Daily Brief Australia: Predictive Discovery, Fenix Resources , Austal Ltd, Canyon Resources, Talga Group and more

• After Perseus Mining (PRU AU) fielded a scrip option for 17.8%-held Predictive Discovery (PDI AU), I questioned whether Robex Resources (RXR AU) would exercise its matching rights. I was wrong. 
• Robex has “lifted its bid“, now 7.862 PDI for every Robex share. Under the revised Offer Robex will own 46.5% of the combined entity, down from 49%.
• PDI considers the new terms to be superior to Perseus’ tilt. Apparently, so do several of PDI’s largest shareholders.  Perseus has now terminated its binding proposal. Out of the picture?

• Under the revised merger terms, Robex Resources (RBX CN) shareholders would receive 7.862 Predictive Discovery (PDI AU) shares per Robex share (vs 8.667 previously). PDI shareholders get 53.5% of MergerCo.
• The Board has declared that Robex’s offer is superior to the Perseus scheme’s offer. Strangely, on a value basis, the Robex revised offer is still lower than the Perseus offer.
• Robex’s offer is mainly superior due to support from major PDI shareholders, who reportedly oppose a Perseus Mining (PRU AU) scheme, thereby lowering the likelihood of a revised Perseus offer. 

• Fenix Resources (FEX AU) presented a 3-year production plan, with iron ore shipments growing from 2.4 million tons in FY25 to 5.7 million tons in FY28 (midpoint guidance).  
• The company upgraded its FY26 production guidance to 4.2-4.8 million tons (from earlier 4.1 million tons), while maintaining its cash costs in the 70-80 AUD/ton range (C1 cash costs).  
• A feasibility study has commenced, which will take Fenix Resources (FEX AU) into the 6-10 million range from FY29—more details in a management conference call on 15th December. 

• After the US’ CFIUS permitted the Hanwha Group to acquire up to a 100% stake in Aussie-based shipbuilding and defense firm Austal Ltd (ASB AU), FIRB’s support appeared a lock.
• FIRB has now cleared Hanwha to lift its stake to 19.9% from 9.9%, “and cannot increase its shareholding above 19.9 per cent“. Andrew and Nicola Forrest’s Tattarang currently holds ~19.4%. 
• This development should not come as a surprise. Fundamentally, Austal is not inexpensive. 

Canyon Resources confirmed it remains on track to commission the Minim Martap bauxite project in line with previous expectations, as Cameroon returns to ‘business as usual’ following the presidential elections. It continues to aim for first production in early 2026 and first shipment around mid-2026. The company remains well capitalised, having completed a first tranche of the A$205m funding package, with the remainder expected to close in Q1 CY26. We maintain our project level valuation of A$735m, which adjusted for corporate overheads and pro forma net cash implies a value of A$0.35/share, before accounting for the project’s vast residual resource.

• Talga Group (OTCQX: TLGRF, ASX: TLG) is a global leader in the development and production of graphite battery materials.
• Its flagship product, Talnode -C, is a fast-charge graphite anode material made in Sweden with an ultra-low carbon footprint.
• The company’s battery material technologies enable anode manufacturing from both natural and recycled graphite.