In today’s briefing:
- Qube Holdings (QUB AU): Macquarie’s NBIO at A$5.20
- Monash IVF (MVF AU) Rejects Soul Patts/Genesis’ Offer
- Bluescope (BSL AU) Vs. Short Sims (SGM AU): Pair Trade Back in Play
- Technology One Ltd – Outlook Intact Post Tech1’s FY25 Punishment
Qube Holdings (QUB AU): Macquarie’s NBIO at A$5.20
- Qube Holdings (QUB AU) has received a non-binding proposal from Macquarie Asset Management (MAM) at A$5.20 per share, a 27.8% premium to the undisturbed price.
- The Board has granted exclusive due diligence until 1 February 2026 (or 15 February under certain circumstances). A scheme offer would be conditional on FIRB and ACCC approval.
- While the offer represents an all-time high, the scarcity value of high-quality infrastructure assets could spur a competing bid from others, such as Brookfield, which holds pre-emptive rights at Patrick.
Monash IVF (MVF AU) Rejects Soul Patts/Genesis’ Offer
- Monash IVF (MVF AU), a fertility provider, has announced, and summarily rejected, a A$0.80/share non-binding indicative Offer from Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co. Ltd (SOL AU) & Genesis Capital.
- The indicative terms are a ~31% premium to last close. And ~7.7x FY25 EV/EBITDA. Chairman Richard Davis declared terms “opportunistic in timing and materially undervalues the company“.
- Genesis/Soul Patts collectively hold 19.6% in MVF. MVF’s share price has cratered this year after a woman was mistakenly implanted with the wrong embryo. The CEO subsequently stepped down.
Bluescope (BSL AU) Vs. Short Sims (SGM AU): Pair Trade Back in Play
- Context: The Bluescope Steel (BSL AU) vs. Sims Metal Management (SGM AU) price-ratio has deviated two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
- Highlights: Going long Bluescope (BSL AU) and short Sims (SGM AU) targets a 6% return.
- Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.
Technology One Ltd – Outlook Intact Post Tech1’s FY25 Punishment
- Shares in TechnologyOne reacted negatively on the release of a record FY25 performance, as not all metrics met elevated expectations and as the global technology sector is de-rated.
- -TechnologyOne delivers record FY25 metrics -Profit exceeds guidance, strong UK growth -Market concerns on softer than expected ARR and NRR -Global de-rating for the sector equally impacts on updated valuations/price targets
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