In today’s briefing:
- HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII, HSBIO Index Rebalance: US$6.4bn of Flows Post Capping (Dec 2025)
- ANE Cayman (9956 HK): Q&A With The FA
- PC Partner: Delisting in HK on 14 January 2026, Only on SGX Going Forward
- Quiddity ChiNext & ChiNext 50 Dec25 Results: ~US$1.5bn Combined One-Way Flow; Multiple Surprises
- 3SBio (1530 HK) Placement: 3SBio’s Pipeline Strength, An Indirect Stake in Mandi Makes It Attractive
- Policy Whispers Offer Relief, but Structural Damage Points to Iron Ore Headwinds
- Macro Monthly (December): Seasonal Strength, Vol Selling Edges and a Notable Nifty Setup
- Mao Geping IPO Lockup – US$4.7bn Lockup Release for Founders and Pre-IPO Investors
- Shanghai Bao Pharmaceuticals IPO: Niche Drug Candidates Entail Long-Term Growth Prospect
- Pre-IPO Mandi Inc. – The Business Model, the Concerns and the Valuation
HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII, HSBIO Index Rebalance: US$6.4bn of Flows Post Capping (Dec 2025)
- The December rebalance of the Hang Seng family of indices will use today’s closing prices to cap the index constituent weights.
- The net round-trip trade across all stocks across the five indices is estimated at HK$50bn (US$6.4bn). There is size to trade in a lot of stocks.
- Xiaomi (1810 HK) is the biggest buy due to HSIII Index inclusion and capping, while Alibaba (9988 HK) is the biggest capping sell.
ANE Cayman (9956 HK): Q&A With The FA
- On the 28th October, ANE Cayman Inc (9956 HK), a road freight transportation play, announced a Scheme from Centurium Partners, a pre-IPO investor, Temasek, and Singapore-based asset manager True Light.
- The consortium offered HK$12.18/share, a 48.54% premium to undisturbed. A special dividend was bolted on. All pre-cons, including SAMR’s approval, have been satisfied. Scheme Doc dispatch expected on/before 31st December.
- I had a number of questions concerning the transaction, and yesterday pinned down a one-on-one with the FA to the Offeror.
PC Partner: Delisting in HK on 14 January 2026, Only on SGX Going Forward
- PC Partner (1263 HK) announced it was completing its delisting from HK and moving to Singapore
- The move to Singapore was a “life or death” situation for the company, as staying in HK precluded it from having access to Nvidia’s latest chips
- 2026 will be a crucial year to determine PC Partner’s future outlook
Quiddity ChiNext & ChiNext 50 Dec25 Results: ~US$1.5bn Combined One-Way Flow; Multiple Surprises
- The June 2025 index review results for the ChiNext and ChiNext 50 indices were announced after market close on Friday 28th November 2025.
- There will be eight changes for the ChiNext index and five changes for the ChiNext 50 index.
- The ChiNext and ChiNext 50 index rebal events could trigger US$1.1bn and US$379mn in one-way flows respectively.
3SBio (1530 HK) Placement: 3SBio’s Pipeline Strength, An Indirect Stake in Mandi Makes It Attractive
- 3SBio Inc (1530 HK) announced the placement of 105.2M shares for subscription at HK$29.62 per share.
- The company intends to use 80% of the net proceeds for R&D-related expenditures on innovative drug candidates and the rest 20% for working capital and other general corporate purpose.
- The placement provides an indirect way of subscribing to Mandi shares. We reiterate our bullish stance on 3SBio with a 25-30% upside scope in the near term.
Policy Whispers Offer Relief, but Structural Damage Points to Iron Ore Headwinds
- Vanke’s surprise bond delay sent markets into a tailspin, reviving fears of deeper systemic risk given its size and reputation.
- Manufacturing softness and rising port inventories indicate weakening hot metal production, signalling renewed downside risks for iron ore.
- Any near-term support from stimulus chatter is likely outweighed by fading demand fundamentals and persistent sector-wide confidence erosion.
Macro Monthly (December): Seasonal Strength, Vol Selling Edges and a Notable Nifty Setup
- December seasonals across major markets show a generally positive profile, but the path is uneven, with most gains clustering in the final days of the month.
- Several markets offer appealing vol selling setups, particularly those with consistently positive December vol premiums and elevated implied levels relative to past outcomes.
- Nifty vol appears attractively priced, but its tendency not to monetize in December requires traders to think differently about how they extract value.
Mao Geping IPO Lockup – US$4.7bn Lockup Release for Founders and Pre-IPO Investors
- Mao Geping Cosmetics (1318 HK) raised around US$345m in its Hong Kong IPO. The lockup on its founders and pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.
- Mao Geping Cosmetics (MGC) operates in the premium beauty segment. Via its two brands, MAOGEPING and Love Keeps, the firm offers a wide range of Color cosmetics and Skincare products.
- In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.
Shanghai Bao Pharmaceuticals IPO: Niche Drug Candidates Entail Long-Term Growth Prospect
- Shanghai Bao Pharmaceuticals has launched HK IPO to raise ~$128M by offering~38M H shares at HK$26.38 per share. Subscriptions will close on December 5, with expected listing on December 10.
- The company intends to use the IPO proceeds for R&D and commercialization of core products, advancement of other existing pipeline assets, enhance and scale up manufacturing capabilities.
- Core products of Bao Pharmaceutical are differentiated and niche, thereby limiting competition threat. These products have demonstrated superior efficacy and safety in clinical trials and targets sizable patient population.
Pre-IPO Mandi Inc. – The Business Model, the Concerns and the Valuation
- Mandi’s business is quite focused. In the short-term, Minoxidil will continue to be the main performance driver for Mandi. The performance contribution of Winlevi and Mandi’s semaglutide would be uncertain.
- The concern here is the declining growth rate due to VBP and increasing competition. Based on our forecast, growth of the next three years would be maintained at 15-20% YoY.
- An aggressive valuation range for Mandi is RMB34-43 billion. However, due to VBP/increasing competition, a relatively conservative P/S range is 10-20x. If based on 2025 forecast, valuation is RMB17.2-34.3 billion.
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