In today’s briefing:
- Tam Jai (2217 HK) Suspended: Expect Toridoll (3397 JP) To Make An Offer
- Proto Corp (4298) – MBO After Restatement Scandal Is Opportunistic at ¥2,100 (+64%)
- Tohto Suisan (8038 JP): Aso’s Unusual Tender Offer
- Ola Electric IPO Lockup – US$1.6bn+ Lockup Release
- Proto Corp (4298 JP): MBO Tender Offer Represents an All-Time High
- Guming Holdings IPO – Digestible Valuation from the Bottom End
- Trump Admin’s Tariff Headlines Obscure Suspension Of “De Minimis” Rule | Big Impact on SHEIN, Temu
- Tohto Suisan (8038 JP) – Aso Corp To Launch Tender Offer at ¥7,500/Share
- Guming IPO: The Good, The Bad and The Valuation. Is It Time to Sip or Skip?
- Multi Bintang Indonesia (MLBI IJ): Anticipating Strong Q4 FY24, 80% ROCE, and >9% Dividend Yield
Tam Jai (2217 HK) Suspended: Expect Toridoll (3397 JP) To Make An Offer
- Tam Jai International (2217 HK), an operator of Asia noodle specialty restaurants, is currently suspended pursuant to the Takeovers Code.
- On the 13th November 2024, Tam Jai announced 1H25 net profit – to 30th September 2024 – declined 55.8% yoy to HK$36.1mn, its lowest six-month tally since listing.
- Toridoll Holdings Corporation (3397 JP) controls 74.61% of Tam Jai. Expect a Scheme to unfold. An Offer price around HK$1.50/share would be welcome. That’s probably a stretch.
Proto Corp (4298) – MBO After Restatement Scandal Is Opportunistic at ¥2,100 (+64%)
- Proto Corp (4298 JP) is not the name on people’s lips, but everyone who knows cars in Japan knows this company. They have run car mags for decades.
- Now they do other things too but car magazines, websites, and associated data provision are worth 90% of OP. And they are ubiquitous, and growth has been good.
- Management forecasts for growth are a damp squib. This is opportunistic.
Tohto Suisan (8038 JP): Aso’s Unusual Tender Offer
- Tohto Suisan (8038 JP)‘s tender offer from Aso Corp is JPY7,500, a 39.1% premium to the last close. Tohto Suisan is currently in breach of the tradable share ratio.
- Unusually, the offer has no lower or upper limit. If the required ownership ratio is secured, Aso will implement squeeze-out procedures.
- While supportive, the Board has left the decision to accept or reject the offer at the shareholders’ discretion. The offer is attractive and represents an all-time high.
Ola Electric IPO Lockup – US$1.6bn+ Lockup Release
- Ola Electric (OLAELEC IN) raised around US$734m in its India IPO in August 2024. The lockup for its pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.
- Ola Electric Mobility is a vertically integrated pure EV player in India with manufacturing capabilities for EVs and EV components, including cells
- In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.
Proto Corp (4298 JP): MBO Tender Offer Represents an All-Time High
- Proto Corp (4298 JP) has recommended an MBO tender offer at JPY2,100, a 64.1% premium to the last close.
- The offer is attractive as it is above the midpoint of the target IFA’s DCF valuation range and 25% above the all-time high.
- Despite the presence of two substantial shareholders, an attractive offer suggests that this is a done deal. The tender offer ends on 21 March, with payment on 28 March
Guming Holdings IPO – Digestible Valuation from the Bottom End
- Guming Holdings (GUM HK) is looking to raise US$202m in its Hong Kong IPO. Guming Holdings (Guming) sells freshly-made beverages in China.
- Guming Holdings (Guming) sells freshly-made beverages in China. Guming focuses on the mid-priced freshly-made tea beverage market with product prices typically ranging between RMB10-18.
- In this note, we discuss our thoughts on valuation at the IPO price range.
Trump Admin’s Tariff Headlines Obscure Suspension Of “De Minimis” Rule | Big Impact on SHEIN, Temu
- By executive order, President Trump suspended section 321 (“de minimis“) imports on Feb 4th
- Direct-To-Consumer imports valued at < US$800 may no longer enter the US duty-free
- Added cost and new paperwork burden (both borne by US consumers) to hit SHEIN, Temu
Tohto Suisan (8038 JP) – Aso Corp To Launch Tender Offer at ¥7,500/Share
- 4+ years ago Aso Corp launched a Tender Offer to buy 33.4% or up to 100% of marine products wholesaler Tohto Suisan (8038 JP). They got just over a third.
- Then it became a zombie as I warned Tohto Suisan Partial Tender Offer – A Weird Tender Which Leads To Listed Zombie-Ism. But it moved around.
- Today, Aso announces a tender to take out minorities, almost all of whom are other corporate holders. It’s at a 39% premium and 1.2x book. It should get done.
Guming IPO: The Good, The Bad and The Valuation. Is It Time to Sip or Skip?
- Guming Holdings (GUM HK) is offering 158.6 million shares in a price range of HK$8.68 to HK$9.94 in its Hong Kong IPO aiming to raise up to HK$1.58 Bn.
- Despite outperforming peers in revenue and profit growth, Guming is grappling with a bleak macro environment, operational slowdowns, and intensified competition.
- Guming Holdings (GUM HK) ‘s faltering operating metrics for last reporting period cast doubt on its near-term growth and profitability outlook—leaving investors to ask: Sip or skip?
Multi Bintang Indonesia (MLBI IJ): Anticipating Strong Q4 FY24, 80% ROCE, and >9% Dividend Yield
- Multi Bintang Indonesia (MLBI IJ) saw significant inflection in Q3 FY24, with revenue and net profit growth of 21.9% and 35%, respectively. Strong growth is anticipated in Q4’s high season.
- Our confidence in MLBI’s Q4 stems from Bali’s impressive tourism statistics, registering a 17% YoY increase in Q3 FY24 and 19% YoY in Q4 FY24 (up to November).
- With a 10.4x FY24e PE valuation, over 9% dividend yield, and historical ROCEs surpassing 80%, we believe the share price is at a turning point.
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