping and payments ecosystem.
• Klarna may be a heavyweight in BNPL, but it’s not alone in the ring. Heavy hitters like Affirm, Afterpay, and PayPal are also scrambling for dominance.

• Spectrum Brands Holdings, Inc. had a mixed first quarter of fiscal year 2025, as revealed in their recent financial results.
• The company experienced a modest increase in net sales, driven by strategic investments and several successful initiatives across its business segments.
• Net sales grew by 1.2% overall, with organic sales, excluding unfavorable foreign exchange impacts, rising by 1.9%.

• American Express Global Business Travel reported strong financial performance for the fourth quarter and full year of 2024, showcasing a record year for adjusted EBITDA and revenue.
• The company exceeded the midpoint of its guidance range, with adjusted EBITDA rising by 26% year-over-year.
• These results were driven by growth in technology-enabled productivity, a scalable cost base, and robust free cash flow generation.

• GoodRx, the company focused on providing users with discounts on prescriptions and other healthcare services, recently reported its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year of 2024.
• The company highlighted several strategic initiatives and partnerships aimed at driving future growth, including enhanced partnerships with pharmacies, pharmaceutical manufacturers, and healthcare professionals.
• In terms of financial performance, GoodRx posted fourth-quarter revenue of $198.6 million and an adjusted EBITDA of $67.1 million.

• Coursera’s latest quarterly and full-year earnings report highlights a complex picture characterized by noteworthy achievements as well as certain challenges.
• Revenue for the fourth quarter of 2024 reached $179 million, marking a 6% increase from the previous year across all operational segments.
• Full-year revenue stood at $695 million, up 9% year-over-year, alongside significant profitability improvements, exemplified by a 750 basis point increase in annual adjusted EBITDA margin and over $59 million in free cash flow.

• Acuity Brands reported solid financial results for its fiscal 2025 first quarter, reflecting competent execution of its strategic objectives.
• The company achieved year-over-year sales growth of 2% to $952 million, supported by expansions in both its Lighting and Intelligent Spaces segments.
• Acuity Brands’ adjusted operating profit also rose by 3% to $159 million, leading to a slight increase in profit margins, capitalizing on product vitality and improved price management strategies.

• BellRing Brands recently reported its first-quarter fiscal 2025 results, marking a promising start to the year.
• The company saw an acceleration in business performance with total net sales and adjusted EBITDA increasing by approximately 25%.
• This success was mainly driven by Premier Protein, whose strong performance contributed to favorable gross margins.

• Chagee Holdings (CHA US), a leading premium tea drinks brand, is seeking to raise US$400-500 million through a Nasdaq IPO. 
• According to iResearch, as of December 31, 2024, Chagee was the largest premium freshly made tea drink brand in China by the number of stores.
• The bull case rests on a strong brand, leading market share, peer-leading revenue growth, top-tier profitability and cash generation.   

• Chagee Holdings (CHA US) is planning to raise up to US$500m through its upcoming US IPO.
• Chagee is a leading premium tea drinks brand, serving healthy and delicious freshly-made tea drinks.
• In this note, we look at the firm’s past performance.

• US base oils export price-discount to US domestic prices stays narrower in Q1 2025 vs year-earlier.
• Narrower export price-discount points to more manageable supply surplus at end-2024 and early this year, when domestic demand faced seasonal slowdown.
• More manageable supply surplus follows firm export volumes through H2 2024 and early this year.

• CEO Mr TAN confronts what’s wrong: Intel needs better product performance, to listen to the market needs. Intel needs Foundry processes that support customers’ designs. Not the other way around. 
• Product presentation very off-base: robotaxi, AI-PC, Gaudi 3 is back as Intel’s AI strategy. Foundry non-announcement: 18A risk production is starting – of course it is, otherwise 18A is flawed. 
• Consensus is expecting a swift turnaround in 2026-27. There is currently no reason to believe this. On these rosy expectations, the stock trades at 19x 2026 EPS.

• Politico just published a report saying that Elon Musk is about to Step Back from DOGE, if true, this could impact somehow Tesla (TSLA US) stock price.
• Death threats and the spate vandalism directed at Tesla (TSLA US)‘s cars, plus Musk being viewed as a potential political liability by members of the Trump Administration are the drivers.
• Tesla (TSLA US) brand has been heavily damaged by Musk involvement in politics, sales are falling gobally and competitors like BYD (1211 HK) are rising. The stock is short-term OVERBOUGHT.

