In today’s briefing:
- BYD (1211 HK): Some Threats Before 1Q25 Result
- Quiddity Leaderboard HSTECH Jun25: US$1.5bn One-Way; Large Inflow for Net Ease
- Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Jun25: US$470mn One-Way Flows Expected
- Dada Nexus (DADA US): Takeaways from the 13E-3 Filing
- Quiddity Leaderboard HSIII Jun25: US$317mn One-Way in June; Three Changes Likely in September
- ENN Energy (2688 HK): Privatisation Progressing Well Ahead
- Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
- Shandong Fengxiang (9977.HK) Privatization – Long-Term Investors May Be Unhappy with the Offer Price
- Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (April 14 – 17): Broader Participation, Softer Vols
- Asia Real Estate Tracker (21-Apr-2025): Mapletree sells Scotland student housing.
BYD (1211 HK): Some Threats Before 1Q25 Result
- The growth rate of sales volume slowed down in March 2025.
- Geely’s sales volume reached 46% of BYD’s in 1Q25, compared to 23% in 2024.
- We set a downside of 18% and a price target of HK$300 for the next twelve months.
Quiddity Leaderboard HSTECH Jun25: US$1.5bn One-Way; Large Inflow for Net Ease
- The HSTECH Index tracks the performance of the top 30 technology companies listed in Hong Kong that have high business exposure to certain technology themes.
- In this insight, we take a look at the flow expectations for the June 2025 index rebal event.
- We expect no index changes for June 2025 but we estimate there to be US$1.53bn in one-way flows which translates to a turnover of 7.4%.
Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Jun25: US$470mn One-Way Flows Expected
- The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of the top 50 “Mainland China” securities listed in Hong Kong.
- In this insight, we take a look at the flow expectations for the June 2025 index rebal event.
- We expect no index changes for June 2025 but we estimate there to be US$470mn in one-way flows which translates to a turnover of 4.3%.
Dada Nexus (DADA US): Takeaways from the 13E-3 Filing
- Dada Nexus (DADA US) has filed the 13E-3 relating to the binding proposal from JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US) at US$2.00 per ADS, a 41.8% premium to the undisturbed price.
- The 13E-3 filing provides more details on the price negotiations, required regulatory approvals and IFA valuation. Crucially, no Chinese regulatory approvals are required.
- The completion conditions are low-risk. At last close and for an end-September payment, the gross/annualised spread is 5.4%/12.1% (including the US$0.05 ADS cancellation fee).
Quiddity Leaderboard HSIII Jun25: US$317mn One-Way in June; Three Changes Likely in September
- The Hang Seng Internet & IT (HSIII) index represents the top 30 stocks related to internet and information technology businesses listed in Hong Kong (HKEX).
- In this insight, we take a look at our flow expectations for the June 2025 index rebal event.
- We have also presented our index change expectations for the next semiannual index review which will take place in September 2025 (regular ADDs/DELs only take place in March and September).
ENN Energy (2688 HK): Privatisation Progressing Well Ahead
- ENN Energy (2688 HK) is not required to submit a merger control filing to the SAMR, suggesting it is making a step ahead in meeting the pre-conditions.
- The use of onshore bank loans and cash balance as a refinancing source and consideration payment will lower financing costs, boosting the value of ENN Natural Gas H-share.
- The current share price is 9.3 and 17.7% below the low-bound and high-bound of our estimated value range. It is also less vulnerable to the current tariff war.
Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
- In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: MGM China, Adani Ports
- In the US last Thursday, March housing starts came in below estimates at negative 11.4% m-o-m (-5.4% e / 9.8% revised p) to an annualised 1.32 mn units (1.42 mn e / 1.49 mn revised p), amid high inventory levels and uncertainty over building-material costs.
- That said, building permits rose 1.6% m-o-m (-0.6% e / -1.0% p) to an annualised 1.48 mn units (1.45 mn e / 1.46 mn p).
Shandong Fengxiang (9977.HK) Privatization – Long-Term Investors May Be Unhappy with the Offer Price
- Based on our forecast, growth may be under pressure in 2025, but would recover in 2026/2027.The Cancellation Price is attractive for investors who want to cash out in short term.
- Some long-term investors may hope to see an improvement in Fengxiang’s fundementals and long-term performance after PAG/Abu Dhabi Investment step in. Their attitude may bring uncertainties to the privatization.
- The business logic of PAG is not a simple financial investment, but a higher pursuit. Fengxiang is a high-quality asset for PAG.Share Alternative Offer could help increase the success rate
Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (April 14 – 17): Broader Participation, Softer Vols
- A noticeable shift in tone this week, with participation broadening and price action turning constructive.
- Implied vols declined across most names, unwinding last week’s spike but still sitting above historical medians.
- Call activity bounced back, and the Put/Call ratio suggestive of less defensiveactivity.
Asia Real Estate Tracker (21-Apr-2025): Mapletree sells Scotland student housing.
- Mapletree, a real estate firm, has sold Scottish student housing to a Dutch fund manager, expanding its international portfolio.
- Shanghai office rents have decreased for the 12th consecutive quarter, reflecting a downward trend in the local real estate market.
- Central Tokyo office rents have increased due to rising construction costs, impacting rates for new supply and attracting investor interest.
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