In today’s briefing:
- 7&I (3382 JP) – Alimentation Couche-Tard Walks, Lobbing a Letter Bomb
- PointsBet (PBH AU): Betr Firms “Superior Offer”. Expect The Board To Reject. Again
- Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP): Dead Money as Couche-Tard Unsurprisingly Walks
- Quiddity Leaderboard HSTECH Sep25: Final Expectations; ~US$1.6bn One-Way; Long Up 9% Vs Peers
- Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Sep25: Final Expectations; One Index Change Possible
- Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP): Global Index Inclusion Likely in August
- Geely (175 HK): Deliveries Up by 42% YoY in June – Rapid Growth to Go On in 3Q25
- Insiders Selling at Silicon2: Negative Impact on Share Price
- Hagihara Industries Co., Ltd. (7856 JP): Research Update
- Ahold Delhaize – The Bold Bet on Private Labels
7&I (3382 JP) – Alimentation Couche-Tard Walks, Lobbing a Letter Bomb
- Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN) which proposed a takeover to Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP) almost a year ago, has walked. They delivered a letter bomb on the way out.
- The letter is titled “ALIMENTATION COUCHE-TARD ANNOUNCES WITHDRAWAL OF PROPOSAL TO ACQUIRE SEVEN & I HOLDINGS DUE TO LACK OF ENGAGEMENT.” This is not the first time they have complained.
- The letter is not aimed at the 7&i Board or at ATD stakeholders. It is meant to drive a wedge between 7&i active shareholders and its management team. We’ll see.
PointsBet (PBH AU): Betr Firms “Superior Offer”. Expect The Board To Reject. Again
- Back on the 20th June, betr (BBT AU) tabled an all-scrip off-market Offer for PointsBet (PBH AU), with no minimum acceptance condition, which they considered superior to MIXI (2121 JP)‘s.
- Which was a bold statement, as 3.81 new betr shares, at the time, was equivalent to A$1.143/share versus MIXI’s A$1.20/share all-cash Offer. It’s now worth A$1.03/share.
- Last night, betr released its Bidder’s Statement. Terms are unchanged. Offer opens ~31st July. PointsBet was quick to point out, again, the current (low) value of the scrip terms.
Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP): Dead Money as Couche-Tard Unsurprisingly Walks
- Couche-Tard has withdrawn its offer for Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP) by unfairly laying the entire blame on the Board.
- The Board has made credible progress, but the jury is still out on whether the Board’s plan will generate returns. Shareholders remain sceptical as the shares have underperformed the index.
- In theory, the sell-off presents a buying opportunity (My SoTP valuation is JPY 2,376). However, the shares are likely to tread water as there are no near-term catalysts.
Quiddity Leaderboard HSTECH Sep25: Final Expectations; ~US$1.6bn One-Way; Long Up 9% Vs Peers
- The HSTECH Index tracks the performance of the top 30 technology companies listed in Hong Kong that have high business exposure to certain technology themes.
- In this insight, we take a look at our final expectations of index changes and the resultant capping flows for HSTECH index rebal event in September 2025.
- We see one low-conviction ADD/DEL and one significant float percentage revision which could collectively trigger roughly US$1.6bn in one-way index flows in September 2025.
Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Sep25: Final Expectations; One Index Change Possible
- The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of the top 50 “Mainland China” securities listed in Hong Kong.
- In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes and capping flows for HSCEI index rebal event in September 2025.
- We expect one ADD and one DEL for September 2025. We also estimate there to be US$269mn in one-way flows.
Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP): Global Index Inclusion Likely in August
- Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP)‘s stock price has more than doubled this year and the increased market cap could now result in a global index inclusion.
- Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP) has outperformed its peers by a BIG margin since its inclusion in the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) in September 2024.
- There appears to be significant positioning in the stock. Given the huge outperformance over the last few months, trim into strength.
Geely (175 HK): Deliveries Up by 42% YoY in June – Rapid Growth to Go On in 3Q25
- Geely announced that its deliveries grew by 42% YoY in June 2025.
- We expect BEV deliveries will continue to grow fast in 3Q25, but slow down from 4Q25.
- We believe the stock price will rise by 39% for the next twelve months.
Insiders Selling at Silicon2: Negative Impact on Share Price
- Insiders have been selling at Silicon2 (257720 KS). The company’s CEO Kim Seong-Woon and other related parties sold 0.37 million shares (0.6% stake) in June 2025.
- Overall, we are concerned about this recent insider selling at Silicon2. We are lowering our rating on Silicon2 to Negative over the next 6-12 months.
- Silicon2 needs to introduce new cosmetic brands such as Joseon Beauty, Round Lab, and Anua that could become very popular on a regular basis. However, that could be a challenge.
Hagihara Industries Co., Ltd. (7856 JP): Research Update
- Hagihara Industries [HI] (7856 JP) reported FY25 (Oct year-end) 1H earnings results on 9 June 2025, producing 1H operating profit [OP] of ¥899mil (-30.8% YoY) on sales of ¥16,400mil (+0.2% YoY) versus 1H OP guidance of ¥1,160mil (-10.7% YoY) on sales of ¥16,780mil (+2.5% YoY).
- Although 1H sales hit a record in semi-annual sales, 1H OP declined -30.8% YoY.
- HI forecasts FY25 RP of ¥2,500mil (+14.2% YoY) vs the RP target of ¥3,300mil.
Ahold Delhaize – The Bold Bet on Private Labels
- This Q1 2025 analysis of Ahold Delhaize presents both promising aspects and challenges facing the company.
- Ahold Delhaize reported solid financial performance, demonstrating resilience amidst a challenging macroeconomic environment characterized by geopolitical volatility, fluctuating tariffs, and job insecurity in markets such as the U.S. and parts of Europe.
- Ahold Delhaize achieved a 5% increase in net sales to EUR 23.3 billion, alongside a 3.8% underlying operating margin despite pressures from strategic price investments.
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