• Chagee adopts the “1+1+9+N” business model, which ensures the successful replication of the single store model. However, we saw performance decline in 2024, and future performance growth sustainability is uncertain.
• In terms of valuation, comparable companies include Starbucks and MIXUE. We think valuation of Chagee should be lower than MIXUE and Starbucks as both have proved themselves in the industry.
• Future growth would inevitably slow down. Investors may need more ‘safety margins’ on valuation because despite short-term strong demand, investors need to be alert to the performance validation after IPO.  

• Global base oils prices slip relative to firmer feedstock/competing fuel prices.
• Base oils margins in most markets remain at levels that point to balanced-to-tight supply-demand fundamentals, incentivizing refiners to maintain higher output.
• FOB Asia base oils prices fall vs gasoil prices.

• Copa Holdings delivered a mixed yet robust performance in the fourth quarter and full year of 2024, illustrating its resilience and operational efficiency in a fluctuating market.
• Positively, the company reported an operating margin of 21.9% for the year, which reflects consistent execution of its business model focused on cost efficiency and operational excellence.
• An increase in capacity by 8.6% year-over-year was aligned with previous guidance.

• The recent earnings results for Maximus Inc. portray a complex but promising landscape for the company, revealing both opportunities and challenges.
• Financially, Maximus reported revenue of $1.40 billion for the first quarter of fiscal 2025, reflecting a 5.7% year-over-year growth, with an organic growth rate of 6.3%.
• The U.S. Federal Services segment was a primary growth driver with a 15.3% increase in revenues, suggesting strong performance in areas like clinical assessments and customer service programs.

• Advanced Energy Industries, Inc. reported its fourth quarter and full-year 2024 financial results, demonstrating a strong finish to the year after a rocky start.
• The company achieved notable highlights, with Q4 revenue reaching $450 million, an 11% increase sequentially and 3% year-over-year, driven by strong performance in semiconductor and data center computing markets.
• Advanced Energy’s semiconductor revenue, at $227 million, marked a 15% sequential increase and 19% year-over-year growth.

• Rather than love, than money, than fame, give me the truth
• I intend to under promise and over deliver. I will not be satisfied until we delight you
• How long will I stay at Intel? I’m here for as long as it takes

• According to our sources, the deal is multiple-times oversubscribed — our sources stated around 5x. 
• Self-Storage was Monday’s second best performing sub-sector (+1.8%) as the overall REIT sector (+0.7%) slightly outperformed the broader market.
• While the “typical” IPO investor may not be “enthused”, the timing for this type of deal “may” be ideal for yield-chasers.

• Last week we discussed how evidence was pointing to a major low at 5500-5600 on the SPX, but now it appears more likely to just have been a local low
• Market dynamics have continued to deteriorate to the point where we no longer see this as a buying opportunity.
• We are cautious and would get defensive as long as the S&P 500 is below 5770-5780 and its 200-day MA; we believe we are in a “sell rallies” regime

• For the week ending 28/Mar, U.S. natural gas prices gained 4.6% due to rising LNG exports and a drop in daily natural gas output.
• Henry Hub gained 1.7% on 27/Mar (Thu), driven by lower output, record LNG exports, and stronger demand forecasts, despite a build in U.S. natural gas storage.
• Henry Hub OI PCR decreased to 0.98 on 28/Mar from 1.05 on 21/Mar. Call OI fell by 10.1% WoW, while put OI dropped by 16.1%.

• WTI futures rose 1.6% for the week ending 28/Mar, driven by escalating trade tensions and declining U.S. crude oil inventories.
• The U.S. rig count fell by one to 592. The oil rig count dropped by two to 484, and gas rigs rose by one to 103.
• WTI OI PCR grew to 0.91 on 28/Mar from 0.90 on 21/Mar. Call OI increased by 7.0% WoW, while put OI grew by 7.3%.

• This week, two charts caught my eye. First, investor sentiment continues to be very bad.

• Second, non-US stocks are actually performing well.

• Quietly, one of my recommendations, Airtel Africa (AAF) is at an all-time high. Airtel Africa is a good example of what you can find in international markets.

