In today’s briefing:
- Genting Malaysia (GENM MK): Genting’s Conditional Voluntary Offer at RM2.35
- Value Partners: Supports Samyang Holdings’ Equity Spin-Off Plan But Must Cancel Treasury Shares
- BYD (1211 HK): Sep Sales Down 1st Time, Margin to Be Up in 2026 – Stock Overvalued
- Genting Malaysia (GENM MK): Genting (GENT MK)’s Curious Offer
- Top Toy IPO Preview
- Lennar’s MRP Split-Off: Key Considerations, Risks, and Strategies for Odd-Lot and Hedged Positions
- A/H Premium Tracker (2 Wks to 10 Oct 2025): Beautiful Skew But Trade Tantrums Again
- LG Electronics India IPO : Strong Debut Expected. Market Cap May Top Parent’s
- BYD (1211 HK) Tactical Outlook: Bottoming, But Wait to Buy The Dips…
- HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (2wks To 10 Oct 2025); Big Pre/Post Holiday Flows. NB 2x as Big.
Genting Malaysia (GENM MK): Genting’s Conditional Voluntary Offer at RM2.35
- Genting Malaysia (GENM MK) disclosed a conditional voluntary offer from Genting Bhd (GENT MK) at RM2.35, a 9.8% premium to the last close price of RM2.14.
- The 50% minimum acceptance condition is easily met as Genting is the largest shareholder, representing 49.36% of outstanding shares.
- Genting’s preferred endgame is to delist GENM, thereby fully benefiting if GENM successfully bids for a downstate New York casino licence. Therefore, there is a good chance of a bump.
Value Partners: Supports Samyang Holdings’ Equity Spin-Off Plan But Must Cancel Treasury Shares
- On 13 October, Value Partners has come out in support of Samyang Holdings (000070 KS)’s equity spin-off plan but on the condition that the company must cancel its treasury shares.
- Value Partners believes Samyang Holdings is currently severely undervalued, trading at a P/B of 0.34x. A shareholders meeting for Samyang Holdings is scheduled for 14 October.
- We have a positive view of this equity spin-off. Our NAV valuation of Samyang Holdings suggests an implied price per share of 127,138 won (28.6% higher than current price).
BYD (1211 HK): Sep Sales Down 1st Time, Margin to Be Up in 2026 – Stock Overvalued
- BYD’s monthly sales volume decreased YoY for the first time in September.
- We expect the revenue growth rate will slow down to 16%, but op margin will rise in 2026.
- We believe the stock price is overvalued, whether measured by time-series or cross-sectional methods.
Genting Malaysia (GENM MK): Genting (GENT MK)’s Curious Offer
- Genting Malaysia (GENM MK), the owner of Resort World Genting, has announced a conditional offer from controlling parent Genting Bhd (GENT MK).
- GENT is offering RM2.35/share, an uninspiring 9.81% premium to last close, for the 50.64% of shares out not held. The Offer has a 50% acceptance threshold.
- GENT already consolidates GENM (AFAIK). At this price, compulsory acquisition won’t be afforded (you’d think). GENT should have launched the Offer back in April when the share price was floundering.
Top Toy IPO Preview
- Top Toy International is getting ready to complete its IPO in Hong Kong in the next several months.
- Top Toy was last valued at US$1.3 billion in July 2025 when it received a US$59.4 million Series A financing (of which Temasek contributed US$40 million for a 3.2% stake).
- Top Toy is trading at P/E of 32x (2024 net profit) (valuation of US$1.3 billion) versus Pop Mart (P/E of 103x based on its 2024 net profit).
Lennar’s MRP Split-Off: Key Considerations, Risks, and Strategies for Odd-Lot and Hedged Positions
- LEN shareholders can exchange stock for MRP at a 6.38% premium, with an upper limit of 4.1367 MRP shares per LEN share.
- Odd-lot holders (99 shares or less) are prioritized and exempt from proration; oversubscription is expected, applicable to odd-lot positions only.
- The final exchange ratio is determined by VWAP from November 3-5; borrow risk for MRP exists, potentially impacting hedged positions.
A/H Premium Tracker (2 Wks to 10 Oct 2025): Beautiful Skew But Trade Tantrums Again
- “Beautiful Skew” showed up again across the long holiday. Hs on average outperformed As by 1.57% over the 29-30 Sep and 9-10 Oct period.
- Last week’s short reco on China Merchants Bank H (3968 HK) saw the H-share OUTperform its A by 2.52% and it outright rose just over 1%. Meh.
- The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Pairs Monitor are both there – free – for all SK readers.
LG Electronics India IPO : Strong Debut Expected. Market Cap May Top Parent’s
- LG Electronics India (123D IN) debuts today and is poised for a strong listing pop, supported by record institutional oversubscription and robust grey market premiums.
- Retail investor shares saw a modest 3.5x subscription, underscoring the challenge of a billion-dollar IPO with a 35% retail allocation, which necessitated a steep pricing discount.
- Post-Debut, LGEIL’s likely market Cap at around USD11.5 bn could surpass its parent, despite 85% parent stake and USD1.3 bn raised from offer for sale of shares in IPO .
BYD (1211 HK) Tactical Outlook: Bottoming, But Wait to Buy The Dips…
- As discussed in our previous BYD insight on October 3, the stock is oversold and could start a rally soon.
- BYD (1211 HK) was heavily overbought at its peak in mid-2025, then declined >30% in a few months. It’s oversold.
- However at the moment our model has identified the current short-term trend pattern as bearish: a 1-2 weeks rally can happen, but then the stock will pullback again. Caution advised.
HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (2wks To 10 Oct 2025); Big Pre/Post Holiday Flows. NB 2x as Big.
- Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes just over US$21bn a day in the four days spanning the long holiday break. Big. Quite decent net buying flows too though the market fell.
- The recommended name was short Great Wall Motor (2333 HK). The stock was +1% over two weeks, but underperformed its H by 0.52%. Great Wall is down 4+% today.
- The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The Southbound Flow Monitor and AH Pairs Monitor are both there for all SK readers.
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