In today’s briefing:
- We Doctor Holdings IPO Preview: Explosive Growth and Narrowing Losses, The Right Time for an IPO
- STAR 100: Quick Update to Expectations for Last-Minute Methodology Changes; Announcement Soon.
- [Li Auto Inc. (LI US, SELL, TP US$25) Target Price Change]: Three BEV SUV Exposed Ahead of Schedule
- We Doctor Holdings IPO: Some Thoughts on IPO Valuation Target Ahead of the Offering
- Trip.com (TCOM) – Worth a Little More than EXPE or Much More?
- Li Auto (2015 HK): Short Calls To Capitalize on High Volatility Amid Cautious Outlook
- Asia Real Estate Tracker (27-Feb-2025): Hotel Indigo Auckland for Sale – McVay & Whillans Realty.
- Visen Pharmaceuticals (维升药业) IPO: PHIP Updates Don’t Look Positive
We Doctor Holdings IPO Preview: Explosive Growth and Narrowing Losses, The Right Time for an IPO
- We Doctor Holdings, a top-tier provider of AI-enabled medical services and digital platform which connects hospitals, doctors, and pharmacies, plans to go public in Hong Kong.
- We Doctor Holdings has raised ~$1.5B to date from investors, including Tencent, 5Y Capital, Goldman Sachs, Hillhouse Capital, AIA, and Qiming Venture Partners, among others.
- The Hangzhou-based healthtech company has delivered explosive revenue growth of 107% y/y for the six months ended Jun-24.
STAR 100: Quick Update to Expectations for Last-Minute Methodology Changes; Announcement Soon.
- STAR 100 index tracks the next 100 names (51st-150th ranks) and it represents the mid-cap segment of the STAR market.
- The methodology for constituent selection for this index was revised yesterday. These revisions will influence the ADDs/DELs for the March 2025 review which is to be announced soon.
- In this insight, we have presented our updated expectations for the new methodology.
[Li Auto Inc. (LI US, SELL, TP US$25) Target Price Change]: Three BEV SUV Exposed Ahead of Schedule
- Li Auto’s (LI) share surged 13% on photos released on its official Weibo of a BEV SUV slated for release in April, two months ahead of our expectation.
- Based on information released, we dialed up LI’s BEV forecast from 73K to 106K for 2025, contributing 20% of revenue instead of 15%.
- We raise LI’s TP from US$22 to US$25 but keep at SELL.
We Doctor Holdings IPO: Some Thoughts on IPO Valuation Target Ahead of the Offering
- According to PHIP and Crunchbase, We Doctor’s most recently reported valuation was a ~$411M Series F led by HongShan Capital and Millennium Management at a ~$6.7B post-money valuation.
- My ballpark estimates suggest that IPO valuation target may be below last round valuation. However, I do not expect a significant discount to Series F post-money valuation of ~$6.7B.
- I think investors will ask what is the revenue growth trajectory ahead (FY25-FY28) and why gross profit margins can’t be higher? What is the path to positive free cash flow?
Trip.com (TCOM) – Worth a Little More than EXPE or Much More?
- This will be another quick idea flag and different from the typical cheapish-catalyst type situations I have often written about.
- This is a superb business that I’ve been monitoring for awhile that just saw some nasty correction.
- I’ve been tweeting incessantly about this business, and shares finally collapsed yesterday despite a relatively good earnings report.
Li Auto (2015 HK): Short Calls To Capitalize on High Volatility Amid Cautious Outlook
- Li Auto (2015 HK) has surged recently due to the announcement of its new Li i8 model, accompanied by a significant rise in implied volatility.
- The elevated implied volatility, with one- and two-month levels above the 90th and 80th percentiles respectively, presents an opportunity for bearish and neutral investors to sell call options.
- March and April expirations are preferred due to the earnings release in May.
Asia Real Estate Tracker (27-Feb-2025): Hotel Indigo Auckland for Sale – McVay & Whillans Realty.
- Hotel Indigo Auckland is up for sale by McVay Real Estate and Whillans Realty Group, offering a prime investment opportunity.
- CDL Chairman accuses son of attempted coup, but Kwek remains CEO, ensuring stability within the company’s leadership.
- Mapletree makes a strategic move by buying a Hong Kong site for $473M at a significant discount, positioning itself for future growth.
Visen Pharmaceuticals (维升药业) IPO: PHIP Updates Don’t Look Positive
- Visen Pharmaceuticals is looking at raising up to USD 300m to list in Hong Kong.
- The company has passed the hearing for the listing and filed a new version of the prospectus.
- We look at the difference between previous filing and current filing. Most of the changes are not critical but we think overall it doesn’t look good.
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