• On March 31st 2025 I spoke to Mark Schneider of investor relations from IAC.
• Mark currently covers investor relations for Angi, Inc as well. but Angi will be hiring its new head of investor relations soon.
• Our conversation was productive and increased my confidence in the outlook for Angi.

• Asia’s base oils prices extend dip versus feedstock/gasoil prices.
• Margins hold firm for heavy grades, pointing to still-strong supply-demand fundamentals.
• Firm margins partially cushion impact of weaker light-grade margins.

• Monthly deep-dive into price and vol metrics across Global indexes and macro assets.
• In-Depth look at the current state of the markets as well as how volatility and price may unfold.
• We highlight strong seasonal trends in April, with all markets typically rising and realized vol typically coming in below implied.

• Asia’s base oils demand could hold firm over the coming weeks as buyers replenish low stocks and lube consumption holds steady.
• Rising crude oil prices could provide additional support.
• Seasonal slowdown in demand from end of second quarter typically starts to curb buying interest several weeks before then.

• Amcor (AMCR US) and Berry Global Group (BERY US) all-stock merger creates a $24B packaging leader with $650M in synergies by year three.
• Berry Global Group (BERY US) shareholders to receive 7.25 Amcor (AMCR US) shares per share held, with the deal expected to close soon.
• The merger’s impact on major U.S. indices expected on an intra-quarter basis.

• As of December 31, 2024, their network comprised 6,440 teahouses, including 6,284 located in China.
• Their net revenues increased by 844% to RMB4,640.2 million in 2023 from RMB491.7 million in 2022. 
• We anticipate this company to set terms (share size, price range) and debut in the second half of April.

• UiPath reported its fourth-quarter and full-year fiscal 2025 financial performance, marking several high and low points that are critical for investors to examine as they consider their future involvement with the company.
• On the positive side, UiPath achieved a quarterly revenue of $424 million, with only a slight impact from foreign exchange fluctuations.
• For the full fiscal year, revenue increased to $1.43 billion, reflecting a 9% improvement year-over-year.

• WTI rebounded in March due to geopolitical risks, but oversupply concerns and Trump’s unpredictable policies may limit further gains as OPEC increases output from April.
• Henry Hub rallied in 2025, driven by strong LNG demand, supply constraints, and below-average inventories, positioning it for sustained support despite short-term volatility.
• Henry Hub’s technicals indicate a potential bullish reversal, while WTI’s bullish momentum shows signs of weakening, suggesting divergent trends in the near term.

• TEGNA Inc. recently presented its fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 financial results, demonstrating both opportunities and challenges for potential investors.
• The company reported a significant 20% year-over-year increase in total revenue for the fourth quarter, amounting to $871 million, primarily driven by political advertising revenues.
• However, the political advertising performance nearly matched that of the 2020 election cycle, indicating the cyclical nature of this revenue stream.

• C3.ai has exhibited a solid performance in the third fiscal quarter of 2025, ending January 31, 2025, with both positive developments and certain challenges.
• The company reported total revenue of $98.8 million, representing a 26% increase year-over-year.
• Subscription revenue, constituting the majority of its revenue, grew by 22% to $85.7 million.

• MasTec Inc. has reported strong financial results for the fourth quarter and full year 2024.
• The company’s performance exceeded expectations across several key metrics, including revenue, adjusted EBITDA, and earnings per share (EPS).
• For the fourth quarter, MasTec achieved a revenue of $3.4 billion with an adjusted EBITDA of $271 million, marking a 20% year-over-year increase.

• The battle for boardroom influence at Phillips 66 has entered a new phase.
• On March 25, 2025, activist hedge fund Elliott Investment Management filed a lawsuit against Phillips 66 and its board, demanding that four board seats be opened for election at the upcoming annual shareholder meeting.
• This move comes just weeks after Elliott revealed it had increased its stake in the oil refiner to $2.5 billion and nominated seven directors.

• AAON, Inc.’s recent earnings for the fourth quarter of 2024 provided investors with a detailed overview of the company’s financial performance, strategic initiatives, and outlook.
• The company, which boasts a strong position in the heating and cooling industry, highlighted both its achievements and challenges during the year.
• On the positive side, AAON reported a substantial increase in bookings and backlog, signaling strong future demand.

