In today’s briefing:
- Shiseido (4911) | Progress on Reforms, but Growth Still Elusive
- CSI 300 (SHSZ300) Tactical Outlook Ahead of December Rebalance
- Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Dec25: Three Index Change Possible; ~US$264mn One-Way; Announcement Soon
- SENSEX Index Rebalance Preview: Tata Motors OUT; Indigo IN; Grasim – Dark Horse
- SHEIN Update: US$2 Bn Net, “Mid-Teens” Revenue Growth Targets Shared | New Challenges in France?
- Treasury Wine Estates (TWE AU): Penfolds Owner at 11x P/E and 7% Dividend Yield
- PhysicsWallah IPO: Driven by Passion to Educate; Sector Always in Controversy; No View on Valuation
- Physicswallah IPO – RHP Updates and Thoughts on Valuation
- Beijing Roborock (688169.SS): 3Q25 Review: Turn Around Delayed Further
- SRS Holdings (8163 JP): 1H FY03/26 flash update
Shiseido (4911) | Progress on Reforms, but Growth Still Elusive
- Shiseido’s Q3 revenue rose 4.6% YoY to ¥224bn, marking its first growth in three quarters, though full-year sales guidance was cut 3%.
- Profitability remained pressured by tariffs and Drunk Elephant weakness; product margins fell 340bps YoY, but SG&A improvements limited overall margin decline to 80bps.
- Management maintained core OP profit guidance and continued executing structural reforms, achieving ¥21bn cost savings YTD, with deeper efficiency cuts planned through 2026.
CSI 300 (SHSZ300) Tactical Outlook Ahead of December Rebalance
- As Brian Freitas recently outlined: the CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300) will undergo its semi-annual review by the end of November 2025, there could be profit-taking as we near that date.
- In our previous insight we flagged potential downside tail risk. While the index hasn’t fallen since our warning, this doesn’t mean the risk has dissipated.
- Our profit target model (the “go SHORT” model) is showing a rare pattern with very few rallies, severely limited upside (less than 1.5%) and an 80% reversal probability.Bearish.
Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Dec25: Three Index Change Possible; ~US$264mn One-Way; Announcement Soon
- The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of the top 50 “Mainland China” securities listed in Hong Kong.
- The official index changes and indicative weights for the December 2025 index rebal event will be announced publicly after the close on Friday 21st November 2025.
- We continue to expect three index changes for December 2025 and we estimate there to be capping flows of US$264mn one-way.
SENSEX Index Rebalance Preview: Tata Motors OUT; Indigo IN; Grasim – Dark Horse
- With the review period complete, there could be one change for the S&P BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX) at the December rebalance.
- Following the demerger of the Commercial Vehicle business, the drop in market cap for Tata Motors (TTMT IN) could result in index deletion.
- InterGlobe Aviation Ltd (INDIGO IN) is a potential inclusion to the index, but there is a small possibility of Grasim Industries (GRASIM IN) being added to the index instead.
SHEIN Update: US$2 Bn Net, “Mid-Teens” Revenue Growth Targets Shared | New Challenges in France?
- Reportedly, SHEN recently shared FY25 targets of US$2 bn Net, “mid-teens” sales growth
- SHEIN faces familiar issues in France, where the company has just opened a physical store
- The release of new FY25 financial targets suggest SHEIN is progressing towards an IPO
Treasury Wine Estates (TWE AU): Penfolds Owner at 11x P/E and 7% Dividend Yield
Treasury Wine Estates (TWE AU — US$3.0 billion) is one of the world’s largest wine producers globally. And it’s one of the very few large companies in Australia trading at a reasonable valuation multiple.
It started as the wine division of brewery giant Forster’s Group. From the 1990s onwards, Foster’s acquired vineyards and brands such as Penfolds, Lindeman’s and Beringer.
But throughout the 2000s, this wine division underperformed, draining cash from Foster’s highly profitable beer business. So in 2011, it was eventually spun off into a separately listed entity called Treasury Wine Estates (TWE).
PhysicsWallah IPO: Driven by Passion to Educate; Sector Always in Controversy; No View on Valuation
- Physicswallah Limited (2076103D IN) IPO opens today – 11 Nov 2025.The issue is a combination of fresh issue of INR 31 billion and offer for sale of INR 3.8 billion.
- In this insight we discuss about the company, the industry, past controversies in the sector across major players.
- We finally provide rationale why we do now know what valuation multiple to assign given the various factors.
Physicswallah IPO – RHP Updates and Thoughts on Valuation
- Physicswallah Is looking to raise about US$434m in its upcoming India IPO.
- Physicswallah Ltd (PWL) offers test preparation courses for competitive examinations, and other courses such as for upskilling, across 13 education categories, including JEE, NEET, and UPSC, among others.
- We have looked at the company’s past performance in our earlier notes. In this note we talk about the RHP updates and provide our thoughts on valuations.
Beijing Roborock (688169.SS): 3Q25 Review: Turn Around Delayed Further
- Margins yet to recover – 3Q25 profitability remained under pressure from China promotions and early Vietnam cost drag.
- Strong topline – revenue +61 % YoY, driven by broad-based global demand.
- Recovery deferred – margin inflection likely only after efficiency gains and tariff easing.
SRS Holdings (8163 JP): 1H FY03/26 flash update
- Revenue increased to JPY37.2bn (+18.2% YoY), driven by new store openings and M&A activity in FY03/25.
- Operating profit reached JPY1.6bn (+1.0% YoY), despite higher raw material and personnel costs impacting profitability.
- The SRS group opened 13 restaurants, closed 18, and acquired six through M&A, ending with 781 restaurants.
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