In today’s briefing:
- Jilin Jiutai Bank (6122 HK): Another Hobson’s Choice
- Lens Technology IPO Preview
- Beijing Geek IPO: Not Worth It
- Lens Technology IPO (Hong Kong) Valuation Analysis
- Lepu Biopharma (2157 HK): Placing Shares As ADC Pipeline Products Entering Harvesting Stage
- Coosea Smart Technology Co., Ltd. Pre-IPO Tearsheet
- [IO Technicals 2025/27] Bullish Momentum Gains Traction
- Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (June 30 – July 04): Narrowing Breadth and Rising Put Activity
- Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
Jilin Jiutai Bank (6122 HK): Another Hobson’s Choice
- After Jilin Jiutai Bank (6122 HK) was suspended, again, I mused in Jilin Jiutai Bank (6122 HK): Now Is The Time To Be Delisted an expected Offer from Jilin Province Trust.
- Jilin Province has now made a voluntary Offer at HK$0.70/share (~0.2x P/B!), below my HK$0.80/share estimate. Apart from a Scheme-like vote, this Offer has an onerous 90% acceptance condition.
- And IF the Offer fails and IF Jilin Jiutai cannot resume trading, in accordance with Rule 6.01A(2)(b) of the Listing Rules, Jilin Jiutai may be delisted.
Lens Technology IPO Preview
- Lens Technology is getting ready to complete its IPO in Hong Kong. Lens Technology is planning to raise as much as HK$4.77 billion (US$608 million) in this IPO.
- If the offer size adjustment and overallotment options are exercised, the IPO gross proceeds could increase to HK$6.3 billion (US$803 million).
- In 2024, the company held a 13% share of the global market for precision structural parts and modules for consumer electronics and a 20.9% share of smart vehicle interaction systems.
Beijing Geek IPO: Not Worth It
- Chinese Autonomous Mobile Robotics player, Geekplus Technology (2590 HK) plans to raise US$300m through its HKEx IPO at a valuation of around US$2.5bn.
- Top line growth has slowed down while there also has been a decline in the no. of newly acquired customers. Exports to US accounts for a significant share of revenues.
- Our valuation analysis suggests that the company’s IPO is significantly overvalued compared to global robotic players.
Lens Technology IPO (Hong Kong) Valuation Analysis
- Our base case valuation of Lens Technology is market cap of 146 billion CNY based on P/E of 24.9x our estimated net profit of 5.8 billion CNY in 2026.
- The company’s current market cap is 120.7 billion CNY. Thus, our base case valuation represents a 21% upside from current levels.
- Lens Technology is well positioned to be one of the first companies to undertake large-scale production of key components and complete device assembly for humanoid robots and AI glasses.
Lepu Biopharma (2157 HK): Placing Shares As ADC Pipeline Products Entering Harvesting Stage
- Lepu Biopharma (2157 HK) is placing 93.8M shares at the placing price of HK$5.02 per H Share. The net proceeds from the placing are expected to be approximately HK$463M.
- The company intends to use the proceeds for conducting clinical trial, commercialization, and marketing of the core products, and to fund R&D of new products.
- Lepu ended 2024 with a cash balance of RMB401M, which has been augmented by the upfront payment from recent BD deal. The company need not raise fund in near-term.
Coosea Smart Technology Co., Ltd. Pre-IPO Tearsheet
- Coosea Smart Technology Co., Ltd. (CST) is looking to raise about US$100m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The deal will be run by Citic.
- According to Frost & Sullivan, in 2024, CST was the world’s second largest end-to-end solution provider for local smartphone brands by shipment volume, and rose to first place in 1Q25.
- During the Track Record Period, CST generated revenue from over 70 countries or regions, mainly focusing on Asia and Americas.
[IO Technicals 2025/27] Bullish Momentum Gains Traction
- Reduced shipments and increased hot metal output buoyed iron ore prices. However, long-term demand faces pressure from Chinese steel stagnation and looming supply from Simandou.
- Analysts foresee a balanced iron ore market in 2025, but warn that trade tensions and shifting Chinese policies could undermine demand and price stability.
- Prices are trading above short-term moving averages, suggesting ongoing upside momentum, while the MACD above its signal line confirms the prevailing bullish trend.
Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (June 30 – July 04): Narrowing Breadth and Rising Put Activity
- Hong Kong single stocks traded lower in a holiday-shortened week.
- Breadth pulled back sharply from the previous week’s extremes and Put activity picked up noticeably across single stock options.
- Intervention in HKD continues to ramp steadily higher with HKD bumping along top of the range.
Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
- Treasury yields jumped yesterday, led by the short-end, as a stronger than expected nonfarm payrolls report drove traders to exit bets on a July rate cut.
- As of yesterday, Fed-dated OIS were pricing in an almost zero chance of a rate decrease in July, along with 51 bps of cuts by year-end (vs. 65 bps as of Wednesday).
- The yield on the 2Y UST rose 10 bps to 3.88%, while the yield on the 10Y UST was up 7 bps at 4.35%.
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