In today’s briefing:
- CSI500/1000 Index Rebalance Preview: Adds Outperform Deletes Early On, Then Hit a Wall
- Quiddity Leaderboard HSTECH Dec25: AAC Tech up 9% Vs Peer; ~US$1.9bn One-Way; Announcement Soon
- CNGR A/H Listing: Healthy A/H Premium and Cheap Valuation
- CSI 300 (SHSZ300) Tactical Outlook Ahead of December Rebalance
- CSI All Share Semiconductor Index Rebalance Preview: Adds Starting to Outperform
- Quiddity Leaderboard HSIII Dec25/Mar26: One Change for Dec25; New Expected ADD/DELs for Mar26
- CNGR Advanced Material H Share Listing (2579 HK): Valuation Insights
- Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Dec25: Three Index Change Possible; ~US$264mn One-Way; Announcement Soon
- SHEIN Update: US$2 Bn Net, “Mid-Teens” Revenue Growth Targets Shared | New Challenges in France?
- A/H Premium Tracker (Week to 7 Nov 2025): Beautiful Skew Behaving Badly, CNOOC Better
CSI500/1000 Index Rebalance Preview: Adds Outperform Deletes Early On, Then Hit a Wall
- With the review period complete, we forecast 50 changes for the CSI Smallcap 500 Index and 100 changes for the CSI 1000 Index at the December rebalance.
- We estimate a one-way turnover of 10.15% for the CSI Smallcap 500 Index and 10.22% for the CSI1000 Index. Gross round-trip trade across both indices is CNY 73.4bn (US$10.3bn).
- The outright forecast adds have outperformed the outright forecast deletes over the last 6 months with most of the outperformance coming between June and August.
Quiddity Leaderboard HSTECH Dec25: AAC Tech up 9% Vs Peer; ~US$1.9bn One-Way; Announcement Soon
- The HSTECH Index tracks the performance of the top 30 technology companies listed in Hong Kong that have high business exposure to certain technology themes.
- The official index changes and indicative weights for the December 2025 index rebal event will be announced publicly after the close on Friday 21st November 2025.
- We continue to expect one index change for December 2025 and we estimate there to be capping flows of ~US$1.9bn one-way.
CNGR A/H Listing: Healthy A/H Premium and Cheap Valuation
- CNGR Advanced Material (300919 CH) is looking to raise up to US$500m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
- CNGR is a Chinese battery-component producer and a new energy materials company. It is the global leader of nickel-based and cobalt-based pCAM (cathode) for lithium-ion batteries.
- In this note, we examine the IPO dynamics, and look at the firm’s valuation.
CSI 300 (SHSZ300) Tactical Outlook Ahead of December Rebalance
- As Brian Freitas recently outlined: the CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300) will undergo its semi-annual review by the end of November 2025, there could be profit-taking as we near that date.
- In our previous insight we flagged potential downside tail risk. While the index hasn’t fallen since our warning, this doesn’t mean the risk has dissipated.
- Our profit target model (the “go SHORT” model) is showing a rare pattern with very few rallies, severely limited upside (less than 1.5%) and an 80% reversal probability.Bearish.
CSI All Share Semiconductor Index Rebalance Preview: Adds Starting to Outperform
- The review period for the December rebalance of the CSI All Share Semiconductor Index ended 31 October. The changes should be announced on 28 November and implemented on 12 December.
- We forecast 3 adds and 6 deletes for the index with a one-way turnover of 1.4% and a round-trip trade of CNY 609m (US$85m).
- The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last few weeks and stocks that have same-way flows from other index trackers could exhibit higher volatility near-term.
Quiddity Leaderboard HSIII Dec25/Mar26: One Change for Dec25; New Expected ADD/DELs for Mar26
- The Hang Seng Internet & IT (HSIII) index represents the top 30 stocks related to internet and information technology businesses listed in Hong Kong (HKEX).
- We expect one index change in December 2025 translating to capping flows of US$530mn one-way.
- We also expect seven index changes for the next semiannual index review which will take place in March 2026.
CNGR Advanced Material H Share Listing (2579 HK): Valuation Insights
- CNGR Advanced Material (2579 HK), a new energy materials company, has launched an H Share listing to raise US$507 million.
- I discussed the H Share listing in CNGR Advanced Material H Share Listing: The Investment Case.
- The proposed AH discount range of 36.9% to 29.9% (based on the 7 November A Share price) is attractive, and I would participate in the H Share listing.
Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Dec25: Three Index Change Possible; ~US$264mn One-Way; Announcement Soon
- The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of the top 50 “Mainland China” securities listed in Hong Kong.
- The official index changes and indicative weights for the December 2025 index rebal event will be announced publicly after the close on Friday 21st November 2025.
- We continue to expect three index changes for December 2025 and we estimate there to be capping flows of US$264mn one-way.
SHEIN Update: US$2 Bn Net, “Mid-Teens” Revenue Growth Targets Shared | New Challenges in France?
- Reportedly, SHEN recently shared FY25 targets of US$2 bn Net, “mid-teens” sales growth
- SHEIN faces familiar issues in France, where the company has just opened a physical store
- The release of new FY25 financial targets suggest SHEIN is progressing towards an IPO
A/H Premium Tracker (Week to 7 Nov 2025): Beautiful Skew Behaving Badly, CNOOC Better
- Beautiful Skew still AWOL/MIA. The wider the spread, the worse the result.
- Large SOE H vs A generally strong. Strong net inflow into SOE Hs via SOUTHBOUND.
- The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Pairs Monitor are both there – free – for all SK readers.
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