• The Middleby Corporation has recently reported on various strategic changes and an earnings summary for the fourth quarter of 2024.
• The company announced its decision to spin off its Food Processing business to form a separate publicly traded entity, aiming to create two distinct companies: Middleby Corporation focusing on commercial and residential kitchen equipment, and Middleby Food Processing.
• This move is expected to allow each business to sharpen its strategic and operational focus, optimize capital structure, and align more strategically with its respective market opportunities.

• CoreWeave (CRWV US) is forecasted to be added to snp TMI at the June 2025 review after failing the fast-entry fcap threshold of $2bn. 
• CoreWeave (CRWV US) is ineligible in 2025 for inclusion to Global-F and rasel due to public voting rights below 5%. 
• Lock-Up expiry causes free float thus public voting rights to increase above 5%. Addition to Global-F SmallCap and R1000 is expected in March and June 2026, respectively.

• SailPoint, a pioneer of enterprise identity governance market with industry leadership position, returned to the public markets in 2025.
• American technology company has raised ~$1.4B in US IPO and paid down all outstanding debt in 1Q FY26, according to Brian Carolan, CFO of SailPoint, Inc.
• The company reported mixed 4Q FY25 results with ~78% y/y increase in customers with ARR˃$1M and a bullish tone on AI agent identity management.

• Abercrombie & Fitch Company delivered strong financial performance in the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2024, marking a successful turnaround and growth trajectory driven by robust sales, improved operating efficiencies, and strategic investments.
• The period ended with notable financial achievements including a 9% increase in net sales year-over-year, translating to $1.58 billion.
• Excluding the impact of the 53rd week in 2023, the net sales growth was an even more impressive 14%.

• Celanese Corporation recently concluded its Q4 2024 earnings call, led by CEO Scott Richardson and CFO Chuck Kyrish.
• The company has been taking proactive measures to enhance performance amidst industry challenges.
• The leadership’s focus has been on cash generation, cost reduction, and strategic divestitures, as reflected in the company’s actions over the past quarters.

• Cheniere Energy posted robust results for the fourth quarter and full year 2024, demonstrating its strong operational and financial performance.
• The company reported a consolidated adjusted EBITDA of approximately $1.6 billion for the fourth quarter, with a full-year total of $6.155 billion.
• This reflects solid underlying business performance, driven by Cheniere’s focus on safety, operational excellence, customer engagement, and financial discipline.

• Cogent Communications Holdings reported its fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 financial results, with some noteworthy developments across its business segments and operations.
• The company closed the year with total revenue of $252.3 million for the quarter, bringing the full year’s revenue to $1 billion, an increase from $940.9 million in 2023.
• EBITDA, as adjusted, was $66.9 million for the quarter and $348.4 million for the year, showing a slight decrease compared to the previous year’s $352.5 million.

• DENTSPLY SIRONA’s fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 earnings report reflects a mixed performance amid ongoing challenges and strategic repositioning.
• On the positive side, the company experienced growth in several areas, including a 13% uplift in imaging and a 7% increase in Wellspect sales.
• In Europe, DENTSPLY SIRONA achieved a 2% organic sales growth, supported by significant momentum in Germany and a 20% year-on-year growth in the SureSmile business.

• GitLab Inc. delivered a strong performance in the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2025, showcasing impressive top line growth and improved profitability metrics.
• The company’s revenue increased by 29% year-over-year to $211.4 million, driven by robust momentum in its enterprise offerings, particularly GitLab’s Ultimate and Duo products.
• Notably, the company demonstrated significant operating leverage with a non-GAAP operating margin of 17.7%, an increase of more than 960 basis points compared to the same period in the previous year.

• HashiCorp has reported its fiscal 2024 fourth-quarter earnings, surpassing expectations with $156 million in revenue, signaling a 15% year-over-year growth.
• The company has shown strong overall performance in the context of a challenging economic landscape, indicating potential recovery signs in the market.
• The non-GAAP remaining performance obligations also reported a growth of 21% year-over-year, reaching $483 million, reflecting continuous demand for its offerings.

