In today’s briefing:
- Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) Dec Rebalance: 5 Adds and US$8.8bn Trade; Zijin Gold Added
- 2026 High Conviction: Sell Pop Mart Intl (9992 HK)
- Hang Seng (11 HK): 8th Jan Vote On HSBC’s Offer. Clean Deal.
- A/H Premium Tracker (Wk to 12 Dec 2025): Hs Underperform, Beautiful Skew Behaves, Utilities Bought
- HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (Wk To 12 Dec 2025) – Lower Activity, Net Sell This Week,
- BenQ BM IPO: Competition Driven Sluggishness, Margin Pressure Make the Issue Unattractive
- Pre-IPO Yeeper Nutrition Technology (Qingdao) Group – Concerns About the Business and the Outlook
Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) Dec Rebalance: 5 Adds and US$8.8bn Trade; Zijin Gold Added
- There are 5 additions for the VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) in December. Zijin Gold (2259 HK) is a surprise add (as are some of the others).
- Estimated one-way turnover is 15.2% and that leads to a round-trip trade of US$8.8bn. There are many stocks with multiple days of ADV to trade from passive trackers.
- The MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index has just passed its earlier highs, but a lot of the adds have broken out and are trading much higher than their prior highs.
2026 High Conviction: Sell Pop Mart Intl (9992 HK)
- Peak IP momentum risk: Labubu (~23% of revenue) shows fading hype, with resale prices and ex-China search interest normalizing, raising risk of faster-than-expected growth deceleration in 2026.
- IP concentration and gap: No other IP has demonstrated Labubu-like scaling, increasing risk of an IP digestion period. Overseas expansion matures and supply normalization caps incremental demand.
- Valuation/Expectations mismatch: At 14x 2026E P/E, valuation assumes durable IP growth; TP at HKD 100 to 105 with downgrade risk in 2H26.
Hang Seng (11 HK): 8th Jan Vote On HSBC’s Offer. Clean Deal.
- Back on the 9th October, Hang Seng Bank (11 HK) announced an Offer from controlling parent, HSBC Holdings (5 HK), by way of a Scheme.
- HSBC offered HK$155/share, a 30.3% premium to last close. The price was final. A third interim dividend was bolted on. Optically – and fundamentally – the price was bang on.
- The Scheme Doc is now out, with the Court Meeting on the 8th January 2026. Payment around 4th Feb. The IFA, in a bare-bones report, concluded “fair & reasonable”.
A/H Premium Tracker (Wk to 12 Dec 2025): Hs Underperform, Beautiful Skew Behaves, Utilities Bought
- Hs within the liquid AH pair universe UNDER-performed As on average by 0.78% on A-share index rebal week. Beautiful Skew behaved better. H Utilities were bought.
- Quiddity H/A Portfolio performance slightly positive (+23bp). Stay the Beautiful Skew course.
- The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The Southbound Flow Monitor and AH Pairs Monitor are both there – free for all SK readers.
HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (Wk To 12 Dec 2025) – Lower Activity, Net Sell This Week,
- HK$77bn/Day of gross SOUTHBOUND activity last week vs HK$88bn the week before, HK$100+bn the week before. Gross flows are winding down.
- Watch for news on the Dual Counter (RMB) Trading eligibility for SOUTHBOUND near-term. That could re-up the pace. The SFC expected it “soon” in July. Later, by year-end.
- The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The Southbound Flow Monitor and AH Pairs Monitor are both there – free – for all SK readers.
BenQ BM IPO: Competition Driven Sluggishness, Margin Pressure Make the Issue Unattractive
- BenQ BM launched its Hongkong IPO aiming to raise up to HK$783M. The company plans to sell 67M shares at a price band of HK$ 9.34-HK$ 11.68 per share.
- Proceeds to be used for expansion and upgradation of existing hospitals, for mergers and acquisitions opportunities and for general corporate purposes and working capital needs.
- Amid sluggish sales and margin pressure, we think that the BenQ BM issue is overvalued and investors can comfortably avoid subscribing to the offer.
Pre-IPO Yeeper Nutrition Technology (Qingdao) Group – Concerns About the Business and the Outlook
- Many companies enter the goat/sheep milk powder market due to higher gross margin than cow milk powder, but after years of development, this market has been in a shrinking trend.
- With a closed-loop capability in full internal control, production and supply of core ingredients of demineralized goat and sheep whey, Yeeper has supply chain advantage, thus with higher pricing power.
- Yeeper’ has shown the characteristics of “slowing revenue growth, and increasing pressure on net profit margin” due to intensified competition. Valuation could be lower than Yili but higher than China Feihe.
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