Daily Brief Consumer: Sun Corp, Soft99 Corp, Fast Retailing, Yum China Holdings , Dickson Concepts Intl, Geely Auto, Trent Ltd, Maruti Suzuki India, Guming Holdings and more

• Today after the close, Value Act reported that it owned 7.87% of shares outstanding in Sun Corp (6736 JP) and it may make proposals to management. 
• This has been trading cheaply (and I pointed it out on 13 Aug and 12 Sep). Cellebrite DI (CLBT US) is up 35% in those 8 weeks. Sun Corp +50%.
• ValueAct had owned 4.9+% for at least a few months before, but now it has gone public. They were likely in already under a different name in March, now public.

• The Soft99 Corp (4464 JP) Board has responded to Effissimo’s allegations. As expected, the Board accuses Effissimo of stating half-truths. 
• The Board’s missive indirectly suggests that incremental acceptances since October 1 have been tepid, KeePer has not tendered, and the MBO is struggling to meet the minimum tendering condition. 
• The two likeliest outcomes are 1) the MBO succeeds at current terms with KeePer likely joining BidCo, and 2) both offers fail. The risk/reward is unattractive at the last close. 

• Today after the close, Soft99 Corp (4464 JP)‘s Board issued a statement on “Our View” of Effissimo’s “Our View” Press Release. It’s bad.   
• But it points out the “weaknesses” that Effissimo’s Tender Offer Press Release had as it concerns a counterbid. And that tells you how Effissimo should amend their Tender Offer docs.
• Soft99 Board’s response is interesting. It asks Effissimo to not be coercive (i.e. bid for 50%+) in response to the MBO Bid’s coerciveness. Not a winning argument but not impossible.

• Guidance slightly ahead: FY8/26 outlook modestly above consensus at both revenue and operating profit, signalling continued steady growth.
• Global strength offsets China: Expanding international markets and yen tailwinds continue to drive profitability, plus an end to lingering China weakness?
• Valuation supportive: Trading below historical averages on EBIT and P/E, offering global exposure at a reasonable multiple.

• The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of the top 50 “Mainland China” securities listed in Hong Kong.
• In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes and capping flows for HSCEI index rebal event in December 2025.
• We expect three ADDs and three DELs for December 2025. We also estimate there to be US$303mn in one-way flows.

• Dickson Concepts trades at a 40% discount to net cash, with a market cap of HK$2bn and HK$3.3bn in cash.
• Founder Dickson Poon attempted privatization at HK$7.20/share, blocked by minority shareholders with 10.16% voting against.
• Business remains profitable despite downturn, with average net income of HK$200m and HK$1.4bn operating business value.

• Total deliveries grew by 35% YoY in Sep. 2025 and 43% YoY in 3Q25.
• BEV (Battery Electric Vehicle) deliveries were double of the same period last year.
• We believe the stock has at least 29% upside for next 12 months.

• Trent Ltd (TRENT IN) reported first half FY2026 revenue growth at 19%, well below the Street’s full-year consensus estimate of around 26%.
• With Zudio store expansion wave now maturing and no new growth engine of comparable scale yet in sight, revenue growth appears to be normalizing to the low double-digit range.
• In this context, the stock’s steep valuation multiples (78.5x 1-year forward P/E) look increasingly difficult to justify; as growth expectations are recalibrated a valuation de-rating seems likely.

• MSIL decisively shifted to UVs, reaching a 41% segment share in FY25 via key launches (Brezza, Grand Vitara), fundamentally reversing market share losses to become a full-range powerhouse.
• The revised GST flat rate of 40% for SUVs reduces prices and boosts affordability, creating a powerful dual catalyst with the festive season for significant volume and market share growth.
• Strong exports grew by 17.5%, establishing MSIL as the parent’s global EV hub and mitigating local risks, while high EBITDA margins (~13%) ensure profitable and sustainable growth.

Key points (machine generated)

• Hong Kong-listed bubble tea companies are seen as classic fad stocks, presenting short-selling opportunities.
• Guming is highlighted as the preferred choice for short-selling due to its available borrow, while Nayuki serves as a cautionary example of decline.
• The author compares the bubble tea trend to previous restaurant fads, indicating a pattern of declining growth and increased competition.

This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.