• Lumentum Holdings recently released its second-quarter fiscal year 2025 earnings, presenting a blend of strong performance in certain segments and ongoing challenges in others.
• Led by CEO Alan Lowe, who has announced his retirement, the company highlighted key financial results and strategic initiatives amidst a backdrop of leadership transition.
• In the second quarter, Lumentum exceeded the high end of its guidance range for both revenue and earnings per share.

• Macy’s Inc.’s fourth quarter 2024 results reflect a mixture of strategic advancements and continued challenges within a shifting retail landscape.
• First, the positive aspect of Macy’s strategy comes through its “Bold New Chapter” framework, which focuses on enhancing customer experiences, optimizing store operations, and improving merchandising and digital capabilities.
• This plan is seemingly paying off as Macy’s achieved a 0.2% year-over-year increase in comparable sales, marking its best performance in 11 quarters.

• Signet Jewelers Ltd. is currently navigating a complex landscape, balancing strategic restructuring with the need to address short-term operational challenges.
• The fourth quarter of the fiscal year reflected a decline in revenue by 6%, yet adjusted earnings per share (EPS) maintained near previous levels due to significant share repurchases.
• Same-store sales fell by 1.1%, influenced by the absence of a 53rd week from the prior fiscal year, which accounted for an approximate 4-point difference in total sales.

• One factor that I closely follow in the spin-off universe is insider buying.
• Here’s what Peter Lynch wrote about insiders and spin-offs in One Up on Wall Street: [Spin-offs] are a fertile area for amateur investors…….A month or two after the spinoff is completed, you can check to see if there is heavy insider buying among the new officers and directors.
• There are four names in my universe that have interesting insider activity.

• Analog Devices, Inc. (ADI) reported its financial results for the first quarter of fiscal year 2025, showing better than-anticipated performance despite prevailing macroeconomic and geopolitical challenges.
• Revenue reached $2.42 billion, surpassing the midpoint of its outlook, although this marked a 4% year-over-year decline.
• When adjusted for an extra week in the comparable period last year, sales represented a 4% year-over-year increase.

• Since its IPO back in 2007, Lululemon always posted double-digit revenue growth every single year.
• While there was plenty of skepticism throughout 2024, they managed to eke out double digit growth last year.
• But 2025 topline guidance of 5-7% implies the era of persistent double digit growth regardless of the economy is likely behind us!

• CoreWeave priced a down-sized transaction of 37.5mm shares at $40.00 ($7 Below the Original $47-$55 range) and opened at $39.00 for a loss of 2.5% at first trade
• According to our underwriter sources, the deal finished multiple-times oversubscribed with the top three accounts getting 50% of the deal and the top 15 accounts taking down 90% of the transaction.
• This IPO in particular was a difficult deal to value for IPO investors based upon being a “first mover” in the AI space.

• For the week ending 21/Mar, U.S. crude inventories fell by 3.3m barrels (vs. expectations of 1.5m build), gasoline and distillate stockpiles fell less than expected.
• US natural gas inventories rose by 37 Bcf for the week ending 21/Mar, in line with analyst expectations. Inventories are 6.5% below the 5-year seasonal average.
• Shell to boost shareholder distributions to 40-50% of CFFO and cut costs by USD 5-7 billion by 2028. Exxon plans 250 layoffs in the UK by 2026.

• We believe addressing these three key areas remains essential for strengthening the investment thesis and enhancing investors’ confidence in the company’s long-term value proposition.
• 1) The company’s differentiation strategy within the relatively crowded Hong Kong and Singapore insurance marketplaces; 2) its insurance offerings’ product market fit; 3) disclosure on cross-selling metrics going forward
• We think articulating a comprehensive strategy and detailed implementation roadmap, targeting these key areas, can enhance investor confidence and potentially provide support for the company’s valuation.

• On March 25, 2025, Imunon, Inc. (IMNN) held a conference call to discuss the finalized protocol for a Phase 3 clinical trial of IMNN-001 in patients with newly diagnosed ovarian cancer.
• The study will mirror the Phase 2 OVATION 2 trial that reported benefits in both progression-free and overall survival.
• It will initially focus on those patients who are positive for homologous recombination deficiency (HDR) positive, including BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutations.

