In today’s briefing:
- Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): Got to Know when to Hold ‘em, when to Fold ’em
- Guzman IPO Lockup – Last of the Lockups for a US$750m+ Release
- Apiam Animal Health (AHX AU): Adamantem’s NBIO
- Global Markets Tactical Outlook WEEKLY: August 18 – August 22
- Bell Financial Group Ltd – A strong July lmost offsets H1 FY25 decline
Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): Got to Know when to Hold ‘em, when to Fold ’em
- On 17 May, Cosette asserted that a material adverse change had occurred. Mayne Pharma (MYX AU) disputes the claim with court proceedings set to start on 22 September.
- Mayne’s FY25 results on 29 August should provide incremental clarity, but not a definite answer, on the MAC breach relating to maintainable EBITDA (decline by at least A$10.76 million).
- The outcome of the trial remains uncertain as both Mayne and Cosette have valid arguments. Risk/reward is attractive – upside (43.1% to offer) vs the downside (22.3% to deal-break price).
Guzman IPO Lockup – Last of the Lockups for a US$750m+ Release
- Guzman Y Gomez (GYG AU) raised around US$221m in its Australian IPO. Its final IPO linked lockup expiry is due soon.
- GYG is a quick service restaurant business with more than 200 restaurants globally. It mainly focuses on fresh, made-to-order, Mexican-inspired food.
- In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.
Apiam Animal Health (AHX AU): Adamantem’s NBIO
- Apiam Animal Health (AHX AU), Australia’s largest rural and regional veterinary group, has announced a non-binding indicative Offer from PE outfit Adamantem Capital.
- Adamantem is offering A$0.88/share, a 64.5% premium to last close. If terms are firmed, shareholders will also be afforded a partial scrip option into an unlisted bidco.
- Adamantem has also entered into a call option for 19.9% of shares out at A$0.88/share. An independent board committee are assessing the approach. Due diligence not yet granted.
Global Markets Tactical Outlook WEEKLY: August 18 – August 22
- A quick synoptic look at the tactical setups for the indices, stocks, commodities and bonds we cover, for the week August 18 – August 22. .XLSX MODEL DATA FILE ATTACHED.
- OVERBOUGHT at the WEEKLY Close: AAPL US , GOOG US , META US , China Mobile (941 HK) , Toyota Motor (7203 JP) , Softbank Group (9984 JP) , Nikkei 225
- OVERSOLD at the WEEKLY Close: Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA AU) , Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY)
Bell Financial Group Ltd – A strong July lmost offsets H1 FY25 decline
- Bell Financial Group Ltd (ASX:BFG) is a diversified provider of financial products and software solutions within, and increasingly outside, its traditional full-service stockbroking business.
- BFG has reported a headline NPAT decline of 44% to $9.3m for H1 FY25.
- RaaS had forecast a decline of 32% excluding investment losses on the back of lower ECM activity, which was the case and saw the retail and institutional (broking) business move from a profit to a loss over the period (a $9.1m turnaround).
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