In today’s briefing:
- Smart Share (EM US): On Stonewalling Hillhouse’s Offer
- Oriental Watch (398 HK) H1 FY26: Maintaining A 12% Yield With 60% Of Market Cap In Cash
- JD.com (9618 HK / JD US): Top Option Trades Reveal Strong Bearish Sentiment
- Sa Sa Intl (178 HK): Positive Trend Beyond the Results
- Axbio (安序源) Pre-IPO: Structural Challenges
- ZTO Express Q325 Results | Revenue, ASPs Both Up Y/Y | But Earnings, Margins Both Down | AVOID
- Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
- RERE: 3Q25 Earnings
Smart Share (EM US): On Stonewalling Hillhouse’s Offer
- After seven months had elapsed since receiving a preliminary non-binding proposal, Smart Share Global (EM US) announced on the 1st August a firm Offer (an MBO) had been entered into.
- The Offeror consortium, led by Mars Guangyuan Cai, Chairman and CEO, is offering US$1.25/ADS, a 74.8% premium to last close; but ~20% below net cash + short-term investments.
- Hillhouse upped the ante with a US$1.77/ADS NBIO. The share price hasn’t closed below US$1.25/share since; but the reason may not just hinge on Hillhouse firming its Offer.
Oriental Watch (398 HK) H1 FY26: Maintaining A 12% Yield With 60% Of Market Cap In Cash
- Oriental Watch (398 HK) maintained its dividend yield of ~12% (annualized), declaring 20.8 HKD cents of dividend for H1FY26. Cash and Investments were ~ HKD1 billion (60% of market cap).
- The company highlighted that the environment is challenging, given trade wars and tempered HK/Chinese demand. On our conservative numbers, the stock trades at 8.6x FY26PE.
- Oriental Watch (398 HK) will maintain its high dividend payout ratio of ~100%. Over the past 8 years, the company paid dividends of 3.8 HKD/share (> the current share price).
JD.com (9618 HK / JD US): Top Option Trades Reveal Strong Bearish Sentiment
- Context: Over the past few trading days, JD.com (9618 HK) multi-leg option strategies showcased a variety of approaches. Strategy highlights are provided.
- Highlights: Strategies tend to have a short-term horizon, with approximately 40% of all strategies employing weekly options. Bearish views dominate with almost 70% of strategies being put spreads.
- Why read: This Insight breaks down complex option strategies and sheds light on market sentiment and positioning. Detailed examples provide actionable insights that could inspire similar strategies,
Sa Sa Intl (178 HK): Positive Trend Beyond the Results
- Sa Sa International Hldgs (178 HK)‘s 1H FY25/26 profit came in at the top-end of the guidance. Its 3Q sales growth has so far increased 11.3%, a further acceleration.
- Hong Kong and Macau should capture some of the diverted traffic as Sino-Japanese relations soured, while a weaker USD, as rates are cut, should make shopping cheaper.
- With its ROE reaching 10-13% in FY26-28F (the best ones since FY21), its 5-year-low P/B multiple makes the stock a bargain.
Axbio (安序源) Pre-IPO: Structural Challenges
- Axbio, a China-based technology company, is looking to raise at least USD 100 million via a Hong Kong listing. CICC and SPDB are the joint sponsors.
- In our previous note, we look at the products and management team briefly. Although there are interesting takes from the prospectus, we are not convinced about its prospects.
- In this note, we took a further look and are of the view that the company is behind the curve of competition despite its incremental innovation in PCR-microarray.
ZTO Express Q325 Results | Revenue, ASPs Both Up Y/Y | But Earnings, Margins Both Down | AVOID
- ZTO Express reported another set of weak results after the US close on November 19
- Although Q3 unit prices rose slightly, unit costs increased by much more, crushing margins
- On both sides of the price-volume tradeoff, ZTO continues to lose profitability | AVOID
Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
- In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Lenovo
- UST yields rose 2-3 bps across the curve yesterday, as the release of hawkish-leaning October Fed meeting minutes cast doubts over a rate cut in December.
- This was despite a solid auction of 20Y notes. Yields on USTs rose 2 bps each, to 3.59% for the 2Y and 4.14% for the 10Y. Equities halted a four-day slide, after Nvidia reported solid Q3/25-26 results and gave a strong revenue forecast. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq climbed 0.4% and 0.6% to 6,642 and 22,564, respectively.
RERE: 3Q25 Earnings
- Key 3Q25 takeaways include: 1) trade-in scenarios remain a key driver of transaction volume growth, with building demand for RERE’s programs given rising prices for new devices, as well as the company’s focus on optimizing pricing, elevating user experiences, and stepped-up branding initiatives 2) in addition to the company’s door-to-door fulfillment capabilities, RERE’s growing network of AHS stores continues to drive enhanced accessibility and more favorable economics, with 1,000+ locations now offering multi-category recycling services and 3) a key priority for senior management remains building the AHS brand to raise customer awareness, enhance loyalty, and support engagement, with specific initiatives including partnering with consumer brands and deepening community relationships to position AHS as the leading recycling ecosystem.
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