• Freshpet delivered a strong performance in the fiscal year 2024, characterized by notable growth in net sales and even more significant improvements in profitability.
• The company’s net sales reached $975 million, marking a 27% increase from the previous year, driven largely by volume gains.
• This was predominantly a result of increased household penetration and buy rates, boosted by strategic media investments and retail expansion.

• Leggett & Platt’s fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 results reflect a challenging market environment with mixed outcomes from restructuring efforts and demand dynamics across its segments.
• Throughout 2024, Leggett & Platt undertook significant restructuring, particularly in its Bedding Products segment, as well as in home furniture, flooring products, and hydraulic cylinders.
• The company exceeded its target for restructuring EBIT benefits, achieving $22 million, which was above the expected $10 million to $15 million, indicating successful execution of the restructuring plans.

• SentinelOne reported strong financial results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year 2025, with significant achievements and certain challenges that are crucial for investors to assess.
• The company experienced noteworthy revenue growth, reaching $226 million in Q4, marking a 29% increase year-over-year.
• The total revenue for fiscal year 2025 amounted to $821 million, demonstrating an annual growth rate of 32%.

• Tesla’s highly anticipated trial launch of its Full Self-Driving (FSD) system in China has suffered a setback, as some users report not receiving the feature update due to a delay in regulatory approval.
• Tesla China said Monday that it is working to secure government approval for both software and hardware under new national guidelines issued by China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the State Administration for Market Regulation.
• The company said the trial will resume once all preparations are complete.

• Walgreens Boots Alliance has seen their stock price decimated over the last decade due to competition from E-commerce retailers like Amazon.
• Sycamore Partners is taking Walgreens Boots private in a $24 billion leveraged buyout, their first foray into the healthcare sector.
• Major private equity firms have been cautious of retail buyouts due to potential bad publicity and shifting priorities towards other investments.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• The Wendy’s Company reported its fiscal 2024 fourth quarter and full-year results, highlighting a range of strategic initiatives and financial metrics.
• The company experienced a 5.4% increase in global system-wide sales on a constant currency basis during the fourth quarter, driven largely by same-restaurant sales growth in the U.S. and internationally.
• This was bolstered by innovative menu offerings and strategic partnerships, such as the collaboration with Paramount on SpongeBob’s 25th anniversary, which contributed significantly to sales.

• According to sources, the deal is being reworked with significant share size reduction and a downwardly-revised price.
• Ultimately, a smaller size transaction with a more attractive valuation will make this IPO easier to digest. 
• We lack conviction in this IPO at this time and believe that investors looking to have a long-term position in the company may be better suited as an aftermarket participant. 

• Brad Jacobs’ company QXO acquired Beacon Roofing for $11 billion in all cash deal
• Beacon Roofing is a distributor specializing in roofing and waterproofing products.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• Qualys, Inc., a pioneer in software-as-a-service (SaaS) security, recently shared its fourth-quarter 2024 financial results and strategic updates, marking its 25th anniversary.
• The company’s CEO, Sumedh Thakar, emphasized the transformation and rebranding efforts that have strengthened Qualys’ position in the cybersecurity sector.
• Their platform, initially focused on vulnerability scanning, has evolved into a comprehensive risk analytics and quantification solution, leveraging AI to provide an integrated risk management workflow for customers.

• Antero Midstream has demonstrated strong financial performance in the fourth quarter of 2024, emphasizing its ten-year growth trajectory in EBITDA, which reached $1.05 billion for the year.
• This growth, along with a record Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 19%, underscores the company’s strategic investments and operational efficiency.
• The acquisition strategy and just-in-time capital investments have been key contributors to this performance.

• Mister Car Wash, in its fourth quarter and full-year 2024 financial results announcement, reported a strong finish to the year, with significant gains in key financial metrics and operational developments.
• The company delivered a 6% growth in comparable store sales during the fourth quarter, marking its seventh consecutive quarter of comparable sales growth.
• This was largely driven by the successful introduction of the premium Titanium service, and overall revenues for the year grew by 7%, with adjusted EBITDA rising by 12%.

• Arrow Electronics concluded the fourth quarter of 2024 with a mixed performance, characterized by resilience and adaptability amidst challenging market conditions, notably in the semiconductor industry.
• The company reported financial metrics that exceeded expectations, with total sales of $7.3 billion and non-GAAP earnings per share of $2.97.
• These results reflect Arrow’s strategic focus on navigating the semiconductor market’s cyclical correction and strengthening its global components segment.

