In today’s briefing:
- HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: 3 Changes as Adds Go Up, Up & Away
- Quiddity Leaderboard ChiNext & ChiNext 50 Dec25: Final Expectations; US$1bn+ Combined One-Way Flows
- A/H Premium Tracker (Week to 31 Oct 2025): Beautiful Skew Behaving Badly But RMB Counters Approach
- Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/500 Dec25: Final Expectations; Huge Flows
- Pop Mart (9992 HK) 25Q3 – The Decline in Stock Prices May Not Have Ended Yet
- CNGR Advanced Material H Share Listing: The Investment Case
- JD Industrials Pre-IPO – Re-Refiling Updates – More Hits than Misses
- Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: 3 Changes as Adds Go Up, Up & Away
- There could be 3 changes for the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) in December. Announcement is on 21 November with implementation at the close on 5 December.
- The forecast adds have moved higher over the last few months and handily outperformed the forecast deletes and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX).
- There has been aggressive short covering in the forecast adds and there could be more in stocks where short interest is still a high percentage of float.
Quiddity Leaderboard ChiNext & ChiNext 50 Dec25: Final Expectations; US$1bn+ Combined One-Way Flows
- The ChiNext index represents the performance of the 100 largest and most liquid A-share stocks listed on the ChiNext Market of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange.
- The ChiNext 50 index is a subset of the ChiNext Index and it consists of the top 50 names in the ChiNext index with the highest daily average turnover.
- In this insight, we have presented our final expectations for ADDs and DELs for the upcoming December 2025 index rebal event. 11 ADDs, 11 DELs, $2.3bn to trade.
A/H Premium Tracker (Week to 31 Oct 2025): Beautiful Skew Behaving Badly But RMB Counters Approach
- Big Beautiful Skew was again a no-show. But the SFC’s expectation of dual counter eligibility for Connect by year-end approaches its endgame.
- The GAC (2238 HK) reco 2wks ago worked well. One extra week was bad. Last week’s reco on CNOOC Ltd (883 HK) was a disaster. H underperformed A by 8.4%.
- The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Pairs Monitor are both there – free – for all SK readers.
Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/500 Dec25: Final Expectations; Huge Flows
- CSI 300 represents the 300 largest stocks by market cap and liquidity from the Shanghai and Shenzhen Exchanges. CSI 500 is the next 500 names.
- In this insight, we have presented our final expectations for ADDs and DELs for the upcoming semiannual index rebal event in December 2025.
- We expect 11 ADDs/DELs for the CSI 300 index and 50 ADDs/DELs for the CSI 500 index during this index review based on the latest available data. US$11bn total flows.
Pop Mart (9992 HK) 25Q3 – The Decline in Stock Prices May Not Have Ended Yet
- Pop Mart’s 25Q3 results beat expectations, mainly driven by high growth of revenue attributed from operations overseas. The “online + offline + overseas” three-wheel drive strategy has achieved remarkable performance.
- However, the market has expressed concerns over the IP life cycle and performance sustainability of Pop Mart through the decline in its stock price, which may not have ended yet.
- There are no signs that new products can catch up with LABUBU. Once market sentiment reverses, it will affect Pop Mart’s valuation outlook. 30-35x P/E is a more comfortable range.
CNGR Advanced Material H Share Listing: The Investment Case
- CNGR Advanced Material (300919 CH), a new energy materials company, has filed its PHIP for an H Share listing to raise US$700 million.
- CNGR ranked first globally in 2024 in terms of sales value for all cathode active material precursors (pCAM) products, with a market share of 21.8%.
- The fundamentals are solid, with good growth, a relatively stable margin profile, declining cash burn, manageable leverage, and an undemanding valuation.
JD Industrials Pre-IPO – Re-Refiling Updates – More Hits than Misses
- JD Industrial is now looking to raise about US$500m, down from earlier reported US$1bn, in its upcoming HK IPO.
- JDI is a leading industrial supply chain technology and service provider in China in terms of GMV in each year during the Track Record Period, according to CIC.
- We have looked at the company background and provided our initial thoughts on valuations in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the refiling updates.
Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
- Front-end UST yields declined on Friday, unwinding part of the jump in yields following the FOMC rate decision on Wednesday.
- The yield on the 2Y UST fell 4 bps to 3.57%, while the yield on the 10Y UST was down 2 bps at 4.08%. Equities climbed, supported by optimism over corporate earnings.
- The S&P 500 gained 0.3% to 6,840, while the Nasdaq rose 0.6% to 23,725.
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