• Illumina, a global leader in gene-sequencing machines, is facing a wave of turbulence that has significantly dented investor confidence.
• The company has recently announced that activist investor Keith Meister, who heads Corvex Management and owns a 2.5% stake in the company, will be joining its board of directors.
• At the same time, former FDA commissioner Scott Gottlieb will replace Stephen MacMillan as chairman, marking a substantial leadership reshuffle aimed at steering the company out of its current malaise.

• 25,000 people attended Nvidia sessions, making it one of the busiest single company shows
• Initial disappointment at keynote, followed by renewed enthusiasm after investor Q&A and show attendance
• Disillusionment with lack of new AI advancements and repeated demos at Nvidia booth, feeling like a cult atmosphere

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• Altria Group reported its fourth quarter and full-year 2024 earnings with several noteworthy developments.
• Financially, the company delivered strong results, primarily supported by its core tobacco operations.
• Altria grew its adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) by 3.4% for the full year, maintaining a trend of returning substantial capital to shareholders through $10.2 billion in dividends and share repurchases.

• Micron Technology’s recent performance has sparked mixed reactions across Wall Street, as investors try to reconcile strong product innovation with weak near-term financial guidance.
• The company’s fiscal first-quarter results beat Wall Street expectations, with adjusted earnings of $1.79 per share, slightly above the consensus of $1.76.
• Revenue stood at $8.7 billion, in line with projections.

• Brian Van Abel, CFO of Xcel Energy, discusses the opportunities presented by power hungry data centers
• Xcel Energy is a large fully regulated electric and gas utility serving eight states with a market cap of approximately $40 billion
• Xcel Energy has a track record of delivering on earnings guidance and is committed to carbon reduction goals, with a 2050 carbon-free goal and plans to reduce carbon by more than 80% by 2030

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• Coinbase’s recent plunge might make this crypto exchange look like a tempting buy, but don’t assume it’s a bargain just yet.
• Regulatory clarity is key for wider crypto adoption,  and the new administration is likely to approve stablecoin and market structure laws later this year.
• To justify a higher valuation, the firm needs to build a more diverse and stable revenue stream that’s less dependent on transaction fees from trading.

• FedEx Corporation’s third-quarter fiscal 2025 performance showcases a balanced mix of operational successes and challenges.
• The results highlight a 2% year-over-year revenue increase, primarily attributed to operational efficiency initiatives, notably the DRIVE savings program, which achieved $600 million in savings for the quarter.
• Driven by these efficiencies, the company saw a 12% increase in adjusted operating income and a 17% rise in adjusted EPS compared to the previous year.

• Rambus has delivered a strong performance for the fiscal year 2024, achieving impressive results in both its financials and execution of strategic initiatives.
• The company reported revenue of $161.1 million for the fourth quarter, surpassing the high end of its forecasts, and a record product revenue of $247 million for the year.
• The company’s memory interface chip segment has been a significant contributor to this success, with revenue of $73 million for Q4, marking an 11% sequential increase and a 37% year-over-year increase.

• FET’s confident free cash flow outlook in FY25 positions the company to consider returning cash to shareholders through an existing share repurchase authorization in 2025.
• In December 2024, FET’s Board of Directors authorized a share repurchase program of up to $75 million.
• The senior secured bonds (due 2029) issued in November 2024 allow repurchases after FET meets a defined leverage test. 

• As of December 31, 2024, they had approximately 3.5 million Funded Accounts across their global footprint of 75 countries.
• As of December 31, 2024, the Company had $113 million of cryptoassets presented as current assets, and $5,775 million cryptoassets held on behalf of its users in custody.
• In 2024, eToro generated $12.6bn of revenue, of which $12.1bn was attributable to crypto assets and the remainder from equities, commodities and currencies. 

• In our 2/25/25 Compass, we discussed our expectation for near-term downside. Also said one or two 8-10% pullbacks in a given year on the SPX is common
• And said to not be surprised if there is a test of the bottom of the range at either 5770-5850 or 5600-5670, where we would be buyers
• The SPX had a -10.3% peak-to-trough decline, with support showing up at 5500; close enough to our 10% pullback and 5600 level. This has been a stellar buy area